Is it a new discussion? The discussion in 1900 1920: Will it be
diesel, electric or steam in the future !
Slide 3
What will you hear? Goals to achieve Bus classification Trends
and topics Reliability & TCO Strategy Conclusions Steps to a
sustainable future
Slide 4
Goals to achieve! There are at least 150 different definitions
of sustainability We wont solve that today! What is important for
you on this moment in sustainability! Factors may be: CO2
transition (W-W or T-W) Emissions: NOx; SOx en CH & PM score
(W-W or T-W) Noise (reduction) Disturbed view Use of toxic
substances (Batteries!) Use of natural resources ; Cradle to Cradle
& re - use of materials
Slide 5
Classification of Possibilities Once you know your goals, you
will be confronted with questions such as.. What are the expected
future developments? How reliable are possible solutions ? AND: how
about the TCO? To match your ambitions: four categories! Just going
on but greener Moving half way Going green now Greening step by
step Four categories of buses
Slide 6
First category: just going on but more sustainable
Possibilities: Driver folowing system Euro 6 Biogas /CNG Biofuel
Lightweight bus GTL etc.
Slide 7
Hybrid bus (Diesel electric) Bus with diesel and electric
motor; braking energy is stored as electricity and used Two kinds:
parallel en serial Serial for short distance city traffic; Parallel
for longer driving distances Effects: Average savings in fuel
15-30% Purchase costs higher (> 50.000 for 12m bus) Average TCO
comparable with standard bus Proven technology for most
manufacturers Second category: major step in the right direction
Source: hydrogen bus rapport EU Four categories of buses
Slide 8
Electric (battery) bus overnight charging in garage High first
costs (+ 100.000 ) Low energy costs Too short battery range (200
250km) for use on longer or all-day lines; Trolleybus High initial
costs but long living buses Wire costs a lot of money (construction
& maintenance) Good TCO only by very high patronage Hydrogen
bus Price still very high: 0,9 - 1,5 million Interesting for the
future No good TCO in the near future Third category: Going Green
Now! the details Four categories of buses
Slide 9
Fourth Category: Choose for a system in which the battery is
charged during the working hours of the bus or use extenders to
extend the range of your bus Possibilities: electric (battery) bus
or hybrid bus with recharging options Charging inductiv or
conductiv Bus with extender (diesel or hydrogen ) Fourth category:
greening step by step Four categories of buses
Slide 10
Trends and topics Main points: Driver instruction programs do
help: results up to 10/15% are reported Euro VI is still the king
of the manufacturers presentations Gas (CNG / Biogas) is going down
in interest: Manufactures only make them on demand but dont promote
them any more; Operators aren't enthusiastic Logic: the emissions
are comparable with Euro VI A light weight bus can result in 10%
use of diesel GTL (Gas to Liquid) in Euro VI results in lower
emissions (but higher prize) What is interesting for category
I
Slide 11
Trends and topics Number of years to break even point goes
down; now around 7-8 years Maintenance cost are going down Number
of buses sold still growing (Volvo > 2000) What is interesting
for category II the hybrid bus euro VI light weight gas Nice
Slide 12
Trends and topics Range battery bus still not more than about
200 250 km Possibilities of batteries grow but very slow Weight of
batteries still high --> number of passengers lower 2000 kg = 25
passengers What is interesting for category III battery bus
Slide 13
Trends and topics Hydrogen bus: FC bus roll out started Now
plans for 267 buses in the next years But up to 8000 (before 2025)
are needed to get the TCO price down. What is interesting for
category III Hydrogen bus
Slide 14
Trends and topics Hybrid plug-in bus now in Stockholm, Oslo and
Hamburg. Plans for Luxembourg and Montreal Almost ready for normal
duty Short loading time (5-6 minutes) on conductiv loading Always a
big range for your bus And also a good result (80% lower emission /
65% fuel reduction) Until now only Volvo and Hybricon What is
interesting for category IV Plug-in hybrid
Slide 15
Trends and topics The very interesting part of the developments
now Many demonstration projects Conductive: mostly in Scandinavia,
Swiss and Germany Inductive : mostly in England and Germany
Conductive biggest potential at this moment (loading up to 600kW
working on 1000; inductive up tot 200kW) Main discussion: the
combination: Battery charging infrastructure/possibilities time for
loading What is interesting for category IV Plug-in battery
bus
Slide 16
Trends and topics Trolley 2.0! What is interesting for category
IV in motion charging
Slide 17
The reliability of the buses (12m) Hybrids almost same as a
diesel (18m bit behind) Trolley very reliable Hydrogen will be
fully reliable in five years from now Plug-in, CIM and extender
will be reliable in some years Hydrogen extender also in some years
The development in time Bus typeNow2016201820202025 2030 I All type
I buses *) II All hybrids III Battery bus Trolley Hydrogen IV
Plug-in battery bus 12m Plug-in hybrid bus 12m in motion Charging
Battery bus+diesel ext. Battery bus+hydrogen ext. LEGENDA Rel.
equal to diesel or better Rel. up to 25% worse than diesel Rel.
from 25% worse than diesel *) gas bit worse than diesel
Slide 18
The TCO of the buses (12m) Hybrids almost same as a diesel
Hydrogen will stay very pricy for the coming years Plug-in very
interesting; Extenders are nice alternative The development in time
Bus typeNow2016201820202025 2030 I All type I buses II All hybrids
III Battery bus Trolley (heavy = green) Hydrogen IV Plug-in battery
bus 12m Plug-in hybrid bus 12m in motion Charging (heavy = green)
Battery bus + diesel extender Battery bus +hydrogen extender
LEGENDA TCO equal to diesel or better TCO up to 25% worse than
diesel TCO from 25% worse than diesel
Slide 19
Where to use which bus? *) Serial hybrids are better in the
city, Parallel hybrids better on the long stretches The battery bus
has a maximum range of ca 250 km/day. So not suitable for long
duties The trolley / CIM is only suitable for heavy traffic (TCO)
mostly not in rural areas Diesel, hydrogen, (plug-in) Hybrids and
extenders: whole range Some guidelines Bus type / line
classification (inner-) City City - Agglo Agglo Rural BRT/HQBSPeak
linesAll day I All type I buses*) II Parallel hybrids*) Serial
hybrids*) III Battery bus(< 200km!) **) Trolley*)**)
Hydrogen*)**) IV Plug-in battery bus*) Plug-in hybrid bus*) in
motion Charging*) Battery bus + diesel ext.*) Battery bus +
hydrogen ext.*) LEGENDA Suitable Less suitable *) scheme for 12m
buses; different for longer buses! Important for BRT **) if not
special for this service
Slide 20
Strategy of choosing: A strategy of choosing the right bus on
the right moment. The A B C of choosing!
Slide 21
To choose the right bus on the right place: take this three
steps: Strategy of choosing: Just an A B C!
AnalyzeBlendConclude
Slide 22
First step: Analyze: Sustainability: where are you now &
where do you want to be in 5- 10-15 years? Moment of change of your
buses (degrees of freedom) Net structure: is a new network plan
necessary ? Net structure: what kind of lines do you have what kind
of buses are needed? Short / long lines - City / Agglo / regional -
Peak / all day Low / high density / BRT - Trolley lines? Time in
between trips (time to charge ?) and where Strategy of choosing A:
Analyze AnalyseBlend Conclude Result : Global transition planning
(what do you want when) Network structure (optional: Network plan)
Charging point options (optional)
Slide 23
Second step: Blend Make a planning of the network needs (basis:
the network plan): Divide your buses in categories: length /
capacity and moment of renewal (in numbers of buses / categories)
Divide your network in categories: net structure characteristics
and technique Strategy of choosing B: Blend (1) AnalyseBlend
Conclude Bus type / line classification (inner-) City City- Agglo
Agglo - Rural BRT Peak lines All day 20168 / 10m bus 12m bus 18m
bus 24m bus Trolley (m)*) 20188 / 10m bus 12m bus 18m bus 24m bus
Trolley (m)
Slide 24
Second step: Blend Make your blend of possibilities (based on
TCO / Reliability) Take the planning matrix of the last sheet
Combine the matrix with the matrix which kind of sustainable bus is
usable in each cell Result : your possible sustainable
opportunities on the short and long time (for every matrix cell)
Combine this result with the reliability / TCO of possible systems:
wipe out the wrong ones Result : your real possibilities in the
four categories Strategy of choosing B: Blend (2) AnalyseBlend
Conclude Result : Planning # buses / category for renewal each year
Possibilities to choose for each category
Slide 25
Third step: Conclude Make a list of aspects to make your choice
for each year (or combination of years) Aspects may be: just go on,
# different kind of buses, TCO/reliability, possibilities charging
in motion, investment costs and so on. Mind! The discussion
charging points / battery capacity / waiting time at stops or in
the bus circulation Make a decision plan with a multi-criteria tool
Strategy of choosing C: Conclude AnalyseBlend Conclude Result :
Planning # buses / category / sustainable technique for renewal
each year
Slide 26
Strategy of choosing Examples
Slide 27
Strategy of choosing It isnt easy...
Slide 28
11 juli 2014 Chris Verweijen Conclusions What you want to
achieve? Rearrange your network Analyze your needs Blend your
possibilities Conclude what is possible for you And: KEEP IT
SIMPLE! Evolution is better than revolution!
Slide 29
Your questions! But: if you make things too complicated...
Slide 30
Dont hesitate to contact me! [email protected] Tel:
0031-6-53527914 For any questions:
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