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Population growth rates and trends

Topic 1 - Population Growth

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Western Bay of Plenty Sub-region

Includes: • Western Bay of

Plenty District Council

• Tauranga City Council

• Coastal Marine Area

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Population growth rate

Rapid population growth since the 1950s

Cameron Road showing the Bellevue Temperance Hotel, west end of Wharf Street about 1910.

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Population growth rate• Challenge - sustainable urban and rural

development

• Every week:

• 135 people arrive• 66 people leave • 30 new houses built• 60 more vehicles • 51 new jobs

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Future Growth Estimates

• 2001 population 130,000 – 14% up on 1996 census

• 198,000 by 2021

• 286,000 by 2051

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Population – NZ context

• 2051- 5.2% of national population

• Fourth or fifth most populated region in New Zealand

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Demographics

• Ageing changing households

• Traditional families likely to double

• Single, two-person households likely to treble by 2051

• Population ageing

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Aging population • Popular place to retire• Aging population• Demographic changes• Workforce capacity - baby

boomers retire • 5,000 people over 80 • By 2051, more than 35,000

Question / Pātai• Implications of aging

population?

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Young families, small households

• Families with young children• Changing household structures • Traditional families double by

2051• Single, two-person households

treble by 2051

Question / Pātai• Implications of more families with

young children?

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Non-permanent residents

• Other people:• Short-term visitors/tourists

• Second homeowners

• Itinerant, seasonal workers

• Population forecasts may understate the position

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Other factors• Changes in attractiveness:

– Improved tertiary facilities– Improved employment opportunities– Worsening environment from growth (traffic

congestion, reduced “small town” appeal)

Question / Pātai

• Larger population - positive or negative?

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Implications of population growth• More houses, new types • More business land • Better roads, more efficient

public transport • New, different health care • Safer walking, cycling • Access to high-quality water• More community, cultural and

educational facilities • Wastewater, stormwater

servicesPhotos © Tauranga City Council

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Implications of population growth

Preserve:• Environment

• Cultural heritage

• Open spacePhoto © Indigo Pacific

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SmartGrowth - restrain or manage growth?

• SmartGrowth strategy based on:– restraining scale or rate of growth not practical

at sub-regional level

– forecast growth will be accommodated

– development needs to constrained to protect important natural, physical or cultural features

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Restrained growth

Activity / Mahi

1. List reasons for restraining growth at sub- regional level

2. Develop an idea for retraining growth

3. Describe practical implications and limitations

4. List of reasons in favour of unrestrained growth at a sub-regional level

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True / False Quiz

• Western BOP does not include a marine area• Population increased 4% from 1996 census• Population forecasts only for permanent

residents• Population growth implications - better roads,

more efficient public transport?• SmartGrowth aims to constrain development in

some areas of the sub region