NCEP Update

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NCEP Update Meeting January 17, 2007San Antonio, TX

2

Overview

• NCEP Administrative Summary• Programmatic Advancements/Challenges• Performance Metrics• Model Implementations• Challenges

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NCEP Administrative Summary

Space Environment CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Total FTE: 430161 Contractors/47 Visitors

Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Storm Prediction Center

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What Does NCEP Do?

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual

• El Nino – La Nina Forecast

• Weather Forecasts to Day 7

• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather

• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)

• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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6

Center Directors

• TPC - Max Mayfield retires 1/3/07

• OPC – Dr. Jim Hoke’s shared directorship of HPC and OPC ends 11/26/06

• CPC – Jim Laver retires 1/3/07

• SEC – Dr. Ernie Hildner retires in July 06

• NCO – Kevin Cooley assumes new position Dept of Navy – 12/06

• TPC New Director - Bill Proenza

• HPC Director - Dr. Jim Hoke

• OPC Director – Dr. Ming Ji

• CPC position now being advertised – Arun Kumar acting

• SEC Director – Dr. Thomas Bogdan

• NCO position now being advertised – Ben Kyger acting

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Service – Science Linkagewith the Outside Community

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed*

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SEC Solar Test Bed

• AWC FAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP*

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

* Under development

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EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBWRF DTC

JHT

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operationsOther Agencies

&International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

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Weather and Climate Supercomputer

Supercomputer Backup

SEC Integration

Dropsondes / EMC Adjustments

Labor ATBs/Rent Adjustments

IT Cycle Replacement

Data Assimilation

New TPC Staff

NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding

0102030405060708090

100

FY2000

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

FY2007

Fiscal Year

$ in

Mill

ions

$68.2$62.0

$54.8$50.1

$80.1$88.2 $90.4

FY06 ORF: $64.3M

FY06 PAC: $26.1M

Total: $90.4M

* Does Not Include $3M Hurricane Supplemental Funding in 2005/2006

$90.4

?

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Programmatic Advances/Challenges

• New building– NOAA Center for Weather and Climate

Prediction– National Weather Center on Norman

• Computer Capability

• Programmatic– Air Quality– Ocean “Backbone”

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and

visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Groundbreaking occurred 13 March 2006

Baseline

10/18/05

FY07 Pres.

Budget*

Construction Start

26-June-06 Dec 06

Move Start 24-Sep-07 Feb 08

Move Complete

01-Feb-08 Oct 08

Revised Construction Schedule

*Schedule change pending

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NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH

First New UMDBuilding

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National Weather Center (NWC)Norman, Oklahoma

NWS -Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

OAR-National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)

DOC/DOD/DOT-WSR-88D

Radar Operations Center (ROC)

NWS – Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)

NWS -Weather Forecast Office (WFO)Sept 5, 2006

First SPC Shift in New Facility

Copyright 2006 Robert Fritchie

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•Receives Over 239 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 14.8 Million Model Fields Each Day

•6 million of which are derived from the global ensemble•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Backup located in Fairmont, WV•3x upgrade scheduled to be operational January 23, 2007

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

Primary Weather Primary Weather $13.9 M$13.9 M

Primary Climate Primary Climate $5.3 M$5.3 M

Backup Backup $7.2 M$7.2 M

Total: Total: $26.4 M$26.4 M

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Air Quality Prediction at NCEP• Short-Term ( Through FY2008):

– 48 hour forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to 12 km WRF-NMMlinked to 12 km WRF-NMM

– Eastern US domain declared operational in 2005

– Testing of Expanded CONUS domain in ’05-’06

– CONUS Implementation (Summer ‘07)

– Testing CONUS particulate matter (PM) predictions (’07 – ‘08)

• Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010):– Continue to develop PM capability

– Expand to cover Alaska and Hawaii

– Develop Global PM and reduced chemistry capability in GFS/CFS

– Develop chemical data assimilation

• Longer range (by FY2013):– Extend air quality forecast range to 72 hours

– Include broader range of significant pollutants

East Domain

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“Backbone” for Operational Ocean ModelReal Time-Ocean Forecast System Deployment Schedule

North Atlantic (HYCOM Implemented)

Global Oceans (Global HYCOM)

North-East Pacific & Hawaii

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling

Collaborate with NOS on bay and estuary boundary conditions; Initiate wave-current interactions. Storm Surge Modeling

EcosystemModeling

Coupled Global Atmosphere Ocean

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Performance Measures

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“I want to congratulate the Denver/Boulder WFO and NCEP for the great job you have done on our two holiday snowstorms. At my house, the two storm snowfall total was 47 inches. On both storms the watches came out early – the warnings came out early – they timed the storms right… The NAM model (WRF NMM) nailed both storms two days in advance. The 06 GMT runs on December 20 for the NAM… predicted about 25 inches of snow – right on target… The excellent performance of the WRF and RUC in predicting extremely heavy snow is proof of the great progress we have made in modeling and assimilation – something that OAR and NWS have worked on together quite effectively in recent years.” – Sandy MacDonald, Director NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 1/4/07

Total precip from 06z cycle 12/20/06

North American Model (NAM) NMM

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“Sometimes our profession has a big success…we saw a major one this week. As you know, a devastating windstorm struck the Northwest late Thursday/early Friday. Winds reached 80-90 mph in places with 70 knot gusts common place. Over a million customers lost power…The forecasts were nearly perfect. 4-5 days out the GFS clearly showed the threat and for the several days before the storm hit, both the GFS and the NAM consistently showed the correct evolution and storm intensity…this is as good as it gets… excellent model runs, NWS waiting until they were sure and hitting the warnings well before the event, population and media acknowledging we got it right on a critical and major event… To get a storm this well so far in advance is clear evidence that what you are doing to improve data assimilation over the ocean using satellite assets is really paying off.” – Professor Clifford Mass, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Washington, 12/17/06

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL

Nu

mb

er

of

Hit

s (

Mil

lio

ns

)

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

Comms Upgrade

2006

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CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

Ano

mal

y C

orre

latio

n

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/Reanl

SH CDAS/Reanl

RecordValue

RecordImprovement

NHReanl

SHReanl

NH

SH

22

23

24

GPRA Scores

Performance Measure

Actual

2002

Actual

2003

Goal/Actual

2004

Goal/Actual

2005

Goal/Actual 2006

Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)

124 nm 107 nm 129 nm/94 nm 128 nm/101 nm 111 nm/97 nm

Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”

.30 .29 .25/.29 .27/.30 .28/.30

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)

18 17 21/17 18/18 18/25

NCEP Responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

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2006 UPGRADES SHOULD PROVIDE SIGNIFCIANTLY BETTER INTENSITY PREDICTION

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In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2+ days of skill

Day 7

Day 5

Day 3

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U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal

• Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004• Climate Test Bed established in 2005, focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

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Model Implementations

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2006 Implementations

• North American Model (NAM)– Replace Eta with WRF-NMM – 13 June 06

• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)– Run 4 Cycles Daily – 25 June 06

• NAEFS – 30 May 06– Increase U.S. Membership from 10 15 Members

• U.S. – 60 members, Canadian – 20 members, FNMOC – 20 members

• Air Quality Forecast– Expanded domain to CONUS – Parallel Operations for 06 Season

• Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 22 Aug 06– RTMA is First Component of Analysis of Record (Hourly)– 5km Analysis in Support of NDFD

• Marine Wave Model– 10 member Ensemble Wave model – 15 Aug 06– Great Lakes Wave model – 22 Aug 06

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GFS

CFS

Hurricane WRF

SREF

NAM – WRFNMM

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

GlobalData

Assimilation

WRF-NMMWRF-ARWETARSM

L D A S

Sev Wx

WRF-NMMWRF-ARW

NAEFS

NDAS

Rapid Update Cycle

EnsembleHurricane/GFDL

Global

Climate Regional

MOM3

HYCOMOcean

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2007 Implementations• Global Forecast System (GFS)

– Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3rd Qtr FY2007

– Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis – 4rd Qtr FY2007

• NAM– WRF Physics Upgrade – 3rd Qtr FY2007– DGEX Physics upgrade – 3rd Qtr FY2007

• Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3rd Qtr FY2007– RTMA upgrade– Extension to OCONUS

• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)– Bias Correction for Precipitation – 4rd Qtr FY2007

• NAEFS– Increase U.S. Membership from 15 20 Members – 2rd Qtr FY2007

• U.S. – 80 members, Canadian – 20 members, FNMOC – 20 members– Increase in vertical levels – 4th Qtr FY2007

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2007 Implementations (cont.)

• Air Quality Forecast– Expanded operational domain to

CONUS – 3th Qtr FY2007

• Ocean Modeling– Multi-scale Wave Model – 4th Qtr FY2007– HYCOM data assimilation

upgrade – 4th Qtr FY2007

• Hurricane Modeling – 3 Qtr FY2007– Hurricane WRF in parallel

operations– Probabilistic Storm Surge

Ocean Heat Content - Katrina

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Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled ModelsCoupled Models

High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model

Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer

HYCOM3D ocean circulationmodelWAVEWATCH III

Spectral wave model

NOAH LSM

NOSland and coastal waters

NCEP/Environmental Modeling CenterAtmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land

runoff

fluxes

wave fluxes

wave spectra

windsair temp. SST

currents

elevations currents3D salinities temperatures

other fluxes

surgeinundation

radiativefluxes

HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere

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• Approach “Era of …”– Era of Ensemble models (NRC report)– Era of the Earth System model approach

• Land – Ocean – Ice – Atmosphere

– Era of NPOESS on GOES-R– Era of the Climate

– Weather linkage

Challenges

• • •

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

tion

Sp

ace

S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Sta

te/L

oca

l S

tate

/Lo

cal

Pla

nn

ing

Pla

nn

ing

Sta

te/L

oca

l S

tate

/Lo

cal

Pla

nn

ing

Pla

nn

ing

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

Flo

od

Miti

ga

tion

F

loo

d M

itig

atio

n

& N

avi

ga

tion

& N

avi

ga

tion

Flo

od

Miti

ga

tion

F

loo

d M

itig

atio

n

& N

avi

ga

tion

& N

avi

ga

tion

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

yE

ne

rgy

En

erg

yE

ne

rgy

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Benefits

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

He

alth

He

alth

He

alth

He

alth

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models

Global Forecast System

North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF

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Future Considerations

• Challenges of – Multi-model Ensembles– Climate – Weather linkages– NPOESS data volume and improved delivery time– Highest possible resolution for model– Applications toward extreme event prediction– Expansion into new forecast applications

(ecosystems, air/water quality … )

• All point to need for new look at production suite NCEP Production Suite

Weather, Ocean & Climate Forecast SystemsVersion 3.0 April 9, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle

Per

cen

t U

sed

RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

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Appendix

41

EMC

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Requirements

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

Concept of Operations

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

6. EMC Pre-Implementation

Testing (Packaging and Calibration)

7. NCO Pre-Implementation

Testing

8. ImplementationDelivery

5. Level II:-Preliminary

Testing(DA/Higher Resolution)

4. Level I:-Preliminary

Testing(Lower Resolution)

3. Interface with Operational Codes

2. Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or

Development

1. Identified for Selection

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

NCEP’s (Modeling) Transition to Operations: Focus on EMC and NCO

NCO EMC

Effort

Test Beds

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The Environmental Forecast Process

Observations

Analysis

Model Forecast

Post-processed Model Data

Forecaster

User (public, industry…)

NumericalForecastSystem

Data Assimilation

Observations , Analysis and Modeling Systems are now Linked

43

EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Managementfor Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Time

GMAO

EMC

* * EMC, GMAO System change Repository change

+ Repository Merger (new tag)

* * * * * * * *

* * * * * * *

Repository

1 3Accepted changes

2

GSI & CRTM supported

Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-Francewho have annual code mergers

But, to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months)

Protocols1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged

code from repository to begin work2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into

repository3 – Code mergers, repository changes and

timing are NCEP’s decision

+ +

3 months