Flood protection & Flood Management New Concepts for Security

Dutch examples

Global philosophy for flood protection and management in the NetherlandsKrystian PilarczykHydraulic Engineering InstituteRijkswaterstaat (Public Works Dpt.)Delft, the Netherlands

Short content of PP presentation

1. Introduction2. Brief history3. Basic principles of flood protection: Organisational and legal aspects Present approach and Safety Standards Future approach; ring dikes, probability of flooding/inundation and risk assessment; Space for rivers; Detention areas4. Technical approach of design and maintenance 5. Safety Assessment/monitoring and Maintenance 6. ConclusionsReferences and Bibliography (www.tawinfo.nl)

DevelopmentsLast decades: increase economical values and population in coastal/riverine areasLarge Disasters (Floods, Traffic, Planes, Fire, Earthquakes, Mud flow, etc.)Future developments: climate change, sea-level rising, soil subsidence, air/water pollutionBas Jonkman

We can not avoid the floodsbut we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage) Disaster 1953 in the NetherlandsWhy is flood defence important ?

Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

Flood events:

flood event

damage

victims

Sea 1953

( 1.500 106

1835

Meuse 1993

( 250 106

----

Rhine 1995

( 500 106

----

Meuse 1995

( 165 106

----

Rainfall 1998

( 1.100 106

----

Principal measuresWatersystem in NL

Watersystem & Rainfall problems in NLSeaStoragelandStorageStorageRiverPolderwaterwaterwater

The history of flood defencefloodingmounds (higher grounds to escape)dikessettlementdrainage systems storm-surge barriersoccupation floodplains (warning systems, evacuation plans and actions)alternatives (i.e. floating objects/houses)

Historical developments: Dutch history and (possible) future(subsidence as an extreme event !?)levelexpectedSea-level riseTime (year)subsidence- low-lying country -The Netherlands

highest flood level in 1876

metres above Datum

8

6

4

2

0

dyke reinforcementin the 1990s

dyke level raising in the 20th century

dyke in 1880

dyke in 1876

dyke in 1579

Dyke construction over the centuries

clay

sand

berm

Examples of defence systems in NL

Dutch main rivers

General hydraulic boundary conditions

external driving forces: climate, Rhine, sea level, landsubsidencescenario T 0C Qrijn sea level rise trend +1 0C 16.000 m3/s + 20cmworse +2 0C 18.000 m3/s + 60cmextreme +4 0C 20.000 m3/s + 110cmland subsidence 2100 setting of peat and clay tectonics mining0.1 - 0.8 mDesign discharges of the RheinuncertaintiesEven 18 000 or 20 000 m3/s ?

Flood protection in NLsome factsSafety Standards NLFlood Protection Law (1996): safety levels (probabilities) every 5 years, evaluation boundary conditions ( design discharges) and safety2001, 2006: monitoring roundsRhine design discharge higher4e Policy Document on Water Management: heigthening dikes only a last resort. Instead: make room for rivers

Threatens & Loadingsalso animals

Flooding is one of the main causes of loss of life and loss of property and income in the world and, thus a major drain on welfare of people and an important cause of poverty

Extreme long dry period may induce failure of dikes and innundationalsoIn the night from 25 to 26 august 2003 the regional dikes near Wilnis collapsed.

Also extreme event !

Our contribution to problems(urbanisation)City of Arnhem todayCity of Arnhem in 1830

The two main items in flood protection are:

designing and construction a flood defence system (physical infrastructure)

designing and building a flood management system (organisation, information and tools) Natural system Infrastructure: dikes, dams, etc. Observation & communication system Professional system Users & beneficiariesWith following interactions:

Flood defence systemphysical system to deal with river discharges and/or storm surges up to a given frequency with limited consequences

dike (height, stability)polder (spatial planning, local measures)river bed (widening floodplain, reducing resistance, deepening channels, etc)river system (reforestation, retention+nature, storage reservoirs, flooding sequence)

Flood management systemobservations (rainfall, run off, discharges)prediction (short term, long term, models)communication (all kinds)decision (operation storage, retention, flood sequence, evacuation, emergency measures)implementationevaluation

Five systems have to interact:natural systeminfrastructure, dikes, dams, etc,observation & communication systemprofessional systemusers & beneficiaries

Some conclusions on flood protection systems:

The technical aspects of the natural systems and the flood defence system are usually well recognisedThe flood management aspects are less well treated (observations, models, professional education, political system/awareness)The building of a flood protection system takes a long time

Questions from practical engineers and policy makersYou can get any answer you want!How uncertain is the result?What is the real probability?Make subjective part visible!How to deal with expert opinions? I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions

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Sheet2

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eq(5)

eq(4)

eq(3)

Developments in water sectordevelopment water supply:sea level risingincrease of fluctuations in river dischargesincrease of fluctuations and intensity of precipitationland subsidencedevelopment water demand:changes in nature areaschanges in urbanizationchanges in agriculturechanges in other forms of land use

Flood related issuesforecasting flood levels (Flood Early Warning Systems)risk assessment & safety standardsimproving crisis management plansthe relation between spatial planning and flood management (how to prevent development of flood prone areas?)distribution over bifurcations

Flood Forecastingwater level Rhine at Lobith (border)> 14.00 m and expected to rise above 15.00 m +NAPat least twice a dayfor navigationpopulationflood management

Prediction of floods and warning systemRhein catchments

_1031573605.doc

Trends in Flood ManagementFrom water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approachFrom a dike section to a ring-dike approachFrom flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disasterFrom dike heightening to making space for waterImportance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and disseminationFlood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoringSustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation

Risk of floodingProbability of failureStructureOperation/human failureManagementConsequences of failurecasualtieseconomic damageRisk = probability (Pfailure) x consequencesactual1/20 1/501/1001/500future1/1000or moreSafety standardsworldwide

Reducing Pfailure by :

proper spatial planning (including space for rivers, retention basins, etc)safer dam or dike (including periodical safety assessment of water defences)Reducing consequences :minimize casualties due to proper warning system and evacuation plansreduce damage by proper planning and building/construction regulations

Example:

Risk = probability (Pfailure) x consequences

Is (continuous) dike heightning a solution ???The NetherlandsConsequences becoming higher and higher: (usually) limited space for dike hightening- landscape- nature-historical values

Reconstruction/heightening of dikes not (always) the best solution Consequences of flooding might increaseStudies are undertaken on measures to reduce the effects of an increase in discharge peaks of the rivers and sea level rise, in order to maintain safety without hightening dikes, taking into account the interest of nature, landscape and other functions (Space for Rivers& Living with water)

Future alternativesSpace for riversNature restoriationRetention basins

Space (room) for RiversReduction of flood levels:

Effect of measures

VietnamHouses on pilesFloating hotelsLiving with floods - Alternative use of flood plainsFloating houses

Floods and Flood Risk in NetherlandsScope (goal) of Flood Risk approach:from present design (permissible) water levels per section- into flood (inundation) probability per dike ring- into flood (inundation) risk per dike ring= (probability x consequences) per dike ringActual approachRisk = (Pfailure) x consequences

Ring dike approach and examples of dike ringsRisk=probability x consequencesRisk = (Pfailure) x consequences

Safety StandardsEconomic optimizationRisk = Probability x Consequences

Safety StandardsDesign frequency

Vietnam, China, etc.1/20 actual1/501/1001/5001/1000

Future; Risk-based approach:probability x consequences (???!!!)

Aspects:Fresh water (rivers)Salt water (sea)Low-lying land or not ?Cities (population)Economic areas (industry)

However, there are also other failure modesActual (past) design philosophy and minimum profile of river dikesbased on design water level

Flood (innundation) Riskintegrated approach to water defencesinnundationfailure mechanismshuman failuregeotechnical failureWave attackcoastal erosionetc.g= R L > 1.0

Present and Future approach/elaborationWater levelsLoad modelsResistance modelsA set of safety margins

Improved load modelsImproved resistance modelsConsequence models Statistical modelsReliability and Risk CalculationsOptimisation/comparison with targets

However, models and data are still insufficient Type of uncertainty:g= R L > 1.0* unpredictability of nature* lack of data, lack of knowledge

Dike strengthening: not only technical solutions1 = do nothing2 = dike hightning3 = offshore wave dissipation4 = higher foreshore5 = milder outer slope6 = roughness on slope

7 = apply a berm8 = vertical wall on the crest9 = allow larger overtopping; store water behind the dike/pump awayBut also integrated/multifunctional solutions

Functional conflicts and designlivingtransportnaturehistorical values

Economic optimalisation (1)Example: Lay-outLongitudinal cross-section(dike heights)riverSection 2Section 1P1 > P2

Economic optimalisation (2)Example: Lay-outLongitudinal cross-section (dike hights)riverSection 1Section 2Dike heightning:inundation probability decreases Risk increases

It is an engineering art to find a balance between all functional requirements and economic possibilitiesDesign process

Overview measures - Technical Ecological Social Economic which must be defined for specific region and project

Conflict with livingLandscape requirementsGrass matsRoot system

Conflict of functions; some examplesHistorical values

Safety assessement

Safety Assessment vs. maintenance

New approach and regulations

DIVISION OF TASKS BETWEEN ADMINISTRATIVE ORGANSconcerning protection against flooding and flood managementStateProvincesMunicipalitiesWater boardsDuring Flood event:

Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

Monitoring: Module 1

Flood

Prediction

What if: scenarios:flooding: Module 2damage: Module 3evacuation

Information supply

Risk Analysis

HIS

Operational situation

Planning

National

Regional

Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

More structured information is needed:Developing the

Hoogwater Informatie Systeem

Flood Management System

Example of productsPolicy-making risk assessmentscenarios for extreme events which damage can occurphysical effects of floodsphysical planningensurancesOperational use during floods (i.e. evacuation)HISHighwater Information System(Flood Management System)

Damage assessmentTwo elements: Economic damage assessmentLife safety assessmentUsed in risk analysisBased on output of flood simulations

Economic Damage Assessment

Loss of life estimationMortality estimated as a function of flood- and system characteristics3 areas:breachRapidly risingOther causesCorrection factors:Building qualityEmergency response and rescueShelter: high grounds and buildings

lijnelement

Locatie bres

Effectgebied stroomsnelheden

Hoge stijgsnelheden

Overige oorzaken

Slachtoffers door:

Flood risk assessmentCombineProbability of floodingFlood simulationDamage assessment

How to present results? (to decision-makers, society)Current project:Veiligheid van Nederland in Kaart (FLORIS) = Safety mapping for NetherlandsFull assessment of failure probabilities multiple dike ringsSpecial attention for hydraulic structuresHow to deal with uncertaintiesFurther development of damage assessmentBasis for ongoing safety discussion

Bridge betweenResearch and PracticeCountriesState and Public(communication)

Transfer know-how (technology transfer) Capacity buildingEducationCommunicationPublic awarenessSupplementary items:

Risk-based design/safety approach is and needs advanced technology !!!!

(practical) problems vs. economy

Geotechnical (in-)stability and piping

Trends in Flood ManagementFrom water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approachFrom a dike section to a ring-dike approachFrom flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disasterFrom dike heightening to making space for waterImportance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and disseminationFlood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoringSustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation

In conclusion:

Questions from practical engineers and policy makersYou can get any answer you want!How uncertain is the result?What is the real probability?Make subjective part visible!How to deal with expert opinions? I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions

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90.08046847860.00007233050.1213068773-1.07142857140.24261226390.0000014907-1-5

9.20.08664723710.00023072960.1452317933-10.29045961480.0000039718-0.8-4.8

9.40.09282562020.00067942470.1670591262-0.92857142860.33410808460.0000101677-0.6-4.6

9.60.09893847490.00184686790.1846357736-0.85714285710.36924653860.0000250086-0.4-4.4

9.80.10491722020.00463432790.1960692843-0.78571428570.39207946930.0000590993-0.2-4.2

100.11069106130.01073480410.2000670925-0.71428571430.40.00013418510-4

10.20.11618833790.02295397630.1961860951-0.64285714290.39207946930.0002927210.2-3.8

10.40.12133797380.04530834270.1849300314-0.57142857140.36924653860.00061352430.4-3.6

10.60.12607098610.08255718310.1676717854-0.50.33410808460.00123548620.6-3.4

10.80.1303220110.13886346470.146425012-0.42857142860.29045961480.00239040920.8-3.2

110.13403079940.2156143040.1235279313-0.35714285710.24261226390.00444359861-3

11.20.13714363450.30904632410.1013186701-0.28571428570.19470090240.00793643791.2-2.8

11.40.13961462470.40890840480.0818717107-0.21428571430.15012443950.01361898191.4-2.6

11.60.14140682910.49944185340.0668344127-0.14285714290.11121492020.02245390511.6-2.4

11.80.14249317580.56311911730.0573640633-0.07142857140.07915947960.0355686471.8-2.2

120.14285714290.58610044440.054134113300.05413411330.05413411332-2

12.20.14249317580.56311911730.05736406330.07142857140.0355686470.07915947962.2-1.8

12.40.14140682910.49944185340.06683441270.14285714290.02245390510.11121492022.4-1.6

12.60.13961462470.40890840480.08187171070.21428571430.01361898190.15012443952.6-1.4

12.80.13714363450.30904632410.10131867010.28571428570.00793643790.19470090242.8-1.2

130.13403079940.2156143040.12352793130.35714285710.00444359860.24261226393-1

13.20.1303220110.13886346470.1464250120.42857142860.00239040920.29045961483.2-0.8

13.40.12607098610.08255718310.16767178540.50.00123548620.33410808463.4-0.6

13.60.12133797380.04530834270.18493003140.57142857140.00061352430.36924653863.6-0.4

13.80.11618833790.02295397630.19618609510.64285714290.0002927210.39207946933.8-0.2

140.11069106130.01073480410.20006709250.71428571430.00013418510.440

14.20.10491722020.00463432790.19606928430.78571428570.00005909930.39207946934.20.2

14.40.09893847490.00184686790.18463577360.85714285710.00002500860.36924653864.40.4

14.60.09282562020.00067942470.16705912620.92857142860.00001016770.33410808464.60.6

14.80.08664723710.00023072960.145231793310.00000397180.29045961484.80.8

150.08046847860.00007233050.12130687731.07142857140.00000149070.242612263951

15.20.07435001730.00002093130.097350721.14285714290.00000053750.19470090245.21.2

15.40.06834717510.00000559150.07506231291.21428571430.00000018620.15012443955.41.4

15.60.06250924820.00000137880.05560749111.28571428570.0000000620.11121492025.61.6

15.80.05687903170.00000031390.03957974971.35714285710.00000001980.07915947965.81.8

160.05149254120.0000000660.02706705971.42857142860.00000000610.054134113362

16.20.04637892390.00000001280.01778432441.50.00000000180.0355686476.22.2

16.40.04156054390.00000000230.01122695281.57142857140.00000000050.02245390516.42.4

16.60.03705322280.00000000040.0068094911.64285714290.00000000010.01361898196.62.6

16.80.03286661410.00000000010.0039682191.714285714300.00793643796.82.8

170.029004685200.00222179931.785714285700.004443598673

17.20.025466282800.00119520461.857142857100.00239040927.23.2

17.40.022245756100.00061774311.928571428600.00123548627.43.4

17.60.019333611900.0003067621200.00061352437.63.6

17.80.016717180600.00014636052.071428571400.0002927217.83.8

180.014381271400.00006709252.142857142900.000134185184

18.20.012308800800.00002954972.214285714300.00005909938.24.2

18.40.010481378800.00001250432.285714285700.00002500868.44.4

18.60.008879843300.00000508392.357142857100.00001016778.64.6

18.80.007484734400.00000198592.428571428600.00000397188.84.8

Sheet1

A

B

Sheet2

Sheet3

eq(5)

eq(4)

eq(3)

Conclusive remarksdesign on risk based principlesinherent and epistemological uncertainties expert opinions engineers not trainedcommunication and presentation

Chart4

0.00000397180

0.00001016770

0.00002500860

0.00005909930

0.00013418510

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A

B

Sheet1

200121014

eq(5)eq(4)eq(3)2.8AB11

5.20.007484734400.0000019859-2.42857142860.00000397180-4.8-8.8

5.40.008879843300.0000050839-2.35714285710.00001016770-4.6-8.6

5.60.010481378800.0000125043-2.28571428570.00002500860-4.4-8.4

5.80.012308800800.0000295497-2.21428571430.00005909930-4.2-8.2

60.014381271400.0000670925-2.14285714290.00013418510-4-8

6.20.016717180600.0001463605-2.07142857140.0002927210-3.8-7.8

6.40.019333611900.0003067621-20.00061352430-3.6-7.6

6.60.022245756100.0006177431-1.92857142860.00123548620-3.4-7.4

6.80.025466282800.0011952046-1.85714285710.00239040920-3.2-7.2

70.029004685200.0022217993-1.78571428570.00444359860-3-7

7.20.03286661410.00000000010.003968219-1.71428571430.00793643790-2.8-6.8

7.40.03705322280.00000000040.006809491-1.64285714290.01361898190.0000000001-2.6-6.6

7.60.04156054390.00000000230.0112269528-1.57142857140.02245390510.0000000005-2.4-6.4

7.80.04637892390.00000001280.0177843244-1.50.0355686470.0000000018-2.2-6.2

80.05149254120.0000000660.0270670597-1.42857142860.05413411330.0000000061-2-6

8.20.05687903170.00000031390.0395797497-1.35714285710.07915947960.0000000198-1.8-5.8

8.40.06250924820.00000137880.0556074911-1.28571428570.11121492020.000000062-1.6-5.6

8.60.06834717510.00000559150.0750623129-1.21428571430.15012443950.0000001862-1.4-5.4

8.80.07435001730.00002093130.09735072-1.14285714290.19470090240.0000005375-1.2-5.2

90.08046847860.00007233050.1213068773-1.07142857140.24261226390.0000014907-1-5

9.20.08664723710.00023072960.1452317933-10.29045961480.0000039718-0.8-4.8

9.40.09282562020.00067942470.1670591262-0.92857142860.33410808460.0000101677-0.6-4.6

9.60.09893847490.00184686790.1846357736-0.85714285710.36924653860.0000250086-0.4-4.4

9.80.10491722020.00463432790.1960692843-0.78571428570.39207946930.0000590993-0.2-4.2

100.11069106130.01073480410.2000670925-0.71428571430.40.00013418510-4

10.20.11618833790.02295397630.1961860951-0.64285714290.39207946930.0002927210.2-3.8

10.40.12133797380.04530834270.1849300314-0.57142857140.36924653860.00061352430.4-3.6

10.60.12607098610.08255718310.1676717854-0.50.33410808460.00123548620.6-3.4

10.80.1303220110.13886346470.146425012-0.42857142860.29045961480.00239040920.8-3.2

110.13403079940.2156143040.1235279313-0.35714285710.24261226390.00444359861-3

11.20.13714363450.30904632410.1013186701-0.28571428570.19470090240.00793643791.2-2.8

11.40.13961462470.40890840480.0818717107-0.21428571430.15012443950.01361898191.4-2.6

11.60.14140682910.49944185340.0668344127-0.14285714290.11121492020.02245390511.6-2.4

11.80.14249317580.56311911730.0573640633-0.07142857140.07915947960.0355686471.8-2.2

120.14285714290.58610044440.054134113300.05413411330.05413411332-2

12.20.14249317580.56311911730.05736406330.07142857140.0355686470.07915947962.2-1.8

12.40.14140682910.49944185340.06683441270.14285714290.02245390510.11121492022.4-1.6

12.60.13961462470.40890840480.08187171070.21428571430.01361898190.15012443952.6-1.4

12.80.13714363450.30904632410.10131867010.28571428570.00793643790.19470090242.8-1.2

130.13403079940.2156143040.12352793130.35714285710.00444359860.24261226393-1

13.20.1303220110.13886346470.1464250120.42857142860.00239040920.29045961483.2-0.8

13.40.12607098610.08255718310.16767178540.50.00123548620.33410808463.4-0.6

13.60.12133797380.04530834270.18493003140.57142857140.00061352430.36924653863.6-0.4

13.80.11618833790.02295397630.19618609510.64285714290.0002927210.39207946933.8-0.2

140.11069106130.01073480410.20006709250.71428571430.00013418510.440

14.20.10491722020.00463432790.19606928430.78571428570.00005909930.39207946934.20.2

14.40.09893847490.00184686790.18463577360.85714285710.00002500860.36924653864.40.4

14.60.09282562020.00067942470.16705912620.92857142860.00001016770.33410808464.60.6

14.80.08664723710.00023072960.145231793310.00000397180.29045961484.80.8

150.08046847860.00007233050.12130687731.07142857140.00000149070.242612263951

15.20.07435001730.00002093130.097350721.14285714290.00000053750.19470090245.21.2

15.40.06834717510.00000559150.07506231291.21428571430.00000018620.15012443955.41.4

15.60.06250924820.00000137880.05560749111.28571428570.0000000620.11121492025.61.6

15.80.05687903170.00000031390.03957974971.35714285710.00000001980.07915947965.81.8

160.05149254120.0000000660.02706705971.42857142860.00000000610.054134113362

16.20.04637892390.00000001280.01778432441.50.00000000180.0355686476.22.2

16.40.04156054390.00000000230.01122695281.57142857140.00000000050.02245390516.42.4

16.60.03705322280.00000000040.0068094911.64285714290.00000000010.01361898196.62.6

16.80.03286661410.00000000010.0039682191.714285714300.00793643796.82.8

170.029004685200.00222179931.785714285700.004443598673

17.20.025466282800.00119520461.857142857100.00239040927.23.2

17.40.022245756100.00061774311.928571428600.00123548627.43.4

17.60.019333611900.0003067621200.00061352437.63.6

17.80.016717180600.00014636052.071428571400.0002927217.83.8

180.014381271400.00006709252.142857142900.000134185184

18.20.012308800800.00002954972.214285714300.00005909938.24.2

18.40.010481378800.00001250432.285714285700.00002500868.44.4

18.60.008879843300.00000508392.357142857100.00001016778.64.6

18.80.007484734400.00000198592.428571428600.00000397188.84.8

Sheet1

A

B

Sheet2

Sheet3

eq(5)

eq(4)

eq(3)

There is no golden receipt against floodsThere is no absolute safety for everCoping with Floods is an international problemWe have to joint the forces and exchange our experienceConclusionsLook also to: www.tawinfo.nlSelect: english, downloads

www.tawinfo.nl

We can not avoid the floodsbut we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage) Conclusion

Thank you for your attention

www.tawinfo.nl

The endQuestions and discussion