4.ª Conferência da Central de Balanços - Benchmarks and ... · 4.ª Conferência da Central de Balanços - Benchmarks and scoreboards - the growing use of statistics for European

Benchmarks and scoreboards

- the growing use of statistics for European policy-making

4th Central Balance Sheet Conferences

Banco de Portugal, Madeira, 22 October 2014

Aurel Schubert

Director General Statistics

European Central Bank

ECB-UNRESTRICTED

www.ecb.europa.eu ©

Outline

2 Challenges in ESCB’s statistics production

1 Growing use of statistics for European policies

ECB-PUBLIC

3 Conclusions

2


ESCB statistics are vital for:

• ECB’s monetary policy

• Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic

risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems

oversight, risk management…)

Growing use of statistics for European policies

3


ECB‘s growing tasks requiring statistics

• Increasing role of Financial Stability Statistics

• Statistical support to the Banking Union („micro-prudential

policy“)

• Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board

(„macro-prudential policy“)

• ECB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps

• ECB statistics are a public good

4



• The EU reforms following the crisis

• Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools)

and to enforce policy compliance

Financial

supervisory

policies

Fiscal

policies

Macro-

economic

policies

Statistics are key to EU policy-makers’ decisions

ESRB

“Risk-Dashboard”

For macro-prudential

policy

Commission

scoreboard

for

“macro-imbalance”

Procedure


5


Content:

50 Risk-Indicators and 6 Risk-Typologies

Objectives

Risk assessment

Input to further systemic risk analysis Communication tool

Macro risk Credit risk Market risk Funding and Liquidity Interlinkages Profitability & Solvency

ESRB Risk Dashboard - Macro-prudential policy

6

www.esrb.europa.eu

9 issues since 20 September 2012

• Allows a synthetic view of the situation and allows to focus on specific aspects

• Gives a first indication where to focus deeper analysis. Cannot replace expert

judgment, but complements it

http://www.esrb.europa.eu/

www.ecb.europa.eu © 7

6 of 11 indicators are based on statistics shared

competence between ESS/ESCB

General Government Debt

Financial sector liabilities

Private sector debt

Private sector credit flow

House prices

Unemployment

Current account balance

Net investment position

Real effective exchange rates

Share of world exports

Nominal unit labor costs

ESS

ESS/ESCB

ESS/ESCB

ESS/ESCB

ESS

ESS

ESS/ESCB

ESS/ESCB

Commission (ECFIN)

ESS/ESCB

ESS

Scoreboard

Scoreboard for EU macro-economic surveillance


Commission Scoreboard – outcome for 2012

8

Latest release: 13 November 2013


• Increased policy relevance quality of statistics of greater

importance

- Statistics now trigger warnings, recommendations, corrective actions and eventually

fines

• Statistics should not be subject to political considerations

(“independence”)

• Robust quality standards systematically applied

9

Growing use of statistics for European policies: Quality


Challenges in ESCB statistics production

More detailed data

• Country data

• Micro-databases

• Distributional data

• Reporting burden

• Confidentiality

• Compiler’s resources

Increasing

demands

Facing

constraints

10


• In addition to euro area/EU aggregates, there is also a

need for EU individual country data (e.g. for country

missions)

More detailed data: individual countries

11


• More granular data collection

• More resource intensive for compilers, less costly for reporting agents

• Increased flexibility in responding to (complex) data requests

• Examples:

More detailed data: micro-datasets

Development of micro-datasets

• Centralised Securities Database

• Securities Holdings Statistics

• Credit register (Ana Credit)

• Supervisory data

• Register of Financial Institutions

• Household and corporate surveys

12

1. Importance SME euro area

economy:

• 99.8% (number of firms)

• 60% (turnover)

• 70% (employment)

2. Euro area data: SME financing

situation very heterogenous

3. In Portugal access to financing for

SME was somewhat less of a

concern but

• 43% of SMEs perceive it as a very

pressing problem (giving it 7-10 on a

scale of 1-10)

More detailed data: distributions Survey on SME Access to Finance

13


Accessibility to statistics

• ECB website

– Press releases

– Interactive graphics

– Publications

• Statistical Data Warehouse

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu

14

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/


1. Increased policy relevance of statistics

2. Statistics = powerful tool for communication and cooperation with

policy makers and relevant stakeholders

3. Quality of statistics is crucial, starting from the quality of the input data

4. Access to statistics as an important aspect of accountability and credibility

Conclusions

15


Thank you for your reporting and for your attention !!!

Any questions?


Annex


European System of Central Banks (ESCB) = ECB + 28 National Central Banks (NCBs) of the European Union Eurosystem = ECB + 18 NCBs of EU countries which have adopted the euro


The ESCB’s own produced European statistics

The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the

national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market

and short-term business statistics)

… and also data from commercial data providers

Monetary and financial

statistics

External statistics

Securities statistics

Quarterly euro area accounts

Supervisory statistics

Other statistics

decision making is supported by

19

Production of ESCB Statistics


Responsibility

• General economic statistics

• All non-economic statistics

Responsibility

• Monetary and financial statistics

• Quarterly financial accounts

• International reserves

• Effective exchange rates

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

Committee on Monetary,

Financial and Balance of

Payments Statistics

Shared responsibility

• B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics

• European accounts by sector

• Statistical infrastructure

European System of Central Banks

(ESCB)/Eurosystemm

European Statistical System

(ESS)

EU National

Central Banks

ECB

EU National

Statistical

Institutes

Two statistical systems

Documents

4.ª Conferência da Central de Balanços - Benchmarks and ... · 4.ª Conferência da Central de Balanços - Benchmarks and scoreboards - the growing use of statistics for European