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1
Key issues framing the SEA scopeKey issues framing the SEA scope
Related to electricity demand and power trade development
in the LMB and GMS
Briefing to TNMC Based on the Presentations Made to NMCS/Line Agencies
And separate CSO/NGO Consultation Meetings
In Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Cambodia
2
Purpose of this PresentationPurpose of this Presentation
1. Trends in electricity demand-supply in the LMB/GMS 2. Linkages to the GMS sustainable energy futures – and
regional context of cross-border power 3. Proposed mainstream dams in relation to the above
trends (multiple seller- multiple buyer)
Illustrate /explore:
Focused on the opportunities side of the Development “Opportunities-Risk” Equation
3
LMB Selected indicators 2004LMB Selected indicators 2004Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
Population (million) (2004)
13.8 5.8 64.2 82.1
GDP (current USD billion)
4.9 2.2 150.1 41.2
GDP per capita (current USD)
361 420 2,519 551
FDI (USD million) 131 17 1,064 1,610
FDI/capita (USD) 9.5 2.9 16.6 19.6
Electricity use per capita (kWh)
45 160 1,752 (2003) 433 (2003)
Energy use per capita (kgoe)
180.0 355.0 1,405.7 (2003) 544.3 (2003)
Fuelwood share in total primary energy
88% 67% 16% 49%
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
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Regional GMS energy issues Regional GMS energy issues
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2009
5
Electricity consumption in LMB / Electricity consumption in LMB / GMS GMS
relative to other countries + Human Development IndexPer Capital Electricity Use
Kwh/yr/pc Normalized
Thailand 1,950 34.8Yunnan 1,252 22.4
Viet Nam 573 10.2Lao PDR 187 3.3Myanmar 78 1.4Cambodia 56 1.0
Source: Building Sustainable energy futures in the GMS, ADB, 2009
UN Human Development index + Per Capital Electricity Use (2005)
4,000 kwh / yr /pcAs turning pointIn HDI
Per capita electricity use
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Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
Significant differences in urbanization Significant differences in urbanization and household electricity consumption and household electricity consumption
in LMB in LMB Country Urbanization
RatioPer capita household consumption (KWh)
Share of residential sector in total electricity consumption (%)
Cambodia 17% 29 52.0
Lao PDR 21% 95 53.0
Thailand 33% 409 21.0
Vietnam 27% 242 42.0
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Overall trend in GDP growth + Overall trend in GDP growth + electricity consumption in GMS electricity consumption in GMS
correlatedcorrelated
Thailand growth of net
electricity consumption
and GDP 1982-2006
Example:
Growth + Electricity
No trend decoupling of overall energy
consumption seen yet - as in OECD
economies
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High economic growth in the LMB High economic growth in the LMB 1985-20051985-2005
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
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What about the current economic crisis?What about the current economic crisis?
Source: World Bank 2009e – expectedf - forecast
Current downturn in rate of economic growth in the GMS
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Trend with last Asia economic Trend with last Asia economic downturn downturn
Source: EIA 2009, UNSD 2009
electricity consumption, total energy and GDP - 1982-2006
Thailand growth rates:
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Changing economic environment?Changing economic environment?
12
Projected growth in grid power Projected growth in grid power demand demand
in LMB Countries 2005-2025in LMB Countries 2005-2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
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What this means What this means from a Regional Power Planner from a Regional Power Planner
PerspectivePerspective Grid Based Generation Expansion
time
Energy Demand
Need for new generation delayed through demand-side management & supply-side efficiency measures
Future Capacity AdditionsFuture Capacity Additions• Natural Gas?• Coal?• Oil?• Hydro from tributaries or LMB mainstream?• Nuclear?• Co-generation, etc• Grid-scale biomass• Grid-scale Wind, Solar• Other Grid-scale renewable?
Existing Capacity
• Natural gas• Coal• Oil• hydropower• biomass• Etc.
Projected energy demand Projected energy demand with demand management Supply
*RoW = Rest of World
TodayToday
Other:Other:• Power Import• Replacement Plant• Fuel-Switching
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GMS energy resources – for grid-scale GMS energy resources – for grid-scale electricity generation (ADB)electricity generation (ADB)
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Hydro (MWyr/yr) - ADB
Other renewable sources- Different grades
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet NamRegional
total (GMS)
Low –cost 1,670 4,640 2,784 3,248 54,102
Medium-cost 1,114 3,944 1,856 3,712 43,802
High-cost 742 2,320 928 1,392 23,571
Small 650 1,015 406 812 5,928
Total 4,176 11,919 5,974 9,164 127,403
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet NamRegional
total (GMS)
Low –cost 1,670 4,640 2,784 3,248 54,102
Medium-cost 1,114 3,944 1,856 3,712 43,802
High-cost 742 2,320 928 1,392 23,571
Small 650 1,015 406 812 5,928
Total 4,176 11,919 5,974 9,164 127,403
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• From ADBFour GMS Scenarios – new generation capacity to 2025
Electricity Generation Scenarios – Fuel Electricity Generation Scenarios – Fuel TypeType
Hydropower Between 62,000 – 93,000 MW
Between 217,000 – 238,000 MW
One Interpretation – GMS Energy Futures ADB
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Trends in GMS cross-border Trends in GMS cross-border power trade?power trade?
• Inter-government Agreement on Regional Power Trade (2002)• GMS Power Trade Road Map - as reference• Existing Bilateral Power Trade MOUs, subject to PPAs
– E.g. Thailand’s MOU’s with• Lao PDR (5,000 MW)• Cambodia• Others, including China
Cross-border trade is the key motivating factor for 11+ proposed LMB hydropower schemes (buyer + seller perspectives)
Policy + Legal FrameworkPolicy + Legal Framework
Why?
Under Integrated GMS Scenario
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Trend in cross-border Power TradeTrend in cross-border Power Trade
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
TTrade flow (GWh)rade flow (GWh)
in 2005in 2005
2025202520252025
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2005 2025
Projected electricity trade within 2005-2025Projected electricity trade within 2005-2025One Trend Scenario – GMS (ADB) One Trend Scenario – GMS (ADB)
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
?
Under Integrated GMS Scenario
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11+ Proposed LMB Mainstream dams in the 11+ Proposed LMB Mainstream dams in the Context of Cross-Border TradeContext of Cross-Border Trade
• 12-14,000 MW and up to 65,000 GWh av. annual
• 11.5% of installed capacity in LMB by 2020
• 9.3% of power produced in the LMB by 2020
• 5% of new generation capacity in GMS by 2025 (ADB Base case)
• Abut 10 Nam Theun 2’s
All LMB schemes together represent near:
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Potential Markets for Mainstream Potential Markets for Mainstream DamsDams
ThailandThailand
PRCPRC
Lao & CambodiaLao & Cambodia
Viet NamViet Nam
2,600 MW
Luang Prabang 1,410 MWSambor 2,600 MWStung Treng 800 MW
8 in operation, under construction and planned, total 13,800 MW
980 MW- A proportion of
generation for domestic power expansion
- Units from schemes, subject to agreements
1,410 MW
1,230 MW
1,260 MW
1,320 MW
1,200 MW
1,872 MW
800 MW
Pak Beng 1,230 MWXayabori 1,260 MWPak Lay 1,300 MWSanakham 1,200 MWBan Khoum 1,827 MWLat Sua 800 MWDon Sahong 360 MW
MyanmarMyanmar
- No mainstream projects proposed
360 MW
Installed Capacities (MW) subject to change
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5 general themes in discussions to date (in Cambodia, Lao & Viet Nam)
1. National policy framework - what policies are relevant to place decisions on LMB mainstream dams in a basin-wide sustainable context?
2. Demand - Is the power needed? Is the picture changed with the economic downturn?
3. Supply - Other options to meet electricity needs? theoretical and practical ? What lead time is needed?
4. Priorities – to meet urban or rural needs? 5. Transboundary dimensions - What are the opportunities
and constrains? Sharing benefits? Mechanisms?
Summing Up Summing Up Framing Issues Regional Energy Demand / Power TradeFraming Issues Regional Energy Demand / Power Trade
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Tariff measures?
Preferential Energy Rates?
Subsidy on power saving?
Carbon Tax?
Distribution Loss Reduction?
Structural Change in Demand?
End-Use Efficiency?
Power Factor correction?
Bulk metering?
Conventional Thermal? gas, coal, oil
Hydro Tributaries?
Hydro Mainstream?
Grid-scale Renewable? E.g. wind, biomas, solar
Nuclear?
Decentralized Systems?
Other non Conventional?
Electricity Imports?
Supply-side efficiency?
Improved facility operations?
Improved cost recovery?
Policies to attract investors?
Public and private sector roles?
Power Sector
Structural / Structural / Infrastructure optionsInfrastructure options
Demand-Side Demand-Side ManagementManagement
OptionsOptions
Supply-Side Supply-Side OptionsOptions
Non-StructuralNon-StructuralOptionsOptions
e.g. NGO / CSOs and others advocate expanding consideration of options
Change for SEA: Measure and Manage Expectation
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How will the SEA address divergent How will the SEA address divergent views?views?
On the power and energy themeOn the power and energy theme
• SEA now at Preparation Stage – consultation oriented. • Focus on the 11+ mainstream dams• Systematically bring existing information in a timely way to feed
immediate needs (e.g. MRC Procedures) + longer term planning
Inception Report and Baseline Assessment - to follow
• Trend analysisTrend analysis - how mainstream dams impact on development trends
• Scenario analysisScenario analysis - ‘With and without’ mainstream dams scenario’s feeding new information to MRC Hydropower Database > BDP Scenario.
• Opportunities and RisksOpportunities and Risks – analysis of development opportunities and risks, mitigation and enhancement using the SEA Framework
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Thank you