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CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist. 36-km domain Strong ridge of high pressure aloft – at 500 mb. 21-hr forecast, valid last Tuesday night. 36-km domain 700 mb (~10K ft) humidity and wind 36-hr forecast, valid last - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CANSAC Products tour
From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist
36-km domain
Strong ridgeof high pressurealoft – at 500 mb.
21-hr forecast,valid last
Tuesday night
36-km domain
700 mb (~10K ft) humidityand wind
36-hr forecast,valid last
Wednesday afternoon
36-km domain
850 mb (~5000 ft level) Temps –colorsPressure –lines and Wind- barbs
60-hr forecast,valid last Thursday afternoon
12-km domain
700 mb (~10,000 ft level) Temps – colorsPressure – lines
and Wind- barbs
36-hr forecast,valid two
afternoons ago
12-km domain
700 mb (~10,000 ft level)
RH – colorsVert Vel. – lines & Wind- barbs
18-hr forecast,valid this past Mon. evening
Blue in ID/east OR is lift ahead
of an upper-level trough
Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness (1000-500mb). We use it to gaugeoverall airmass temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning is on left, and
a much colder airmass (Wed. morning) following recent weather change is on the right.
12-km domain
Surface level
Temps – colorsPressure – lines
Wind- barbs
15-hr forecast,valid back on
Monday, when CA was still in warm airmass
12-km domain
This is a map of the high-level Haines
Index. It is a 48-hour forecast valid
yesterday morning.
This Index is meant todepict the potential for
large fire growth, given an existing wild-
fire. But it doesn’ttake wind into
account. It’s best use is to predict plume-dominated vs wind-driven fire behavior.
12-km domain
Pressure – blue linesWind speed – colors
Important to remem-ber on these upper airmaps: Wind is shown
in meters/sec. Youcan approximate mph
speeds by doubling thevalue shown here.
In other words, the southern UT windsare over 50 mph!
54-hr fcst, validyesterday morning.
12-km domain
Same idea as previousframe, except at a
higher level – this time500 mb, about 18000’.
Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed
80 mph!
48 hour forecast valid 4am yesterday
morning
12-km domain
Map of 24-hr total predicted
precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday to 4pm Wed.
Scale is in inches. Each
level up is double the amount of
predicted rain.
Some other useful informationfound on the main Products
matrix page
The first highlighted here is the“MM5 Notices and Problems Log”
Other useful information,continued….
This is where you click to lookat Air Quality Products. It is a
relatively new section of the page.
Evan Shipp will cover some ofthese shortly
Air Quality Products
Other useful information, continued ….
This is where you click to lookat NFDRS Products. This page Requires a login and password.
Experimental NFDRS 1-day Forecasts National Fire Danger Rating System
When you click onone of these imagesyou get a full screen
of that image.For example, EnergyRelease Component
(ERC) here
Energy Release Component Forecast Initialization: 20060214 00Z -- Valid for 20060214
Other useful information, continued ….
This is where you click to findVerification products forour CANSAC MM5 model.
300 mb Heights, Winds – Analysis etc. 300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- AnalysisAnalysis 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- ModelModel 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis etc. 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds – Model850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model
In the verification example above, the MM5 model’s 48-hour forecast of 500mb temperatures, pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the right. The forecast was made at 12z (4am PST) on Feb. 10th, so it predicts for the time of 12z on Feb. 12th. What actually happened at 12z on Feb. 12th (i.e. the verification) is shown on the left.
Verification from 12-km domain. One can also look at 36-km and 4-km domains
Other useful information, continued ….
This is where you can provide feedback to the CEFA/DRI folks
who run the MM5 model
This frame shows most of the products from the 4-km domain, i.e, themodel domain with the best resolution
Surface 10m Wind Speed (NW Quadrant) 12-Hr fcst valid Tues. 4pm PST on 2/14
Surface 10m Wind Speed (SE Quadrant) 33-Hr fcst valid 1pm this afternoon (2/16)
4-km domain
Predicted surfacetemperatures
in the current cold airmass.
In CANSAC graphics, surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper maps are in
in ºC.
This is a 57-hour projection, valid
1300 PST Friday.
4-km domain
Predicted surfaceRelative Humidity
This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300
PST today.
In the MM5’s 4-km Domain section,You can click on ‘Soundings’. Thiswill bring you to the map on the left. Placing your cursor over a Sounding point will bring a smallpop-up with the Site name.
When you click you will see the first (zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour intervals out through 60 hours.
Sounding at Sonora CA
valid 4am PST2/8/06