1

Giving the Warfighter the Tools for Giving the Warfighter the Tools for Counterterrorism: Statistically Speaking Counterterrorism: Statistically Speaking

Dr. Nancy L. SpruillDr. Nancy L. Spruill Director, Acquisition Resources & Analysis

Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics)

The long-range contribution of statistics depends not so much upon getting a lot of highly trained statisticians into industry as it does in creating a statistically minded generation of physicists, chemists, engineers, and others who will in any way have a hand in developing and directing the production processes of tomorrow. - W.A.Shewhart & W.E.Deming

2

Major ThemesMajor Themes

• FlexibilityFlexibility

• Capability Capability

• Reliability Reliability

• PrivacyPrivacy

A knowledge of statistics is like a knowledge of foreign languages or of algebra; it may prove of use at any time under any circumstances.- A.L.Bowley

3

Acquisition FlexibilityAcquisition Flexibility

• Rise in Efficiency Among ProducersRise in Efficiency Among Producers

• The Pace of TechnologyThe Pace of Technology

• The Pace of ThreatsThe Pace of Threats

4

Flexibility ExamplesFlexibility Examples

• Joint Rapid Acquisition CellJoint Rapid Acquisition Cell– Meet Immediate Warfighter NeedsMeet Immediate Warfighter Needs– Diverse Experience BaseDiverse Experience Base– Leveraging TechnologyLeveraging Technology

5

Flexibility ExamplesFlexibility Examples

• Quick Reaction Special ProjectsQuick Reaction Special Projects– Defense Acquisition Challenge ProgramDefense Acquisition Challenge Program– Technology Transition InitiativeTechnology Transition Initiative– Combating Terrorism Technology Task ForceCombating Terrorism Technology Task Force

6

Thermobaric WeaponThermobaric WeaponDeployed & Employed in

Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in

Afghanistan

Chemistry to Fielded System – 90 Days

7

Providing CapabilityProviding Capability

• Impacted by Trends in U.S. EducationImpacted by Trends in U.S. Education

• Lacking Statistical KnowledgeLacking Statistical Knowledge– Applying principles of optimal experimental design to non-Applying principles of optimal experimental design to non-

standard situationsstandard situations– Methods for combining information from developmental Methods for combining information from developmental

test and tests of other systems with the results of test and tests of other systems with the results of operational testoperational test

– State-of-the-art validation of simulation models for State-of-the-art validation of simulation models for augmenting operational testingaugmenting operational testing

• Testing Critical to AcquisitionsTesting Critical to Acquisitions

Increasing Access to Statistical Expertise

8

Logistics ReliabilityLogistics Reliability

• Unique Identification (UID)Unique Identification (UID)

• Remote Frequency Identification (RFID)Remote Frequency Identification (RFID)

• Statistical Volume of DoD InventoryStatistical Volume of DoD Inventory

UID RFID

9

Privacy IssuesPrivacy Issues

• Technology & Privacy Advisory CommitteeTechnology & Privacy Advisory Committee

• Implementation Emphasis on DoDImplementation Emphasis on DoD

10

Privacy Issues ContinuedPrivacy Issues Continued

• Must Not Sacrifice Liberty for SecurityMust Not Sacrifice Liberty for Security

• Data MiningData Mining

• ConcernsConcerns– False PositivesFalse Positives– Mission CreepMission Creep

“they that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety” - Benjamin Franklin

11

SummarySummary

• Counterterrorism MandatesCounterterrorism Mandates

– FlexibilityFlexibility

– CapabilityCapability

– ReliabilityReliability

– PrivacyPrivacy

12

The long-range contribution of statistics depends … upon … creating a statistically minded generation of physicists, chemists, engineers, and others who will in any way have a hand in developing and directing the production processes of tomorrow.

- W.A.Shewhart & W.E.Deming

13

14

BACKUPBACKUP

15

The Challenge: Pace of TechnologyThe Challenge: Pace of Technology

Technology growth is non-linear…Acquisition path has been linear

Defense Acquisition Pace (circa 2003)

F-22 Milestone I: Oct 86 IOC: Dec 05*

Comanche Milestone I: Jun 89 IOC: Sep 09

* Computers at IOC are 512 X faster, hold 65,000 X bits of information than they did at MS I

• ““Moore’s Law”Moore’s Law” Computing doubles every 18 monthsComputing doubles every 18 months

• “ “Fiber Law”Fiber Law” Communication capacity doubles every 9 monthsCommunication capacity doubles every 9 months

• “ “Disk Law”Disk Law” Storage doubles every 12 monthsStorage doubles every 12 months

16

Chem Sensor

Biocollector

Video

DE-ATR with CBRV Nose cone (Insert)DE-ATR with CBRV Nose cone (Insert)

Dragon Eye (DE)-ATR (Chem-Bio-Video Advanced Tactical Recce)

Description:Description:• Visual Battle Damage

Assessment (BDA)

• Real time chemical agent detection and data transmission to ground station

• Collection of biological agents

• Ground-based bioagent analysis 30 - 45 min

Retrofitted New Sensors: ~ 1 month

Deployed to Support Operational Iraqi Freedom Today

17

Phase I (Sep 2001 – Feb 2002)Phase I (Sep 2001 – Feb 2002)Key Near-Term TechnologiesKey Near-Term Technologies

Conventional Air Conventional Air Launched Cruise Launched Cruise Missile (CALCM) Missile (CALCM)

PenetratorsPenetrators

Nuclear Quadrupole Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance DetectorResonance Detector

• Chemistry to Fielded System – 90 Days• Teaming:

Defense Threat Reduction AgencyAir Force Research LaboratoryAir Armament CenterNaval Surface Warfare CenterAir Combat CommandDoE / Lawrence Livermore National Lab

Thermobaric WeaponThermobaric Weapon

Deployed / Employed in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)

Deployed & Employed in Operation Enduring

Freedom (OEF)

18

BACKUP FOR EDUCATION BACKUP FOR EDUCATION COMMISSIONSCOMMISSIONS

• The information on 4 trends impacting education The information on 4 trends impacting education are supported by a variety of commissions are supported by a variety of commissions

• These include:These include:– President’s Council of Advisors on S&T, Oct 02President’s Council of Advisors on S&T, Oct 02

– National Science Board (NSB 03-69), Aug 03National Science Board (NSB 03-69), Aug 03

– Hart-Rudman Commission on Nat’l Security/21Hart-Rudman Commission on Nat’l Security/21stst Century, 99-01 Century, 99-01

– Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry, Nov 02Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry, Nov 02

– Building Science & Engineering Talent Report, April 04Building Science & Engineering Talent Report, April 04

– National Science Foundation, Apr 02 and Apr 04National Science Foundation, Apr 02 and Apr 04

19

BACKUP FOR COMMISSIONBACKUP FOR COMMISSION• The commission that noted the missing statistical knowledge was the Commission on Behavioral and Social The commission that noted the missing statistical knowledge was the Commission on Behavioral and Social

Sciences and Education. Part of the Committee on National Statistics in:Sciences and Education. Part of the Committee on National Statistics in:

Statistics, Testing, and Defense AcquisitionStatistics, Testing, and Defense AcquisitionNew Approaches and Methodological ImprovementsNew Approaches and Methodological Improvements

Michael L. Cohen, John E. Rolph, and Duane L. Steffey, EditorsMichael L. Cohen, John E. Rolph, and Duane L. Steffey, Editors

Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense SystemsPanel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems

Committee on National StatisticsCommittee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and EducationCommission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research CouncilNational Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESSNATIONAL ACADEMY PRESSWashington, D.C.Washington, D.C.

19981998

– Available on the web at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309065518/html/R1.htmlAvailable on the web at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309065518/html/R1.html– Specific reference at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309065518/html/157.htmlSpecific reference at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309065518/html/157.html

20

The UID LifecycleThe UID Lifecycle

21

Decision Tree to UID Items Under $5000Decision Tree to UID Items Under $5000