14 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

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best offensive rebounder in the country, that opponents almost never make a 3-pointer against Duke’s defense, that they score more points per possession than any other team—we focus on the weaknesses. The Blue Devils don’t have a dominant athlete. They’re too reliant on three scorers. They don’t have enough of a post presence on offense. They’re susceptible to aggressive driving guards.

And maybe that’s all true, but it hasn’t mattered this season, because the goal of basketball is not to get the most dunks or block the most shots or run the fastest fast break. Instead, the goal is to score more points than your opponent over the same number of possessions. And in scoring points and preventing their opponents from doing so, the Blue Devils’ strengths more than make up for their weaknesses.

On offense, Duke does rely heavily on three players. Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith take just about 75 percent of Duke’s shots. But any team would kill to have them because they never turn the ball over and aver-

age just about one point per shot attempt. It makes sense to let your best offensive players shoot the most.

And while Zoubek isn’t the flashiest big man, he’s among the most effective at creating scoring opportunities for his higher-scoring teammates. Nearly a quarter of Duke’s missed shots end up in Zoubek’s hands as offensive rebounds. A full 40 percent of Duke’s missed shots turn into offensive rebounds for someone on the team. It seems obvious, but an offensive rebound is hugely valuable; it gives Singler, Scheyer and Smith another opportunity to shoot.

A typical Duke possession might go like this: Smith shoots a mid-range jumper, which rims out. Zoubek awkwardly controls the rebound and passes back out to Scheyer. Four passes later, Smith shoots another mid-range jumper, which goes in. The end result is two points. Meanwhile, a typical Kentucky possession might start with a steal at halfcourt by John Wall and end in a reverse alley-oop by Eric Bledsoe. The end result is still two points, but any observer would probably peg Kentucky as the better offensive team.

But the computer doesn’t pick and choose possessions to analyze. The computer doesn’t use an eye test. The

FANAROFF from page 4computer sees one possession for Duke and one posses-sion for Kentucky, and two points for each team. And the computer sees that over the course of the season, Duke scores more points per possession than anyone else, largely because grabbing offensive rebounds and avoid-ing turnovers allow the Blue Devils to take so many shots. Duke has shot the ball 2,045 times, seventh-most in the country, despite only playing at the 158th-fastest pace.

The same thing goes for defense. The subjective ob-server sees the blocked shots of Kansas’s Cole Aldrich and the steals of Syracuse’s Andy Rautins. Then he watches Duke get abused by backdoor cuts and dribble penetration by Georgetown and N.C. State. But the computer sees only possessions and points allowed over the course of the whole season, and it knows that Duke is ranked fourth in the country in points allowed per possession because the Blue Devils prevent their op-ponents from taking and making 3-pointers.

It doesn’t conform to our preconceived notions of what makes a college basketball team great, but when you remove those preconceived notions, it becomes obvious that Duke’s style has worked all season long. There’s no reason to believe that all of a sudden it’ll stop working in the Tournament.

So don’t believe your eyes. Do believe the numbers. There’s no guarantee that Duke will win the national championship—anything can happen in a single elimi-nation tournament—but the data says the Blue Devils should be the favorites.

IAN SOILEAU/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO

Brian Zoubek’s rebounding ability, especially on the offensive end, has helped Duke become one of the nation’s most efficient squads.