11

Foreign Policy Foreign Policy

• (1). Outline history of(1). Outline history of US Foreign Policy (FP)US Foreign Policy (FP) fromfrom isolationismisolationism thru thru Cold WarCold War toto post-post-Cold WarCold War era era..

• (2). Define the following key (2). Define the following key FPFP terms: terms: Monroe Doctrine, globalism, containment Monroe Doctrine, globalism, containment Truman Doctrine, NATO, 3rd World, détente, enlargementTruman Doctrine, NATO, 3rd World, détente, enlargement,, and and neo-neo-

isolationismisolationism. . • (3). Define(3). Define national interestnational interest;; contrast decision making for contrast decision making for FPFP w/that for w/that for domestic domestic policypolicy..• (4). Discuss the(4). Discuss the enumeratedenumerated & & implied powersimplied powers set by the set by the ConstitutionConstitution for making for making FP.FP.• (5). Examine the (5). Examine the inherent advantageinherent advantage of the of the President President in making in making foreign policyforeign policy..• (6). Outline the role of the(6). Outline the role of the White House, the Bureaucracy, the CongressWhite House, the Bureaucracy, the Congress, , and and the the PublicPublic

in shaping American in shaping American foreign policy. foreign policy.• (7). Discuss the(7). Discuss the US National SecurityUS National Security structure and keystructure and key DOD DOD organizationsorganizations & leaders& leaders..• (8). Discuss Foreign Policy challenges facing the U.S. in the Post-Cold War era.(8). Discuss Foreign Policy challenges facing the U.S. in the Post-Cold War era.• (9). Assess the future direction of(9). Assess the future direction of US National Security PolicyUS National Security Policy andand Military StrategyMilitary Strategy,,

required militaryrequired military Force Levels, Mission Creep, Multi-nationalism, WMDForce Levels, Mission Creep, Multi-nationalism, WMD, , andand BMDBMD..• (10). Discuss current foreign policy issues and their political impact on the U.S.(10). Discuss current foreign policy issues and their political impact on the U.S.

- - War on Terrorism; - War with Iraq;War on Terrorism; - War with Iraq; - North Korea; - Arab-Israeli conflict - North Korea; - Arab-Israeli conflict - Domestic economic slump; - the uncertain future; - Domestic economic slump; - the uncertain future;

22

1798-1941 The Isolationist Era

1942-1945 World War II (start of “Globalism”)

1990-present Post-Cold War

1946-1989 The Cold War

US Foreign Policy (FP)A Brief HistoryBrief History

New category after 9/11/2001

Let’s examine these periods in greater detail

33

Brief History of U.S. Foreign PolicyBrief History of U.S. Foreign Policy

• Isolationism*A foreign policy built on the principle of avoiding formal military and

political alliances with other countries.

• The Isolationist Era– 1st 150 yrs of US History

• Adherence to guidance of Washington’s Farwell address• Stressed avoiding political connections overseas• Pursue commercial trade ties only

– US militarily weak & focused on expansion westward– Not interested in global role (2 oceans of separation)

• What FP Doctrine* asserted US interests for the first time outside America, primarily throughout Western Hemisphere (1823)?

44

The Monroe Doctrine

A basic principle of U.S. foreign policy that dates back to a warning President James Monroe issued in 1823 that the United States would resist further European efforts to intervene in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.

55

Monroe DoctrineMonroe Doctrine (1823) (1823)• Invoked 1895: early Invoked 1895: early FPFP involvement outside US involvement outside US

– AimAim: Protect US interest in : Protect US interest in Western HemisphereWestern Hemisphere

• US involvement overseas primarily in US involvement overseas primarily in LATAMLATAM

– US Military Intervention escalated beginning in 1900:

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World War IWorld War I• US deviated from Isolationism briefly during WWI

WW1 (W. Wilson)=> make world “safe for democracy” After WW1=> isolationism returns w/vengeance Senate rejects League of Nations & Versailles treaty Sets the stage for next global war => ?

77

World War II

• WWII=> US stays out of War as Hitler first attacks– Why does US change its mind about involvement?

88

““Air Raid Pearl Harbor” Air Raid Pearl Harbor” 7 December 19417 December 1941

Impact on American Public Opinion?

Following WWII=> US rethinks previous isolationism

99

Globalism EraGlobalism Era => => The The Cold WarCold War

• GlobalismGlobalism::– US should be prepared to use military force around the US should be prepared to use military force around the

globe to protect its political & economic interestsglobe to protect its political & economic interests

• Following WWII => Following WWII => who emerges as primary who emerges as primary thereat to US political & military interest?thereat to US political & military interest?

• Presidential doctrine formulated as a result?Presidential doctrine formulated as a result?• Truman DoctrineTruman Doctrine::

– US would actively oppose communists’ attempts to US would actively oppose communists’ attempts to overthrow or conquer non-communist nationsoverthrow or conquer non-communist nations

• US Foreign Policy that emerged from the US Foreign Policy that emerged from the Truman Truman DoctrineDoctrine?* ?*

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Containment

A bedrock principle of U.S. foreign policy from mid 1940s to early 1990s that emphasized the need

to contain any further Soviet territorial & communist ideological expansion.

What was the economic instrument of Containment?

Marshall Plan: US commitment to rebuild Europe$100 Billion+ appropriated for task in today’s $$$ Soviets initially invited to participate (reaction?)

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IDEOLOGY

GEO-POLITICAL

& STRATEGIC

MILITARY

Soviet Threat

Containment

What was the military instrument of Containment?

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NATO

Cold War Military Alliances

WarsawPact

1313

Cold WarCold War Heats Up Heats Up

• As Soviets become more aggressiveAs Soviets become more aggressive– US becomes more concernedUS becomes more concerned

• Conduct major Conduct major National SecurityNational Security reassessment reassessment– NSC-68NSC-68: : National Security StrategyNational Security Strategy for for ContainmentContainment

• Concludes a major increase in Concludes a major increase in defense spendingdefense spending required required

• Truman administration balks at high price tagTruman administration balks at high price tag– SoSo NSC-68NSC-68 filed in bottom drawer of someone’s safe filed in bottom drawer of someone’s safe

– Then what Then what major military eventmajor military event occurred in June 1950? occurred in June 1950?

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Korean WarKorean War

From US perspective, Soviets engaged indirectly through NK & China

1515

US versus USSR- US versus USSR- The Indirect ApproachThe Indirect Approach• Competition at margins=>Competition at margins=> the the 3rd World3rd World

– US primary US primary Foreign PolicyForeign Policy goal: goal: • Prevent potential “Prevent potential “falling dominoes” falling dominoes”

• Major test of this goal: Major test of this goal: Vietnam War:Vietnam War:– US US ((IkeIke)) supports French in supports French in SE AsiaSE Asia – AimAim: : Contain Soviet expansion in Contain Soviet expansion in SEASEA

• US view of most US view of most global crisesglobal crises & conflicts? & conflicts?

• Most viewed as Most viewed as Soviet/communistSoviet/communist inspired:inspired:– USSRUSSR => => ChinaChina => => North VietnamNorth Vietnam => =>

South Vietnam’s guerilla insurgentsSouth Vietnam’s guerilla insurgents

• How does the US (How does the US (JFKJFK) initially deal ) initially deal with South Vietnam’s insurgency?*with South Vietnam’s insurgency?*

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Counter Insurgency (CI)Counter Insurgency (CI)• JFK JFK sends sends Special ForcesSpecial Forces & & SEALSEAL advisors to conduct CI advisors to conduct CI

LBJ expands US involvement following 1964 Tonkin Gulf incident

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““Americanization”Americanization” of Vietnam War of Vietnam War(1965-1968)(1965-1968)

• Conventional US Troops take over fighting for SVNConventional US Troops take over fighting for SVN– Reach high point of 540,000 US troops by 1969Reach high point of 540,000 US troops by 1969

The majority of Americans support US policy & the war until 1968

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The The “Tet”“Tet” Offensive- 1968 Offensive- 1968

• The “light at the end of the tunnel” becomes a speeding train’s headlight:– Americans become disillusioned with continuing the War as it’s

bought home to them up front & personal

– Look for a way out of Vietnam “with honor”

1919

Exit StrategyExit Strategy• US involvement reached high point by late 1968US involvement reached high point by late 1968

– America became acutely divided over war America became acutely divided over war

– Following Following Tet OffensiveTet Offensive most Americans just wanted out most Americans just wanted out

• Seeking a way out of Seeking a way out of quagmirequagmire

– Nixon Nixon comes to powercomes to power with with “secret plan” “secret plan” to get outto get out

• ““VietnamizationVietnamization” => ” => allowallow “Peace with Honor” “Peace with Honor”

• February 1973February 1973=> => Peace Accords signedPeace Accords signed– War turned over toWar turned over to SVN & US military forces withdraw SVN & US military forces withdraw

– 1975: Peace 1975: Peace w/ow/o Honor & the “Vietnam Syndrome” Honor & the “Vietnam Syndrome”

• Nixon sought Soviet help to get US out of VietnamNixon sought Soviet help to get US out of Vietnam– AimAim: : Get Soviets & China to push North Vietnam to peace talks Get Soviets & China to push North Vietnam to peace talks

– Pursues Pursues easing of tensionseasing of tensions between two superpowers- between two superpowers- calledcalled??

2020

Détente’• A policy of Nixon administration followed to develop

more cordial relations with the Soviet Union. – Aimed in part in enlisting Soviet support to assist US in getting

North Vietnam back to peace table & serious negotiations

– So that US could get out of Vietnam “with honor.”

• Détente’ lasted until 1979– Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late 1979 (Carter) brought US-

Soviet Détente’ to an abrupt end.

US-Soviet relations declined even more when Ronald Reagan took office (“Evil Empire” Speech)

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Reagan &Reagan &“The Evil Empire”“The Evil Empire”• Reagan pursues Reagan pursues hard linehard line with the Soviets with the Soviets

– A corrupt USSR system living on barrowed economic timesA corrupt USSR system living on barrowed economic times– Serious reform long past due to save it from collapseSerious reform long past due to save it from collapse

• 1985: 1985: Mikhail GorbachevMikhail Gorbachev=> => comes to power & comes to power & attempts reform => attempts reform => PerestroikaPerestroika & & GlasnostGlasnost– ProblemProblem: Soviet system too corrupt & broken to salvage: Soviet system too corrupt & broken to salvage

• Reagan’sReagan’s SDISDI=> => outspending the Soviets into defeatoutspending the Soviets into defeat– Unable to keep up with strategic arms race & go broke tryingUnable to keep up with strategic arms race & go broke trying

• Year of RevolutionYear of Revolution & fall of Eastern Europe - 1989& fall of Eastern Europe - 1989 – Fall of Fall of Berlin WallBerlin Wall – symbol of Soviet Communism – symbol of Soviet Communism

• US Military operations inUS Military operations in Third WorldThird World continued:continued:– Grenada, Panama, Iraq #1 Grenada, Panama, Iraq #1 – (Clear lack of Soviet support for its former ally- Iraq)(Clear lack of Soviet support for its former ally- Iraq)

• Fall of Soviet Union- 1991 & Fall of Soviet Union- 1991 & End of End of Cold WarCold War

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After the Cold WarAfter the Cold War • New World OrderNew World Order – –

– Strategic reassessment Strategic reassessment (Bush I) (Bush I) tries to figure out what tries to figure out what US should do during the post Cold War eraUS should do during the post Cold War era

– Still trying to decide when Clinton is elected in 1992Still trying to decide when Clinton is elected in 1992

• Policy of Policy of EnlargementEnlargement (Clinton)(Clinton)=> => – Expand democracy & free markets globallyExpand democracy & free markets globally

• Also use military force as required (& we did):Also use military force as required (& we did):– Somalia 1993Somalia 1993– Haiti 1994Haiti 1994– Bosnia & NATO peacekeeping- 1995Bosnia & NATO peacekeeping- 1995– Serbia bombing – 1999Serbia bombing – 1999– Kosovo – NATO bombing & peacekeeping- 2000Kosovo – NATO bombing & peacekeeping- 2000

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Foreign Policy Under George W. BushForeign Policy Under George W. Bush • Neo-isolationismNeo-isolationism: : fromfrom 2000 2000 untiluntil 9/11/2001 9/11/2001

– TheoryTheory: US should take a step back: US should take a step back• Avoid always acting as world’s policemanAvoid always acting as world’s policeman

– RealityReality: Campaign rhetoric gives way to real world : Campaign rhetoric gives way to real world once in officeonce in office• The world is still very dangerous & America is not immuneThe world is still very dangerous & America is not immune

• ON ON 9/11/20019/11/2001 that reality hit home hard => that reality hit home hard => revised policyrevised policy

• The The Bush DoctrineBush Doctrine: : – America’s post 9/11/2001 Policy & Strategy-America’s post 9/11/2001 Policy & Strategy-

• FocusFocus:: Counter Terror Counter Terror Policy & National Security StrategyPolicy & National Security Strategy

– Preemptive strikes & “Preemptive strikes & “preventative warpreventative war””

• US invasion of US invasion of AfghanistanAfghanistan & & Iraq IIIraq II

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Foreign PolicyForeign Policy (FP) (FP) VersusVersus Domestic PolicyDomestic Policy (DP) (DP)

• National InterestNational Interest & its various degrees & levels & its various degrees & levels– Vital vs. Important- (who decides?)Vital vs. Important- (who decides?)

• Text: Text: “Two presidencies”“Two presidencies”– At At HomeHome( ( weakweak president) vs. president) vs. AbroadAbroad ( (strongstrong one)- why? one)- why?

• Five Sources of Presidential Foreign Policy power:– 1. The Constitution & president’s enumerated vs. implied powers

– 2. President’s “inherent” advantages in Foreign Policy

– 3. Role of precedent in presidential dealings in Foreign Policy

– 4. Supreme Court Rulings regarding presidential FP actions

– 5. Behavior of Congress when the President takes decisive action

• Let’s examines these sources of power in greater detail*

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1.1. The Constitution and Foreign Policy The Constitution and Foreign Policy

• Article IArticle I=> => enumeratedenumerated Congressional powers include:Congressional powers include:– Provide for common defenseProvide for common defense– Regulate commerceRegulate commerce– Define & punish Piracies & Felonies on high seasDefine & punish Piracies & Felonies on high seas– Declare WarDeclare War – Raise & support Armies & maintain a NavyRaise & support Armies & maintain a Navy– Make rules & regulations for land & naval forces (Make rules & regulations for land & naval forces (UCMJUCMJ))– Power of the purse => (fund Power of the purse => (fund or not or not fund military deployments)fund military deployments)

• Article IIArticle II=> => enumeratedenumerated Presidential powers:Presidential powers:– Commander in ChiefCommander in Chief (title or job description?) (title or job description?)– Power to Power to make treatiesmake treaties (subject to Senate’s ratification) (subject to Senate’s ratification)– Appoint AmbassadorsAppoint Ambassadors (Senate also has role- what?) (Senate also has role- what?)

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2.2. The President’s The President’s Inherent AdvantagesInherent Advantages

• Foreign Policy success depends on (what?):Foreign Policy success depends on (what?):– SpeedSpeed (quickly seize the initiative)(quickly seize the initiative)

– DiscretionDiscretion (secrecy)(secrecy)

– FlexibilityFlexibility (shift priorities as needed & compromise)(shift priorities as needed & compromise)

• Presidential Presidential initiativesinitiatives depend on the depend on the venuevenue used: used:– Foreign PolicyForeign Policy (FP) (FP) vs vs. . Domestic PolicyDomestic Policy (DP)- (DP)-

– Difference between the two Difference between the two WRT WRT presidential freedom presidential freedom of action?of action?

– FP:FP: Unless Unless Congress acts to haltCongress acts to halt president’s actions president’s actions• ((Military Force DeploymentMilitary Force Deployment) – ) – it standsit stands- - versus: versus:

– DP: DP: UntilUntil Congress agrees to act Congress agrees to act president’s initiativepresident’s initiative• ((Social Security reformSocial Security reform)- )- nothing happensnothing happens

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3.3. Precedent Precedent

• President’s aggressive interpretation of President’s aggressive interpretation of FP FP powerspowers– Any presidential action establishes precedentAny presidential action establishes precedent

• If left unchallenged or challenge is unsuccessful=>If left unchallenged or challenge is unsuccessful=>• Implied powerImplied power is is successfully successfully establishedestablished as result as result

– Successors use as spring board for further expansionSuccessors use as spring board for further expansion

• Truman to present=> Truman to present=> – Implied powerImplied power as as CINCCINC (Korean War- Text: Box 18-1) (Korean War- Text: Box 18-1)– Title confersTitle confers implied implied powerpower to order troops into combat to order troops into combat

– Now accepted as precedent (though grudgingly)Now accepted as precedent (though grudgingly) – Also depends on the perceived power & Also depends on the perceived power &

popularity (poll numbers) of the presidentpopularity (poll numbers) of the president

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4.4. Supreme Court Rulings Supreme Court Rulings

• US v. CurtissUS v. Curtiss -Wright Export Corporation (1936) -Wright Export Corporation (1936)– Court Decision: President’s FP powers go Court Decision: President’s FP powers go beyond beyond ConstitutionConstitution

– Impact:Impact: expanded expanded implied implied Presidential powersPresidential powers in Foreign Policy in Foreign Policy

• US v. BelmontUS v. Belmont (‘37)=> (‘37)=> executive agreementexecutive agreement (vs. (vs. TreatyTreaty))– Result:Result: executive agreementsexecutive agreements trend up- over 90%trend up- over 90% (See (See Box 18-2Box 18-2))

• Furthermore Court usually Furthermore Court usually refuses to hearrefuses to hear challenges on FP challenges on FP– Effect:Effect: de facto Court support for presidential FP prerogatives de facto Court support for presidential FP prerogatives

– Desire to avoid Presidential/Congress Desire to avoid Presidential/Congress political disputespolitical disputes in FP in FP

– Also Court believes FP rulings simply Also Court believes FP rulings simply beyond their competencebeyond their competence

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5.5. Behavior of Congress Behavior of Congress

• Partisan & institutional divisionsPartisan & institutional divisions in Congress=> in Congress=>– Results in their lack of unified action to challengeResults in their lack of unified action to challenge

• Belief in Belief in strong Presidential leadershipstrong Presidential leadership in FP in FP

• Electoral considerations Electoral considerations – (What if President is right? – avoid voters’ displeasure)(What if President is right? – avoid voters’ displeasure)

• Post WWII vs. post VietnamPost WWII vs. post Vietnam Congressional behavior Congressional behavior

• End of Vietnam War & Cold WarEnd of Vietnam War & Cold War => => – More Congressional activism in Foreign PolicyMore Congressional activism in Foreign Policy

• Post Iraq II Congressional behavior? (TBD)Post Iraq II Congressional behavior? (TBD)

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Next AssignmentNext Assignment

• Thanksgiving HolidayThanksgiving Holiday (Wednesday: no class) (Wednesday: no class)– Travel safely!Travel safely!

• Chapter 18b: Chapter 18b: Foreign Policy Foreign Policy (Next Monday)(Next Monday)– Learning Objectives 6-10Learning Objectives 6-10

• Preparation for Preparation for Course ReviewCourse Review (Wednesday 11/30)(Wednesday 11/30)– Also Department wide standardized test administered as wellAlso Department wide standardized test administered as well

• RESEARCH PAPER IS also DUE 11/30!!!RESEARCH PAPER IS also DUE 11/30!!!

• Complete Instructor Evals – today before you Complete Instructor Evals – today before you leave!leave!

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American Public

Congress

Foreign Policy Bureaucracies

White House Staff

President

Who Makes U.S. Foreign Policy?Who Makes U.S. Foreign Policy?

How much power & influence does each have on FP?*How much power & influence does each have on FP?*

NSC

3232

Foreign Policy Power

Let’s examine each more closely

3333

The White HouseThe White House & & NSCNSC• Role of President & Vice President Role of President & Vice President

– Varies w/administrationVaries w/administration– Generally=> President has called all the shotsGenerally=> President has called all the shots– RecentlyRecently VP delegated a great deal of power & influence VP delegated a great deal of power & influence

• Certainly true of this AdministrationCertainly true of this Administration

• National Security CouncilNational Security Council (NSC)* (NSC)* – Plays Plays key rolekey role in formulating American Foreign Policy in formulating American Foreign Policy

• NSC advisorNSC advisor & his or her staff’s role & his or her staff’s role– Plays as eitherPlays as either Honest brokerHonest broker oror policy advocatepolicy advocate– Depends on President’s preference & NSC advisorDepends on President’s preference & NSC advisor

• Nixon & Kissinger vs. Bush II & Rice (now Hadley) Nixon & Kissinger vs. Bush II & Rice (now Hadley)

3434

• Created in 1947

• Members include:

• The President & Vice President

• Secretary of State & Secretary of Defense

• Director of CIA & Chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff

• (Advisors to statutory members- subject to change)

• The staff is headed up by the National Security Advisor

• Other relevant Cabinet Secretaries invited as required

National Security Council (NSC)

3535

Defense Department

State Department

CIA & Intel Community

Foreign Policy Bureaucracy

NSC Staff(Coordinator)

Let’s examine their specific Foreign Policy roles

3636

The Foreign Policy BureaucracyThe Foreign Policy Bureaucracy • Roles ofRoles of Department of State Department of State

(DOS)(DOS) vs. Defense ( vs. Defense (DOD)DOD) – Current Current Iraq IIIraq II example: DOD example: DOD

took the lead over Statetook the lead over State

– Major debate ensuedMajor debate ensued • (Winning the (Winning the PeacePeace vice just vice just

Winning the Winning the WarWar))

– Personality driven debate (who Personality driven debate (who has the most influence?)has the most influence?)

• Uniformed Armed Svs’ role Uniformed Armed Svs’ role – ChairmanChairman & Joint Chiefs & Joint Chiefs

• (CJCS & JCS(CJCS & JCS chiefs) chiefs)

– Military judgments in a political Military judgments in a political world (The Challenge?)world (The Challenge?)

3737

Intelligence communityIntelligence community• Intelligence communityIntelligence community & selected agencies & selected agencies

– Major current power shifts creating disruptionsMajor current power shifts creating disruptions

– DNI DNI & & CIA- CIA- who’s on first? (TBD ) who’s on first? (TBD )

• Expertise & experience must be Expertise & experience must be taken into accounttaken into account– Recent Intel failure illustrates problem when not=> Recent Intel failure illustrates problem when not=>

– Telling the boss always what he wants to hear?Telling the boss always what he wants to hear?• Impact? (Tends to downplay unpleasant or hard news)Impact? (Tends to downplay unpleasant or hard news)

• Also all Agencies compete with each other for Also all Agencies compete with each other for power, influence, & $$$ (Budget share)power, influence, & $$$ (Budget share)– ResultResult:: Tends to drive US FP to also include what in Tends to drive US FP to also include what in

their recommendations?their recommendations?

– Agency’s Agency’s own interests & agendaown interests & agenda

3838

Congress & Foreign Policy

• Constitution (Article I) assigns Congress explicit powers

• Result: Considerable theoretical influence in foreign policy

• Before WWI & II, Congress tended to assert greater role in Foreign Policy

• During the 1950s and 1960s Congress typically deferred to the Executive Branch

• (Since WWII & start of Cold War)

• During 1970s and 1980s Congressional activism in foreign policy grew (Post Vietnam & Watergate)

• Post 9/11 Congress tended to defer to President (at first)

• Now appears to be re-asserting itself as war becomes unpopular

3939

Congress & Foreign Policy (2)

• So extent of power & influence So extent of power & influence varies over timevaries over time– Cold WarCold War vs. vs. post-Watergatepost-Watergate & & post-Vietnam War post-Vietnam War vs.vs.

– Post 9/11 Post 9/11 (…and back to the future)(…and back to the future)

• 3 ways Congress influences Foreign Policy3 ways Congress influences Foreign Policy::– 1. 1. Substantive legislationSubstantive legislation

• $$$ appropriations shape policy => power$$$ appropriations shape policy => power

– 2. 2. Procedural legislationProcedural legislation • How laws & regulations must be applied How laws & regulations must be applied wrt wrt PolicyPolicy

– 3. Efforts to shape 3. Efforts to shape Public OpinionPublic Opinion

• (Democrats vs. GOP on success or failure of Iraq II)(Democrats vs. GOP on success or failure of Iraq II)

4040

Public Opinion & Foreign Policy• Two options for the Public to shape Foreign PolicyTwo options for the Public to shape Foreign Policy::

– 1. Join 1. Join interest groupsinterest groups & lobby Congress & President & lobby Congress & President

– 2. 2. VoteVote for candidates aligned with their political views for candidates aligned with their political views

• Public seldom able to effect Public seldom able to effect day to dayday to day polices (Iraq II) polices (Iraq II)– Often policy makers decide with little regard to the Public –Often policy makers decide with little regard to the Public –why?why?

– Public Public lack detailed knowledge & expertiselack detailed knowledge & expertise

– ApathyApathy (most don’t even know or care where crisis spot is) (most don’t even know or care where crisis spot is)• More concerned with domestic & economic issuesMore concerned with domestic & economic issues

• Public usually rallies around President once conflict startsPublic usually rallies around President once conflict starts– Initial resistance to deployment => then active supportInitial resistance to deployment => then active support

• But with time support will wane if casualties grow and/or But with time support will wane if casualties grow and/or progress seems to take too long at too high a priceprogress seems to take too long at too high a price– Then the Public makes its concerns known & with impactThen the Public makes its concerns known & with impact

4141

Impact of Impact of Public OpinionPublic Opinion on on Foreign PolicyForeign Policy• Public Opinion provide Public Opinion provide decision makersdecision makers with very little with very little

guidance, guidance, but…but…

• Two Two indirect effects of Public Opinion:indirect effects of Public Opinion:– 1. 1. Constrains future policiesConstrains future policies which can be considered which can be considered

• Example: Example: Vietnam legacyVietnam legacy => => Vietnam syndromeVietnam syndrome

– 2. Determines Washington’s FP 2. Determines Washington’s FP prioritiespriorities (with the media)(with the media)

– Iraq II example=> looters initially brushed off by SECDEFIraq II example=> looters initially brushed off by SECDEF• Media alerted public & public became concerned re. Iraqi MuseumMedia alerted public & public became concerned re. Iraqi Museum

• As result FBI went to Iraq to track down stolen antiquitiesAs result FBI went to Iraq to track down stolen antiquities

• Recent Public concern for Intel failure Recent Public concern for Intel failure wrt WMDwrt WMD– Forced Administration to adjust reason for invasion (democracy)Forced Administration to adjust reason for invasion (democracy)

– Then forced to defend itself against critics (Then forced to defend itself against critics (cherry picking Intel?cherry picking Intel?))

4242

Challenges of the Challenges of the Post–Cold War EraPost–Cold War Era• Major debate continues: Major debate continues:

– What should the US role be in the post-Cold War era?What should the US role be in the post-Cold War era?

• Disagreements over Goals & Strategies & Change:Disagreements over Goals & Strategies & Change:– Terror strike ofTerror strike of 9/11/2001 9/11/2001 changed everythingchanged everything

– Debate now centers on strategy to prevent 2nd attack Debate now centers on strategy to prevent 2nd attack

– Preventive WarPreventive War & & pre-emptivepre-emptive strikes ( strikes (Bush DoctrineBush Doctrine))• ((Containment strategyContainment strategy no longer viable option)- why?no longer viable option)- why?

• Soviet Union no longer exists & suicide bombers can’t be Soviet Union no longer exists & suicide bombers can’t be logically deterredlogically deterred

– Homeland Security & Homeland Security & DefenseDefense at what expense? at what expense?• What’s at stake: What’s at stake: Cost in $$$ & FreedomsCost in $$$ & Freedoms

4343

US Defense Spending (in $$$: 1962-2010)

Another way to look at Defense Spending?*

4444

DOD Budget (as % of GDP)DOD Budget (as % of GDP)

%of

GDP

Korean War

9/11

Vietnam War(High point)

Cold WarEnds

4545

Future Challenges to US Foreign Policy

• Disagreements about the goals and strategies of American foreign policy for 21st century

• An ever changing foreign policy agenda• Cold War => Post Cold War => Bush Doctrine

• Unilateral versus multilateral* FP approach• How are they different?*

4646

Unilateralism: The tendency of the US to act alone in foreign affairs without consulting other

countries.

Multilateralism: Three or more Nations

cooperate together to solve some common foreign policy problem

Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism

Particular approach selected will depend on the majorFP problems the US will face during the 21st Century

4747

The United States will face complex problems in:

• Nuclear proliferation (North Korea & Iran)

• Military interventions (The Middle East & exiting Iraq)

• Economic policy (Trade imbalance w/China & ME Oil prices)

• Globalization (Global interdependence & domestic impact)

• “Inter-mestic” issues (Foreign Policy impact at home)

• Human rights (American ideals vs. US National interests)

• Homeland Security (Balancing security with liberties)

• The unknown threat (Future “9/11s”?)

Potential Problems in US Foreign Policy for 21st Century

4848

The Last Assignment:The Last Assignment:

• Review & prepare for Final ExamReview & prepare for Final Exam– 25 question 25 question standardized teststandardized test will also be administered will also be administered

• Questions & answers to Midterm & Test IIQuestions & answers to Midterm & Test II– Review: come prepared to ask your questions Review: come prepared to ask your questions

• (last chance to clarify any uncertainty)(last chance to clarify any uncertainty)

• Essay Question Prep Review Essay Question Prep Review (Handout last week)(Handout last week)

• Turn in your Research Paper on Wednesday 11/30Turn in your Research Paper on Wednesday 11/30– Include Bibliography Include Bibliography andand endnotes/sources cited endnotes/sources cited

4949

Chapter 18: Chapter 18: KEY TERMSKEY TERMS• Cold War: A phrase used to describe the high level of tension and distrust that characterized

relations between the Soviet Union and the United States from the late 1940s until the early 1990s.

• Containment: A bedrock principle of U.S. foreign policy from the 1940s to the 1980s that emphasized the need to prevent communist countries, especially the Soviet Union, from expanding the territory they controlled.

• Detente: A policy the Nixon administration followed to develop more cordial relations with the Soviet Union.

• Engagement: The policy of encouraging U.S. trade and investment in a country in an effort to encourage it to pursue policies more to America’s liking.

• Enlargement: The policy President Bill Clinton proposed as a substitute for containment. It calls on the United States to promote the emergence of market democracies; that is, countries that combine a free market economic system with a democratic political system.

• Executive agreements: International agreements that, unlike treaties, do not require the approval of two-thirds of the Senate to become binding on the United States.

• Foreign Service Officers: Career professional diplomats who work for the Department of State.

• Free trade: An economic policy that holds that lowering trade barriers will benefit the economies of all the countries involved.

• Globalism: The idea that the United States should be prepared to use military force around the globe to defend its political and economic interests.

• Globalization: The process by which growing economic relations and technological change make countries increasingly interdependent.

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Chapter 18: Chapter 18: KEY TERMSKEY TERMS (2)(2)• Intermestic issues: Issues such as trade, the environment, and drug trafficking that affect

both domestic and foreign interests.• Isolationism: A foreign policy built on the principle of avoiding formal military and

political alliances with other countries.• Marshall Plan: A multibillion-dollar U.S. aid program in the late 1940s and early 1950s

that helped Western European countries rebuild their economies in the wake of World War.

• Monroe Doctrine: A basic principle of U.S. foreign policy that dates back to a warning President James Monroe issued in 1823 that the United States would resist further European efforts to intervene in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.

• Multilateralism: An approach in which three or more countries cooperate for the purpose of solving some common problem.

• National interest: The idea that the United States has certain interests in international relations that most Americans agree on.

• National Missile Defense (NMD): A weapons system that, if it can be made to work, would potentially protect the United States and possibly its allies against attack by long-range ballistic missiles.

• Neo-conservativism: Recent resurgence of Conservative ideology, especially toward Foreign Policy.

• Neo-isolationism: The idea that the United States should reduce its role in world affairs and return to a foreign policy similar to the one it pursued before World War II.

• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): A military alliance founded in 1949 for the purpose of defending Western Europe from attack. Members of NATO include the United States, Canada, and fourteen European countries.

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Chapter 18: Chapter 18: KEY TERMSKEY TERMS (3)(3)

• Sovereignty: The power of self-rule.• Third World: A term loosely defined to mean the developing

countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.• Truman Doctrine: A policy, announced by President Truman in

1947, that the United States would oppose communist attempts to overthrow or conquer non-communist countries.

• Two presidencies: The argument that presidents have much greater influence over the content of foreign policy than the content of domestic policy.

• Unilateralism: The tendency of the United States to act alone in foreign affairs without consulting other countries.

• World Trade Organization (WTO): The international trade agency that began operation in 1995 as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.