2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Derrell S. PeelBreedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing SpecialistOklahoma State University

CURRENT SITUATION

http://www.oilpainting-frame.com/china/oil-painting-reproduction-Charles%20M%20Russell--Camp%20cook-s%20Troubles.html

Thursday February 6, 2014

$/cwt.• Boxed Beef

– Choice $213.51– Select $212.31

• Fed Cattle (5-Mkt) $140.80• 7/800 Steers (Okla Ave.) $165.55• 4/500 Steers (Okla Ave.) $211.50

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

C-P-6202/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS

WHOLESALE BEEF PRICEChoice, Monthly

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ Per Cwt

Choice

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

SLAUGHTER STEER PRICESSouthern Plains, Weekly

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014


Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

C-P-49A02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICESWeekly

8090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ Per Cwt.

Fed

725 lb.Steers

475 lb.Steers

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

SLAUGHTER COW PRICESSouthern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly

50

60

70

80

90

100

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUECutter Cow, Weekly

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS

Boner Cow PriceAnnual, Oklahoma City

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2014 -2016 forecast,Analysis by Derrell Peel

Replacement HeifersFebruary, 2014

Location Weight Price Per Head

MT 558 $192.25 $1073SD 578 $185.50 $1072CO 601 $182.16 $1095NE 618 $219.26 $1355SD 623 $186.50 $1162NE 639 $200.00 $1279NE 677 $231.34 $1566IA 714 $179.00 $1278KS 844 $181.00 $1528OK 900 $157.25 $1415

Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price

56789

101112131415

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

450-500lb.

550-600lb.

650-700lb.

750-800


56789

101112131415


450-500lb.

500-550lb.

550-600lb.

600-650lb.


5

6

7

8

9

10

11


600-650 lb.

650-700 lb.

700-750 lb.

750-800 lb.

Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, First Quarter

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.

January

February

March

Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Second Quarter

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.

April

May

June

Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Third Quarter

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.

July

August

September

Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Fourth Quarter

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.

October

November

December

CATTLE INVENTORIES

U.S. Cattle Inventory2013 2014 % Change

1000 Head 1000 Head

All Cattle and Calves 89300 87730 -1.8

Beef Cows 29297 29042 -0.9

Dairy Cows 9218 9209 -0.01

Beef Replacements 5381 5471 +1.7

Dairy Replacements 4551 4539 -0.25

Feeder Supply 25434 24739 -2.7

Cattle on Feed 13364 12695 -5.0

2012 2013

Calf Crop 34279 33930 -1.0

JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORYU.S., Annual

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Mil. Head

C-N-0101/31/14

-1.8 Percent2014 = 87.7 Million Head

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS

Oklahoma Cattle Inventory2013 2014 % Change

1000 Head 1000 Head

All Cattle and Calves 4200 4300 +2.4

Beef Cows 1754 1805 +2.9

Dairy Cows 46 45 -2.2

Beef Replacements 280 325 +16.1

Dairy Replacements 20 20 0.0

Feeder Supply 1635 1715 +4.9

Cattle on Feed 345 265 -23.2

2012 2013

Calf Crop 1670 1670 0.0

Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles: Beef Cow Inventory, January 1

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 201229000

31000

33000

35000

37000

39000

41000

43000

45000

47000

OKLA US

JANUARY 1 CATTLE ON FEED

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Mil. Head

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel

JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.

2426283032343638404244464850

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Mil. Head

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel

Cattle on Feed as % of Estimated Feeder Supplies

January 1, 1965-2014

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

55.00%

60.00%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CATTLE ON FEEDOklahoma, Monthly

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400


1000 Head

Avg.2007/11

2012

2013

2014


Share of Cattle on FeedTexas and Oklahoma, 12 Month Moving Ave.

3567435977

3628136586

3689237196

3750037803

3810838412

3871839022

3932639630

3993440238

4054440848

4115341456

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

29.0%

30.0%

31.0%

Share of Cattle on FeedIowa and Nebraska, 12 Month Moving Ave.

3567435977

3628136586

3689237196

3750037803

3810838412

3871839022

3932639630

3993440238

4054440848

4115341456

20.0%

22.0%

24.0%

26.0%

28.0%

30.0%

January 1, 2014

1000 HeadAll Cattle and Calves Cattle on Feed

• 1 TX 10,900• 2 NE 6,150• 3 KS 5,800• 4 CA 5,250• 5 OK 4,300• 6 MO 3,800• 8 IA 3,700• 9 SD 3,650• 10 WI 3,350

• 1/ 2 TX/NE

2,450• 3 KS 2,150• 4 IA 1,230• 5 CO 990• 6 CA 510• 7 SD 310• 8 MN 300• 9 AZ 274• 10 OK 265

January 1, 2014

1000 Head Beef Cows Beef Heifers

• 1 TX 3,910• 2 MO 1,820• 3 OK 1,805• 4 NE 1,797• 5 SD 1,635• 6 MT 1,476• 7 KS 1,414• 8 KY 1,012• 9 ND 943• 10 IA 855

• 1 TX 640• 2 MT 430• 3 NE 387• 4 SD 330• 5 OK 325• 6 MO 305• 7 MO 270• 8 KS 240• 9 WY 175• 10 ND 170

January 1, 2014Feeder Supply Stocker Ratio

• 1 TX 2,960• 2 OK 1,715• 3 KS 1,690• 4 CA 1,430• 5 MO 1,380• 6 NE 1,345• 7 SD 1,135• 8 IA 1,050• 9 WI 820• 10 MN 775

• 0.769• 1.027• 1.320• 0.711• 0.798• 0.801• 0.672• 1.029• 0.603• 0.994

Stocker Ratio = Feeder Supply / Calf Crop

U.S. Avg = 0.729

Regional Share of Feeder SuppliesOutside of Feedlots, January 1

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Northwest

Southwest

N.Roc

kies

S.Roc

kies

N.Plains

S.Plains

G.Lakes

Midwest Gulf

South

Appala

chian

E.Seaboa

rd

Northea

st

10 yr ave. 2014

Southern Plains Feeder Share,January 1

22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%26.0%27.0%28.0%29.0%30.0%31.0%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Calves, Steers and Other Heifers Grazing Small Grains Pasture

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Million Head

Oklahoma Stocker Ratio, January 1

0.900.951.001.051.101.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60

-105

-65 -53

-48

-40

-31

-30

-29

-25

-20

-16-15

-12

-11

-10

-10-9

-9

-8-5

-4

-4

-3

MD -3

-3

CT -2

DE -1

-1

NJ -1

-1

MA -1NH -1

0

RI 0

0

VT 0

0

1

1

3

310

15

15

20

21

3151

6386

-110 to -11-11 to -1-1 to 33 to 87

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014

(1000 Head)


U.S. Total: -25502/03/14

-550

-119 -100

-79

-58-45

-44

-38

-32

-24

-22

-20

-20

-15-10

-10

-10

-10

-8

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

MD -2

-1

MA -1NH -1

0

RI 0

DE 1

1

1

NJ 1CT 2

2

VT 24

4

4

5

10

2229

30

33

41

50 60

78

-550 to -15-15 to -1-1 to 44 to 79


(1000 Head)


U.S. Total: -86202/04/13

-660

-288-53

-51

-40

-28

-21

-20

-19

-18

-18

-16

-11

-9

-9

-9

-8-5

-3

-3

-2

NJ -1-1

-1

RI 0

DE 0

0

0VT 0

0

0

CT 1

MD 1

NH 1MA 2

3

45

5

10

1010

10

14

20

20

22

23

55112

-660 to -9-9 to 00 to 1010 to 113


(1000 Head)


U.S. Total: -96701/27/12

CALF CROPU.S., Annual

30

35

40

45

50

55

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Mil. Head

C-N-18A02/04/13Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-NASS

-1 Percent2013 = 33.9 Million Head

JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.

20

25

30

35

40

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Mil. Head

C-N-3001/31/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS

January 1, U.S.

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Mil. Head

C-N-3801/31/14

+1.7 %


HEIFERS ON FEEDQuarterly

3500

3700

3900

4100

4300

4500

4700

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

1000 Head

Avg.2006/10

2011

2012

2013

2014

M-S-0108/28/13Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTSJANUARY 1

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.8

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.8

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Mill

ion

Head

Replacement Heifers Entering the Herd

40.0%42.5%45.0%47.5%50.0%52.5%55.0%57.5%60.0%62.5%65.0%67.5%70.0%

% EnteringProjectedAverage

BEEF REPLACEMENT HEIFERS ENTERING HERD

2.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Mil. Head

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS and Calculation by Derrell Peel

Cow Slaughter, Annual

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Million Head

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC and Derrell Peel

HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLINGas % of January 1 Cow Herd

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Heifer %

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

Culling %

Heifers Proj Cow Culling Proj

Analysis by Derrell PeelData Source: USDA-NASS

Average:Heifer % = 17.1Culling % = 9.7

JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual

28

30

32

34

36

38

40Mil. Head

C-N-0201/29/12Analysis by Derrell Peel


FEED AND FORAGESITUATION

U S ALL HAY STOCKSDecember 1

70

80

90

100

110

120

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mil. Tons

G-NP-2208/30/13Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

NH -57%

-45%

-33%-17%

MA -15%

-13%

-9%-8%

NJ -8%

MD -6%

-6%

-4%

CT -4%

-3%

-2%

0%0%

0%

RI 0%

0%

0%

VT 3%

5%

7%

9%

9%10%

11%12%

14%

15%

16%

18%

24%

24%

25%

25%

25%

26%

28%

34%

34%

39%

49%

50%

60%

87%

DE 88%

-100% to -25%-25% to 0%0% to 25%25% to 100%

PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS(2013-2012)


1/21/2014

U.S. Total: 17%

OKLAHOMA ALL HAY STOCKSDecember 1

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1000 Tons

Other Hay ProductionTons Per Beef Cow

19601963

19661969

19721975

19781981

19841987

19901993

19961999

20022005

20082011

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75

Oklahoma

SOUTHERN PLAINS CORN PRICESWeekly

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00$ Per Bu.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

G-P-0401/30/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOYBEAN MEAL (48%) PRICES

Weekly

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

$ Per Ton

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

G-P-0701/23/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


CATTLE SLAUGHTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION

CATTLE ON FEEDUS Total, Monthly

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0


Mil. Head

Avg.2008/12

2013

2014

C-N-1001/24/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERSFeeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly

-325

-275

-225

-175

-125

-75

-25

25

75

125

175

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$ Per Head


C-P-2201/07/14

Latest Data: December 2013

CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ Per Cwt

SteerPrice

Breakeven

ProjectedBreakeven


C-P-2101/07/14

Latest Data: December 2013

Cattle Slaughter, Annual

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million Head

M-S-03A01/29/13Livestock Marketing Information Center


BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY

Inventory on January 1, U.S.

88

93

98

103

108

113

118

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Mil. Head

22

23

24

25

26

27

28Bil. Pounds

Commercial Beef Production

Total Cattle Inventory



2014 Meat Production and Consumption

Production ConsumptionPer Capita

ConsumptionChange

2013 2014 2013-2014 2014 2013-2104Million lbs. Million lbs. % Retail Lbs. %

Beef 25694 23971 -6.7 53.2 -5.7Pork 23167 23559 +1.7 46.5 -0.2Broilers 37412 38687 +3.4 83.8 +2.6

BEEF DEMAND

BEEF GRADED CHOICEAs a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly

57

59

61

63

65

67

69Percent

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICESCarcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly

0

5

10

15

20

25

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



RETAIL BEEF PRICEMonthly

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ Per Cwt

All Fresh

Choice


C-P-2110/03/13

COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly

5.3

5.7

6.1

6.5

6.9


Bil. Pounds

Avg.2008/12

2013

2014

2015



WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICESBoneless, Light, Weekly

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

M-P-2102/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICESBoneless 0x1, Weekly

350400450500550600650700750800850$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014


WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICESMusl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICESBoneless 2 Piece, Weekly

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014


WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES18-33 Pounds, Weekly

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly

130140150160170180190200210220230$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 50% Lean, Weekly

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONQuarterly

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.8

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.8

7.0


Bil. Pounds

Avg.2008/12

2013

2014

2015



RETAIL PORK PRICEMonthly

285

305

325

345

365

385

405

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Cents Per Pound

Avg.2007-11

2012

2013


Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS

WHOLESALE HAM PRICESTrimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly

50556065707580859095

100$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICESSkin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly

70

90

110

130

150

170

190$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICESFresh, 72% Lean, Weekly

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICESTrimmed, Light Poly, Weekly

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



RTC BROILER PRODUCTIONQuarterly

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5


Bil. Pounds

Avg.2008/12

2013

2014

2015



WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICESSkinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly

110120130140150160170180190200210Cents Per Pound

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

P-P-0202/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICESNortheast, Truckload, Weekly

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85Cents Per Pound

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICESNortheast, Truckload, Weekly

100

125

150

175

200

225Cents Per Pound

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



RETAIL CHICKEN PRICEWhole Fresh, Monthly

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Cents Per Pound

Avg.2007-11

2012

2013


Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS

BROILER EGGS SETWeekly

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215Mil. Eggs

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014

P-S-1002/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center


INTERNATIONAL TRADE

U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290


Mil. Pounds

Avg.2007-11

2012

2013

I-N-1601/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Bil. Pounds


Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil. Pounds

Japan




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil. Pounds

Canada




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil. Pounds

Mexico




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil. Pounds

SouthKorea



U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly

125

145

165

185

205

225

245

265


Mil. Pounds

Avg.2007-11

2012

2013



U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Bil. Pounds



MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCESCarcass Weight, Annual

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Australia New Zealand Canada Mexico

Mil. Pounds

Avg.2006/10

2011

2012



CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOAnnual

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Thou. Head



STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUELive Animal Basis, Weekly

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2008-12

2013

2014



Price-Weight Relationship Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7 Mkt. Ave.

125135145155165175185195205215225235245

375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925

weight (pounds)

Pric

e ($

/cw

t) Sep-13Jun-1324-Jan-14Nov-13

Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain January 24, 2014, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma

Weight (lbs)

Average Price ($/cwt.)

Total Value ($/hd)

VOG400 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)

VOG450 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb





400 $231.29 $925 450 $223.03 $1,004 $1.57500 $212.70 $1,063 $1.38 $1.20550 $201.87 $1,110 $1.23 $1.07 $0.94600 $190.39 $1,142 $1.09 $0.92 $0.79 $0.64650 $180.02 $1,170 $0.98 $0.83 $0.71 $0.60 $0.56700 $173.48 $1,214 $0.96 $0.84 $0.75 $0.69 $0.72 $0.88750 $168.79 $1,266 $0.97 $0.87 $0.81 $0.78 $0.82 $0.96800 $165.13 $1,321 $0.99 $0.91 $0.86 $0.84 $0.89 $1.01850 $161.19 $1,370 $0.99 $0.92 $0.88 $0.87 $0.91 $1.00900 $157.45 $1,417 $0.98 $0.92 $0.88 $0.88 $0.92 $0.99

ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNSReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

$ Per Cow


Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

2014 Beef Sector Outlook

• Beef Packers– Margin and volume challenges

• Feedlots– Margin and volume challenges

• Stocker/Backgrounding– Strong value of added feeder weight

• Cow-Calf– Record profits

• Focus on production and cost management– Rebuilding challenges

ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICESSouthern Plains

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

$ Per Cwt

500-600lbSteerCalves

700-800lbFeederSteers

FedSteers

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

THANK YOU!

Documents

2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook