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National Black MBA Association – Metro New York Chapter

2012 C.A.S.H. PROGRAM STUDENT CASE COMPETITION

2012 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION

Written by Program Director, Tyrone Scott

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Table of Contents

Prologue…………………………………….…………………………………………...……Pg. 3

The Major Issues……………………………………………………………………….……Pg. 7

The U.S. Economy

Healthcare

Debt and Spending

Taxes

Other Important Issues…..……………………………………………………..……….…Pg. 13

Immigration

Women & Race

Education

Energy

War and U.S. Foreign Policy

Foreign Politics

Candidate: President Barack Obama, Democrat…………………………………………Pg. 18

Pros

Cons

Candidate: Governor Mitt Romney, Republican………………………………………….Pg. 21

Pros

Cons

How the Electoral College Works…………………………………………………….…...Pg. 24

Presidential Election History……………………………………………………………...Pg. 26

Epilogue.……………………………………………………………………………….…...Pg. 27

Case Questions…………………………………………………………………………..….Pg. 28

Case Competition Instructions…………………………………………………….………Pg. 29

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Prologue

A presidential election year is upon us and yet again it will be a pivotal turning point in our nation’s history.

President Barack Obama (Democrat) will likely face former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney

(Republican) in the general election come this November. Gov. Romney is still yet to officially win the

Republican nomination but that is a mere formality as this case goes to print. He WILL be the opponent that

President Obama will face off against to seek his second term in office. This case will lay out many of the

issues that both candidates face in the six months leading to the November 6 election. It will explore the

primary issues that each must address if he is to win and it will also discuss issues that are not the main issues

of this election cycle but will nevertheless play an important role on either or both men.

There are too many issues to think about when considering a U.S. presidential election, which is why it is

critical to focus on the main issues at play along with a few of the secondary issues. Another point to think

about is what may be a major issue for one group of people may or may not be important to another. This is

called ideology. And each and every one of us has our own ideology. Some have stronger convictions than

others but we all still have a set of guiding principles that defines us as people and as citizens. As such, there

are still critical issues that bring us all together. The September 11 attacks were a perfect example of that.

There are also just as critical issues that divide us, such as the political process in our country. Then there are

things that no matter what ‘side’ one is on, everyone is impacted the same. That would be the case with our

current economic situation in the country and in the world for that matter. We are ever so slowly coming out

of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a

Republican or a Democrat, young or old, rich or poor, black or white, everyone has felt its pain, albeit some

more than others. But there is one fact that is undeniable by anyone from an economic expert to a political

novice; the economy and the jobs issue will BY FAR be the #1 topic that decides this year’s election.

In addition to the economy and jobs being major factors that impact all sides of the argument, other factors

are not far behind in terms of being just as important. These are considered major issues as well. They

include the debate over healthcare with the perils surrounding the Affordable Care Act signed into law by

President Obama during his first year in office. Presidents have been trying for over 100 years to bring

healthcare to nearly all Americans, and even so it has now been accomplished, its very constitutionality is at

question. And what of the cost of this healthcare law and the rising cost of healthcare in our nation in

general? This topic along with the other economic heavyweights will also be a primary factor in who wins the

White House in the fall. Another major issue that comes to the forefront during this election cycle is the debt

and spending argument. Debt is simply how much money the federal government owes to its debtors,

primarily foreign governments and other private investors. But debt is also an important factor down to the

average American family level. With a ruined economy and some 15-million people being out of work, many

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are finding themselves in the same kind of debt the federal government faces. And when you have no job

and no money and no way to pay it back, debt is never a good thing to have too much of. This brings us to

the spending side of the equation. Many will argue that the only way to jumpstart the economy is to spend

our way out of it. They say this will lead to the creation of American jobs, exports to foreign buyers and the

like. Still others say excess, lavish and wasteful spending is what contributed to the mess in the first place.

Either way, the debt vs. spending argument will play a major role in both candidates’ strategies throughout

the summer and into the fall election. Another major factor impacting this election is the oft dreaded ‘T’

word—taxes. We all have to pay them, everyone from a mom and pop store to a major corporation but the

approach to the tax issue is one topic that could not have President Obama and Governor Romney further

apart as we will discuss later.

Now then, if all of the above issues were considered major factors in this year’s election, then what could

possibly be considered secondary or even tertiary factors that will decide our next president? Well some of

these issues may not necessarily be monetary hot buttons but what many of them have in common is they are

ideological hot buttons. Take the topic of immigration for example. With the rising number of both legal

and illegal immigrants in our country, both Democrats and Republicans are embracing blueprints on how to

handle this tide of new people. And just like the candidates’ approaches on taxes, again the issue of

immigration couldn’t have the two or their respective parties further apart. Whereas the Democrats have at

least seemed pro-immigration with policies and pathways to citizenship, the Republican Party has fought it

with controversial individual state laws in the name of security as we will discuss later.

Another set of sensitive topics that are in the forefront in 2012 are issues strongly impacting women and the

issue of race and race relations in the U.S. The media would have us believe that the election of the nation’s

first African-American president in 2008 would put an end to the race relations discussion in the U.S. That is

a notion that is beyond laughable in 2012. And women’s issues have never been a more divisive topic of late

as they are in 2012. It only takes one to recall the Congressional testimony of a Georgetown University law

student named Sandra Fluke to understand the importance of women’s issues and the impact women will

have in this election. Fluke, who on February 16, 2012 was testifying in support of the Affordable Care Act

to the House of Representatives Democratic Steering and Policy Committee on the importance of

contraceptives for students. Her testimony itself was not the issue, and we may not even know her name to

this day had it not been for one Rush Limbaugh, the oft controversial and highly inflammatory conservative

talk radio show host, who made such disparaging remarks about Fluke, whom he did not know, that they

weren’t even worth printing in this case. The point being is that it caused such an uproar of controversy and

put Fluke and all women on center stage all while stoking the political and ideological fires in all of us. The

incident was such a hot topic to a seemingly innocent college student that President Obama personally called

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Fluke to commend her on her outspokenness and to remind her to think little of the statements of a man

filled with so much hate.

Other issues that are considered top tier factors playing a role in the election are energy and education. No

less than two Republican presidential candidates have named these two government departments as targets of

reduction or abolishment altogether. And President Obama has been given flack from all sides on his

support or non-support of oil companies, coal energy companies, clean energy companies, and the like.

When it comes to energy and education, there is never an end to the critics no matter what policy a candidate

adopts. That brings us to war and the U.S. foreign policy. We are still technically fighting two foreign wars in

2012. Although the Iraq war is winding down and troops have all but left the country, we still remain

committed to long-term troop presence in Afghanistan. Just within the last week, President Obama made a

secret overnight trip to the warzone in Afghanistan to sign a 12-year agreement with the Afghan president

that promises even though we are ending our military presence there, we will still maintain a peacekeeping

presence through 2024.

In addition to war and the U.S. foreign policy in general, one has to consider the political atmosphere across

the globe right as we go to print with this case. The Arab spring of 2010 and 2011 is still toppling long-time

dictators. The economic pressures in Europe are having the same effect on once promising political

candidates there as well. Just on May 6, French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost in his re-election bid to

Socialist candidate Francoise Hollande. Sarkozy became the 11th consecutive European leader to lose in a re-

election bid since the beginning of the world economic crisis. And for the untrained eye or novice person

who simply doesn’t understand the intertwined global connection, it might be very easy to say that such

events so far away from daily life in America have little to no effect on our own presidential election. That

view would be an unwise mistake.

Now that we have laid out all of the major issues of this year’s election, we will next look at each more in

depth. We will then explore this election from both candidates’ points of view and present the pros and cons

of both men. We will then once and for all explore how the Electoral College works and how it, not the

popular vote decides the presidency. We will also look at a historical view of previous presidential elections

and what insight they might provide us in 2012. By the time students have completed reviewing this case,

they will be among the most educated people in the country on just how the political process works in the

United States and what will determine the 2012 election. The reason the students will be the most

knowledgeable on the topic is actually quite sad—Americans do not take the time to truly understand how

politics and elections work and how we each play a very important role in the process. We can either choose

to get involved in that process or at the very least arm ourselves with knowledge. This is so that once we are

presented with a “pitch” on why we should vote for a certain candidate, we know the facts. The problem is

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many of us choose to act in the same ways we did generations ago. So despite the entire landscape changing

around us, we choose to be Democrats because we always were and so were our parents. Or we choose to

always vote for a Republican because that’s who our favorite president was. It’s almost unconscionable to

think about all the silly philosophies many American people use to vote for the holder of the most powerful

office on the planet. In terms of being aware of world affairs, we are already the laughing stock of the world

and what is even more embarrassing is that not many of us even care to understand how our own system

works. Why is it that a network like CNN has to constantly explain what the Electoral College is and how it

works? Why is it that someone puts on a negative attack ad because he or she is down in the polls and the

next thing you know, they are winning? And most importantly, when does this madness of blissful ignorance

end and people start doing what some people in other countries and even our recent ancestors fought and

died to do—VOTE! And on top of that, is it too much to ask to know what we are voting for and why we

are doing it versus letting outside and unknown factors tell us what to do? These are some of the things

students need to think about as they analyze this case. Things may not always be what they appear to be on

the surface, so the students will have to peel multiple layers of onions so to speak in order to come to a

conclusion about this election that they can support and defend to a critical audience. Once completed and if

the students put in the time and hard work of truly knowing the issues and the geo-political factors that will

ultimately decide this important election in our history; they will have done something that not a lot of us do

yet almost all of us who are eligible to vote should do. It is important to have sense of understanding topics

and issues that are of utmost importance to millions of people and only then make our own principled

decisions. This case will not be about sound bites, marketing campaigns or pitchmen trying to sway an

opinion, it will simply present facts. It will allow the students to understand the process and the importance

of all Americans educating themselves on key issues, and then exercising their right to vote once

knowledgeable about all sides of the story. Upon acquiring this knowledge, the student will then be asked to

present their interpretation of the 2012 election.

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The Major Issues

The U.S. Economy

Our economy is in a state of slow but painful recovery after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Both the

number of jobs gained (or lost) and the unemployment rate are two of the most widely watched statistics that

the government reports on at the end of each month. During normal or less trying economic times, these are

numbers that the average person could care less about, but with the economy the way it is, even the most

novice person knows what they mean now when they are reported. At the beginning of the next month,

these figures are reported for the previous month and they give an indication of just how much the economy

is recovering or not. The unemployment rate in particular is a bellwether for presidential elections. No

president in the last fifty or so years has ever won reelection with a national unemployment rate above 7.2%.

As of April, 2012 the U.S. unemployment rate now stands at 8.1%, down from a high during Obama’s turn in

office of 10.0% in October 2009. Table 1 below shows the monthly employment rate since the beginning of

2002. The decline in this rate has been steady from its recent October 2009 high but not fast enough for the

millions of Americans who are currently out of work. It is this fact that continues to be a thorn in President

Obama’s reelection campaign. After all, it was a sluggish economy that did in both former Presidents Carter

and Bush the father. As Figure 1 below shows, the number of jobs added in April, 2012 was not viewed as a

number that indicates a growing economy. April represented the third consecutive month of declining

increase in non-farming jobs after the number had showed consecutive months of increase prior to that

period. The 115,000 jobs added in April were the lowest since October, 2011. This graph also shows the

same 8.1% unemployment rate but also shows how even more severely blacks and Hispanics are being

impacted by the economy. The national unemployment rate for Hispanics is 10.3% and for blacks, it is even

worse at 13.0%. And all of these numbers only count the “unemployed”. They do not take into

consideration all of those that are “underemployed” and cannot find full-time work or have given up looking

for a job altogether. These people are not even included in the 8.1% national unemployment, and since so

many of them stopped looking the last couple of months, many economists feel this is why the rate has

dropped two consecutive months, not because things are improving.

If people do not have jobs, it is easy to blame the person holding the highest office in the land. A politician’s

policies are under greater scrutiny when millions are not working and are in the midst of long-term

unemployment, some greater than a year. This is the main charge that Gov. Romney will continue to use all

the way until November. He will stake a claim that President Obama’s policies have failed and have caused

the economy to worsen and have made it impossible for people to find decent jobs. And when one is down

and out and in debt, it is not a stretch for a person to believe anyone who comes along and says “I know a

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way that can get you out of this.” And the rhetoric can come from either side in this campaign, but

regardless, it is a sure bet that the words once uttered by then candidate Bill Clinton in 1992 will hold true

here twenty years later, “It’s the economy, stupid!” So with six months to go until the general election, it is a

safe bet that these last two months of the 2nd quarter of the year and the entire 3rd quarter will absolutely

decide who wins the White House. In looking at the previous two 3rd quarters of 2010 and 2011 from the

graphic below, neither presents a positive picture for President Obama. If these types of job growth or

declines are repeated this year, there may be nothing President Obama can do to save his presidency, no

matter how unpopular Gov. Romney may be with certain constituencies. Most economists think we need to

add at least 200,000 jobs per month at a sustainable clip to demonstrate real and significant economic growth.

And if that particular scenario begins to happen over the next six months, then it is Gov. Romney who would

need a miracle or a scandal to win in November.

Table 1: U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart by Year

Figure 1: U.S. Jobs by Month

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Healthcare

On March 23, 2010 when President Obama signed what was initially dubbed as the signature legislation of his

early presidency, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) was cheered by millions yet

perhaps drew an equal amount of jeers throughout the land. The law was designed to provide healthcare

coverage for more than 30 million of the over 46 million Americans (see Figure 2) that currently do not

have coverage. However, when it was still a bill being voted on by both houses of Congress, it was passed

explicitly along party lines with nearly all Democrats voting for it and all Republicans voting against it. Here

was a piece of legislation that the country had been waiting for 100+ years to see finally become law and yet

something that was such a basic need for so many became a lightning rod. The passage of this law helped

energize the far right conservative moment for its enormous cost and fear of too much government say-so in

people’s lives. It, along with Obama’s election itself paved the way for the Tea Party movement. But what

was all of the anger and frustration about when so many Americans did not have access to basic health

insurance? Let’s look at some of the highlights that the ACA offered and then you make your own

assessment as to whether this was a good policy for the new president to tackle right off the bat. Various

components of the law are currently scheduled to take effect between 2010 and 2020.

Made it a requirement for insurers to offer the same premium to all applicants (provided same age

and location) without regard to pre-existing conditions

Small businesses able to get a subsidy if they buy insurance through an exchange

Annual and lifetime coverage caps placed by insurance companies would be banned

All persons not covered by employer plans, Medicare or Medicaid or other public insurance

programs would be required by law to buy into health insurance or pay a penalty

Children would be allowed to remain on their parents insurance until their 26th birthday, even those

who no longer live with their parents

Insurers are prohibited from dropping policyholders when they get sick

All new plans must cover certain preventive care services such as mammograms and colonoscopies

Mandatory provide coverage for contraceptives with the exception of churches and houses of

worship

These are just some of the components of the law. But the entire law itself has been called into question.

The law was designed to provide healthcare for more Americans while asking everyone to pay their fair share

of rising healthcare costs in hopes to save the entire system from collapsing. Democrats, the poor and the

sick saw this as a truly life-changing piece of legislation, but conservatives and some in the business

community saw it as a big government play to invade state’s rights by forcing people to buy insurance.

Despite its many benefits, as new phases of the law kick in, many have grown increasingly against it. As a

result, some 29 states have introduced legislation at the state level to opt-out of the law. And after multiple

lawsuits at the Federal level, the U.S. Supreme Court recently heard arguments from both sides on the law.

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Early indication based on the justices questioning is that President Obama’s signature piece of legislation is in

grave danger of being deemed at unconstitutional or greatly diminished at best. The decision is expected to

come by the end of June when the justices will announce their decision. And given the current makeup of

the Supreme Court, most expect the law will be voted down 5-4, primarily along ideological lines as opposed

to a pure constitutionality decision. Either way, this pending decision will serve as a rallying cry for both

supporters and opposition alike. And it will provide fighting points for either candidate.

Debt and Spending

The current U.S. national debt is $15.7-trillion dollars. That’s trillion, with a ‘T’. That total continues to grow

as evidenced by the real-time national debt clock on www.usdebtclock.org. A national debt basically means

the amount of “public” money the U.S. government owes to individuals, corporations and countries around

the world. The debt is so large right now that it is actually bigger than our Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

which is a measure of how much the economy is growing. The fact that the national debt has surpassed the

value of the GDP ($15.1-trillion) has become a major rallying cry for budgetary conservatives. They tend to

blame Obama solely for this trend in the escalation of debt. They say this because the national debt was only

$9.7-trillion in 2008 when Obama was elected, while GDP stood at $13.8-trillion. Furthermore, the

Figure 2: Total and Percent of Americans with no Health Insurance

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conservatives, in particular the Tea Party crowd tends to talk about how the debt burden will be something

that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with. There is absolutely some truth to this no matter

what political party you support. The 2016 estimated national debt will be somewhere around $22-trillion,

while GDP will only be around $17-trillion. That means we will continue to grow our debt more than we

grow the products and services and output that brings in money to the country, at an increasingly larger rate.

That is not a good trend for economic future prosperity. As everyone knows, when a bill collector is owed

money, he WILL come calling for it and do whatever it takes to get it.

The debt and the current trend of spending is why for the first time in our nation’s history, we lost our AAA

bond credit rating from. Standard and Poor’s who is one of the leading agencies that measures a company or

government’s ability to repay its debt believes that the U.S. government is the riskiest it has ever been. This

had ramifications worldwide because if the U.S., the world’s largest economy cannot pay its bills, what does

that say for the world economy? This reduction came after a prolonged battle between the president and

Congressional Republicans over raising the debt ceiling. This is the ability of the country to spend up to a

certain level. What was seemingly an easy decision and one that every president going back 75 years has

typically had a complete understanding with Congress on ended up being held hostage by a few right-wing

conservatives. And even though like every president before him, Mr. Obama was able to get his wish in

raising the debt ceiling, it cost the U.S. its rating down to an AA+. It is projected to take years to get the

rating back but that is only if the nation starts to either cut its spending or reduce its debt in other ways.

When it comes to spending, there are many categories of federal spending to consider but the big three that

encompass the federal budget include in order, Social Security ($993-billion) Medicare/Medicaid ($987-

billion) and Defense ($584-billion). Both parties and everyone in between all agree that we can never make a

serious movement on budget/spending reduction until we seriously look at how to reduce each of these three

categories. But to even mention taking any action on any of them in wholesale numbers would be political

suicide. Democrats tend to fight tooth and nail to protect Medicare/Medicaid which are primarily used for

the poor. Republicans do the same with protecting Defense spending, which is primarily being used now to

support the two wars the country is in. And NEITHER party wants to touch Social Security for fear of

angering older Americans and even younger ones who already feel that this retirement plan will not have

enough money in it by the time they retire.

Taxes

Another very important issue that will have a massive impact on the 2012 presidential election is taxes.

President Obama and Gov. Romney have completely differing views on taxes as do their respective parties.

The Republicans want to permanently extend the Bush-era tax cuts, primarily for wealthier Americans. Their

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rationale is the age old Republican notion of “trickledown economics”; if we reward those at the top of the

scale, they will create opportunity for everyone in a manner that trickles down to all segments of the

economy. President Obama and the Democrats have a completely different view and whereas they do not

mind giving tax cuts to the middle class, they are emphatically against giving tax cuts to wealthy Americans.

The president wants to raise the taxes on anyone making more than $200,000 annually. The Democrats feel

that part of the debt issue is due to the fact that we are not taking in enough money from taxes from the

people who can most afford to pay them. You might have seen the president recently trump his Buffet Plan,

which states that the mega rich should pay a higher tax rate than average Americans. You will see the back

and forth debate on taxes continue throughout the entire election cycle and the man who convinces the

American people that his tax plan makes the most sense could perhaps be the winner in November. To get a

better understanding of the tax debate, look no further than each candidate’s own personal tax situation. Last

year, Mr. Obama paid about 22% in taxes for 2011. Mr. Romney on the other hand paid about 14% tax rate.

Not only that, he is catching much grief for shielding much of his income from paying federal taxes by

placing it in tax havens such as Swiss and Cayman Island accounts, two governments known for allowing

foreigners to shelter money from taxes and for other reasons.

The bottom line is that the Republican Party has moved so far right toward conservatism that the majority of

it is absolutely dead set on not raising taxes under any circumstances. Their approach is cut spending, not to

raise taxes, even in cases where there is an obvious tax discrepancy. Obama’s plan is to end the Bush tax cuts

that expire at year’s end and work to begin revising the tax code altogether. It will be critical for both men to

woo the middle on this issue to win in November. They do not have to convince their own base, this

particular topic is about winning over the Independent and more moderate voters in the middle of the

political spectrum.

Vs.

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Other Important Issues

Immigration

Issues that will play a critical role in the election that may or may not have a financial impact to the country

are plentiful. Many of these issues are moral in nature as opposed to fiscal. This would include immigration.

This is an issue that predominantly impacts Hispanics and those that would try to keep them out of the

country if it is believed they are here illegally. Mr. Romney and Republicans would like to make the case to

the American people that the influx of illegal immigrants is a threat to national security and is a primary cause

of the drug trafficking from Latin American countries. This is why many southern states such as Alabama,

Georgia and Arizona have put in place the toughest laws ever to stem the tide of illegal immigrants. The

Arizona law signed by Republican Governor Jan Brewer is so controversial that it has reached the Supreme

Court and like the national healthcare law, a decision will be handed down sometime in June. This case will

have an impact on many states who have thought about implementing similar controversial laws. The

question is if the Arizona law is upheld as being constitutional, do the floodgates open to any state that wants

to have similar laws? In addition, what will be the reaction of Hispanics in November whether the Court

upholds or overturns the Arizona law? Hispanics have traditionally voted Democrat as the Republicans have

had an incredibly difficult time selling their brand to this highest growing segment of the U.S. population.

Women & Race

The Sandra Fluke issue is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this election being one of the most

critical ones for women in our nation’s history. If the healthcare law for example is overturned by the

Supreme Court, many fear this will have a more negative impact on women. Women are more often the

heads of households than ever before and are more susceptible to pre-existing conditions that would

otherwise be covered by the healthcare law. This is why Gov. Romney is having such a hard time connecting

to women on the issues that are most important to them, including wanting to defund the Education

Department and remove funding from Planned Parenthood. This type of policy rhetoric has caused the

governor to be down by 10 points or more to the president with women. In addition to the Hispanic vote,

this is one block of voters that Mitt Romney will have to close the gap with the president on; otherwise he

will mathematically have no chance of winning the election.

In terms of race relations in this country and their continual impact on politics, one doesn’t have to look any

further than the Trayvon Martin case in Florida. Many African-Americans believe that George Zimmerman

is guilty of murder whereas many whites feel the case is getting too much exposure and don’t understand why

the media continues to be so fascinated with it. Try telling an African-American mom with teenage boys that

justice doesn’t need to be served in this case. She will instantly understand all that is at stake. This is only a

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microcosm of the issue of race in our country. The recession has hurt ethnic minorities at a much greater clip

than it has whites, as evidenced by a plethora of economic data. The numbers typically never lie and it

doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that there is a tremendous gap between races in our nation. It is

clear that President Obama will undoubtedly win the minority vote, but with the downtrodden feeling of

many minorities, the key question remains is will this block of voters be as enthusiastic as it was in the

historical election of 2008? This will be critical for Mr. Obama’s chances of keeping his own job. He has to

find a way to convince the most down and out that he still has their back and if given another chance, he will

enact policies that improve the lives of minorities of all races.

Education

According to the Huffington Post, the three-yearly OECD Programme for International Student Assessment

(PISA) report, which compares the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds in 70 countries around the world, the

United States ranked 14th out of 34 OECD countries for reading skills, 17th for science and a below-average

25th for mathematics. These statistics prompted the following reaction from the top education official in the

Obama administration. "This is an absolute wake-up call for America," U.S. Education Secretary Arne

Duncan said in an interview with The Associated Press. "The results are extraordinarily challenging to us and

we have to deal with the brutal truth. We have to get much more serious about investing in education." The

situation is so desperate yet so lost in the shuffle of many of the other just as important issues noted earlier in

the case, that it is hard to imagine a positive outcome for our children’s futures. There is an interesting irony

when it comes to education in this country. Everyone knows that it is important that we address the

multitude of issues we face in order for our youth to grow up and be able to compete in an ever competitive

world—but yet no one seems to be able to solve the education gap. Yes there are pockets of success with

various state and private education programs, but with each passing year, our national education system

moves closer to the abyss to the point where the greatest nation on the face of the earth is on the verge of

irrelevancy with respect to worldwide education results.

Energy

The energy debate is fueled by the cost of oil which drives the cost of gasoline. Oil is measured by the barrel

and when the price of a barrel of crude oil (which directly makes gasoline) is typically over $100 a barrel then

this causes chaos at the pump. Within the last week before this case went to print, crude oil was trading at

less than $97 a barrel, as demonstrated by Figure 3 below. The price has come down $10 in the last week,

causing Americans who follow this to understand that they just saved a few dollars on their gas as a result.

There is always a fear that conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most prominent oil producing region will

continue to drive oil prices up and thus cause gasoline in the U.S. to be more than $5 a gallon. This is the

hypothetical price that many economists have felt would be too much for Americans to stomach and would

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cause such an uproar that it could potentially impact the election. The national average price of gas the week

of May 7 was $3.75 per gallon. If gas remains under $4 a gallon, energy will not be much of an issue with the

election. But if we are in a sustained period of $100/barrel and $5/gallon then both political parties will

criticize each other’s energy policies for the next six months. Like every other issue discussed thus far, the

Republicans and Democrats have drastically different views and policies on oil and energy as a whole.

Republicans want to do more drilling in America and off its shores. They also want to build a pipeline that

runs from Canada to the Gulf Coast. They also have differing views from Democrats on the argument

around “clean energy”, which involves non-coal and oil producing ways of harvesting energy. Democrats

tend to take a more environmentally friendly view on energy. And although this is a minor issue compared to

some of the others at this point in the election, it won’t take much to push American families over the edge

by having even more money come out of their pockets and into something our car-loving society takes for

granted. That would leave only the politicians to blame and that blame would primarily be placed on the guy

at the top.

War and U.S. Foreign Policy

With so many domestic issues dominating this election cycle and with the economy still struggling to recover,

many Americans tend to not pay much attention to our nation’s foreign policy. After all, it’s hard to worry

about what’s going on in China or Iran when you’re a single parent trying to balance keeping food on the

table and paying the bills. Foreign policy to many Americans seems just that—foreign. But it is important

that we all pay closer attention to how our government deals with foreign affairs. The world is too inter-

Figure 3: U.S. Oil Prices during the Period of 5/1/2012 to 5/9/2012

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connected not to. The rest of the world knows more about what goes on in America than Americans know

what is going on in the rest of the world and that behavior needs to change.

Much of the U.S. foreign policy is currently dominated by war on two fronts, in Iraq and Afghanistan. And

as noted before, Iraq has all but wined down and Afghanistan is scheduled to do the same by 2014, despite a

recently signed pact between the president and his Afghan counterpart that will keep a peacekeeping force in

that country until 2024. For the most part, Americans however are tired of war. And even though these

most recent wars were predicated by what happened on 9/11, we have still been fighting wars in the same

region of the world since Desert Storm in 1991. The cost of these wars have been mammoth both in the

death of so many Americans, local citizens and monetarily speaking. War has driven up our debt and has

changed our view with many around the world.

Other non-war aspects of U.S. foreign policy include our dealings with other countries. Lately there has been

much talk about U.S.-China relations since that country is on track to surpass us as the world’s largest

economy sometime in the next 30 years. Our relationship with China has never been more important. Also

with Europe in just as bad of an economic climate as we are, if not worse, our relationship with our partners

there has not been this important since World War II. The president’s interactions with Great Britain, France

and Germany in particular will only grow more important as Europe and the U.S. are joined at the hip in

trying to end the worldwide recession. Then there is an old Cold War enemy turned ally turned ‘questionable’

at the moment—Russia. Gov. Romney even recently went so far as to say that Russia represented the

number one threat to America, hypothesizing that the Cold War was actually not over. Finally our foreign

policy is shaped by our dealings with developing nations such as India, Brazil and Mexico in addition to

seemingly rogue nations like Syria, Iran and North Korea, three countries that George Bush once dubbed the

new ‘axis of evil’.

Foreign Politics

Since the financial crisis started in 2008, incumbent leaders around the world have had a tough time holding

onto their jobs. Most recently, French president Nicolas Sarkozy lost his bid for re-election to Socialist

candidate Francois Hollande. In 2011, Spain’s leader Jose Zapatero saw his party (Socialist) heavily defeated

by the conservative People’s Party. Also, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi resigned as the financial crisis devastated

Italy’s economy. Before that it was Greece’s George Papandreou who resigned due to eroding public

confidence. Slovenia’s Prime Minister, Borut Pahor also stepped down in 2011. Portugal’s ruling party was

routed in 2011 elections as well. Leaders in Finland and Ireland suffered the same fates. And finally Great

Britian’s Gordon Brown was one of the early victims of the financial crisis, falling to current Prime Minister

and conservative, David Cameron.

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The financial crisis is not the only thing that has caused major leadership changes, the Arab Spring uprising in

many Arab countries has led to the resignation or overthrow of many years’ long dictators. Egypt, Tunisia,

Libya and Yemen have all seen long time leaders go down. Earlier this year, former Libyan dictator

Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed by rebel forces in his country. And uprisings have occurred in no

less than 10 other Arab countries whose people seek economic freedom from oppressive regimes.

Also there are leadership changes in major economic forces such as Russia, where former president Vladimir

Putin once again became president in 2012 by capturing more than 63% of the vote in a controversial

election. And in China, the presumptive next leader of that nation, current Vice President Xi Jinping recently

made a trip to the United States to meet with President Obama and U.S. business leaders to lay the

groundwork for improved U.S.-China relations. All of these policy and leadership changes in countries

around the world represent very interesting prognostications for our own presidential election.

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Candidate: President Barack Obama, Democrat

It doesn’t seem like that long ago that the nation was on the verge of a historical political moment with the

election of its first African-American president. Many, including the case writer never thought this moment

would happen in our lifetime. And once the moment had come, even foes of the president-elect had to admit

that indeed times had changed. But then again, that was four years ago and in American politics four years

can seem like an eternity. The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 has left many, including strong supporters of

the president with doubt as to whether he can finish the job he started. One thing is for sure, the president

will not be able to run on the same platform he ran on in 2008. No longer can he use Hope and Change as a

rallying cry to fire people up. The public has become disillusioned by unemployment, home foreclosures,

rising costs, decreasing salaries, war, lack of healthcare and quality education among a number of other

calamities. It is hard to maintain hope when you haven’t worked in 18 months.

But being clear about one thing is important to keep things in perspective. The president is the captain of the

ship so to speak at the moment, but he didn’t deliver the country to the position it is in solely by his policies

of the last three years. No matter who became president in 2008, this was always going to be a tough election

cycle. People are still trying to grasp that the financial crisis we are still trying to recover from was the worst

since the 1930s. That is several generations ago and we have grown spoiled by our own riches and often

lavish lifestyles. President Obama has always tried to make the case that we were in for a long ride back to

prosperity but people don’t often want to be told what they “need” to hear. We have gotten used and quite

accustomed to accepting being told what we “want” to hear. Obama is a pragmatic type of person. He is

incredibly smart and level-headed and he’s a structured person who listens to advisors and people in general

and doesn’t believe in making snap decisions. The president has signed into law an incredible amount of

important legislation in three years in office, despite spending much of that time fighting a do-nothing

Congress, initially led by fellow Democrats his first two years but now one partially led by the Republicans

since the 2010 elections. The very first Act that he signed into law upon becoming president was the Lily

Ledbetter Act, calling for equal pay for equal work for women. This was an important amendment to the

Civil Rights Act of 1964. President Obama also led the charge to clean up the mess on Wall Street during his

first year in office. The Card Act was signed into law to help protect Americans from big financial services

companies that had gotten out of control with unscrupulous fees, charges and rules that essentially allowed

American family debt to explode over the last twenty years. He also signed the Wall Street Reform and

Consumer Protection Act (known as the Dodd-Frank Act after the two Democratic Congressmen who

authored the bill). This was put in place to protect consumers against the unscrupulous practices that caused

the mortgage fiasco that cost millions of Americans their homes.

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There was also the near takeover of and then bailout of the American auto industry that all but saved Chrysler

and General Motors. Detroit is making a comeback since Obama took office and the stance he took to help

bail them out is a primary reason for that. This may in the end, become a differentiating factor that could put

Obama over the top in November.

Despite all the above mentioned success, the president’s signature legislation was the signing of the

Affordable Care Act or better known as Healthcare reform. This law is however being threatened to be

overturned by the Supreme Court with a decision coming by the end of the summer. President Obama

accomplished something with this sweeping law that several presidents before him failed to do. Some 30

million new people would now be covered that were not previously. One would think that was a good thing

but this law has become the biggest lightening rod dividing Americans in both parties.

The president also made historical policy changes impacting the gay and lesbian community. He got rid of

the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy of the military that now allows gay service members to openly express their

beliefs without fear of being discharged. And just within the last week before this case went to print, the

president went on public record expressing his belief that gay Americans should have the right to be married.

This game-changing announcement came a day after the state of North Carolina voted to ban gay marriage

and civil unions. This was despite support from former President Clinton and an announcement of support

from Vice President Joe Biden. The historical consideration is that no sitting president had ever taken an

absolute stand in support of gay rights. The president’s announcement of his support is being compared to

President Lyndon Johnson’s announcement of his support for Civil Rights and would eventually lead to his

signing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

President Obama’s resume cannot solely be restricted to discussion of his domestic policy. Perhaps the

greatest accomplishment in many people’s eyes was the killing of public enemy number one, Osama bin

Laden under the president’s direction in May of 2011. Obama was able to do what neither Clinton nor Bush

before him could do and that was bringing to justice a mass murderer of thousands of innocent Americans.

Yet a year after that victory against terrorism, the president faces one of the most contentious re-elections in

presidential history. The president still remains very popular around the world and has brought respectability

back to the American brand with friends and foes alike around the world. But the question remains will all of

these factors combine to be enough for the American people to give him a chance to complete a second term

to seal his legacy. With that being said, let’s take a closer look at pros and cons of the Obama candidacy.

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Pros

Signed into law Healthcare Reform bringing health coverage to 30+ million additional Americans

Believed to have saved the American auto industry with the auto bailout

Believed to have reigned in Wall Street and plugged the whole in the financial bucket

Killed Osama bin Laden

Credited for the downfall and eventual killing of Libya’s dictator Muammar Gaddafi

Signed the Ledbetter Act calling for equal pay for equal work for women

Signed the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act to protect Americans from greedy

financial companies

Enacted policies to stem the tide of home foreclosures on millions of Americans

Enacted policies to allow Americans to re-finance their homes at reasonable rates

Signed into law reform making it easier for students to pay back student loans

Started the Race to the Top program providing grants for states trying to enact education reform

Adopted energy policies to end America’s dependence on foreign oil

Ended Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

Appointed two new justices to the Supreme Court, both women, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan

Ended the Iraq War and on schedule to end the war in Afghanistan

Proposes maintaining low taxes for Americans who earn less than $250,000 and raising them on

millionaires and billionaires, along with revising the tax code

Thought to be one of the smartest and most pragmatic, well thought out presidents in U.S. history

Likeability: the president known by even his enemies to be a very likeable person

Great working relationship with many of the most prominent world leaders

Family man, married to wife Michelle with two children, Sasha and Malia

Cons

The economy, the economy, the economy!!!

The monthly jobs report, growth is not large enough or steady enough to kick start the economy

8.1% national unemployment, no president in the last 50 years has ever won re-election with

unemployment greater than 7.2%

Having trouble working with Republicans in Congress, causing his agenda to not fully be met

National healthcare reform law that is his key legislative success is highly unpopular by many

Americans and may be overturned by the Supreme Court

Squeezed in by Liberals on the left who feel his policies have not been progressive enough and by

Conservatives on the right who feel his policies have been Socialist in nature

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Candidate: Governor Mitt Romney, Republican

This isn’t the first go around for Mitt Romney running for the White House. His first attempt in 2008 to

represent the Republican Party fell short when he lost the nod to Senator John McCain. But now the former

governor of Massachusetts is back at it again, this time only a few delegates away from claiming the

nomination of his party to go against President Obama in the November election. Mitt Romney served only

one term as the governor of Massachusetts before deciding to not seek re-election to focus on a bid for the

White House in 2008. Prior to being governor, he served as the President of the Organizing Committee for

the 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City, UT. He is widely credited with saving that Olympics from

financial ruin as planning was heavily in debt and short of revenue until Romney came on board. Those

Olympic Games ended up making $100 million in profit, notwithstanding security costs in the wake of the

September 11 terrorist attacks.

Before the Olympics, Romney made a run to unseat longtime Massachusetts Democratic Senator Ted

Kennedy in 1994 and at that time actually considered himself an Independent before switching to the

Republican Party. Kennedy went on to soundly defeat him 58% to 41% that year.

Much of Gov. Romney’s business success came as a result of his time spent at Bain & Company and a

spinoff of it, Bain Capital. Romney began a consulting career at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) but left to

join Bain founder Bill Bain to do business consulting for major corporations like Monsanto Company. He

was so successful with his turnaround strategies that Bill Bain asked him to lead the development of a spin-

off company that would focus on private equity and venture capital. These are companies that invest in

startup and other companies and/or provide consulting to these companies to deliver turnaround results.

Romney worked at Bain Capital from 1984 to 1999, helping to fund or turnaround many well known

companies. He invested in what was then a startup company named Staples. He went on to even serve on

Staples board of directors. Now Staples is a household name and a very successful company in its own right.

While at Bain Capital, Romney also went on to provide investments to major companies such as Brookstone,

Sports Authority and Domino’s Pizza. Romney was very well known for making deals and bringing big

bucks to Bain all while making nice profits for his clients as well. He eventually returned to the parent

company Bain & Company which was going through its own financial turmoil and led a turnaround effort

there before leading to head up the Salt Lake City Olympics.

Mitt Romney’s success in business has made him a very rich man and this has often dogged him on the

campaign trail as he tries to identify with average Americans who have lost everything during the financial

crisis. It’s very hard to see the point of view of a laid off blue collar worker from a defunct auto plant when

you have a net worth of upwards to a quarter of a billion dollars. That being said, if elected, Mr. Romney

would be one of the richest presidents in history of our nation. His wealth and his being out of touch has

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been the topic of much discussion even from members of his own party. On many occasions on the

campaign trail, he has come across as arrogant and out of touch like when he said his wife drives two

Cadillacs. He also drew criticism for saying how he is friends with many billionaire sports franchise owners.

It is simply not good policy in an election year to talk above a citizenry that is struggling to make ends meet

themselves. Gov. Romney’s entire campaign itself is a quagmire for people on both sides of the aisle to try to

figure out. In some circles the thought is that given the stagnant recovery of the economy that he is the

perfect person to challenge the president, given his turnaround expertise. But in other circles, especially

within the Republican Party itself he is thought of as being too moderate and not having conservative enough

credentials to lead the party and the nation. Democrats and the media like to portray him as a “flip-flopper”,

one who changes their mind with the wind. His past has given them too much evidence to support this

notion. He was Independent and then switched to the Republican Party. He was ‘for’ abortion and now he

is ‘against’ it. One of the toughest challenges facing him now is he was initially against the bailout for Detroit

and the American auto industry. He even penned an Op Ed piece for the Washington Post saying that the

government should simply let Detroit go bankrupt. Well now that the auto industry has down a complete

turnaround the last three years and finally making profits again, Romney is once again walking a tightrope

making claims that he could have made this happen too. This about face is so disturbing to many that he

more than likely will not win his home state of Michigan in the general election; a state that his father was

once governor of.

Another important issue the Romney campaign was conquer is igniting the base of the Republican party,

which has moved so far to the right on the political spectrum that it is hard to imagine even a moderate-esque

Republican like Ronald Reagan being successful today in that party. Romney’s job is two-fold actually in that

he has to excite his base by swinging farther right than he would like to, to win them over. Then he has to

swing back to the center to capture the growing Independent vote. A brutal Republican primary season

forced him to swing so far right that it has provided much material for President Obama and the Democrats

to not paint him as a flip-flopper but also as too conservative to lead the nation. Romney’s problems six

months from election day don’t just end with trying to convince his own base that he is their man, he has an

even more daunting task to win over women and Hispanics. Obama has a 10 to 15 point lead in many polls

with women and the best Romney has been able to do at this point is invoke his wife Ann as his ‘expert’ on

issues important to women. It is still too early to determine if that is a play that will woo women toward his

candidacy. With Hispanics, his strategy and that of the Republican brand as a whole is even worse. Their

stand on immigration and topics important to Hispanics in America have left them out in the cold with trying

to convince the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population to support their policies. Not only that, many

of this years’ swing states have high and growing Hispanic populations, including Florida, Colorado, New

Mexico and Arizona. Now let’s take a look at the pros and cons of the Romney candidacy.

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Pros

Known to be a turnaround expert from his time spent at Bain & Company, Bain Capital and the Salt

Lake City Winter Olympics Committee

Highly structured and data driven person who is used to analyzing problems

Pro-business, highly respected by business community from time in consulting and private equity

Proposes cutting the corporate tax rate to 25% to spur growth and business development

More of a moderate Republican who might be able to get something accomplished in a heavily

partisan Washington environment

Has yet to pick a running mate as he has not officially been named the nominee, this pick like

McCain’s in 2008 (for the negative) could be a game changer

Eliminated a $1.5 billion dollar budget deficit while governor of Massachusetts

Is taking advantage of the anti-Obama sentiment that many people have and is using it to his full

advantage

Family man, married to wife Ann with five boys Taggart, Matthew, Joshua, Benjamin and Craig

Known to be a very nice guy and very personable man

Cons

Known to be a flip-flopper in addition to telling people what they want to hear or saying

things that suit him for the occasion

Is having trouble selling his message to his conservative base within the Republican party

Lot of dirty laundry aired on him due to a hard fought Republican nomination process and he still

only received reluctant support or endorsements from his much more conservative opponents

Too rich for the American people to stomach at a time when people are struggling to get by

Only paid 14% tax rate on his 2010 income, filed for an extension in filing his 2011 tax returns, many

believe he is attempting to wait until after the election to file

Widely criticized for having much of his wealth being shielded from U.S. taxes by being placed in

accounts overseas in Switzerland and the Caymans

Thought of as out of touch with the average American, owns at least 3 homes and multiple cars

Women do not like him very much at all and he struggles to identify with their issues. His talk of

ending Planned Parenthood funding doesn’t help matters

Building a rapport with Hispanics who are expected to be a critical block in this election

Plans to significantly cut spending of many popular social programs

Hard to separate himself from Obama on healthcare as he passed similar legislation while governor

of Massachusetts

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How the Electoral College Works

Once again the media and the pundits from both sides of the political spectrum will go through the slow and

painful process of explaining to the American people just exactly how the president is elected. Yes we as

citizens do go out and make our vote count, but just because one wins the most votes, called the popular

vote, doesn’t necessarily mean that person will become president. Ask Al Gore, circa 2000. Gore had the

most votes nationally, 51 million to 50.5 million for George W. Bush. That is 500,000+ more votes than

Bush and yet he lost the election due to losing what is called the Electoral College. This ‘college’ is not an

actual college nor does it have anything to do with a university. The ‘electors’ are people who are designated

within each state to elect the president and vice president. They are bound by law to vote for the candidate

that wins the popular vote in their state in a “winner take all” formula. The Electoral College representatives

get together within their respective states to make this vote official in December, well after the presidential

election has taken place. But again, it’s not like they can change their mind or the outcome of the general

election held weeks prior. They are bound by the Constitution to vote a certain way. If a candidate wins a

state’s popular vote he or she will get ALL electoral votes for that state. There are however two states that

have an exception to this rule, Nebraska and Maine. These two states do not employ the winner take all

approach but instead use a “Congressional District” method. These two states still have their respective

number of total electoral votes, ME (4) and NE (5). But it is conceivable that these states votes can be split

as was the case in Nebraska in 2008 when McCain won the state receiving 4 electoral votes, but Obama won

the district surrounding Omaha and picked up 1 electoral vote.

To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes. For the 50 states plus Washington,

DC, there are a total of 538 electoral votes. This size of the Electoral College is equal to the size of

representatives in Congress (435 for the House of Representatives and 100 for the Senate) plus 3 additional

votes for the District of Columbia. Each state’s electoral votes are equal to its number of House

representatives plus Senators. Since Washington, D.C. is not a state, it is assigned 3 electoral votes. The

reason D.C. has only three is that it cannot have more than the least populous state, which at present is

Wyoming. Each state automatically has two U.S. Senators, and Wyoming’s population is so small that it only

has one House of Representatives member, for a total of 3 Congressmen.

Election Day is always the first Tuesday in November every four years. The even number of eligible electoral

votes (538) could potentially set up a tie of 269-269. Under this scenario, the presidency would be decided by

a vote in the newly-elected United States House of Representatives, which is sworn in January 1st after the

election. This has only happened twice in history, in 1801 and 1825. Also in case of a tie, the newly elected

United States Senate would be tasked with choosing the vice president. This has only happened once, in

1837.

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There has been much discussion about getting rid of the electoral college entirely. This was at a fever pitch in

2000 after it took the United States Supreme Court to decide to stop counting disputed ballots in Florida that

had they continued doing so, the course of history might very well have changed. It is hard for Americans to

understand how the process works and when all of the idiosyncrasies are added in such as the tie break

scenarios or the fact that two states do it entirely differently, and the fact that this only happens every four

years to begin with—it’s no wonder we always have to have some television pundit explain it to us.

Another highly charged issue with the Electoral College is rooted in the U.S. Census. We count the number

of people living in each state every ten years in years ending in zero. As a result of the 2010 census, the

country displayed a major population shift away from heavily populated states in the Northeast and Midwest

for the Southeast and Southwest. This caused those northern states to lose representatives while the southern

states gained representatives. The two figures below show how the electoral votes for the 2012 election have

changed as a result of the 2010 census. Figure 4 shows the electoral college map for 2012, 2016 and 2020.

This will be revised again for the 2024 election based on the 2020 census. Figure 5 shows what the map

looked like in 2008. Notice how IA, MO, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MA and LA all lost votes whereas WA, NV,

UT, AZ, TX, SC, GA and FL all gained votes. This will have an impact on this and future elections.

Figure 4: 2012 Electoral College Map

Figure 5: 2008 Electoral College Map

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Presidential Election History

There have been some rather exciting presidential elections in U.S. history, none more so than those here in

the early part of the 21st century. We have seen the first black president elected. There has been a woman on

the ticket of one of the two major political parties. We have had the Supreme Court get involved to

essentially decide a presidential election. In that same election we have seen the person who won the most

total votes in the country—lose the election. We have seen a decorated Vietnam War veteran’s service

literally called into question by a “swift boat” campaign that led to his defeat. And we have seen one of the

more intellectually challenged presidents in history win a second term. And that’s all since 2000. In this

election, President Obama is trying to become only the second Democrat to win re-election in 68 years.

Other than President Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to win re-election was FDR who won four elections.

Table 2 below shows the results of every presidential election since 1924. It shows the candidates and

political party, number of electoral votes received and popular vote received.

Table 2: Chart of Election Results 1924-2008 Electoral Popular

Year Presidential Candidates Political Party Votes Votes Vice Presidential Candidates

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Epilogue

There are so many questions to answer in this election. It is still hard to figure out which way it will turn.

Does the economy turnaround to give the president an assist? Does Mitt Romney finally break through with

women and Hispanics? Will the upcoming decisions by the Supreme Court on immigration and healthcare

cases fire up one or both of the bases of each party? Who will Gov. Romney choose as his running mate and

will that person be from a swing state? Also, what will be the impact of Super PACs (Political Action

Committees)? This will be the first election where they even exist after yet another Supreme Court decision

that allowed anyone to give any amount of money to support a political candidate. These PACs are special

interests who are not ‘technically’ affiliated with the candidate but who quite obviously donate any amount

they choose to support that candidate’s campaign. Gov. Romney has raised millions upon millions from the

anti-Obama Super PACs supporting him. This money typically comes from millionaires or billionaires who

are doing everything in their power and supposedly within the law to influence the American public. It will

be important for each candidate to get their message out to the American public. It will be very interesting to

see what happens with each party’s national convention. The Republicans hold their convention in August in

Tampa, Florida. Two weeks later, the Democrats hold their convention in Charlotte, NC. Finally, the impact

of the swing states will be HUGE. It is very well known that this election will be decided by the results of 10

or so states? See Figure 6 for a view of the electoral map as of May according to RealClearPolitics.com

Swing states are shown in gray. This election “will” be won by the outcome of these states whether anyone

wants to believe it or not, any political pundit will say this is the state of American politics in 2012.

. Figure 6: Electoral Map as of May, 2012

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Case Questions

The following are a few questions your team needs to take into consideration when analyzing the case.

During your presentation you will be judged on how well you grasp the material presented plus how creative

you are in thinking outside the box without rehashing the details of the case. You have to present your own

ideas in a thought-provoking manner. You don’t have to present answers to every single question, but you

want to choose which questions help your team to come to the conclusion that allows you to present your

interpretation of the case in the best way possible. Remember there is NO right or wrong answer unless you

don’t try. Questions that your team needs to consider in your analysis include the following:

1. Present a case for what you think should be or will be President Obama’s strategy for winning the

election. As part of your analysis, demonstrate what President Obama’s final electoral map totals will

be.

2. Present a case for what you think should be or will be Governor Mitt Romney’s strategy for winning

the election. As part of your analysis, demonstrate what Governor Romney’s final electoral map

totals will be.

3. Present a case that discusses the following two critically important issues facing both candidates in

this election:

a. The U.S. economy and jobs or lack of jobs for the millions of unemployed

b. The world economy, in particular the troubles in the EU

4. Discuss the election from a financial aspect from both campaigns, consider the following:

a. Money raised by the candidates’ campaigns

b. Money raised by their respective political parties

c. The impact of Super PACs on the 2012 election

5. What role will technology and social media play in the 2012 election?

6. In your team’s opinion, what will the world, and the U.S. in particular look like on January 20, 2013?

This is Inauguration Day whether there is a re-elected person or a newly elected person.

7. What role will young people like yourself play in this election, especially given there are so many of

them unemployed and/or having so much trouble paying for the high cost of college?

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Case Competition Instructions

1. Take a few minutes to read over the case individually then begin discussing as a team. Think

“outside the box” as presidential elections are never what they seem to appear on the surface. This is

your chance as young people to fully and completely understand how the political process works in

our country and the impact you can have on that process. And again, there is truly no right or wrong

answer—it’s how your team interprets the case.

2. Be sure to consider the case questions at the end of the case to support your team’s theories on how

this election will turn out.

3. This part is very important. Your team can choose which of the case questions to answer and you do

not have to answer ALL of them, nor are you expected to but you absolutely “must” incorporate

Questions 4 and 7 in your final presentation or PowerPoint submission or in both. Beyond that, you

can choose to take any position on either of those questions or any of the other ones.

4. Choose a format to present your case. Your team can choose any format including video, debate,

skit, surveys, on-stage props, sitcom, serious analysis, audience discussion, etc. Whatever you feel is

appropriate to get your team’s point across as long as you adhere to the case competition protocols.

5. Be sure to cite your sources of research no matter what format your team chooses to present in.

This will be very important in your score.

6. Also, you need to have a page on screen or verbal announcement or something introducing your

team and the members of the team who are presenting to the audience. Also, prepare and submit a

PowerPoint presentation the day of the competition. This can be any number of pages your team

chooses.

7. Each of the eight teams will present their case in a maximum of 15 minutes each. You can present in

less than 15 minutes with no penalty but if you go over 15 minutes you will be penalized 5 points for

each minute over.

8. Prizes will be awarded to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams to be announced during the graduation

ceremony on June 22nd. However, each team will receive feedback on their performance.