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1
Mission Goal 3: Weather and Water
Research Plan FY 06 – FY 10
Louis W. Uccellini
February 24, 2004
Overview
2
Key Factors
• Research is Mission Driven: Goals Provided by “Service” Components
• Consistent with FY06 Weather and Water Program Plan/Baseline Assessments
• Linked Explicitly with NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP)
• Emphasize the Need to Leverage Other Agencies
3
National Needs
National Needs Have Been Prioritized
• Extreme Weather
• Drought and Fresh Water Availability
• Air Quality
• Coastal Zones
4
Where Are We Headed:Long Term Service Delivery Goals
2000 Future
Tornadoes (Lead Time) 12 Minutes 1 Hour
Severe Thunderstorms (Lead Time) 18 Minutes 2 Hours
Flash Floods (Lead Time) 43 Minutes 1 Hour
Water Resources Information Limited On Demand
Hurricanes (Lead Time) 24 Hours 3 Days
Winter Storm Warnings (Lead Time) 9 Hours Several Days
Air Quality (Lead Time) N/A Several Days
Space Weather (Lead Time) Hours Geomagnetic Storm – 5 Days
Solar Radiation Storm – 2 Days
Coastal Winds and Waves (Lead Time)
Minutes Convective Storms – 5 Hours
Gales & Storms – 3 Days
5
Research Plan Strategy
• Focus on Four Key Improvement Thrusts Improve Weather Forecasts, Warnings, Information, and
Services (Including Severe Wx, Hurricanes, Winter Storms, Quantitative Precipitation, Floods, Fire Wx, Space Wx, etc.)
Integrate NOAA Assets to Deliver Water Resource Predictions
Establish National Air Quality Capability in Partnership with EPA
Integrate and Improve NOAA’s Environmental Information Products and Services for Nation’s Coastal Zones
• Advance Two Enabling Capabilities Integrated Observations Environmental Modeling
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Enabling CapabilitiesImprovements Must Occur Here
• Monitor & Observe: Surface, ocean, and atmosphere observations – Needed for forecasts and warnings, models, verification, and
validation– Includes NEXRAD, ASOS, radiosondes, buoys, and other networks
• Assess & Predict: Models, IT, infrastructure, and forecasters/hydrologists – Needed to produce warnings, forecasts, and information. – Includes Labor (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers, Regional
and National Headquarters), AWIPS, telecommunications
• Engage, Advise & Inform: Product dissemination and customer outreach– Needed to deliver critical warnings, forecasts, and
information and to train and educate customers – Includes NOAA Weather Radio, Family of Services, Storm Ready
• Understand & Describe: Research and Development – Needed for product, information, and service improvement– Includes Laboratories (labor, infrastructure, joint institutes),
grant programs
7
Observational Issues
• “Observations Are NOAA’s Legacy” (Kelly Redmond)
• Bringing New Technological Advances to Radar (NEXRAD Dual Polarization, Phased Array) and Satellites (Research Satellites, NPOESS Preparatory Mission, GOES-R)
• How to Combine with Insitu Measurements
• How to Extract Information; Maximize Diagnostic and Predictive Capabilities (e.g., ASOS)
• Observations and Modeling Issues are Linked
8
5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years
Year
Count
(Mill
ions)
Daily Upper Air Observation Count
Year
Satellite Instruments by Platform
Count
NPOESSMETEOPNOAA
WindsatGOESDMSP
1990 201020001990 2010 2010-250chYear
2002
2003
Insert Date
Providing Global Measurements
Aqua
Terra
TRMM
SORCE
SeaWiFS
Aura
Meteor/SAGE
GRACE
ICESat
Cloudsat
Jason
CALIPSO
GIFTSTOPEX
Landsat
NOAA/POES
10
Modeling Issues
• Data Assimilation Linked to Observing Program; Determine the “Optimal Mix” of Insitu and Remotely Sensed Observations (Especially Radar and Satellite)
• Ensemble Approach– Number of Members? (Will Likely Rely on International
Partners to Increase “Final” Set of Model Runs)
– Model Diversity?
– Initial State Perturbation?
• Interdisciplinary Approach Model Flexibility (Especially Climate/Wx)
• Research to Operations – Can Each Community Use the Same Modeling System?
11
Fundamental Strategy
• Unified Earth System Modeling System
– Links Climate, Weather, Ocean, Land, Space Wx
– Applied to Multidisciplinary Problem (e.g. Hydrometeorological, Air Quality, Coastal Zone)
– Spans the Scales from Climate to Short-Term Mesoscale Prediction
• Based on a Community Model Approach
– Interoperable (Within NOAA; Among Other Agencies)
– Extensible
– Applied to Research to Operations Transition
12
The Challenges of Operational “Goals” Driving Research “Needs”
• Scheduling Research Advances
• Protecting the Serendipity of the Research Process
• Ensuring Research Results Can Accelerate Service Advancements
• Taking Advantage of Test Beds (Bridge that Links Research Needs to Operational Service Goals)
– JHT, JCSDA, HWTB, DTC, Proposed Hydromet and Climate Test Beds
• Major Premise for Advancement: Research Community Can do “Research” with Operational Observations and Modeling Systems
13
Supporting ProgramsThe Need to Leverage!
• Ongoing Programs that Require NOAA Support for Mission Goal 3 Advancements:
– USWRP
– THORPex
– Hydrology: Rivers, Lakes and Floods Program
– Coasts, Estuaries and Oceans Program
– Science and Technology Infusion Program (STIP)
• Linkage to Other Goal Programs
14
Summary
• Service Goals Are in Place
• Priorities Have Been Established
• Research to Operational Transition (The Bridge) Remains the Challenge for Successful NOAA
• Must be Accomplished with Recognition for Importance of Both the Science “Needs” and the Service “Goals” that Support “Transition from Research to Operations”
• Must Work in Partnership with Programs that Include Other Agencies
15
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National Needs
• Severe Weather (Atmosphere & Space) Continues to Have Major Impacts on the Nation– Cause $11B in damage/year – 523 Casualties
• Drought and Fresh Water Availability are Growing National Concerns– $6B-$8B in losses/year
• Poor Air Quality has Significant Effect on the Nation’s Health and Economy– Pollution causes up to 40,000 deaths and $150B in costs/year
• Rising Costs of Weather and Water Damage Along Nation’s Coasts – Damages from coastal storms can reach $50B/year
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