2020 Demographic Analysis...For audio, dial 1-888-677-1834 and enter passcode: 2680724#Contact the Public Information Office for technical questions at 1-301-763-3030 or [email protected]

For audio, dial 1-888-677-1834 and enter passcode: 2680724#Contact the Public Information Office for technical questions at 1-301-763-3030 or [email protected]

2020 Demographic AnalysisO N L I N E N E W S C O N F E R E N C E

December 15, 2020 | 1 P.M. (EST)

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December 15, 2020 | 1PM EST


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Today’s Speakers(In order of appearance)

Michael C. CookChief, Public Information Office,

U.S. Census Bureau

Dr. Ron JarminDeputy Director and Chief

Operating Officer,U.S. Census Bureau

Dr. Eric JensenSenior Technical Expert

for Demographic Analysis,U.S. Census Bureau

Dr. Victoria VelkoffAssociate Director for

Demographic Programs,U.S. Census Bureau

Dr. Carolyn LieblerAssociate Professor of Sociology,

University of Minnesota

Dr. Jeff PasselSenior Demographer,

PEW Research Center

Dr. Elizabeth AriasStatistical Analysis and

Research Team Leader, National Center for Health Statistics

Karen BattleChief, Population Division,

U.S. Census Bureau

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Welcome Remarks

Ron Jarmin, Ph.D.Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer, U.S. Census Bureau


The 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates: Methodology

Eric Jensen, Ph.D.Senior Technical Expert for Demographics Analysis,Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau


What is Demographic Analysis?

• Demographic Analysis (DA) is a method that the Census Bureau uses to evaluate the quality of the decennial census.

• We produced national estimates of the population as of April 1, 2020 by age, sex, DA race categories, and Hispanic origin.

• Estimates are developed using current and historical vital records, data on international migration, and Medicare records.

• The estimates are used to develop estimates of net coverage error at the national level by demographic detail.


What Demographic Analysis Tells Us About the Quality of the 2020 Census Results

• DA can tell us about the net coverage error for specific age, sex, DA race, and Hispanic origin groups at the national level.

• Net coverage error combines undercounts and overcounts for the same group.

• The strength of DA is what it tells us about differential coverage for demographic groups either within the same census or over time.

• Coverage differentials by race

• Undercount of young children


Demographic Analysis Estimates of Net Coverage Error From 1960 to 2010

Note: Net coverage error is calculated as the percent difference between the census counts and the Demographic Analysis estimates.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Demographic Analysis Program, Special Tabulation.


Demographic Analysis Method

Population = Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration

• Birth records are the foundation of the DA estimates.

• The total estimate for each cohort is calculated by answering two questions:

• Who was in the birth records from 1945 to 2020 but was not living in the United States on April 1, 2020?

• Who was living in the United States on April 1, 2020, but was not in the birth records?


Demographic Analysis Method(continued)

Example

• In 1990-1991, there were 2.1 million male births in the United States.

• From 1990-2020, there were 68,000 male native deaths to that cohort.

• By April 1, 2020, there were an additional 355,000 males added to that cohort due to net international migration.

• We estimate that there should be approximately 2.4 million males in the 2020 Census that are age 29.

Age

Year

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


Demographic Analysis Method(continued)

• We use Medicare enrollment records to estimate the population born before 1945 (ages 75 and older) on April 1, 2020.

• Adjustments are made to account for under-enrollment.

• To calculate the total population, we sum the estimates for each birth cohort from 1945 to 2020 and add them to the estimates of the population 75 years and older.


A Range of Demographic Analysis Estimates

• We produce three series of estimates to account for uncertainty in the data and methods used to create the DA numbers.

• Each series is a plausible estimate of the U.S. population on April 1, 2020.

• We developed the range of estimates by varying the assumptions used to produce the components of population change.

Difference Between the Low and High Series by Population Component

Components Percentage

Births and Deaths 19.7

International Migration 49.7

Oldest Ages (Medicare) 30.6

Total 100.0


Estimates Available at the National Level

• Currently, estimates can only be produced at the national level.

• Birth records tell us where a person was born, but good data are not available to determine where that person was living on Census Day.

• We plan to produce experimental state and county estimates for the population aged 0-4 once the birth records for counties become available in 2022.


The Demographic Analysis Race and Ethnic Categories

• DA estimates have been limited to the Black and non-Black categories primarily for two reasons:

• Information for races other than Black and White is not available for all years and all states in the historical vital statistics data.

• The 2020 Census includes the option of selecting more than one race, but the historical vital statistics did not include this option.

• The uncertainty that this introduces into the classification of births by race limits the usefulness of DA estimates for race categories other than Black and White.

• Hispanic origin information was not available on the birth certificates for all states until 1990.


Demographic Analysis in 2020

• Nearly a decade of research to improve the methods used to produce the 2020 DA estimates

• Increased collaboration with external experts

• Demographers from universities, research centers, state agencies, and other federal agencies

• Released the DA estimates before the 2020 Census results

• The estimates are completely independent of the 2020 Census.


Results of the 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates

Victoria Velkoff, Ph.D.Associate Director for Demographic Programs,U.S. Census Bureau


What is Being Released Today?

• Three sets of Demographic Analysis (DA) population estimates:• Black Alone/non-Black Alone

• Black Alone or in Combination/non-Black Alone or in Combination

• Hispanic (ages 0-29 only)

• National estimates by age, sex, DA race groups, and Hispanic origin

• Low, middle, and high series for each set to measure uncertainty

• Components of population change for all three sets and series • Births, deaths, international migration, and Medicare-based estimates


Results of the 2020 Demographic Analysis


2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates of the U.S. Population as of April 1, 2020

L O W

330,730,000

M I D D L E

332,601,000

H I G H

335,514,000


Total Population by Age and Sex



Total Population by Age for the 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates: April 1, 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

High Series Middle Series Low Series

Age on April 1, 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2020 Demographic Analysis (December 2020 release).

Pop

ula

tio

n in

Mill

ion

s


0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

High Series Middle Series Low Series

Millennial Generation

(1982–2000)

Baby BoomGeneration

(1946–1964)

Total Population by Age for the 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates: April 1, 2020



Pop

ula

tio

n in

Mill

ion

s


3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Population in Thousands

Age

on

Ap

ril 1

, 20

20

FemaleMale

Population Pyramid for the 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates (Middle Series): April 1, 2020



3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Population in Thousands

Age

on

Ap

ril 1

, 20

20

FemaleMale

Baby Boom Generation(1945-1964)

MillennialGeneration(1982-2000)

Population Pyramid for the 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates (Middle Series): April 1, 2020



2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates by Series and Population Component: April 1, 2020


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Total Births Deaths Medicare

Low Series Middle Series High Series

Population Component

Po

pu

lati

on

in T

ho

usa

nd

s

InternationalMigration


Black Alone and Black Alone or in Combination



Demographic Analysis Estimates of the Black Alone and Black Alone or in Combination Populations by Age and Series: April 1, 2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Black Alone Low SeriesBlack Alone Middle SeriesBlack Alone High SeriesBlack Alone or in Combination Low SeriesBlack Alone or in Combination Middle SeriesBlack Alone or in Combination High Series



Po

pu

lati

on

in T

ho

usa

nd

s


Distribution of the 2020 Demographic Analysis Black Alone/Non-Black Alone Estimates by Population Component (Middle Series): April 1, 2020


13.7 15.020.7

11.28.5

86.3 85.079.3

88.891.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Births Deaths Int'l Mig Medicare

Black Alone Non-Black Alone


Pe

rce

nta

ge

International Migration


Distribution of the 2020 Demographic Analysis Black Alone or in Combination/Non-Black Alone or in Combination Estimates by Population Component (Middle Series): April 1, 2020


15.1 16.621.4

12.28.5

84.9 83.478.6

87.891.5

Total Births Deaths Int'l Mig MedicarePopulation Component

0

20

40

60

80

100Black Alone or in Combination Non-Black Alone or in Combination

Pe

rce

nta

ge



Hispanic/Non-Hispanic



Demographic Analysis Estimates of the Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Populations by Age and Series: April 1, 2020

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27



— Hispanic Low Series — Hispanic Middle Series — Hispanic High Series

— Non-Hispanic Low Series — Non-Hispanic Middle Series — Non-Hispanic High Series

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000P

op

ula

tio

n In

Th

ou

san

ds


Distribution of the 2020 Demographic Analysis Hispanic/Non-Hispanic Estimates by Population Component (Middle Series): Ages 0-29 on April 1, 2020


24.6 22.817.0

46.9

75.4 77.283.0

53.1

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Total Births Deaths Int'l Mig

Hispanic Non-Hispanic


Pe

rce

nta

ge



Next Steps

• Report on DA estimates of net coverage error to be produced in 2021

• Experimental sets of estimates to be produced in 2021 and 2022:

• Extended Hispanic origin (ages 0-39)

• Churning race (ages 0-85+)

• Full race and Hispanic origin detail (ages 0-17)

• State and county estimates (ages 0-4)


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For audio, dial 1-888-677-1834 and enter passcode: 2680724#Contact the Public Information Office for technical questions at 301-763-3030 or [email protected]



Collaboration With External Demographers

Dr. Carolyn LieblerAssociate Professor of Sociology,

University of Minnesota

Dr. Jeff PasselSenior Demographer,PEW Research Center

Dr. Elizabeth AriasStatistical Analysis and Research

Team Leader, National Center for Health Statistics


December 15, 2020

Press *1 to ask a question

Q&A


Closing Remarks

Karen BattleChief, Population Division,U.S. Census Bureau



Subscribe: Census Bureau news and updates at .

Connect with us on Twitter: @uscensusbureau

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2020 Demographic Analysis...For audio, dial 1-888-677-1834 and enter passcode: 2680724#Contact the Public Information Office for technical questions at 1-301-763-3030 or [email protected]