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2013Spring Weather
OutlookMARAC Region V Meeting
April 24, 2013Cindy Bean
Meteorologist
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA
weather.gov/hanford
Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013
• Seasonal Rainfall– Fresno and Bakersfield – 51% of normal– Merced – 65% of normal
• Since Jan 1– Merced and Fresno - near 32% of normal– Bakersfield – 57% of normal
• April– Merced – 57% of normal– Fresno and Bakersfield – 11% of normal
Where do we stand?
Since Jan 1
Near to slightly above Normal
Well Below Normal
Since April 1
Above Normal
Well Below Normal
Current 5-Station Index
CURRENT YEAR
Day of The Year
PrecipitationAmount
Current Reservoir Levels
Jan 21 2013
Seasonal Water Supply Volume Forecast
Winter Predictionsfor 2013
…What about El Nino?
“ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.”
--NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Sea Surface TemperaturesJanuary 2013
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Slightly Below Normal
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Sea Surface Temperatures - April
Slightly negative temperature anomalies have gradually warmed to near normal along the Equator – clearly an ENSO neutral state
April 26-May 2Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability
2013 Spring Predictions
Favors Dry
Strongly Favors Warmer than normal
2013 Spring Predictions
Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability May 2013
Favors Warmer than normal
Equal Chances
May through JulyPrecipitation Probability Temperature Probability
2013 Spring/Summer Predictions
Normal Normal
Potential Impacts• Reservoirs/Water Supply
• Below normal snowpack • Lower than normal Spring Runoff• Less water for agriculture
• Drought• Drought will persist or intensify• Last year was dry in many parts of the region. The
current water year is below normal over much of the area. The threat of long-term drought impacts is real.
Potential Impacts
• Fire Weather• Fuels curing earlier than normal • Fire season starting 4 weeks earlier than normal• The possibility of far drier than average fuels
coupled with above normal temperatures may result in above normal large fire potential by mid-June into July.
• Current Fuels are approaching critical. 10 hour Live FM at 78%. 1000 hr with large death rate.
Climate Prediction Center (outlooks updated 3rd Thursday of every month)cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Hanford Web Page weather.gov/hanford
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Don Florence – [email protected] County OES – 209-742-1306
For More Information…
