2009 START Research Review Online

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    w | 2009acenterofexcellenceoftheU.s.departmentofhomelandsecuritybasedattheuniversityofmaryland

    nationalconsortiumforthestudyofterrorismandresponsesto

    2009researchrev

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    2 vw | 2009

    About START

    heonlConsorumorheudyoerrorsmndesponseso

    errorsm,knownsSTART,openedsdoorsnJnury5.Ismsson:

    ousese-o-he-rheores,mehodsnddromhesoclnd

    behvorlscencesobeerundersndheorgns,dynmcsndsocl

    ndpsychologclmpcsoerrorsm.

    Fundedbynnl$mllonCeneroExcellencegrnromheU..

    eprmenoomelndecurys(DHS)cence&echnologyrecore,

    STARTslgnedwhhedrecoresumnFcors/Behvorlcences

    vson.STARTlsorecevessupporromunswhnDHS,ncludnghe

    FederlEmergencyMngemengencyndhernsporonecury

    dmnsron,ndromoherederlsources,suchsheonlcenceFoundon,heonlInsueoJuscendheeprmenoeense.

    STARTsreserchsnendedobenehomelndsecuryproessonls

    heederl,sendlocllevels.Ioersnsghsnompornpolcy

    ssues,ncludnghowodsruperrorsneworks,reducehencdence

    oerrorsmndenhncehereslenceosoceynheceoerrors

    hres.STARTsmjorreserchresreerrorsmgroupormonnd

    recrumen,errorsgroupperssencenddynmcsndhesocel

    mpcoerrorsm.hesehreeocusresrebsedonhedevelopmenl

    cycleogroupsemployngerrorsm,whchrcessorgnsrdclzon,

    lespnoperonsndnervenonsndmpccommunyreslence.

    STARTlsodoesworkhcuscrossllhreeosmjorreserchres,

    whprojecssuchsheGloblerrorsmbse,nopen-source

    dbseonerrorsevensroundheworldsnce97.

    occomplshsmsson,STARTbrngsogehermul-nsuonl,

    muldscplnryemoexpers,ncludngcrmnologss,polclscenss,socologss,psychologss,geogrphers,economss,hsorns

    ndpublchelhexpers.WhdmnsrveofcesheUnversyo

    Mrylnd,STARTworksncollboronwhnerly5flensuons

    romroundheworld.

    Inddon,STARTsdedcedornngndmenorngnew

    generonoscholrsndnlysscpbleoexmnngquesonsbou

    hebehvoroerrorssnderrorsgroupsndhowsoceescnbes

    prepreordelngwherrorshresorrespondngoerrorscks.

    STARTsupporshehomelndsecurypolcycommunybygenerng

    scencllyvldedndngshnormoperonsndpolces

    nvolvngerrorsmprevenon,hredeecon,counererrorsm,

    preprednessndresponse,communyrecoveryndrskcommuncon.

    In9,STARTrecevedCerceoecognonromheDHScence

    ndechnologyrecore,OfceoUnversyProgrms,recognzngs

    ousndngconrbuonsohesecuryohenonbydevelopngheGloblerrorsmbse.

    2 Leer rom he recor

    3 oe rom he Edors

    421 F d pj

    4 ers nd Mnds

    6 Underlyng Movons

    8 Moscs o Mnory Volence

    10 Crmnl Volence nd errorsm

    12 Mgne or errorsm?

    14 oxc Connecons

    16 eerrence or Bcklsh?

    18 Publc Prepredness or errors

    20 Communy eslence

    2229 pj mm

    22 errors Group Formon

    nd ecrumen 24 errors Group Perssence nd ynmcs

    26 ocl esponses o errors hres nd cks

    28 Ongong Projecs

    30 eserchers

    31 Educon Progrms

    32 CredsNatiatitStTiaRtTi,9 a D

  • 8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online

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    START oers insights into importantpolicy issues, includin how to

    disrupt terrorist networks, reducethe incidence o terrorism andenhance the resilience o societyin the ace o terrorist threats.

    nationalconsortiumforthestudyofterrorismandresponsesto

    00researchrev

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    2 vw | 2009

    Letter from the Director

    Welcome to the first edition of the START Research Review,ndhnkyouoryourneresnhe

    workoheonlConsorumorheudyoerrorsmndesponsesoerrorsm(START).

    heunderlyngphlosophyoSTARTshundersndngcomplex,globlphenomenonsuchs

    errorsmrequreshebesndhebrghesromdscplnescrosshebehvorlndsoclscences.

    Moreover,wessumehnosngleunversyorreserchnsuehsmonopolyonllohebes

    mehodsndknowledge.ccordngly,STARThsssembledmul-nsuonl,muldscplnryem

    whresercherspproxmely5unversesndreserchnsuesroundheworld.Usngse-

    o-he-rmehods,romexpermenldoeldsurveys,romsophscedqunvenlyses

    ocsesudes,STARTsconrbungodeeperundersndngohesourcesoerrorsmndhebes

    wysorsoceesocounercndmgeerrorsmseecs.sU..eprmenoomelnd

    ecuryCeneroExcellence,STARTbrdgeshecdemc,governmenndprvereserchsecorsndendevorsoconsnlymprovehequlyohenlyssproduces.

    Unversyscenssrdonllyhvepublshedheresulsoherreserchnechnclrepors

    ndproessonljournls,whchrenowdelycrculedmongpolcymkersndnon-cdemcs.

    Ourreserchemhsbeenseekngwysoshresmpornndngsnlessrdonlwys.hs

    rsedonohesah viwseresocusesonshor,hghlyvsulsummreshhghlghsome

    oourmjorreserchdscoveresromhepsyer.Forexmple,ddyouknowhhevsmjory

    ocksbyoregnn-mercnerrorsgroupsrecrredounhehoscounryoheerrors

    grouprherhngnsheU..homelnd?Orhmercnsremuchmorelkelyoprepreor

    nurlhzrdslkeerhqukesndorndoeshnorerrorsm?

    hedebehndheSTARTsah viwsogveredersnovervewoprojecshwehve

    oundespecllyneresngndhhvendngsrelevnonon-cdemcs.Ocourse,orhose

    whmorespeclzedorechnclneress,welsoprovdenormononhowoobncomplee

    scencreporsorechohesudesrevewedhere.PlesevsourWebsewww.stat.md.do

    ndmuchmoredelednormonboureserch,educonndourechopporunes.

    hnkyougnoryourneresnSTART.Ihopehhsovervewoourworkwllencourgeyouoexmnemoreullyourreserchndoconsderhowhesendngseceorsocounererrorsm.

    ncerely,

    G LF, it

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    vw | 2009

    Note from the Editors

    Since it began operations in 2005 ,STARThssupporedmorehnreserchprojecsdesgned

    oexpndourknowledgeohesoclndbehvorlspecsoerrorsm.oughlyhlohesewere

    nedn5,ndhlhebegnnngoSTARTssecondreserchcyclen.swouldbe

    expeced,heerlerseoreserchprojecsshemosmure,sosheresulsoselecono

    heseprojecshweshowcsenhe9sah viw,STARTsrssuchpublcon.

    WebegnexplorngSTARTsreserchbyhghlghngnneosreserchprojecsnwhwehope

    rederswllndobeccessblevsulzonsooencomplexopcsndmehodologes.Weseleced

    rommongSTARTsprojecshosehhvelredyyeldedconcreendpolcy-relevnndngs,len

    hemselveswellovsulrepresenonndrepreseneddversyoSTARTsreserchhemes.

    hepresenonoheseprojecsdeprsromhesndrdcdemcorm;ndeed,hs

    reecsheprmrypurposeoheviwomkeSTARTsreserchccessblendneresngonudencebeyondrdonlcdem.hejourneyowrdshecreonoheviwcovered

    unmlrbulwysneresngground,yewehvecomeobelevehhsprccesvluble

    oneorencourgnghencorporonoscencreserchndngsnorel-worldproblemsolvng

    nddecsonmkng.hesmeme,werelzehnorderorheresulsoSTARTsreserchobe

    kenserously,hescencebehndhemmusbernspren.hereore,weprovdehyperlnksorech

    oheprojecsdescrbednherevew,whchwllkerederseherdreclyomorecomprehensve

    descrponsohereserchnvolved,oroprojecpgeowhchddonlresourcesreledohe

    projecwllbeddedsheybecomevlble.

    Follownghehghlghedprojecs,weprovdebrenroduconsncludngsummryndngs

    wherevlbleoechoheoherreserchprojecslunchedn5.Weencourgerederso

    exploremorecloselyhoseprojecshspurhernereshroughhelnksprovdedorbyconcng

    STARTdrecly.WelsosuggesvsngheSTARTWebsewww.stat.md.d,whchconnsr

    moreexensvecolleconoreserch,polcyndeduconresourceshncnbedescrbedhere.

    errorsmndsvrouscuses,processesndeecsonsoceyrelkelyoremnpromnen

    securyconcern.hebesresponsesohshrerehosedrvenbyclerundersndngohesephenomen,nundersndnghmusbebseduponsoundscencreserch.Wehopehhe

    presenonoSTARTsreserchnheollowngpgeswllbrodenyourhnkngonhesessues

    nddemonsrehevluehhesoclscencescnbrngoddressngsuchvlproblemss

    prevenngrdclzonhledsovolence,selecngpolceshvodexcerbngerrors

    cksndbuldnggreerreslencenourcommunes.

    ncerely,

    G . ndMw

    eserchevew 2009 Edits

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    results hehreechrsrghshowhe

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    lesseverlMuslm-mjorycounres,

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    mosrskorsupporngorenggngnerrorsm,

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    suppororerrorsmnheIslmcworld.

    Formorenormononhsprojec,plesevs:

    www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj2.

    Underlying MotivationsT R U, F Ex

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    The diagram at let illustrates various paths to individualism, collectivism and the

    connection to support or terrorism that highlights this research. w | 2009

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    w | 2009

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    w | 2009 w | 2

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    w | 2009

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    smlrnervenonswouldhvesmlreecsohoseseennorhernIrelnd.

    Formorenormononhsprojec,plesevs:

    www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj7.

    eterrence or Backlash? B

    I

    Laree, Laura ugan & aven Korte

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    veyexploredourquesons:

    t have meicans done to pepae fo

    ist acts and disastes?

    t steps have meicans taken to avoid o

    ce exposue to teoism?

    t motivates meicans to pepae fo

    ism in paticula, to pepae fo disastes

    neal and to avoid teoism isk?

    can policy and pogams to incease public

    iness fo teoism accomplish moe?

    nreserchndheorybouwh

    eshouseholdrednessbehvor,d

    lecedonhemnycorshmgh

    publcredness,ncludng:psevens

    nced;heypes,sourcesndchnnelsover

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    normonprovdedbygenceshelocl,se

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    seresosophscedssclmodels.

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    www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj8.

    m pb p

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    mllngorvrleec.

    A portion o the survey examined the preparedness or

    avoidance actions Americans have taken. Preparedness

    actions surveyed included whether respondents had

    developed emergency plans, stockpiled supplies, purchased

    things to make them saer, learned more about terrorism,

    duplicated important documents or become more vigilant.

    Respondents were also asked about avoidance actions,

    specifcally whether they had avoided travel by plane, train

    or public transportation, changed their handling o mail,

    avoided certain cities, avoided tall buildings or avoided

    national landmarks. This fgure illustrates the responses

    received rom 3,300 survey respondents.

    ublic Preparedness for Terrorism N D Ex

    a ourque, ennis Mileti, Megumi Kano & Michele Wood

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    w | 2009

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    hsnvolvesenggngocusgroupsnd

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    6 wreness o communy ssues

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    8 People hve hope or he uure

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    *Eachitemcontibutestotheoveallesilienceofacommunity.

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    paticulaimplementation.

    Community ResilT R T

    etty Pfefferbaum, ose Pfefferbaum &

    w | 2

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    -Q

    atiat

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    presenedsU..wronIslm.

    Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:

    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj10.

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    heprojecexmnedprmrysources

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    Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:

    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj11.

    M u

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    prcpns,swellsqunvenlyses

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    reserch.

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    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj12.

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    hat a th sial dynamis gading

    th spad xtmist idlgis amng

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    colleceddonhepresenceordcl

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    M u

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    mhanisms in Indnsian sity?

    ta

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    STARTreserchershvebegunusng

    conennlyssocodendclssy

    mssmedsourcesndhvecondu

    reserchonmoblzonprocesses

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    nordclsm.e.,medpersus

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    hreechernernlneress

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    Formorenormononhsreserc

    www.stat.md.d/AR09/pj14.

    Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007 gp Fmn nd mn

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    vw | 2009

    atiat

    usnCuerndnshengGuo

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    heprojecnvolvedgeo-reerencng

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    mercnscnggnsdomescrges

    hroughouhenon,whconcenronsnheorhes,FlordndheMdwes,

    swellsonheWesCos.

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    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj15.

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    errorsscounonseresponseo

    hercksordclzendmoblze

    errorssymphzers.eresponse,o

    heexenhnjuresorourgeshose

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    hemselves.hssheerrorssregy

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    greersrenghgnssel.Counerng

    hssregyrequresvodngcollerl

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    hsperspecve,dynmcmodelohe

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    seresponsewllneedoncludehe

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    nheseckedndpossblyrelevn

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    shecycleocksndresponses

    connuesoverme.oehhesehree

    elemensnsnewogenerlesh

    relredymlr:errorsmspolcs,

    ndsuccessgnserrorsscnnobe

    evluedbycounngdederrorss.

    Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:

    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj16.

    u Mu :

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    Formorenormononhsre

    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj18

    Source: Glbal ism atabas

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    F

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    ta

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    hypoheszedoreecrllyeec

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    u- :

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    M u? x

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    Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:

    www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj21.

    : x

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    Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007 gp pn nd dYnm

  • 8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online

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    vw | 2009

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  • 8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online

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    26 vw | 2009

    Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007L pn nd K

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  • 8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online

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    vw | 2009

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    28 vw | 2009

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    Ongoing Research Projects

  • 8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online

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    vw | 2009

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    30 vw | 2009

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    Education Programshrough curriculum development, scholarship and fellowshipprograms and intensive research training, START trains and mentorsthe next generation of terrorism scholars and analysts.

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    MotivationsandIntentsofTerroristsandTerroristGroups;

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    32 vw | 2009

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    errorism and its variouscauses, processes and eectson society are likely to remain

    a prominent security concern.he best responses to thisthreat are those driven by aclear understandin o thesephenomena, an understandin

    that must be based uponsound scientifc research.

    Acknoledgements his matial is basd pn wk spptd by th in and hnlgy ditat th U.. patmnt Hmland ity nd gant awad nmbs00140510629 and 2008-ST-061-ST0004, mad t th Natinal Cnstim th tdy ism and spnss t ism (START, www.stat.md.d. h viws and nlsins nin this dmnt a ths th aths and shld nt b intptd as nssaily psnting th ial pliis, ith xpssd implid, th U.. patmnt Hmland ity

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