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2017 Weather Survey August 4, 2017 Rune Duke Director of Government Affairs Tom George Alaska Regional Manager

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Page 1: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

2017 Weather Survey

August 4, 2017

Rune Duke Director of Government Affairs

Tom George Alaska Regional Manager

Page 2: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

2 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Introduction Background

The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) has conducted a survey of a portion of our

membership to better understand how general aviation pilots access and perceive the weather

information that is available. Following two AOPA Flight Service surveys1 and a Pilot Report (PIREP)

survey2, all conducted in 2016, we saw the need to further investigate the weather questions that

remained unanswered that would point to the challenges, barriers, and needs of pilots. The survey was

conducted in support of the Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather, an industry and government

weather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This weather survey was constructed with input from the AOPA

Air Safety Institute, FAA’s Flight Service and Weather Technology in the Cockpit departments, and Leidos

Flight Service.

Method

The study was conducted using Qualtrics, an online survey tool. A twenty-eight question survey targeted

pilots with current medicals, and was emailed to 2,851 AOPA Alaskan members and a random sample of

6,004 AOPA members located in the continental United States (CONUS). Several reminders were sent to

these participants over the course of the three-week period that the survey was open.

The results published in this document are categorized by topic and not necessarily presented in the

chronological order the questions were asked. When warranted, the differences between those answers

provided by Alaskan pilots and those in CONUS are highlighted. The numbers shown in different figures

correspond to the questions in the survey. Not all questions were presented to all pilots with that noted

in the pertinent section.

Key Findings

At the highest level, here are a few bullet points that summarize the results of this survey.

• General aviation pilots voice their primary desires are for weather resources to be Electronic

Flight Bag (EFB) and touchscreen friendly;

• Graphical weather products are perceived to be a better value than textual products while also

being easier to interpret;

• Pilots are skeptical when a Flight Service specialist states “VFR not recommended,” and they

desire greater rationale when it is provided and would find it helpful if there was a similar

cautionary statement when briefing online;

• Many pilots voice a need for Flight Service and access to a professional’s weather interpretation;

• FIS-B is improving pilots weather awareness in the cockpit but many pilots remain ignorant of

the limitations of the products;

1 Middlestadt, S. E., Smith, T., Hu, Y., & Ison, D. (June 1, 2016). Technical Research Report on General Aviation Pilot Beliefs About Obtaining a Standard Pilot Weather Briefing. 2 George, T., & Duke, R. (July 26, 2016). AOPA 2016 Pilot Report Survey.

Page 3: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

3 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

• Alaskan pilots access their weather differently from CONUS pilots and use different products,

with weather cameras being very popular in Alaska.

The results are provided in the sections that follow in more detail, both numerically and illustrated with

comments, where appropriate. A series of recommendations are at the end of the document.

Survey Results A total of 103 Alaskan pilots and 275 pilots in CONUS responded, amounting to 378 pilots throughout

the United States who responded during the three-weeks in June 2017 it was open. The number of

Alaskan responses allows for a margin of error of 10% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for

CONUS pilots is 6% at a 95% confidence level. For the sample overall (all pilots who answered

throughout the US), the margin of error is roughly 5%.

Demographics Individuals responding to this survey represented a cross-section of the pilot population, slanted

towards older pilots, with a wide range of flight experience. Most respondents have held their pilot

certificate at least 20 years, about 40% are instrument rated and current, and most have flown a single-

engine piston airplane in the last year. Private and Commercial certificate holders made up a larger

share of respondents than are found in the total pilot population.

Question #1: What is the highest level of pilot certificate that you hold?

Certificate FAA FAA AOPA Survey AOPA Survey

Student 122,729 20.8% 17 4.50%

Sport 5,482 0.9% 0 0.00%

Recreational 191 0.0% 0 0.00%

Private 186,786 31.7% 190 50.26%

Commercial 116,291 19.7% 108 28.57%

ATP 158,559 26.9% 63 16.67%

590,038 100.0% 378 100.00%

Page 4: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

4 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

5%

10% 9%

18%

12%

18% 18%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Less than2 years

2-5 years 6-10 years 11-20years

21-30years

31-40years

41-50years

More than50 years

Q2 - For how long have you had a pilot or student certificate

36

289

127

46

12 2034

53

15 151 6 13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

SE p

isto

n, L

igh

tSp

ort

SE p

isto

n, f

ixe

d g

ear

(no

t Li

ght

Spo

rt)

SE p

isto

n,

retr

acta

ble

gea

r

ME

pis

ton

SE t

urb

op

rop

ME

turb

op

rop

Jet

Seap

lan

e

Ro

torc

raft

Glid

er

Ligh

ter

than

air

Oth

er

I hav

e n

ot

flo

wn

inth

e la

st y

ear

Q3 - Which kind(s) of aircraft have you flown in the last year

41%

23%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Yes, and I am instrumentcurrent

Yes, but I am notinstrument current

No

Q4 - Do you currently hold an instrument rating

Page 5: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

5 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Pre-Flight Weather Resources A series of questions were presented to pilots regarding their sources of weather information at

different stages of flight planning. Question 5 probed at the information sources used during the initial

weather briefing during flight planning. This might take place anywhere from an hour before the flight to

the evening before. The responses to this question are presented in two graphs to easily compare

answers between pilots flying in Alaska and those flying in CONUS as there are infrastructure and

cultural differences.

22%19% 18%

12%9% 9% 8%

2% 1% 0% 0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e

.g.

Fore

flig

ht)

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

r C

ente

ro

nlin

e

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

Oth

er

TIB

S

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

I do

no

t ge

t w

eat

her

bri

efin

gs

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

n W

eat

her

Un

it

Q5 - CONUS: Weather source(s) used for initial weather briefing during flight planning

22%20%

16%14%

9%7%

4% 3% 3% 3%0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

n W

eat

her

Un

it

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e.g

. Fo

refl

igh

t)

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

rC

ente

r o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

TIB

S

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

Oth

er

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

I do

no

t ge

t w

eat

her

bri

efin

gs

Q5 - Alaska: Weather source(s) used for initial weather briefing during flight planning

Page 6: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

6 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

There are some significant differences between how pilots check the weather when comparing those

that fly in CONUS versus Alaska. There is a strong utilization of FAA weather cameras in Alaska, while

more pilots in CONUS use aviation applications, like ForeFlight or Garmin Pilot. This is undoubtedly

influenced by the availability of a state-wide network of weather cameras in Alaska, while CONUS pilots

have a denser matrix of weather stations reporting METARs, which are generally accessible via aviation

apps. In both cases, government provided aviation weather websites (AWC and AAWU) are the next

most popular source of preflight data, with calls to Flight Service as the third most popular source. It is

notable that according to past surveys, greater than 80% of general aviation pilots regularly use an EFB

in the cockpit with most having some aviation app installed that can provide weather information. Both

groups of pilots rarely utilized the Telephone Information Briefing Service (TIBS). Those who selected

“other” predominantly indicated AOPA’s weather webpage, FltPlan.com, Intellicast, or WSI.

Comparing the resources pilots access immediately prior to flight, CONUS pilots increase their utilization

of EFBs and contacting Flight Service via the telephone. Alaskans similarly increase their utilization of

calling but also their usage of the FAA’s weather camera website http://avcamsplus.faa.gov/ as a source

of preflight weather.

29%25%

15%

10% 10%

5% 4%2% 1% 0% 0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e

.g.

Fore

flig

ht)

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

r C

ente

ro

nlin

e

Oth

er

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

TIB

S

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

I do

no

t u

se a

ny

wea

ther

sou

rce

s im

med

iate

lyb

efo

re f

ligh

t

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

n W

eat

her

Un

it

Q6 - CONUS: Weather source(s) accessed immediately prior to flight

25%

20% 19%14%

7%5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 0%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

nW

eath

er U

nit

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e.g

. Fo

refl

igh

t)

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

rC

ente

r o

nlin

e

Oth

er

TIB

S

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

I do

no

t u

se a

ny

wea

the

r so

urc

esim

med

iate

ly b

efo

re…

Q6 - Alaska: Weather source(s) accessed immediately prior to flight

Page 7: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

7 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

When asked about weather sources closer to departure (question 6), CONUS users still preferred

aviation apps, but increased their calls to Flight Service. Alaska pilots continued to favor weather

cameras, which update every ten minutes, with calls to Flight Service being third most popular.

When asked their primary (can only select one) weather resource prior to a flight “under potentially

challenging conditions,” the number of pilots who call Flight Service increases, and moves to first place

for both CONUS and Alaska pilots.

35%

29%

14%10%

9%

2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e

.g.

Fore

flig

ht)

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

r C

ente

ro

nlin

e

Oth

er

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

TIB

S

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

n W

eat

her

Un

it

I do

no

t ch

eck

the

wea

the

rp

rio

r to

flig

ht

Q7 - CONUS: Primary source to check the weather prior to flight (taking place under potentially challenging conditions)

29%

24%20%

10%7%

3% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Flig

ht

Serv

ice

(1

80

0W

XB

RIE

F)

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Ala

ska

Avi

atio

n W

eat

her

Un

it

Avi

atio

n a

pp

licat

ion

(e

.g.

Fore

flig

ht)

Oth

er

Avi

atio

n W

eat

he

r C

ente

ro

nlin

e

TIB

S

CSR

A o

r Le

ido

s o

nlin

e

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d

I do

no

t ch

eck

the

wea

the

r p

rio

r to

flig

ht

Q7 - Alaska: Primary source to check the weather prior to flight (taking place under potentially challenging conditions)

Page 8: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

8 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

The next question asked, “why is this your preferred choice?” We received 349 open responses when

including Alaska and CONUS pilots; however, not all were usable. After categorizing the responses, the

primary rationale for preference was the ability to ask questions and get a professional’s interpretation,

i.e., calling Flight Service. Other frequently provided answers touched on the resource being

comprehensive and like a one-stop-shop, which many EFB apps may be.

Emphasis on Weather Information One of our research goals was to better understand how much emphasis pilots place on receiving

weather information in comparison to aeronautical information, such as NOTAMs. By regulation, pilots

are required to obtain both; however, depending on whether the flight is local or not can change a

pilots’ priority. For example, pilots place greater emphasis on weather information when flying under

Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or when on a long cross-country versus when they are staying local. When

remaining in the local area, many pilots place greater emphasis on aeronautical information.

80

56

47

1915 14 13 9 8 7

CA

N A

SK

QU

ESTI

ON

S,

PR

OFE

SSIO

NA

L O

PIN

ION

EASE

OF

USE

CO

MP

REH

ENSI

VE

, IN

CLU

DES

N

OTA

MS

HA

S G

RA

PH

ICS

REL

IAB

LE

SPEE

D (

FAST

)

CO

NSI

DER

"L

EGA

L" O

R

REC

OR

DED

LEA

RN

ED T

O F

LY

WIT

H IT

, HA

BIT

PLA

IN L

AN

GU

AG

E

SIM

PLE

IN

TER

FAC

E

Q8 - Why is this your preferred choice

Page 9: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

9 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Not at allimportant

Slightlyimportant

Moderatelyimportant

Very important Extremelyimportant

2%

11%

23%

37%

27%

1%8%

16%

32%

43%

Q9 - When preparing to fly VFR in the local area, how important do you feel it is to gather weather information and

other aeronautical information like NOTAMs, TFRs, etc.?

Weather information Other aeronautical information (e.g. TFRs)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Not at allimportant

Slightlyimportant

Moderatelyimportant

Very important Extremelyimportant

0% 1% 2%

23%

74%

0% 1% 6%

24%

69%

Q10 - When preparing to fly VFR on a long cross-country, how important do you feel it is to gather weather information and

other aeronautical information like NOTAMs, TFRs, etc.?

Weather information Other aeronautical information (e.g. TFRs)

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Not at allimportant

Slightlyimportant

Moderatelyimportant

Very important Extremelyimportant

1% 0% 1%13%

85%

1% 1% 5%17%

77%

Q11 - When preparing to fly under instrument flight rules (IFR), how important do you feel it is to gather weather information and other aeronautical information like NOTAMs, TFRs, etc.?

Weather information Other aeronautical information (e.g. TFRs)

Page 10: 2017 Weather Survey - download.aopa.orgweather group, as well as to inform various efforts underway at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

10 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Access to Weather Two of the weather challenges in general aviation are: (1) making the decision to fly to an airport that

may not have any weather reporting; and (2) obtaining weather information enroute. Many small

airports do not have weather reporting, and connectivity challenges can make accessing weather inflight

a challenge. This question was again evaluated to compare CONUS versus Alaska pilots.

29%

18%

15%

12% 12%

8%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

AWOS, ASOS, orATIS over the

radio

Air trafficcontrol

Flight Serviceover the radio

XM Satellite FIS-B Other HIWAS

Q12 - CONUS: Source(s) for in-flight weather information during the cruise phase of a long cross-country flight

37%

33%

9% 8% 8%

3%1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Flight Serviceover the radio

AWOS, ASOS, orATIS over the

radio

Other FIS-B Air trafficcontrol

HIWAS XM Satellite

Q12 - Alaska: Source(s) for in-flight weather information during the cruise phase of a long cross-country flight

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11 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Per question 12, we know pilots operating in CONUS typically are accessing weather directly from

automated stations, or picking it up from ATC, with Flight Service being the third most popular source

identified. In contrast, Alaska pilots often are outside the range of AWOS/ASOS stations due to the lower

density of stations, and have much more limited access to ATC for flight following, which makes their

ability to communicate directly with Flight Service the most frequently used source. Those pilots who

selected the “other” category generally indicated ADS-B weather, ForeFlight, or Stratus, which likely fall

under the “Flight Information Service Broadcast (FIS-B)” category.

15%14% 14%

12% 12%

10% 10%

6% 5%

2% 2%0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Rad

ar o

r sa

telli

te d

ata

via

an a

viat

ion

We

bsi

te/a

pp

Cu

rren

t an

d/o

r h

isto

rica

lM

ETA

Rs

Are

a Fo

reca

st (

text

)

AIR

MET

s an

d S

IGM

ETs

Surf

ace

anal

ysis

or

pro

gno

stic

ch

arts

Gra

ph

ical

fo

reca

st f

or

avia

tio

n

PIR

EPs

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el (

no

n-

avia

tio

n f

ore

cast

)

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d(n

on

-avi

atio

n f

ore

cast

)

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Oth

er

HEM

S to

ol

Q21 - CONUS: For a flight out of the local area to a destination airport without a TAF (or any TAFs nearby), what product(s) are

you likely to use to determine destination weather?

18%

14% 14%11% 11% 10%

9%

6%4%

2% 2%0%

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

FAA

wea

ther

cam

eras

Are

a Fo

reca

st (

text

)

PIR

EPs

Cu

rren

t an

d/o

rh

isto

rica

l MET

AR

s

Rad

ar o

r sa

telli

ted

ata

via

an a

viat

ion

Web

site

/ap

p

AIR

MET

s an

dSI

GM

ETs

Surf

ace

anal

ysis

or

pro

gno

stic

ch

arts

Gra

ph

ical

fo

reca

st f

or

avia

tio

n

Wea

ther

Un

der

gro

un

d (

no

n-

avia

tio

n f

ore

cast

)

Wea

ther

Ch

ann

el(n

on

-avi

atio

nfo

reca

st)

Oth

er

HEM

S to

ol

Q21 - Alaska: For a flight out of the local area to a destination airport without a TAF (or any TAFs nearby), what product(s) are

you likely to use to determine destination weather?

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12 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

For flights to a destination airport without a Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), (Question 21, above), CONUS

pilots rely on observations (radar/satellite data or METARs) before turning to more general forecast

products (Area Forecasts/Airmets, prog charts, etc.). Interestingly, PIREPs are only the seventh most

popular selection to anticipate local conditions. Alaskan pilots turn to weather cameras, then turning to

Area Forecasts or PIREPs as their next products of choice. The general spread across the responses to

this question by both CONUS and Alaska pilots suggests that there isn’t any magic bullet, and pilots are

turning to anything they can find to predict flight conditions.

Knowledge of FIS-B AOPA’s 2016 surveys indicated about 27% of general aviation pilots use FIS-B, very similar to this

survey’s results as 26% of respondents indicated they utilize it. For those who indicated they have it,

several follow-up questions were provided. Our goal was to gauge pilot’s knowledge of this capability

and its latency.

The first question in the series asks pilots about the transmission interval for two weather products. Per

the Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM), the Transmission Interval is the amount of time within

which a new or updated product transmission must be completed and the rate or repetition interval at

which the product is rebroadcast. The correct answer to this question is 5-minutes; however, very few

pilots chose this option with most admitting they did not know.

Another important topic is latency in radar products, discussed at length in a 2017 FAA report3:

“Weather radar ‘mosaic’ imagery created from Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data is

available to pilots in the cockpit via the Flight Information Service-Broadcast (FIS-B)…The age

indicator associated with the mosaic image on the cockpit display does not provide an

appropriate representation of the age of the weather conditions as observed by the NEXRAD

network. Instead, the age indicator displays the age of the mosaic image created by the service

3 Frazier, E. (June 12, 2017). Report No: FAA-20170614.1: Weather Technology in the Cockpit Program, Subtask 4.01, NEXRAD Industry Providers Survey Final Technical Report.

65%

24%

6% 6%0% 0%

58%

17%

1%6% 5%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

I don't know Every 15minutes

Every 2minutes

Every 10minutes

Real-time Every 5minutes

Q13 - For those using FIS-B, knowledge of transmission interval for SIGMETs and AIRMETs

CONUS

Alaska

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13 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

provider. Weather conditions globally depicted on the mosaic image will ALWAYS be older than

the age indicated on the time stamp.

Although such situations are not believed to be typical, in extreme latency and mosaic-creation

scenarios, the actual age of the oldest NEXRAD data in the mosaic can EXCEED the age indication

in the cockpit by 15 to 20 minutes. Even small time differences between the age indicator and

actual conditions can be important for safety of flight, especially when considering fast-moving

weather hazards, quickly developing weather scenarios with fast-moving aircraft. The National

Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) issued its ‘In-Cockpit NEXRAD Mosaic Imagery’ Safety Alert,

clearly stating that age could exceed 15 to 20 minutes by service type or provider.”

At a minimum, NEXRAD is at least 5-minutes old and is likely to have latency adding more time. Most

respondents indicated an adequate amount of time, but many pilots are still not aware of this latency.

Overall, many pilots feel FIS-B has improved their weather awareness and that it is an accurate resource

for information. It is important for pilots to not have the misperception that FIS-B data is more accurate

than other sources as generally they provide the same information.

1%

6%

36%32%

9%

3%

13%

0%

6%

35%

29%

12%

0%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Real-time Less than 5minutes

5-10 minutes 11-15 minutes 16-20 minutes More than 20minutes

I don't know

Q14 - On average, how old do you think the NEXRAD (radar) information provided over FIS-B is?

CONUS

Alaska

3%5%

28%33%

31%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1 - Not at all 2 3 4 5 - To a greatextent

Q15 - To what extent do you feel that weather information over FIS-B has improved your weather

situational awareness while flying

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14 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

VFR Not Recommended (VNR) Flight Service specialists, primarily reached by telephone, are required to inform a pilot if their flight may

encounter certain weather conditions that may make VFR flight unlikely. The verbal statement of “VFR

not recommended” has become a recent topic following Canada’s decision to discontinue their use of it

following pilot complaints.

Pilots in the United States indicate they have mixed feelings about its utilization today but still most give

some weight to the statement when it is verbalized.

1%6%

51%

33%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 - Much lessaccurate

2 3 4 5 - Much moreaccurate

Q16 - How accurate do you perceive your FIS-B information to be compared to other methods

of obtaining the same information

3%5%

13%

24%

54%

8%

16%20% 21%

35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 - No weight at all 2 3 4 5 - A great deal ofweight

Q17 - How much weight do you typically assign a Flight Service specialist's caution that "VFR is not recommended"?

CONUS

Alaska

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15 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

For those pilots who indicated a lower weight, either 1, 2, or 3, a follow-up question requesting a reason

was provided. Many pilots indicated “other” and provided a write-in response. Those responses fell into

the following categories: VNR is over used; specialists are thinking too much about liability; I can decide

without their input; and the briefer uses different criteria than I do.

Pilots showed a preference for more rationale and a probability should VNR be issued by a specialist.

33%

30%

13% 13%

10%

31%

8%

21%

26%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Other I am able to make theVFR flight decision

without a specialist'sinput

I feel the briefer'sjudgement is based ondifferent criteria than I

would use

I am unsure of thebriefer's experienceand/or criteria for

making this statement

The "VFR notrecommended"

statement is usedinconsistently by

briefers

Q18 - Why do you assign the weight that you do to the specialist's caution? (Select all that apply)

CONUS

Alaska

39%37%

10%8%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Better documentationexplaining rationale

A probability statementindicating the chance

of encountering aweather phenomenon

Implementing a higherrisk threshold to limit

the phrase's use

Other Automating thestatement to improve

objectivity

Q19 - In which ways do you feel that "VFR not recommended" advice could be improved? (Select all that apply)

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16 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

When asked about the possibility of automating VNR, almost 70% of pilots indicated they would find this

type of intervention useful.

Aviation Weather Center (AWC) Website The AWC website is a resource that is available for free to pilots and is used by many, but not all, as a

resource. Our goal was to understand how many pilots use this resource and what their opinion is.

For question 25, we asked “are there any improvements that you feel could be made to the Aviation

Weather Center website that would cause you to access it more?” About 16% of respondents said “no,”

72% said “I’m not sure,” and 12% said “yes.” There were 39 open responses received to this question

with the substantive comments provided below. The themes were increasing mobile-friendliness, need

to reduce menu confusion, and requests to alter specific products.

14%

18%

24%

36%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Not at all useful Slightly useful Moderately useful Very useful Extremely useful

Q20 - How useful would you find it to have a statement similar to "VFR not recommended" provided with a

CSRA (www.duats.com) or Leidos (1800wxbrief.com) online standard weather briefing

29%

25%

11%

19%16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Never Sometimes About half thetime

Most of the time Always

Q24 - How often do you access the Aviation Weather Center website (formerly ADDS) before

you fly

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17 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

“I wish it was more graphical like MyRadar, and less about stick figures like those pennant flags for wind

(as an example). In other words, make them dynamic, not static.”

“The icing tool should be made an approved product with legal protection for utilizing the data for

avoidance. Also the turbulence tools should be enhanced for lower altitude levels.”

“Organize it better (by use, not by the product name) - maybe combine various products together into

fewer whole weather pictures.”

“It is not cell phone friendly. Takes to many steps to find an identifier and get a decoded metar. Has

scaling and text size issues. Keys i.e. colors and symbols should be available on a pop up. The graphical

layers overlap making it difficult tell which is high or low level for example.”

“Go look at skyvector.com and make (ADDS) more like that. The interface and usability of skyvector is

great but the products provided by Avn Wx Center is better. I use both because neither website provides

me an adequate picture but combined I can get what I need.”

Textual versus Graphical Weather Products As more graphical weather products replace textual products, we wanted to understand the difference

between how pilots value these two products. We also wanted to understand how comfortable pilots

are as far as interpreting these different products. Overall, pilots place more value in graphical products

and are more comfortable interpreting them than textual products.

0% 1%

10%

19%

70%

1%7%

22%

29%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 - No value 2 3 4 5 - A great deal ofvalue

Q26 - Generally speaking, what amount of value do you place on the following types of online weather product? If

there is a type of product you do not use, select "N/A".

Graphical product Textual product

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18 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

When asked what would help improve interpretation of graphical products, “in-website

support/guidance” was the favorite and an online chat feature was second.

1%5%

13%

33%

48%

3%9%

21%

34% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 - Extremelyuncomfortable

2 3 4 5 - Extremelycomfortable

Q27 - Generally speaking, how comfortable do you feel interpreting the following types of online weather

product? If there is a type of product you do not use, select

"N/A".

Graphical product Textual product

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Q28 - Which of the following would make interpreting graphical weather products provided via online pilot

weather briefing services (such as DUATS) more useful for you? (Select all that apply)

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19 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Weather Improvements Another goal of this survey was to allow general aviation pilots to voice what improvements they would

like to see. Question 22 offered several known areas needing improvement for ranking. Question 23

allowed pilots to provide an open response to what improvements they wanted to see. We grouped the

open responses from this question into categories for comparison.

6%8%

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5%

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stations intoaviationproducts

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resources

Enhanced FIS-B products

Easier PIREPsubmission

method

ImprovedFlight Service(telephone or

radio)

ImprovedAviationWeatherCenter

products

More intuitivegraphicalweatherproducts

More surfaceobservations (

e.g. AWOS)

Q22 - How important would you find each of the following improvements to aviation weather products and services?

Only showing extremely important

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Q23 - Are there any other improvements to weather information currently available to pilots that would you like to

see

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20 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

Discussion Our goal with this survey was to better understand how general aviation pilots access weather

information, the weather challenges they face, and what improvements they desire. It has been several

years since AOPA has conducted a weather-specific survey of our membership but, through the regular

surveying of our members, we hope to be able to gauge improvements and gaps over time. These

surveys also help drive new AOPA educational products and online courses. Summarizing responses and

comments from the different questions and themes identified previously, the following topics are

identified.

Access to Graphical Weather Products

How pilots are accessing weather products has changed over time, largely due to the proliferation of

iPads and tablet technology, and the widespread availability of internet coverage. Weather providers

must keep up with this demand and the new capabilities facilitated by technology. Ensuring websites are

mobile-friendly and usable on touchscreens is important. Also important is the continued support for

graphical products given the perceived increased value, by a wide margin, they have over textual

products. Pilots desire these tools but need them to be provided in a manner that they can access them

on the devices they are using, i.e., EFBs.

Flight Service

Despite the benefits of graphical weather products, pilots clearly indicated a strong preference for

speaking to a Flight Service specialist under a variety of conditions. General aviation pilots generally do

not have a dispatcher or meteorologist available to them, unlike most commercial operators. The option

to be able to speak to a specialist is clearly a safety benefit that pilots rely on when it comes to

understanding weather and obtaining the most current information.

AWC Website Improvements

The AWC is where many weather products are created and their website serves as a free interface to

access this information. Many pilots access this website while many others use their products via third

party providers. It appears pilots would access this AWC website more often if there was greater

interactivity, such as what is coming online with the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA). The GFA is

new and does not yet have a strong following, but it builds off the many lessons learned from the HEMS

tool and integrates aeronautical information with the weather products. Pilots express a preference for

products with ease of use and that are comprehensive. Further modernizing products for accessibility

via EFBs and incorporating aeronautical data in these products, while also facilitating better granularity,

we believe more pilots will use this site as a primary resource.

Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) Website Changes

The AAWU is the Alaska counterpart to the AWC, which generates products for the state (approximately

one fifth the size of CONUS). As the results for this survey show, it too is a popular source of information

for pilots flying in this region. The AAWU has generated graphical forecast products for some time, as

well as providing PIREPs, NEXRAD, satellite and other data. They recently (after this survey was

conducted) changed the look of their website to conform to an National Weather Service standard,

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21 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

which makes it difficult to apply specific comments from this survey; however, the need to support

mobile devices is clearly important for this site as well.

VNR Improvements

The survey shows many Alaskan and CONUS pilots are skeptical when a specialist states VNR, although it

appears they are skeptical for different reasons. Alaskan Flight Service is different than CONUS and our

survey shows there are some differences in what pilots think. Some of this lack of trust is the result of

pilot experience and the specialist being wrong at some point. VNR is an important intervention that

works for some pilots but not all. AOPA had requested via a December 2016 letter that the FAA’s

Weather Technology in the Cockpit research group evaluate VNR to determine whether it is effective.

We appreciate the FAA’s swift response by initiating a study in early 2017. We believe an effective

intervention that can reduce VFR-into-IMC is important.

FIS-B Supporting Infrastructure and Education

AOPA is encouraged that most pilots who utilize FIS-B find it to be of value and that it improves their

weather awareness in the cockpit. More weather products are under development and under discussion

at a working group at RTCA, of which AOPA is a member. We support this effort to provide more

products that are useful for the general aviation pilot. To ensure pilots can receive these products,

additional FIS-B infrastructure, the Ground Based Transmitters (GBT), is needed to facilitate

transmission. Coverage is lacking in much of Alaska and parts of CONUS. Greater FIS-B coverage will

result in numerous safety and efficiency benefits.

Our survey shows general aviation pilots need further education on the limitations of FIS-B provided

products, particularly regarding latency. Pilots must be aware of the transmission intervals and how that

is different from the product update. We continue to see pilots not fully understand the delay in

NEXRAD information and a wide variety of answers when trying to quantify the delay. Many pilots who

use FIS-B are new to this technology and would not have had weather in the cockpit before.

FAA Weather Cameras

When participants were asked about improvements they desire, more surface observations and

increased infrastructure were high on the list. In the open response question, many pilots specifically

stated the infrastructure they desire is more weather cameras. The cameras in Alaska have become a

primary resource for many pilots as they make the decision whether to fly or not. This is most likely due

to (a) a severe shortage of conventional AWOS/ASOS observations in contrast to CONUS, and (b) the

visual nature of this data source to display details of weather conditions beyond the immediate “spot”

measured by an automated weather sensor. Even though the cameras only operate during daylight

hours, they have become a significant source of weather data for pilot decision making in Alaska. Based

on the results of this survey, more investment in this technology and additional locations are desired.

Recommendations Based on the results from this survey, and subsequent meetings and discussions with stakeholders, the

following recommendations are made.

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22 | P a g e A O P A 2 0 1 7 W e a t h e r S u r v e y

1) Weather products should be mobile-friendly and maximize the advantages of graphical

interfaces.

2) Flight Service specialists should remain available and accessible, during preflight and inflight, for

general aviation pilots as they are a primary resource when it comes to weather understanding.

3) The AWC website should be modernized to better integrate different weather products together

and incorporate aeronautical information, such as chart layers.

a. The AWC should promote the GFA and continue to improve this tool’s capabilities.

b. Consider adding interactive tutorial options that would assist a pilot’s understanding of

how to use the products and what the limitations are.

4) The FAA should continue their evaluation of VNR to determine if this phrase is an effective

intervention for pilots who may be at risk for VFR-into-IMC.

a. Flight Service specialists should provide more rationale when conveying VNR to ensure

pilots understand why it was given.

b. The FAA should evaluate whether a probabilistic based determination can be automated

and generate a cautionary statement for pilots who brief online, which is the majority of

pilots.

5) The FAA should continue supporting and developing FIS-B given the weather benefits it

provides.

a. Expanding the GBT infrastructure to improve FIS-B coverage is important to delivering

these products in the remote areas they are needed most.

b. The FAA should provide greater guidance on the topic of latency of FIS-B products and

consider testing pilots on their understanding of these limitations.

6) The FAA should make a greater investment in weather camera infrastructure as it improves

access to remote communities and promotes better weather decision making.

The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) is a not-for-profit individual membership organization of general aviation pilots and aircraft owners. AOPA’s mission is to effectively serve the interests of its members and establish, maintain and articulate positions of leadership to promote the economy, safety, utility and popularity of flight in general aviation aircraft. Representing two thirds of all pilots in the United States, AOPA is the largest civil aviation organization in the world. For more information about this study you may contact: Rune Duke Tom George Director, Government Affairs (Airspace/Air Traffic) Alaska Regional Manager Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association [email protected] [email protected] (202) 509-9515 (301) 695-2092