National Centers for Environmental Prediction:

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

An Overview

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• Defining Climate and Weather Prediction

• The NOAA Prediction Process

• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Service

• Future Considerations

Overview

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Defining Climate and Weather Prediction

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Defining Climate and Weather Predictionand Links Between the Two

• Weather • Events Lasting Several Days (Snowstorms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Hot & Cold

Periods)• Forecasts Made for Specific Parameters - Events• Forecasts Have Skill Out to 7 Days

• Climate• AVERAGE of Weather Events over a Week, Month, Season• Forecasts are for AVERAGE Conditions, Unusual Seasons,

Storminess, Drought,…• Seasonal Forecasts Have Limited Skill, Linked to

Strong Climatic Signals• Linkages

• [*]ENSO and MJO influence on storm tracks (cold season) and hurricanes (warm season)

• [#]Long-term trends in extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.)

Climate

Change

( Trends)

Climate

Change

( Trends)

Weather

(Extreme

Events)

Weather

(Extreme

Events)

Seasonal

Climate

Variability

El Nino, La Nino

Seasonal

Climate

Variability

El Nino, La Nino

*

#

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Weather Prediction Products

Climate PredictionProducts

Tra

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Pro

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of

Pro

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of

Life

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Pro

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Benefits

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The NOAA Prediction Process

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

FeedbackFeedback

DistributeDistribute

LocalOfficesLocal

OfficesCentral

GuidanceCentral

GuidanceProcessProcess

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …

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Need for a Balanced Approach

• Observations – Global– Oceans– Atmosphere– Land – Cryosphere

• Numerical Prediction Models• Computational Power/Communications• Forecasters

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Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services

• Mission• What Does NCEP Do?• Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made• Computing Capability• GPRA Measures• Long-Term Performance Gains

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

1151 FTE

Total FTE: 426146 Contractors/20 Visitors

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What Does NCEP Do?

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual

• El Nino – La Nina Forecast

• Weather Forecasts to Day 7

• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather

• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)

• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

GlobalForecast System

*Climate Forecast System

GFDLHurricane

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

Model Dependencies:Basis for How Predictions are Made

Forecast

Aviation Hourly Forecast

GLOBAL

DATA Ocean

Ocean

Regional Weather Forecast Models

Ocean

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast

Models

• Cryosphere

• Atmosphere • Ocean

• Land

• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$26.4M/Year $26.4M/Year InvestmentInvestment

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GPRA Scores

Performance Measure

Actual

2002

Actual

2003

Goal/Actual

2004

Goal/Actual

2005

Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)

124 nm 107 nm 129 nm/94 nm 128 nm/NA

Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”

.30 .29 .25/.29 .27/.32

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)

18 17 21/17 18/20

NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

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Long-Term Performance Gains

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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

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Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.3519

91

1992

1993

1994

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2002

2003

Th

reat

Sco

re

Human(HPC)

ETA

Linear(Human(HPC))Linear (ETA)

HPC Forecasters Add Value

Models provide basis for improvement Correlations

Of HPC with:

Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85

(DOC GPRA goal)

In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill

Day 7

Day 5

Day 3

22

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

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Future Considerations

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Expanding “Environmental” Services

• Air Quality Prediction (with the EPA)

• Ocean Modeling Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model

• Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events– Hurricane intensity– Snowstorms – Severe Weather– Fire Weather– Floods

• Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System

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Linkages to Outside Community

• International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO-sponsored climate programs

• “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations

• Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products

• Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”)

• World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)

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NCEP’s Future Location

Current LocationNOAA Science Center

World Weather BuildingCamp Springs

New LocationNOAA Center for

Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park

(Early FY08)

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NCEP’s Future Location

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

UMD Research Park, College Park(Early FY08)

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Student Employment Programs at NOAA

• Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP)– Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program

that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school.

– Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.

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Student Employment Programs at NOAA• NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the

Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): – Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide work

experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral.

• NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program– Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are

recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school.

• For more information on all NOAA programs– http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm

• National Science Foundation’s Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program– NOAA’s NSSL, Storm Prediction Center, Norman WFO, ROC and WDTB host students

through the University of Oklahoma (http://www.caps.ou.edu/reu/)

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NCEP Employment Situation

• Employment situation – FY05– Total of 426 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 20 visitors– Currently have 21 Student Interns – During the last 12 months

• 32 CS vacancies; 9 SCEP/STEP • Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists• 12 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, NCAS, NOAA

Educational Partnership Programs, Research Experiences for Undergraduates)

– Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)

– NCEP HR specialist – Sue.Perrotta@noaa.gov

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Summary

• NCEP is– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of

products from the “Sun to the Sea”– Ready to work with NOAA on expanded responsibilities

(e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach

– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery

– A challenging place to work from both an applied research and operational perspective