6.5 x 11 Double line - Cambridge University Pressassets.cambridge.org/97805218/82521/index/9780521882521_index.pdf · 494 Index APEC (Asia-Paciﬁc Economic Cooperation), 325 Aquino,

Index

31 December Women’s Movement (Ghana),300

Abdullah, Badawi, 327–8ABIM (Malaysian Islamic Youth Movement),

319, 323Abkhazia, 221, 222Access to Information and Protection of Privacy

Act (Zimbabwe), 243Action Front for Renewal and Development

(Benin), 295active leverage, 91acquis communautaire, 88ADEMA (Alliance for Democracy in Mali),

297–8, 307Adil (Movement for Social Justice, Malaysia),

325ADP (Agrarian Democratic Party of Moldova),

230–1Afghanistan, 46, 109AFORD (Alliance for Democracy, Malawi),

284, 285Africa, 4, 35, 236, 239, 252, 255, 259, 266, 274,

282, 283, 292, 293, 297, 305–6civil society in, 25, 46, 236; democracy

promotion/conditionality in, 40, 236;economy in, 60, 77, 177; leverage in, 237;linkage in, 23, 25, 45, 237; opposition in,25, 30, 31, 236, 260; organizational poweracross, 36, 55, 74, 80, 236–7. See alsocountries by name

Afro-Shirazi Party (Zanzibar), 252Agrarian Democratic Party of Moldova. See

ADPAguayo, Sergio, 151Aguilar Zinser, Adolfo, 151

Ahidjo, Ahmadou, 258–9Akayev, Askar, 55Akufo-Addo, Nana, 305Albania, 4, 78, 282, 124, 329, 346, 350

civil society in, 119; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 12, 21, 22, 82, 87, 119,121–24, 341, 342, 369, 370; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 13, 90, 121–4;EU role in, 122–4; leverage in, 119, 122–4,373; linkage in, 46, 91, 119–24, 375;opposition in, 121–2, 349; organizationalpower in, 29, 30, 31, 57, 59, 73, 77, 98,120–1, 128–9, 357, 379–80; UNpeacekeeping force in, 122; U.S. role in,123

Albright, Madeleine, 168Aleman, Arnoldo, 144Alia, Ramiz, 121Aliyev, Heydar, 34Alliance for Democracy (Malawi). See AFORDAlliance for Democracy in Mali. See ADEMAAlternative Front (Malaysia). See BAAmericas, the, 3, 4, 40, 309

lack of countervailing power in, 41–2;economy in, 67, 236; leverage in, 53,130–79, 219, 352; linkage in, 23, 25, 36, 44,50, 53, 70, 85–6, 130–79, 181, 185, 221,352; OAS role in, 18

Americas Watch, 156Amoussou, Bruno, 295Andrianarivo, Tantely, 281Angola, 32, 46, 109ANM (Armenian National Movement), 208–11antigos combatentes, 248, 354Anwar, Ibrahim, 9, 12, 55, 324–28

493

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494 Index

APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation),325

Aquino, Benigno, 60AREMA (Vanguard of the Malagasy

Revolution, Madagascar), 277–81Argentina, 14, 15, 17, 35, 69Aristide, Jean-Bertrand, 29, 55, 59, 170–7,

354armed forces. See security forcesArmenia, 4, 42, 185

attack of parliament in, 210, 211; CentralElection Committee in, 210; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 20, 21, 22, 82, 89,183–6, 209–13, 233–4, 341, 369, 370;discretionary state economic power in,210; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 13, 28, 207–13, 342; leverage in,185, 207–8, 210, 212, 221, 373; linkage in,45, 48, 214, 207–8, 221, 352, 375;Nagorno–Karabakh conflict in, 208–9; roleof nationalism/past violent conflict in,208–9; opposition in, 70, 184, 210, 212–13,216, 348, 349, 356; organizational powerin, 25, 29, 55, 57, 60, 61, 68, 69, 73, 77, 90,186, 207–13, 233, 345, 349, 350, 356, 358,379–80; U.S. role in, 207–8, 210, 212

Armenian National Movement. See ANMArmenian Revolutionary Party. See DashniaksArmy. See security forcesASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian

Nations), 318, 334, 335Asia, 3, 4, 35, 36, 40, 317, 318, 321, 322

civil society in, 25; countervailing power in,131; leverage in, 181, 309; linkage in, 181,309; opposition in, 25; organizationalpower across, 181

Asian Financial Crisis (1997), 324Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. See

APECAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations. See

ASEANATT. See Toure, Amadou ToumaniAtta Mills, John, 305Austria, 93, 374authoritarian backsliding, 91, 299authoritarianism

competitive vs. noncompetitive, 6–7, 13,33–4; constitutions and, 80; institutionaldesign and, 78, 80; party strength and,67–8; post-Cold War internationalenvironment and, 18–19, 24, 27, 42, 54, 69,91; and transitions from, 25, 54, 69; typesof, 15–16, 26–7; security apparatuses and,57; state strength and, 57, 67–8. See alsocompetitive authoritarianism; countries by

name; stable authoritarianism; unstableauthoritarianism

authoritarian stability. See stableauthoritarianism

Azarov, Mykola, 216Azerbaijan

term limits in, 80; dynastic succession in, 29;as fully authoritarian regime, 34; andRussian pressure, 185; and statediscretionary control of economy, 343; warwith Armenia, 55, 186, 207, 208, 358

BA (Alternative Front, Malaysia), 326, 327Baker, Bruce, 80Balaguer, Joaquin, 33, 82, 132–7, 169, 352Banda, Hastings, 11, 29, 268, 282–5, 291, 355Banda, Rupiah, 291Bangladesh, 32, 170Barisan Nasional (Malaysia). See BNBasescu, Traian, 103BDP (Botswana Democratic Party), 238, 255–8Belarus, 4, 78, 183, 346, 348

civil society in, 31, 205; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 12, 14, 20, 21, 22, 82,89, 183–6, 203–7, 233–4, 341, 342, 369,370; constitution in, 79, 80, 183, 204;Constitutional Court in, 12, 79, 204–5;constitutional referendum in, 204;constitutional reform in, 80; discretionarystate economic power in, 201, 202–3, 206;Election Commission in, 204; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 9, 10, 12,13, 58, 202–7; EU role in, 201, 205;opposition in, 70, 204–6, 348, 349;legislature in, 80, 204; leverage in, 24, 186,217, 201–7, 220, 352, 373; linkage in, 46,50, 51, 201, 206, 375; organizational powerin, 59, 186, 66, 67, 68, 73, 77, 83, 90, 201,343, 349, 350, 357, 379–80; Russia, asblack knight in, 41, 185–6, 201, 214, 232;U.S. role in, 205–6

Bellin, Eva, 57Benin, 4, 17, 24, 33, 78, 329

civil society in, 291; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 21, 22, 293–7, 305–8,340, 341, 369, 370; Constitutional Courtin, 293–6, 359; constitutional reform in,293; discretionary state economic powerin, 295; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 293–7; Electoral Commission in,294, 296, 303; legislature in, 294; leveragein, 24, 181, 276, 292, 340, 373; linkage in,30, 52, 276, 292, 340, 375; NationalConference in, 291; opposition in, 69,293–6, 348, 349, 357; organizational






Index 495

power in, 60–69, 71, 73, 83, 181, 237, 250,263, 267, 276, 291–7, 340, 349, 379–80

Benin Resistance. See RBBerezovsky, Boris, 198Berisha, Sali, 82, 121–23Berlin Wall, fall of, 17, 237Bersih (Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections,

Malaysia), 327Biya, Paul, 258–64, 307black knight

definition/measurement of, 41, 372; Albaniaand, 119; Belarus and, 186, 201, 206, 232,233, 342, 343; Benin and, 276, 292; Boliviaand, 178–9; Botswana and, 255; Cameroonand, 237, 258, 262, 305, 308; China as, 41,309, 373; Ecuador and, 178–9; France as,41, 258, 262, 263, 292, 305, 373; Gabonand, 237, 258, 263, 305, 308; Ghana and,300; Georgia and, 185, 221; Japan as, 309,373; Kenya and, 265, 266, 273, 307;Macedonia and, 124; Madagascar and, 276,277; Malawi and, 276, 282; Mali and, 276,297; Moldova and, 185; Nicaragua and,178–9; Peru and, 162; Russia as, 41, 185,214, 221, 232, 233, 342, 343, 373; Senegaland, 265, 276, 307; Slovakia and, 91; SouthAfrica as potential, 238, 243; Tanzania and,251; Ukraine and, 214; Venezuela aspotential, 131, 179; Zambia and, 276, 288,289; Zimbabwe and, 238, 243

Blanco, Salvador Jorge, 135BN (Barisan Nasional, Malaysia), 11, 320–4,

326–8BNF (Botswana National Front), 257–8Bogdanov, Andrei, 200Boix, Carles, 75Bolanos, Enrique, 144, 352Bolivia, 178–9Bolona, Carlos, 164Bongo, Ali-Ben 265Bongo, Omar, 263–5, 359Boni, Yayi, 33, 292, 296, 340boomerang effect, 18, 44, 51, 143, 352.

See also double boomerang effectBosch, Juan, 135Bosnia, 104–6, 107, 108–9, 113, 116, 124,

366Bosnia-Herzegovina, 32Botswana, 4, 78, 246, 346

competitive authoritarianism in, 20, 21, 22,33, 254–8, 305–8, 341, 369, 370;discretionary state economic power in,255–6; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 8, 35, 255–8; leverage in, 255, 373;linkage in, 255, 375; opposition in, 256,

258; organizational power in, 30, 237, 238,254–8, 266, 379–80

Botswana Congress Party, 257–8Botswana Democratic Party. See BDPBotswana National Front. See BNFBrazil, 15, 21, 33, 35, 131Brigadistas, 139Britain. See United KingdomBritish Know-How Fund, 92brown areas, 59, 222, 297Brownlee, Jason, 26, 61Bulgaria, 17, 32, 33, 34, 47, 100, 124,

201Bulldozer Revolution, 30Bunce, Valerie, 54bureaucratic authoritarianism, 7, 15.

See also full authoritarianismBurjanadze, Nino, 224–6Burjanadze-Democrats (Georgia), 225Burkina Faso, 33, 80, 343Burma, 73, 206, 352, 353Burnham, Forbes, 80, 147–8Bush administration (1989–1992), 154Bush administration (2001–2008), 176Bush, George H. W., 100, 143, 154, 163Bush, George W., 199, 226, 228

CAFTA (Central American Free TradeAgreement), 137, 144

Calderon, Felipe, 151, 160Cambodia, 3, 4, 17, 78, 248, 346

civil society in, 31, 328; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 12, 14, 20, 21, 22, 28,33, 76, 82, 309, 328–37, 337–8, 341, 369,370; constitution in, 79; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 8, 9, 11, 13,28, 58, 330–7; Electoral Commission in,335; legislature in, 333, 335; leverage in,50, 249, 352, 329, 373; linkage in, 44, 48,50, 86, 329, 344, 375; opposition in, 69, 70,328, 332–7, 348, 349, 357; organizationalpower in, 25, 31, 57, 62, 328–37, 343–4,358, 379–80; UN role in, 330–3, 334, 335;and Vietnam in, 329, 331

Cambodian People’s Party. See CPPCameroon, 4, 80

civil society in, 263; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 21, 22, 259–63, 305–8,341, 369, 370; Constitutional Council in,262; constitutional reform in, 80;discretionary state economic power in,259; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 9, 13, 30, 258–63; ethno-regionalcleavage in, 260–3; France as black knightin, 41, 258, 260–2; leverage in, 24, 258–9,






496 Index

Cameroon (cont.)261, 373; linkage in, 45, 258, 375;opposition in, 259–62, 264, 273, 348, 349;organizational power in, 30, 31, 237,258–63, 265, 266, 269, 296, 303, 349, 350,379–80; U.S. role in, 261

Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement. SeeCPDM

Cameroon People’s Union. See UPCCanada, 150, 214Cannibal Army, 176capital mobility, 76Cardenas, Cuauhtemoc, 153–4, 158Cardoso, Carlos, 251Carey, Henry, 172Caribbean, 34, 86, 130, 133, 145, 146, 172, 177Caribbean Basin, 44, 46Caribbean Basin Initiative, 133Caribbean Community, 149Carpizo, Jorge, 156, 158Carter, Jimmy, 141, 143–4, 148Carter Center, 144, 148–9, 168Castaneda, Jorge, 151Castro, Fidel, 130, 134, 362Castro, Raul, 362Catholic Church, 114, 283, 141CCM (Chama Cha Mapinduzi, Tanzania), 63,

64, 247, 252–4, 266CDN (Nicaraguan Democratic Coordinator),

140CDR (Democratic Convention, Romania), 101,

102Ceausescu, Nicolae, 98–101, 252Central African Republic, 4Central America, 34, 130, 137, 139, 152Central American Free Trade Agreement. See

CAFTACentral Asia, 236Central Election Committee (Armenia), 210Central Elections Board (Dominican Republic).

See JCECentral Intelligence Organization, Zimbabwe.

See CIOCEP (Provisional Electoral Council, Haiti),

174–5Chad, 80Chakuamba, Gwanda, 285Chama Cha Mapinduzi. See CCMChamorro, Joaquin, 60Chamorro, Violeta, 52, 138, 142–4Change 90 (Peru), 163Chanturia, Giorgi, 222Chavez, Hugo, 12, 82, 170, 178Chavunduka, Mark, 243Chechnya, 46, 190, 194, 196, 366

Chen, Li-an, 316Ch’en, Lu-an, 311Chen, Shui-bian, 317–18Chernomyrdin, Victor, 194–5Chesoni, Zacchaeus, 268Chiang, Ching-kuo, 309, 314Chiang, Kai-shek, 313Chihana, Chakufwa, 284Chile, 21Chiluba, Frederick, 29, 82, 288–91, 359Chilumpha, Cassim, 287Chimeres, 28, 174, 176China, 120, 138, 150, 198, 333, 334

as black knight, 41, 309, 373; as closedregime, 7; and global balance of power,363; and limits on external pressure in, 19,41; linkage and leverage, 352, 361; andnon-Western linkage, 50; andorganizational power, 57, 354, 361, 362,363; and rapprochement with West, 313;and Taiwan, 310, 311, 313, 314, 316, 318

Chinese Communist Party, 61, 313, 362Chissano, Joaquim, 249–51Christian Council of Churches in Madagascar,

278Church of Jesus Christ in Madagascar. See

FJKMCIO (Central Intelligence Organization,

Zimbabwe), 239CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States),

89, 185, 214Cisse, Soumaıla, 298–9Citizen Coalition for Constitutional Change

(Kenya), 269Citizen’s Union of Georgia. See CUGCivic Alliance (Mexico), 151, 158, 159civic movements. See civil societycivil liberties, 6, 8–9, 13–15, 19, 21, 33, 42–3,

51, 366–7. See also legal repression;countries by name

civil societyand Communist regimes, 69, 87; co-optation

of, 28, 54, 64; diffusion of, 18; anddiscretionary economic power of the state,67; and economy, 31, 67; and linkage, 44,50; strength of, 19, 24, 69; transnationaldimension of, 25, 44, 53, 70; weakness of,56, 69, 85. See also countries by name

Civil Society Development Foundation, 96Clauthier, Manuel, 151Clinton, Bill, 109, 169Clinton administration, 46, 136, 154, 174,

195closed regime, 7, 13, 15, 17, 56, 73, 360. See also

full authoritarianism






Index 497

CNN effect, 44coalitional strategy, and opposition parties,

30–1coercion

high intensity, 57–8, 60; and incumbents,69–70; informal mechanisms of, 27–8; lowintensity, 58–9, 67. See also countries byname; security forces; state coercivecapacity

coercive apparatus. See security forces; statecoercive capacity

cohesion. See elite cohesion; party strength;state coercive capacity

Cold War era, 3, 17, 20, 34, 351, 361, 363, 364Colina Group, 165Collier, David, 13–14Collins, Rudy, 148Colombia, 15, 32color revolutions, 54, 184, 348. See also

countries by nameColosio, Luis Donaldo, 158Colton, Timothy, 78Committee of National Salvation (Ukraine),

219Committees for the Defense of the Revolution

(Benin), 292Committees for the Defense of the Revolution

(Ghana), 300Committee on Security in Ukraine. See SBUCommittee for State Security (Soviet Union).

See KGBcommunism, collapse of, 87–8, 100. See also

Soviet Union, collapse ofCommunist Party of Cuba, 363Communist Party of Moldova. See PCRMCommunist Party of the Russian Federation.

See KPRFCommunist Party of the Soviet Union, 36, 184,

187, 188, 190, 204, 214Commonwealth of Independent States. See CIScommunication ties

and EU leverage, 129; and geographicproximity, 104; and linkage measurement,374–5; in Belarus, 201; in Cambodia, 329;in Georgia, 221; in Moldova, 228; inTaiwan, 311; and U.S.–Mexican ties, 151.See also Internet; linkage

Community Development Agency (Malaysia),322

competitive authoritarianismcivil liberties in, 8–9; contestation/

uncertainty in, 12–13; definition of, 3,5–16; vs. democracy, 7, 12–13, 37, 365–8;distinctive logic of, 17–20; diverging pathsof, 5, 23–4; elections in, 7–8; as hybrid

regime subtype, 13–16; indicators of,365–8; informal institution in, 27–8;leverage in, 38–43, 50–4; lifespan of, 21;linkage in, 38–40, 43–54; vs.noncompetitive/full authoritarianism, 6–7,12–13, 365; organizational power in,54–68; opposition strength under, 68–70;party behavior in, 29–32, 63–4; regimetrajectories in, 20–7, 37–8; rise of, 16–20;stability of, 57–61; succession in, 28–9;uneven playing fields in, 9–13. See alsocountries by name

conditionalityand linkage/leverage, 24–5; and electoralism,

42–3; multilateral, 17–18, 39; spatial effectsof, 40. See also countries by name; See alsodemocratizing pressure; European Union

Congo, 32, 46, 241Congo-Brazzaville, 4, 32Congressional Black Caucus, 46, 136, 174Congressional Hispanic Caucus, 136Constantinescu, Emil, 52, 102, 103Constitution, 63, 80

in Belarus, 79, 80, 183, 204; in Cambodia, 79;in Croatia, 79; in Gabon, 264; in Ghana,301–3; in Haiti, 79; in Kazakhstan, 80; inKenya, 269; in Madagascar, 79; in Malawi,285; in Malaysia, 79; in Mexico, 79; inMozambique, 248; in Nicaragua, 144, 145;in Peru, 79, 80–1, 163–4; in Romania, 79;in Russia, 79, 80, 183; in Turkmenistan,80; in Uzbekistan, 80

Constitutional Council (Cameroon), 261–2Constitutional Court 63, 359

in Belarus, 12, 79, 204–5; in Benin, 293–7,359; in Cameroon, 261–2; in Croatia, 117;in Kenya, 269; in Madagascar, 279; in Mali,298; in Moldova, 359; in Peru, 20, 80,166–7; in Russia, 192; in Slovakia, 93; inUkraine, 218. See also countries by name

constitutional designas competing theory of regime outcomes, 27;

and Eastern European democratization,129; as endogenous to regime outcomes,80; and former Soviet Union, 81, 183, 233;and formal institutions, 358; and regimeoutcomes, 78, 346, 351, 357. See alsoinstitutional design

Constitutional Liberal Party (Nicaragua). SeePLC

constitutional oligarchy, 14. See also hybridregime

constitutional reform, 80in Belarus, 80; in Benin, 293; in Croatia, 81;

in Gabon, 263; in Ghana, 301–2; in






498 Index

constitutional reform (cont.)Guyana, 80; in Kenya, 270, 272; inMadagascar, 79, 278; in Malaysia, 79; inMoldova, 359; in Romania, 80; in Russia,79; in Peru, 20, 80, 164; in Slovakia, 93; inTaiwan, 313, 316; in Zambia, 289, 290; inZimbabwe, 80

Constitutional Review Commission (Kenya),269

Constitutional Tribunal of Peru, 20, 80, 166–7Contras, 140–1Copenhagen criteria, 88, 94Cornea, Doina, 101Corona, Norma, 156Correa, Rafael, 178Costa Rica, 138, 142, 172Cote d’Ivoire, 34Council of Europe, 89, 94, 98, 100, 112, 116,

185, 206counter-hegemon. See black knightCountry of Law (Armenia), 212coups (civilian/military), 32, 42, 47, 131, 226

absence in Kenya, 266; absence in Malaysia,320; absence in Mexico, 152; absence inZimbabwe, 255; in Benin, 292; inCambodia, 334; in Ghana, 300; inGuatemala, 51; in Haiti, 173, 176; inHonduras, 131, 173; in Mali, 297–8; inPeru, 48, 81, 130, 162–4, 165, 166

coup attemptsas indicator of weak state cohesion, 377; in

Cameroon, 259; in Georgia, 222; inGhana, 300; in Mali, 297; in Soviet Union,188, 222; in Venezuela, 131; in Zambia,288, 289

CPDM (Cameroon People’s DemocraticMovement), 259–63

CPP (Cambodian People’s Party), 328–36, 337,344, 358

CRN (National Reconciliation Committee,Madagascar), 280–1

Croatia, 4, 78competitive authoritarianism in, 12, 21, 22,

82, 87, 113, 128–9, 341, 369; constitutionin, 79; Constitutional Court in, 117;discretionary state economic power in,115; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 9, 114–18; electoral authorities in,115, 359; and ethnic civil war, 85, 91, 105,106, 107, 113, 114–16; EU role in, 48, 49,116–18; legislature in, 81, 115, 117;leverage in, 114–16, 373; linkage in, 47, 49,51, 85, 114–18, 132, 228, 375; nationalismas ideology in, 61, 114–15, 118; NATOrole in, 117–18; opposition in, 81, 115,

117–18, 356; organizational power in, 85,114–18, 347, 379–80; U.S. role in, 116

Croatian Catholic Church, 114Croatian Democratic Union. See HDZCroatian Party of Rights. See HSPCruz, Arturo, 138Cuba, 7, 131, 139, 146, 206, 353, 360–3Cuban Revolution, 362CUG (Citizen’s Union of Georgia), 221, 223–5Czechoslovakia, 92–3Czech Republic, 81, 92, 94

Dahl, Robert, 5–6Dahomey. See BeninDansokho, Amath, 276DAP (Democratic Action Party, Malaysia), 322,

325–8Dashniaks (Armenia), 208–11, 212Dayton Accords, 91, 105, 109, 116Debswana mining company, ties to BDP,

255defection, of elites. See elite defectiondefective democracy, 15. See hybrid regimeDefenders of the Land (Armenia). See

Yerkrapahde la Madrid, Miguel, 151Demirchian, Karen, 211Demirchian, Stepan, 211democracy

vs. competitive authoritarianism, 7, 12–13,37; definition of, 3, 5–6, 368; civil libertiesin, 6, 42; hybrid regimes and, 15; playingfield and, 6; promotion of, 19, 42–3;scoring of, 368; and state strength, 56–7;types of, 13–15

Democratic Action Party (Malaysia). See DAPdemocratic conditionality. See conditionality;

democratizing pressureDemocratic Convention (Romania). See CDRDemocratic Opposition of Serbia. See DOSDemocratic Party (Kenya), 268Democratic Party (Serbia), 111–13Democratic Party of Albania. See PDDemocratic Party of Albanians. See DPADemocratic Party of Serbia. See DSSDemocratic Progressive Party (Malawi). See

DPPDemocratic Progressive Party (Taiwan). See

DPPDemocratic Russia, 187, 191Democratic Union (Slovakia), 95Democratic Union for Integration

(Macedonia). See DUIDemocratization, 3–4, 21–2, 26–7, 37–8, 75,

85–91, 386. See also countries by name






Index 499

democratizing pressureexternal/Western, and linkage, 23, 25, 43–5,

50–3, 85, 339, 351, 361; and leverage,24–5, 40–3, 50–3, 71; and post-Cold Warinternational environment, 19; variationacross cases in, 40, 181; in Africa, 236–7; inAmericas, 131, 177; in Belarus, 186; inBenin, 276; in Cambodia, 337; in Croatia,114, 115, 118; in former Soviet Union,184–5; in Georgia, 221; in Ghana, 300; inKenya, 265; in Madagascar, 276; inMalawi, 276; in Mali, 276; in Mexico, 149;in Peru, 162; in Romania, 98; in Russia,187, 193; in Senegal, 265; in Serbia, 105; inTaiwan, 310; in Tanzania, 254; in Zambia,276; in Zimbabwe, 240. See also EuropeanUnion; OAS; OSCE; countries by name

demonstration effects, 24, 38, 44. See also linkageDepartment of North American Affairs (created

by KMT), 310Dhlakama, Afonso, 249–51Diacov, Dumutri, 231Diamond, Larry, 15, 360diasporas

Armenian, 207; and Haiti, 171, 174;Croatian, 114, 115; and linkage, 43, 45–6;and Taiwanese, 311, 312; Ukrainian, 214

diffusion effectsand existing scholarship, 24, 38, 44;

compared to linkage, 45; and multipartyelections, 19; and opposition strategies, 54,183; and geospatial dependence, 40; andWestern democratic models, 17

−Dindic, Zoran, 30, 111–13Diouf, Abdou, 274–5discretionary economic power. See economic

controlDominican Republic, 4, 78, 172

Central Elections Board (JCE) in, 135–6;civil society in, 132, 135; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 17, 20, 21, 22, 33, 34,82, 132–7, 177–8, 341, 369; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 8, 132–7;leverage in, 42, 50, 131, 132–7, 149, 162,373; linkage in, 47, 50, 51, 52, 85, 131,132–7, 161, 170, 352, 375; OAS role in,131, 136–7; opposition in, 132, 135–6, 348,349; organizational power in, 30, 134–7,347, 349, 350, 352, 359, 379–80; U.S. rolein, 133–7

Dominican Liberation Party. See PLDDominican Revolutionary Party. See PRDDominique, Jean, 175DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia),

111–12

double boomerang effect, 51–2DPA (Democratic Party of Albanians),

128DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, Malawi),

287DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan),

313, 315–17Draskovic, Vuk, 106, 111Druc, Mircea, 230DSS (Democratic Party of Serbia), 112DUI (Democratic Union for Integration,

Macedonia), 128Duma. See Russia, legislature inDuvalier, Jean-Claude, 172–3Dyachenko, Tatyana, 195Dzurinda, Mikulas, 52, 97

East Asia, 44, 49, 313.See alsocountries by name

Easter, Gerald, 183Eastern Europe, 81

lack of countervailing power in, 17, 41–2,309; diffusion effects across, 40, 54;economy in, 17; EU role in, 18, 42, 50,88–91, 129, 214; leverage in, 50, 53, 87–91,130, 214, 219, 360; linkage in, 23, 25, 36,44–6, 53, 70, 85–91, 130, 184–5, 207, 214,221, 352, 353; opposition in, 69, 220;organizational power in, 9, 67, 130;transnational advocacy networks in, 40;uneven playing field across, 9–10; U.S. rolein, 50. See also countries by name

EC. See European Communityeconomic control discretionary state, 70, 343;

indicators of, 378; and state/party strength,66–7. See also individual countries

economic crisis. See economic performanceeconomic inequality. See income inequalityeconomic linkage. See linkageeconomic conditionality. See conditionalityeconomic development, as alternative

explanation for regime outcomes, 24, 74–5,345–6

economic performance, as alternativeexplanation for regime outcomes, 77–8,346–7

Ecuador, 178–9Egypt, 7, 8, 16, 34, 41, 343, 350, 361elections, 3, 5–6, 7–8, 12–13, 19, 42–3,

366as alternative explanation for

democratization, 22; stolen, 42, 45, 132,136, 218, 250, 272–3, 306–7, 345, 349–50.See also countries by name

election-monitoring, 39, 48, 304






500 Index

electoral authoritarianism, 16. See alsoauthoritarianism

electoral commission, 63, 359in Armenia, 210; in Belarus, 204; in Benin,

294, 296, 303; in Cambodia, 335; inDominican Republic, 135–6; in Gabon,79–80; in Ghana, 302–3; in Guyana, 148–9;in Haiti, 174–5; in Kenya, 272, 273; inMadagascar, 279; in Malawi, 80, 284, 285,286, 287, 303; in Malaysia, 322; in Mexico,157–61; in Mozambique, 250; in Peru,164–5, 166–7, 168, 169; in Zimbabwe, 250.See also countries by name; organizationsby name

electoral democracy, 15. See also hybrid regimeelectoralism, 19, 42–3electoral revolution, 54, 205elite cohesion, 26, 67, 170, 345, 353–4, 358,

362elite defection, 26, 47, 60, 61–2, 65, 67, 68, 69,

70, 77, 339, 345, 354–5. See also countriesby name

El Salvador, 15, 32, 34Enlarged Presidential Majority (Senegal), 275EPP (European People’s Party), 118EPS (Sandinista Popular Army, Nicaragua),

139Estonia, 14, 17, 81Esquipulas II peace process, 141Ethiopia, 33, 46, 109, 343ethnic civil war, 87, 91ethnic cleavage/ties, as source of elite cohesion

26, 60, 65ethnic identity, and state cohesion 26, 60EU. See European UnionEurope, 92, 105, 113, 114, 116, 119, 120, 188,

208, 229, 236, 318integration with, 47, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 102,

118, 318, 353; linkage with, 89, 118, 352;proximity to, 85–6, 109. See also EuropeanUnion

Europe Agreement, 88–9, 92European Community, 47, 88, 108European Democratic Union, 92European Institute for the Media, 185European Parliament, 88, 94, 123European People’s Party. See EPPEuropean Union, 40, 90

and accession, 50, 90, 92, 101, 102; andconditionality, 18, 36, 39, 40, 42, 85, 90;and enlargement, 49, 83, 88–91, 353; andleverage, 41–2, 50, 89–91; and linkage, 23,43–4, 46, 50, 89–91; in Albania, 122–4; inBelarus, 210, 205; in Croatia, 48, 49,116–18; in Eastern Europe, 88–91, 129; in

former Soviet states, 185; in Georgia, 221,228; in Guyana, 149; in Macedonia, 126–7;in Malawi, 286; in Nicaragua, 145; inRomania, 49, 91, 98, 100–3; in Russia, 196;in Serbia, 49, 108, 111–113; in Slovakia,48–9, 91–2, 94–7; in Ukraine, 214, 218,219. See also countries by name

European Union of Christian Democrats, 92even playing field. See playing fieldexclusive republic. See constitutional oligarchyexecutive succession. See successionexile communities. See diasporasexternal assistance. See democratizing pressureexternal vulnerability. See leverageEZLN (Zapatista National Liberation Army),

156

Fairbanks, Charles, 226FAPSI (Federal Agency for Government

Communications and Information, Russia),188

Fatherland (Ukraine), 31, 216–17Fatherland-All Russia. See OVRFederal Agency for Government

Communications and Information(Russia). See FAPSI

Federal Border Service (Russia), 188Federal Counter-Intelligence Service (Russia).

See FSKFederal Electoral Institute (Mexico). See IFEFederal Electoral Tribunal (Mexico), 157Federal Protective Service (Russia), 188Federal Security Service (Russia). See FSBFederation Council. See Russia, legislature inFernandez, Diego, 158Fernandez, Leonel, 52, 137fiscal health, and state cohesion, 60Fish, Steven, 78, 81FJKM (Church of Jesus Christ in Madagascar),

280FL (Lavalas Family), 173flying brigades, 63For A New Georgia!, 224–5FORD (Forum for the Restoration of

Democracy, Kenya), 267–8FORD-Asili (Forum for the Restoration of

Democracy, Kenya), 268FORD-Kenya (Forum for the Restoration of

Democracy), 268Foreign Intelligence Service (Russia). See SVRformal institutions, 27, 78–81, 297, 358–60former Soviet Union, 19, 87, 129, 177, 181

countervailing power in, 131; economicfactors in, 17, 60; linkage in, 23, 25, 44, 46,82; opposition in, 31, 69; organizational






Index 501

power in, 36, 55, 57, 74, 129; post-ColdWar regimes in, 3, 4, 16, 35, 56, 82,183–235, 360; and spatial dependence ofdiffusion effects, 40, 44. See also countriesby name

Formosa Club in America, 311Formosan Association for Political Affairs,

311Formosan Christians for Self-Determination,

311Forum for the Restoration of Democracy

(Kenya). See FORDFourth Wave regime transitions, 20, 37–8, 83Fox, Vicente, 151, 160France, 280, 311, 374

as black knight, 41, 258, 261, 262–3, 264,265, 305, 307, 333, 336, 373; and politicalconditionality in Africa, 236; post-ColdWar shift in foreign policy, 17–18, 236;and post-colonial ties to Africa, 258, 273,292, 297

Freedom House, 14–15, 35, 89, 232, 255, 291Frelimo (Front for the Liberation of

Mozambique), 26, 246–51Front for the Liberation of Mozambique. See

FrelimoFru Ndi, John, 260–2FSB (Russian Federal Security Service), 188FSK (Russian Federal Counter-Intelligence

Service), 188FSLN (Sandinista National Liberation Front),

26, 82, 134, 137–45, 344, 345, 352FSN (National Salvation Front, Romania), 80,

98–99, 100, 101Fujimori, Alberto, 9, 11, 12, 14, 20, 29, 48, 63,

64, 80, 81, 161–70, 177, 358Fujimorismo, 166full authoritarianism, 6–8, 13–14, 19, 33, 365,

369. See also authoritarianismFUNCINPEC (National United Front for an

Independent, Neutral, Peaceful, andCooperative Cambodia), 31, 331–6

Gabon, 4civil society in, 31; competitive

authoritarianism in, 21, 22, 258, 263,305–6, 308, 341, 369, 370; constitution in,264; constitutional reform in, 80, 263;discretionary state economic power in,263–5; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 13, 263–5; Electoral Commissionin, 79–80; France as black knight in, 41,263, 264; leverage in, 24, 263, 373; linkagein, 45, 375; opposition in, 70, 263–5, 273,348, 349; organizational power in, 67, 237,

263–5, 266, 269, 296, 303, 347, 349, 350,379–80

Gabonese Democratic Party. See PDGGachechiladze, Levan, 227Gaidar, Yegor, 192, 194Gambia, 20, 32Gamsakhurdia, Zviad, 82, 220–3, 228,

355Garrison Command (Taiwan), 312Gazprom, 197–8GDF (Guyana Defense Forces), 146, 147Geddes, Barbara, 26, 61, 62General Directorate of State Security

(Nicaragua), 139Georgia, 4, 42, 185

civil society in, 225, 228; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 21, 22, 33, 82, 89, 183,213, 220, 222–8, 369, 370; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 223–8; EUrole in, 221, 228; leverage in, 181, 185–6,221, 226, 233, 340, 373; linkage in, 24, 51,52, 221, 375; opposition in, 183–6, 205,222–6, 228, 233–4, 348, 349, 355;organizational power in, 25, 30, 55, 57, 59,60, 65, 66, 68, 69, 70, 73, 77, 83, 181, 186,200, 213, 220–8, 340, 345, 349, 350, 354,357, 379–80; Ossetia and Abkhazia,conflict in, 221–2; Rose Revolution in, 54,212, 225–6; U.S. role in, 226, 228

Georgievski, Ljubco, 127Germany, 34, 93, 107, 138, 150, 311, 374Ghana, 4, 24, 78, 340

civil society in, 301, 304; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 14, 21, 22, 261, 301–5,305–8, 341, 343, 369; constitution in,301–303; constitutional reform in, 80,301–2; discretionary state economic powerin, 302, 304; elections, civil liberties andplaying field in, 10, 30, 301–5; ElectoralCommission in, 302–3; Human RightsCommission in, 302; leverage in, 343, 300,373; linkage in, 299, 300, 305, 343, 375;Media Commission in, 302; opposition in,69, 299, 301, 304, 351, 356, 357;organizational power in, 30, 237, 299–305,343, 356, 357, 379–80; Supreme Court in,302–3

Githongo, John, 272Glasnost Defense Fund, 199Gligorov, Kiro, 125–6Gongadze, Georgii, 217Good, Kenneth, 256Gorbachev, Mikhail, 19, 80, 188, 190Gore, Al, 217, 325Grachev, Pavel, 193






502 Index

Greater Romania Party. See PRMGreece, 88, 120, 122, 124, 374Greene, Kenneth, 160Grinev, Vladimir, 215Gruevski, Nikola, 127Guatemala, 14, 32, 42, 51Gubbay, Anthony, 243Guebuza, Armando, 251Gusinsky, Vladimir, 191, 194, 198Guyana, 4, 17, 33, 78, 172, 178

competitive authoritarianism in, 12, 17, 21,22, 76, 145–9, 177–8, 341, 369;constitutional reform in, 80; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 10, 28;Electoral Commission in, 148–9; ethnicdivisions within, 85, 145–7, 149; EU rolein, 149; leverage in, 104, 131–2, 145–9,162, 373; linkage in, 23, 85, 104, 131–2,145–9, 170, 375; OAS role in, 131, 149;opposition in, 147–9; organizational powerin, 31, 60, 62, 65, 66, 85, 146–9, 347, 348,354, 379–80; U.S. role in, 145–9

Guyana Defense Forces. See GDF

Haiti, 4, 17, 130, 178, 308civil society in, 174; competitive

authoritarianism in, 14, 21, 22, 76, 177–8,341, 370; constitution in, 79; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 28, 30, 172–7;leverage in, 42, 132, 171, 176, 373; linkagein, 44, 46, 85, 132, 161, 170–4, 375; OASrole in, 131, 175–6; opposition in, 69, 174,175, 349; organizational power in, 29, 30,55, 57, 59, 60, 61, 68, 73, 77, 170, 172–7,347, 350, 354, 357, 379–80; ProvisionalElectoral Council (CEP) in, 174–5; UNrole in, 177; U.S. role in, 39, 171–7

Haitian National Police. See HNPHale, Henry, 67Hanchar, Victor, 204–5hard-door transitions. See transitions, hard-doorHDZ (Croatian Democratic Union), 49, 81–2,

113–18hegemonic regime, 7, 29, 360. See also full

authoritarianismHelms, Jesse, 167Helsinki Agreement, 89, 119Herbst, Jeffrey, 55Heritage Foundation Index of Economic

Freedom, 76High Court of Malawi, 285, 286High State Authority. See Madagascar,

legislature inHNP (Haitian National Police), 173Holmes, Stephen, 56

Honduras, 32, 131, 138, 142, 172,179

Hong, Victor Wing, 281Houngbedji, Adrien, 295–6House of Israel, 147Howard, Marc, 54Hoxha, Enver, 119–21Hoyte, Desmond, 148–9HSP (Croatian Party of Rights), 118Humala, Ollanta, 170human rights violations. See civil libertiesHungary, 17, 81, 94, 68Hun Sen, 31, 82, 330, 332–3, 335–6, 358Huntington, Samuel, 56hybrid regimes, 4, 26–7, 85

and democratization, 3–4; and institutionaldesign, 78; and party behavior, 29–32; assubtype of democracy/authoritarianism,14–16; trajectories of, 4, 13–16. See alsocompetitive authoritarianism

HZDS (Movement for a Democratic Slovakia),91–7

ideologyas source of elite cohesion, 65, 361; as source

of party cohesion, 65, 378; as source ofstate cohesion, 61, 377. See also countriesby name

IFE (Federal Electoral Institute, Mexico),157–61

illiberal democracy, 15. See also hybrid regimeI Love Madagascar, 279IMF (International Monetary Fund)

and Belarus, 207; and Cambodia, 334; andCameroon, 260; and domestic technocrats,47; and Haiti, 176; and Malaysia, 324, 325,326; and Peru, 163; and Russia, 195; andSerbia, 107; and Zambia, 289, 290

immigration. See migrationincome inequality, as alternative explanation for

regime outcomes, 75–7incumbent capacity, 54–6, 65. See also

organizational powerincumbent weakness, and regime transition,

69–70Independent Democratic Serbian Party, 118India, 15, 321informal institutions, 27–8, 45, 174, 193, 217information linkage. See communication ties,

linkageINGOs (international nongovernmental

organizations), 18, 45–8, 72. See alsocountries by name

institutional design, as alternative explanationfor regime outcomes, 78–81, 83, 183






Index 503

Institutional Revolutionary Party (Mexico). SeePRI

institutions. See informal institutions; formalinstitutions

Inter-American Human Rights Court, 167intergovernmental linkage. See linkageInternal Macedonian Revolutionary

Organization. See VMRO-DPMNEInternal Security Act (Malaysia). See ISAInternational Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia,

90, 108, 116international factors. See democratizing

pressure, linkageInternational Monetary Fund. See IMFinternational nongovernmental organizations.

See INGOsinternational organizations. See IOsinternational pressure. See democratizing

pressureInternet

and Africa, 237; and linkage, 38, 44, 374–5;and Malaysia, 319, 328; and Taiwan, 311;and transnational civil society, 18; andZapatistas in Mexico, 156

Inter-Party Parliamentary Group (Kenya). SeeIPPG

IOs (international organizations), 18, 39, 47,185, 342, 353. See also countries by name,organizations by name

Ioseliani, Jaba, 222–3IPPG (Inter-Party Parliamentary Group,

Kenya), 269Iran, 14, 32, 206, 353ISA (Internal Securities Act, Malaysia), 321,

325Islamic community, 50Islamic Party of Malaysia. See PASItaly, 46, 119, 120, 122, 374Ivanov, Gjorge, 128Ivcher, Baruch, 164, 167

Jagan, Cheddi, 149Japan, 138, 150, 169, 311, 318, 321, 362

as black knight, 41, 373, 309, 326, 333, 334,335, 373

Jarquın, Agustın, 144JCE (Central Elections Board, Dominican

Republic), 135–6Jiu Valley, 100Joint Inter-Parliamentary Committee, 94Jordan, 29, 32judiciary. See supreme courts; constitutional

courts; countries by nameJustice and Truth Alliance (Romania),

103

Ka, Djibo, 275Kampuchean People’s Revolutionary Party, 329KANU (Kenya African National Union), 31,

62, 64, 70, 263, 265–71, 273, 275, 276, 307,348, 355

Karabakh Committee, 208Kasparov, Garry, 200Kasyanov, Mikhail, 199, 200Kaunda, Kenneth, 82, 268, 288–90Kazakhstan, 4, 7, 15, 16, 33, 34, 80, 343, 361Kebich, Viacheslau, 82, 201, 202, 203, 233,

342Keıta, Ibrahim Boubacar, 298–9Kenya, 4, 42

civil society in, 266, 267, 269; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 12, 20, 21, 22, 34,261, 265–73, 305–8, 370; constitutionalreform in, 80, 270, 272; ConstitutionalReview Commission in, 269; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 13, 20,28, 29, 30, 266–73; Electoral Commission,272, 273; leverage in, 42, 228, 265, 266,269, 273, 373; linkage in, 51, 266, 375;opposition in, 70, 266–73, 348, 349, 355;organizational power in, 25, 26, 31, 57, 62,64, 65, 66, 70, 237, 246, 251, 263, 265–73,276, 303, 345, 349, 350, 353, 354, 379–80;U.S. role in, 267

Kenya African National Union. See KANUKenya Human Rights Commission, 269Kenyatta, Jomo, 266–7, 270Kenyatta, Uhuru, 270–1Kepala 10 (Malaysia), 320Kerekou, Mathieu, 82, 291–3, 295–6KGB (Committee for State Security)

and Armenia, 208; and Belarus, 202, 203; andMoldova, 229; and Russia, 188, 190; andUkraine, 214–15

Khama, Ian, 258Khama, Seretse, 255–6Khasbulatov, Ruslan, 191–3Khmer National Party (Cambodia). See KNPKhmer Rouge, 329–31Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 9, 194, 198–9Kibaki, Mwai, 268–73, 355Kikwete, Jakaya, 254Kim, Il Sung, 362Kitovani, Tengiz, 222–3Kivuitu, Samuel, 273KMT (Kuomintang), 11, 49, 62, 82, 309–18,

337, 338KNP (Khmer National Party, Cambodia), 333Kocharian, Robert, 207–8, 210–13Kohl, Helmut, 193Koma, Kenneth, 257–8






504 Index

Konare, Alpha Oumar, 298Kosovo, 46, 109–10, 122, 124, 366Kostikov, Viacheslav, 187Kostunica, Vojislav, 31, 110, 111–13Kovac, Michal, 93, 95KPRF (Communist Party of the Russian

Federation), 194, 196, 198Kravchuk, Leonid, 64, 68, 83, 214–16, 233,

340Kuchma, Leonid, 9, 11, 29, 31, 193, 214–19,

220, 233, 340Kufuor, John, 304–3Kung Fu self-defense societies (Madagascar),

277Kuntz, Philipp, 349Kuomintang (Taiwan). See KMTKuwait, 32, 41Kyrgyzstan, 32, 54, 55, 205, 245, 343

Lahiniriko, Jean, 281Lancaster House Agreement (1979), 240Laos, 361Latin America, 35, 40, 162

external assistance in, 236; linkage, 86, 130–1;post-Cold War international environmentin, 24, 152; transnational advocacynetworks in, 40; uneven playing field in, 9.See also countries by name

Latvia, 14, 15, 17, 81Lavalas Family (Haiti). See FLLavalas movement, 173–5, 177Lavalas Political Organization (Haiti).

See OPLLaw and Order (Maintenance) Act, Zimbabwe,

240, 243Lazarenko, Pavlo, 9LDP (Liberal Democratic Party, Kenya), 270,

272leadership, role of, 81–3League of Communists of Macedonia, 125League of Communists of Serbia, 62, 105–6Lebanon, 32Lee, Teng-hui, 309, 311, 314legal repression, 9, 28. See also countries by

namelegislature, 20, 30, 56, 63–5, 78, 80

and control of governing party, 63–4. See alsocountries by name

Leninism, 17, 69, 87, 277, 292, 312, 313,361

Let’s Go Neighbor (Peru), 163level electoral field. See playing fieldleverage, 41, 42

black knights and, 41–2; definition of, 24–5,40–3; high leverage, 24, 38, 71–2, 85–6;

inter-regional variation in, 360–4; lowleverage, 24, 38, 71–2; limits oneffectiveness of, 42–3; measurement of,372–3; variation with linkage, 50–4. See alsocountries by name

Levitsky, Steven, 13–14Lexa, Ivan, 93Li, Yuan-Zu, 311Liberal Democratic Party (Kenya). See LDPLiberal International, 92, 94, 95Liberation Front of Mozambique. See FrelimoLiberia, 17, 32Lien, Chan, 311, 317Lilic, Zoran, 108, 110Lin, Yang-kang, 316Lindberg, Staffan, 22linkage, 44, 83

and civil society, 44; cluster effects of, 50;definition of, 23, 25, 43–52;democratization and, 45–54; and diasporas,45–6; and diffusion, 44–5; and domesticpreferences, 47–8; high linkage, 5, 23, 38,48, 51–2, 70–1, 85–6, 181; inter-regionalvariation across, 36, 85–6, 360–4; lowlinkage, 5, 23, 38, 51–2, 71, 85–6, 181;measurement of, 374–5; mediation ofeconomic growth, 77–8; non-Westernlinkage, 50; variation with leverage, 50–4.See also countries by name

Linz, Juan, 15, 78Lithuania, 17, 81, 192Liu, Henry, 314Look East Policy (Malaysia), 318Lucinschi, Petru, 228, 230–1Lukashenka, Alyaksandr, 12, 79, 80, 82, 97, 183,

186, 201–7, 233, 342, 343Luzhkov, Iurii, 195Lytvyn, Volodymyr, 219

Ma, Ying-jeou, 311Macedonia, 4, 33

competitive authoritarianism in, 21, 22, 87,125, 128–9, 341, 370; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 125–8; ethnicconflict in, 85, 125, 126–7; EU role in,126–7; leverage in, 124–7, 373; linkage in,23, 47, 91, 124–7, 375; NATO role in,126–7; organizational power in, 59, 125,347, 379–80; UN role in, 125–6

Machel, Samora, 248Madagascar, 4, 17

civil society in, 278; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 14, 20, 21, 22, 278–82,305–8, 341, 370; constitution in, 79;Constitutional Court in, 279;






Index 505

constitutional reform in, 80, 278, 279;elections, civil liberties and playing field in,13, 278–82; legislature in, 63; leverage in,181, 276, 277, 340, 373; linkage in, 51, 276,277, 352, 375; National ElectionCommission, 279; opposition in, 69, 277,278–82, 348, 349, 355, 358; organizationalpower in, 29, 30, 57, 60, 68, 69, 77, 181,237, 250, 267, 276–82, 340, 345, 347, 349,350, 354, 357, 379–80

Magaloni, Beatriz, 26, 61, 160Mahathir, Mohammad, 9, 12, 79, 314, 322–8,

337, 345Makhumula, James, 286Makoni, Simba, 62, 245, 246, 345Malashenko, Igor, 194Malawi, 4, 329

civil society in, 31, 283; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 12, 14, 21, 22, 35, 82,282–7, 305–8, 341, 370; constitution in,285; constitutional reform in, 80;discretionary state economic power in,285; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 9, 11, 13, 28, 29, 30, 282–7;Electoral Commission in, 80, 284, 285,286, 287, 303; EU role in, 286; High Courtin, 285, 286; leverage in, 42, 50, 228, 276,282, 283, 287, 373; linkage in, 24, 50, 51,276, 282, 352, 375; opposition in, 70,283–7, 355, 358; organizational power in,26, 29, 60, 68, 69, 70, 73, 77, 237, 250, 251,267, 276, 282–7, 347, 353, 354, 379–80;U.S. role in, 286

Malawi Congress Party. See MCPMalawi Young Pioneers. See MYPMalay Royal Regiment, 320Malaysia, 3, 4, 78, 346

civil society in, 323; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 16, 17, 20, 21, 22,33, 76, 309, 320–8, 337–8, 341, 370, 371;constitution in, 79; discretionary stateeconomic power, 321–2; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 9, 10, 11, 12,28, 58, 321–8; Electoral Commission in,322; ethnic cleavages in, 319–20, 322, 354;leverage in, 318, 326, 328, 373; linkage in,44, 48, 50, 318–19, 326, 328, 344, 375; andMuslim world, 319; opposition in, 314,318, 322–8, 348, 349, 351, 356;organizational power in, 23, 31, 55, 59, 60,62, 64, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73, 83, 319–28, 348,350, 356, 379–80; Supreme Court in, 322,323; U.S. role in, 324–7

Malaysian Chinese Association. See MCAMalaysian Indian Congress. See MIC

Malaysian Islamic Youth Movement. SeeABIM

Malewezi, Justin, 286Mali, 4, 78

competitive authoritarianism in, 21, 22,297–9, 305–8, 340, 341, 370;Constitutional Court in, 298; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 30;linkage in, 52, 276, 297, 340, 375; leveragein, 24, 276, 297–8, 340, 373; opposition in,297–8, 355; organizational power in, 65,66, 71, 237, 267, 276, 297–9, 340, 379–80

managed democracy, 15. See also hybrid regimemanaged pluralism, 15. See also hybrid regimeMann, Michael, 58Manukian, Vazgen, 209–10Manus, Leon, 175Marxism 147, 292, 293Masire, Quett, 256, 258mass protest

and authoritarian instability, 348–9; anddemocratization, 69; and economic crisis,77; and opposition, 25, 30, 32, 54; andorganizational power, 55–8, 69–70, 77,308, 345, 348–9, 354–5, 358; and stolenelections, 349; in Africa, 236, 258; inArmenia, 55, 184, 208, 209–10, 211, 212,213; in Belarus, 205; in Benin, 293; inCambodia, 335; in Cameroon, 260, 307; inChina, 362; in Croatia, 115; in theDominican Republic, 135; in the formerSoviet Union, 184, 233; in Gabon, 263,264; in Georgia, 222, 225, 227; in Guyana,148; in Haiti, 175–6; in Kenya, 267, 269,273; in Madagascar, 276–8, 280, 281–2,345; in Malawi, 283; in Malaysia, 323,324–5, 327; in Mali, 297; in Mexico, 153,157; in Moldova, 184; in Peru, 168; inSenegal, 274; in Serbia, 107, 108, 111; inTaiwan, 314, 316; in Tanzania, 253–4; inUkraine, 216, 217, 218–219; in Zambia,288, 291; in Zimbabwe, 241, 242, 245

Matiba, Kenneth, 267–8Matos Berrido, Leonardo, 136Mazoka, Anderson, 291Mba Abessole, Paul, 264–5MCA (Malaysian Chinese Association), 320MCP (Malawi Congress Party), 282, 283,

284–5, 287MDC (Movement for Democratic Change,

Zimbabwe), 241–7Meciar, Vladimır, 33, 46, 49, 82, 90–7, 129,

351, 352medium-n analysis, 34–5Medvedchuk, Viktor, 216






506 Index

Medvedev, Dmitri, 199–200Meidani, Rexhep, 122Mejıa, Hipolito, 137Mesic, Stjepan, 117Mexico, 3, 4, 78, 178, 305

civil society in, 151, 155, 159; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 14, 16, 21, 22,149–61, 177–8, 341, 370; constitution in,79; discretionary state economic power in,153–4; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 8, 10, 11, 28, 35, 82, 149, 153–61;electoral reform in, 157; Federal ElectoralInstitute (IFE), 157–61; Federal ElectoralTribunal, 157; ideology/past violentconflict, role in, 152–3; leverage in, 53, 83,131, 132, 149–50, 310, 373; linkage in, 45,47, 53, 71, 73, 78, 83, 85, 130, 132, 149–61,162, 310, 344, 353, 375; OAS role in, 131;opposition in, 69, 153, 159–60, 316, 318,349, 351, 356, 357; organizational powerin, 56, 62, 165, 85, 130, 152–61, 299, 303,304, 328, 343, 350, 356, 357, 379–80;Supreme Court in, 79; U.S. role in,149–51, 154–9; Zapatista uprising in,156–7, 158

Mexico City, 1968 repression in, 57MFN (Most Favored Nation), 101, 314MIC (Malaysian Indian Congress), 320Middle East, the, 19, 35, 40, 57, 319, 360, 361migration

to West, from former Soviet Union, 185; toWest, from Eastern Europe, 185; to West,from the Americas, 185

military. See security forcesmilitary conflict. See warmilitary coup. See coupmilitary rule, 3, 14, 15, 21, 32Milosevic, Slobodan, 10, 29, 31, 48, 62, 82, 90,

104–113, 129, 242, 244, 351Milutinovic, Milan, 109Ministry of Security, Russia, 188Mkapa, Benjamin William, 253–4Mkhedrioni, 222MMD (Movement for Multiparty Democracy,

Zambia), 288–91modernization. See economic developmentMogae, Festus, 255, 258Moi, Daniel arap, 31, 266–72, 273, 307Moisiu, Alfred, 123Moldova, 4, 185

competitive authoritarianism in, 21, 22,183–6, 213, 228–32, 233–4, 341, 370, 371;Constitutional Court in, 359;constitutional reform in, 359; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 90,

230–2; electoral authorities in, 232;leverage in, 181, 185–6, 228, 233, 373;linkage in, 51, 228, 375; organizationalpower in, 83, 181, 186, 228–32, 347, 357,379–80; opposition in, 230–1, 355;Transnistria conflict in, 229

Moldovan Popular Front, 229–30Monarchy, 6, 7. See also full authoritarianismMondlane, Eduardo, 248Mongolia, 34, 81Montesinos, Vladimiro 161–4, 167, 169Morales, Evo, 178, 179Morocco, 32Moroz, Oleksandr, 31, 217Most Favored Nation trade status. See MFNMount Kenya Mafia, 272Mourides, 274Moustarchidine movement (Senegal), 275Movement for Democratic Change

(Zimbabwe). See MDCMovement for a Democratic and Prosperous

Moldova. See PMDPMovement for a Democratic Slovakia. See

HZDSMovement for Freedom and Justice (Ghana),

301Movement for Multiparty Democracy

(Zambia). See MMDMovement for Social Justice (Malaysia). See AdilMozambique, 4, 17, 42

civil war in, 247–9; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 14, 21, 22, 76, 246–51,305–8, 341, 344, 370, 371; constitution in,248; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 13, 246, 249–51; ideology/pastviolent conflict, role in, 201, 238, 248, 250,252, 255, 288, 354; leverage in, 42, 246,248–9, 254, 373; linkage in, 86, 246, 344,375; National Elections Commission in,250; opposition in, 249–51; organizationalpower in, 26, 60, 61, 62, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68,74, 237, 247–51, 273, 347, 348, 379–80;Technical Secretariat for ElectionAdministration in, 250; UN role in, 247,249

Mozambican National Resistance. See RenamoMpinganjira, Brown, 286Mrema, Augustine, 62, 253, 254Msosa, Anastazia, 80, 284, 285Mugabe, Robert, 20, 77, 82, 238, 241–6multilateral conditionality. See conditionalitymultilateral organizations, 45, 51, 70. See also

organizations by nameMuluzi, Bakili, 9, 11, 29, 80, 82, 284–7, 359Muslim Brotherhood, 34






Index 507

Musyoka, Kalonzo, 270–1Mutharika, Bingu wa, 9, 286–7Muzorewa, Abel, 241Mwanawasa, Levy, 290–1Mwinyi, Ali Hassan, 252, 254MYP (Malawi Young Pioneers), 282, 284

NAC (National Affairs Conference, Taiwan),315

NAFTA (North American Free TradeAgreement), 150, 154–7, 159, 353

Nagorno-Karabakh, 208–10, 345Najib, Razak, 328Namibia, 34, 80Nano, Fatos, 29, 121–2NARC (National Alliance Rainbow Coalition,

Kenya), 270–2, 348Nastase, Adrian, 103National Accord (Mexico), 159–60National Action Party (Mexico). See PANNational Affairs Conference (Taiwan). See

NACNational Alliance Rainbow Coalition (Kenya).

See NARCNational Assembly of Benin. See Benin,

legislature inNational Assembly of Cambodia. See

Cambodia, legislature inNational Assembly of the Republic of China.

See Taiwan, legislature inNational Conference

in Benin, 293; in Cameroon, 260; in Gabon,263

National Constitutional Assembly (Zimbabwe).See NCA

National Convention Executive Council(Kenya). See NCEC

National Council of Businessmen (DominicanRepublic), 137

National Democratic Alliance (Malawi). SeeNDA

National Democratic Congress (Ghana). SeeNDC

National Democratic Institute. See NDINational Democratic Union (Armenia), 210National Development Party (Kenya). See NDPNational Dialogue (Nicaragua), 141–2National Election Commission (Madagascar),

279–80National Elections Board (Peru), 164–5, 166–7,

168, 169National Elections Commission (Mozambique),

250National Endowment for Democracy. See

NED

National Front for Change and Democracy(Haiti), 173

National Front for the Defense of theRevolution (Madagascar), 278

nationalism, and state cohesion, 61National Justice Party (Malaysia), 326–7National Movement (Georgia), 225–6, 227National Observatory of Elections (Cameroon),

262National Operations Council (Malaysia), 320National Opposition Union (Nicaragua). See

UNONational Reconciliation Committee

(Madagascar). See CRNNational Salvation Front (Romania). See FSNNational Security Act (Botswana), 256National Security Bureau (Taiwan), 312National Union for Democracy and Progress

(Cameroon). See UNDPNational United Front (Cambodia). See NUFNational United Front for an Independent,

Neutral, Peaceful, and CooperativeCambodia. See FUNCINPEC

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization),46, 89. See also countries by name

NCA (National Constitutional Assembly,Zimbabwe), 241–2, 245

NCEC (National Convention ExecutiveCouncil, Kenya), 269

Ncube, Pius, 245NDA (National Democratic Alliance, Malawi),

286NDC (National Democratic Congress, Ghana),

300, 302–5NDI (National Democratic Institute), 117, 136NDP (National Development Party, Kenya),

31, 270NED (National Endowment for Democracy),

142, 151NEP (New Economic Policy, Malaysia), 321Nepal, 14, 32New Economic Policy (Malaysia). See NEPnew information technologies, 18, 25. See also

InternetNew Majority (Peru), 64, 163New Party (Taiwan), 316New Patriotic Party (Ghana). See NPPNew Rights Party (Georgia), 224–5NGOs (nongovernmental organizations), 39,

40, 44–5, 52, 56, 73in Belarus, 205; in Benin, 295; in Cambodia,

329; in Croatia, 117; in Eastern Europe,88–90; and EU, 353; in former SovietUnion, 185; in Ghana, 304; in Haiti, 174;in Kenya, 269; in Malaysia, 323; in






508 Index

NGOs (cont.)Mexico,151, 155, 159; in Peru, 342; inRomania, 102; in Russia, 199; in Serbia,109, 112; in Zimbabwe, 238, 240. See alsocivil society

Niasse, Moustapha, 275Nicaragua, 4, 17, 78, 172, 329, 356

civil society in, 139, 141; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 12, 14, 21, 22, 76,177–9, 248, 341, 370, 371; constitution in,144, 145; discretionary state economicpower in, 140; elections, civil liberties andplaying field in, 28, 31, 58, 137–45; EUrole in, 145; ideology/past violent conflict,role in, 139–40, 201, 354; leverage in, 42,83, 104, 131–2, 137–8, 141, 149, 162, 373;linkage in, 49, 51, 52, 73, 83, 104, 131–2,137–45, 148, 170, 179, 326, 344, 352, 354,375; OAS role in, 131, 141; opposition in,138, 140–1; organizational power in, 26,57, 59, 60, 61, 62, 64, 65, 66, 68, 74, 77, 85,138–40, 345, 346, 347, 351, 379–80;Supreme Court in, 144–5; UN role in, 141;U.S. role in, 138–45

Nicaraguan Democratic Coordinator. See CDNNiger, 32, 171, 80Nigeria, 3, 4, 16, 32Nikolic, Tomislav, 113Nkruhamism, 301noncompetitive authoritarianism. See full

authoritarianism.nongovernmental organizations. See NGOsnon-Western linkage. See linkage, non-WesternNorth Africa, 360, 361North America, 114, 138, 150, 172North American Free Trade Agreement. See

NAFTANorth Atlantic Treaty Organization. See

NATONorth Korea, 29, 73, 206, 239, 361, 362, 363NPP (New Patriotic Party, Ghana), 301–2,

304–5, 343NUF (National United Front, Cambodia), 333Nyerere, Julius, 16, 238, 252

OAS (Organization of American States), 18in Dominican Republic, 131, 136–7; in

Guyana, 131, 149; in Haiti, 131, 175–6; inMexico, 131; in Nicaragua, 131, 141; inPeru, 131, 163–5, 168–9

Odhiambo-Mbai, Crispin, 272Odinga, Oginga, 267–8Odinga, Raila, 31, 70, 270–3ODM (Orange Democratic Movement,

Kenya), 272–3

O’Donnell, Guillermo, 56, 81Ohrid Framework Agreement, 126oil, 41, 66, 178–9, 361, 187, 190, 197–8, 201,

219, 258, 263–5, 297, 361, 372–3Okruashvili, Irakli, 227Onn, Jafar Datuk, 320Ooi, Su-Mei, 312Open Society Foundation, 92, 96Open Terms Bill (Malawi), 286Operation Bwezani (Malawi), 282Operation Ghost Town (Cameroon), 260Operation Lallang (Malaysia), 319, 323Operation Murambatsvina (Zimbabwe), 245Operation Where Did You Put Your Vote?

(Zimbabwe), 246OPL (Lavalas Political Organization, Haiti),

173opposition

party strategy, 30–2; strength of, 68–70Orange Democratic Movement (Kenya). See

ODMOrange Revolution, 31, 70, 185, 217–19,

348organizational power, 72, 41, 73–4, 77

and authoritarianism, 54–61, 68, 181;definition of, 23; and incumbents, 25,54–68, 70–4, 83; measurement of, 73,376–80; and regime outcomes, 72; vs.Western leverage, 41. See also countries byname

Organization for Security and Cooperation inEurope. See OSCE

Organization of American States. See OASOrganization of the Islamic Conference, 319organized labor, 25, 54, 135Ortega, Daniel, 142–5, 178, 351Ortega, Humberto, 139OSCE (Organization for Security and

Cooperation in Europe)and Albania, 122, 123; and Armenia, 185; and

Azerbaijan, 185; and Belarus, 205; andCroatia, 116; and Eastern Europe, 89; andformer Soviet Union, 185; and Georgia,226, 227; and Macedonia, 125; andMoldova, 185; and Russia, 185; and Serbia,112; and Slovakia, 94; and Ukraine, 220

Ossetia, 221, 222Ostankino television station, 192Our Home is Russia, 187, 194Our Ukraine bloc, 217–18OVR (Fatherland-All Russia), 195–7

Pact for Democracy (Dominican Republic),136–7

Pakatan Rakyat (Malaysia), 328






Index 509

Pakistan, 14, 32, 41PAN (National Action Party, Mexico), 151,

153–4, 157–60Panama, 39Paniagua, Valentin, 169Panic, Milan, 108Paraguay, 42paramilitary organizations, 58–9, 108, 125

in Armenia, 202, 208–9, 210; in Cambodia,332; in Georgia, 222; in Ghana, 302; inHaiti, 172; in Kenya, 268; in Malawi, 282;in Malaysia, 319; in Serbia, 105; inZimbabwe, 239, 243, 244

parchment rules, 79, 359Paris Accord (1991), 331parliament. See legislatureparliamentary regime, 78, 81, 320, 346partial democracies, 4. See also hybrid regimeparties

behavior under competitive authoritarianism,29–32, 56; and elite conflict, 61–2; asfacilitating legislative control, 63–4;international party networks, 48; andlegislative weakness, 68; and managementof intra-elite conflict, 62; and succession,64. See also by party name; See also partystrength

partly free regime, 14–15. See also FreedomHouse

Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, 89,185

Partnership for Peace, in Croatia, 118party of barons. See party of notablesParty of Civic Understanding (Slovakia). See

SOPParty of Democratic Socialists (Romania). See

PDSRParty of National Unity (Kenya). See PNUparty of notables

in Benin, 293–5; in Botswana, 255; in Kenya,70, 267, 270–1, 272; in Madagascar, 277; inMalawi, 285; in Mali, 298; in Senegal,274–5

Party of Regions (Ukraine), 216Party of Russian Unity and Concord. See PRESParty of the Democratic Left (Slovakia), 96Party of the Democratic Revolution (Mexico).

See PRDparty organization, and competitive

authoritarianism, 61–6party strength

and authoritarian stability/instability, 23, 25,55, 61–6, 71–2, 339, 345; party cohesion,65, 353–4; party scope, 64; measurementof, 65–6, 73, 377–8; and patronage, 65; and

state coercive capacity, 67–8. See also bycountry name; party name

party substitutes, 67–8party weakness, and elite conflict, 68PAS (Islamic Party of Malaysia), 319, 322, 323,

325–8Patarkatsishvili, Badri, 227Patiashvili, Jumber, 223–4patronage

and economic performance, 72, 77; asinformal institution, 28; and partycohesion, 26, 61, 65, 77, 345, 347, 353–4;opposition access to, 31; and unevenplaying field, 6. See also proxy ownership

patronage-based machine, 72, 305, 306in Benin, 294; in Botswana, 255, 257, 258; in

Cambodia, 330; in Cameroon, 259; in theDominican Republic, 134; in Gabon, 263;in Georgia, 221; in Kenya, 266–7; inMadagascar, 277; in Malawi, 285–6; inMalaysia, 320; in Russia, 189, 200–201; inSenegal, 273–6, 307; in Taiwan, 313; inZambia, 288, 289–1, 307

patronage-based regime. See patronage-basedmachine

PCRM (Communist Party of Moldova), 230–2,358

PD (Democratic Party of Albania), 120–23PDG (Gabonese Democratic Party), 263–5PDS (Senegalese Democratic Party), 31, 275–6PDSR (Party of Democratic Socialists,

Romania), 99, 103Pena Gomez, Jose Francisco, 136–7Peng, Ming-min, 317People’s Justice Party (Malaysia), 326, 328People’s National Congress (Guyana). See PNCPeople’s Party of Armenia, 211People’s Party of the Revolution (Benin). See

PRPBPerez de Cuellar, Javier, 162, 166Perisic, Momcilo, 110Peron, Juan, 17Persian Gulf War, 264Peru, 4, 42, 78, 178

civil society in, 161–2, 165; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 14, 20, 21, 22, 161,163–70, 177–8, 341, 370; constitution in,79, 80–1, 163–4; constitutional reform in,80, 164; Constitutional Tribunal in, 20, 80,166–7; discretionary state economic powerin, 165; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 9–12, 28, 29, 30, 58, 162–70;legislature in, 81, 163, 166, 169; leveragein, 132, 161–3, 167–69, 373; linkage in, 44,48, 51, 52, 85, 132, 161–2, 170, 342, 375;






510 Index

Peru (cont.)National Elections Board in, 164–5, 166–7,168, 169; OAS in, 131, 163–5, 168–9;opposition in, 161–2, 168, 348, 349;organizational power in, 29, 63, 64, 66, 67,68, 161–70, 342, 379–80; Shining Pathinsurgency in, 162, 163, 165–6; SupremeCourt in, 164; U.S. role in, 161–3, 165,167, 169

Peru 2000, 163, 168, 169Peruvian National Intelligence Service. See SINPHARE program, 89, 116, 292, 126Philippines, 15, 33, 60, 69Pinchuk, Viktor, 216playing field

access to media and, 10–11; biased refereesand, 12; and definition of democracy, 6;level, 6–7, 19, 21, 32, 42, 43, 48–9; uneven,9–12; 33; scoring of, 368. See also countriesby name

PLC (Constitutional Liberal Party, Nicaragua),144

PLD (Dominican Liberation Party), 135,137

Plyushch, Ivan, 215PMDP (Movement for a Democratic and

Prosperous Moldova), 231PNC (People’s National Congress, Guyana),

145–9PNDC (Provisional National Defense Council,

Ghana), 301PNU (Party of National Unity, Kenya), 272Pognon, Elizabeth, 295Poland, 17, 56, 69, 81, 94police. See security forces; organization by namepolitical conditionality. See conditionalitypolitical parties. See partiesPolitkovskaia, Anna, 199Polity IV, 35Popescu-Tariceanu, Calin, 103PORA! Youth movement, 220Poroshenko, Petro, 217, 219Portugal, 88, 374post-Cold War era, 3–5, 7, 17, 18, 26, 78, 60,

131and black knights, 41–2; and competitive

authoritarianism, 13–14, 17, 27–32, 37–8,57, 74, 183–6, 339, 360–4; andinternational dimension ofdemocratization, 38, 40, 236; andinternational environment, 27, 76, 193,344; and leverage, 42–3, 50; and linkage,43–5, 50; post-Cold War internationalenvironment, 16–20, 24, 27; and regimeoutcomes, 3–5, 20–7, 34, 37, 78, 82, 83,

179, 358; and shifts in Western foreignpolicy, 17–18, 236

post-totalitarianism, 15. See alsoauthoritarianism

PPP (Progressive People’s Party, Guyana),145–7, 149

PRD (Dominican Revolutionary Party), 134–7PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution,

Mexico), 153, 154, 157, 159PRES (Party of Russian Unity and Concord),

187, 193–4Presidential Bloc (Mali), 299presidentialism, 78, 80, 81, 130, 177, 183, 203,

233, 346, 350, 360, 368presidential succession. See successionpresidential term limits. See term limitsPreval, Rene, 170, 174–5, 177Primakov, Evgenii, 195–6Printing Presses and Publications Act

(Malaysia), 321PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), 10, 11,

14, 49, 62, 63, 79, 82, 132, 134, 149–61,178, 303, 343, 344–5

Private Voluntary Organizations Act(Zimbabwe), 240

PRM (Greater Romania Party), 103Prodi, Romano, 97Progressive People’s Party (Guyana).

See PPPProvisional National Defense Council (Ghana).

See PNDCProvisional Electoral Council (Haiti). See CEPproxy ownership 6, 11, 28, 106. See also

patronagePRPB (People’s Party of the Revolution,

Benin), 292–3PRSC (Social Christian Reformist Party,

Dominican Republic), 134–5PS (Socialist Party of Albania), 120–23PS (Socialist Party of Senegal), 265, 274–6PSD (Social Democratic Party, Romania), 99Public Order and Security Act (Zimbabwe), 243Pustovoitenko, Valerii, 217Putin, Vladimir, 6, 9, 14, 36, 57, 68, 82, 186,

189–90, 196–201, 233, 344, 349, 358, 359

quasi-democracy, 15. See also hybrid regime

Racan, Ivica, 117Radio Free Europe, 100Rainsy, Sam, 333, 336–7Rajaonarivelo, Pierrot, 281Rajoelina, Andry, 281Rally for Mali, 298Ramahazomanana, Liva, 281






Index 511

Ranariddh, Prince Norodom, 332–6Ratsiraka, Didier, 29, 277–80, 345Ratsiraka, Roland, 281Ravalomanana, Marc, 279–81Rawlings, Jerry, 82, 299–305, 307, 343Razaleigh, Tengku, 62, 320, 323–4RB (Benin Resistance), 294–5Reagan administration, 148, 153Reformasi movement, 55, 325–7Renamo (Mozambican National Resistance),

247–50Republican Party of Armenia, 211–13restricted democracy, 14. See also hybrid regimerevolution, and state cohesion 61, 361–3Revolutionary Armed Forces (Cuba), 363Rhodesia, 239, 239, 248Rice, Condoleezza, 206Robles, Rodolfo, 165Rodney, Walter, 147Roessler, Philip, 54Romania, 4, 33, 78, 252

civil society in, 100, 102; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 17, 21, 22, 87, 89,98–103, 128–9, 341, 370; constitution in,79; constitutional reform in, 80; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 28, 99,101–3, 117; electoral authorities in, 99;ethnic divisions in, 100, 229; EU role in,49, 91, 98, 100–3; linkage in, 48, 51, 52, 78,83, 90–1, 98, 100–4, 117, 132, 375; leveragein, 42, 83, 98, 101, 104, 233, 373; NATOrole in, 103, 163; organizational power in,30, 98–103, 347, 379–80; opposition in,100–2; U.S. role in, 98, 101, 103

Romanian Intelligence Service. See SRIRomanian Humanist Party, 99Rome Peace Accords (1992), 247, 248Rosales, Manuel, 178Rose Revolution, 212, 225rotten-door transitions. See transitions, rotten

doorRubia, Charles, 267Ruffo, Ernesto, 151Russia, 4, 41, 187

as black knight, 41, 185–6, 201, 214, 221,232; Chechen war and, 194, 196; civilsociety in, 197–9; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 14, 16, 20, 21, 22,34, 82, 89, 183–201, 233–4, 342, 370, 371;constitution in, 79, 80, 183; ConstitutionalCourt in, 192; constitutional referendumin, 192–3; discretionary state control ofeconomic power in, 190, 194–6; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 8, 9, 10,11, 13, 28, 58, 191–201; EU role in, 186;

legislature in, 63, 192–4; leverage in, 24,53, 186–7, 190, 217, 220, 232–3, 352, 361,373; linkage in, 46, 53, 186–7, 375;opposition in, 70, 192, 197–8, 349;organizational power in, 25, 35, 57, 59, 60,63, 65, 66, 68, 73, 83, 90, 187–201, 231,233, 343–4, 347, 349, 350, 357, 379–80;parliamentary rebellion (1993) in, 191–3;regional power, role as, 50, 98, 119, 185,201, 203–5, 206, 207, 229;super-presidentialism in,78, 80, 183, 193;U.S. role in, 186, 195, 199

Russian Popular Democratic Union, 199Russia’s Choice, 187, 193–4Russia’s Democratic Choice, 187Rutskoi, Alexander, 192–3Rybkin bloc, 194

Saakashvili, Mikheil, 82, 221, 224–8, 354Saba Saba, 267Sachs, Jeffrey, 133Saitoti, George, 270Salinas, Carlos, 47, 151, 153, 154, 156Salleh, Abbas, 323Samphan, Khieu, 333Sam Rainsy Party (Cambodia). See SRPSanader, Ivo, 118Sandinista National Liberation Front. See

FSLNSandinista Popular Army (Nicaragua). See EPSSandinista regime, 14, 49, 65, 77, 139, 140–5Sangheli, Andrei, 231Santiago Declaration (1991), 131Sarkisian, Serzh, 207, 212–13Sarkisian, Vazgen, 211Sata, Michael, 291Saudi Arabia, 7, 41, 319, 361SBU (Committee on Security in Ukraine),

214Schedler, Andreas, 15Schmitter, Philippe, 81scope. See party strength; state coercive capacitySDF (Social Democratic Front, Cameroon),

260–2SDP (Social Democratic Party, Croatia), 117SDSM (Social Democratic Movement of

Macedonia), 125–7Seck, Idrissa, 276Securitate, 99security forces (including armed forces,

military, police), 57–60, 77, 345, 354–5and parties, 67–8; and playing field, 10; in

Albania, 120–1, 122, 124; in Armenia,58–9; 208–9, 210, 211, 212, 358; inBelarus, 202, 205; in Benin, 292, 293; in






512 Index

security forces (cont.)Botswana, 255; in Cambodia, 329, 330,331–2; 333, 335; in Cameroon, 258–9, 260;in Croatia, 114–15; 117; in Cuba, 362; inDominican Republic, 134, 135; in Gabon,263, 264; in Georgia, 55, 59, 221, 222; 223,225–6; in Ghana, 300; in Guyana, 146,199; in Haiti, 46, 55, 59, 172, 173–4, 176,177, 354; in Kenya, 266, 269, 273; inMacedonia, 125, 126, 128; in Madagascar,277, 280, 281; in Malawi, 282, 283, 284,287; in Malaysia, 318, 319–20, 325, 326,327; in Mali, 297; in Mexico, 45, 48, 152,156; in Moldova, 229; in Mozambique,247, 249–51; in Nicaragua, 139, 142; 145,146; in North Korea, 362; in Peru, 165,168; in Romania, 99, 100, 101; in Russia,185, 187, 188, 189, 190, 192–3, 194, 194;232; in Senegal, 274; in Serbia, 48, 65, 68,105, 106, 110, 111; in Slovakia, 92–3; inTaiwan, 312, 314, 316; in Tanzania, 251;in Ukraine, 214–15, 216, 218; in Zambia,288, 289; in Zimbabwe, 239, 242, 243, 244,246. See also state coercive capacity;organizational power; countries by name

Sedition Act (Malaysia), 321Semangat ’46 (Malaysia), 323–4semi-authoritarianism, 16. See also

authoritarianismsemi-democracy, 14–15. See also hybrid regimesemi-presidentialism, 78, 183, 228, 346Senegal, 4

competitive authoritarianism in, 17, 21, 22,33, 34, 261, 274–6, 305–8, 342, 370, 371;constitutional reform in, 80; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 28, 30, 274–6;electoral authorities in, 276; leverage in,273, 373; linkage in, 273, 275, 375;opposition in, 274–6, 355; organizationalpower in, 26, 65, 70, 237, 263, 265, 273–6,354, 379–80

Senegalese Democratic Party. See PDSSenghor, Leopold Sedar, 274Serbia, 3, 4, 33, 78, 124, 242, 354

civil society in, 109, 112; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 12, 16, 20, 21, 22,33, 76, 82, 87, 104–13, 128–9, 342, 370;discretionary state economic power in,106; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 8, 10, 20, 30, 90, 104–13; andethnic civil war, 85, 91, 104–10, 116; EUrole in, 49, 108, 111–113; legislature in,107–8, 111–12; leverage in, 42, 104–5,108–13, 233, 373; linkage in, 48, 51, 73,104–5, 108–13, 117, 375; nationalism asideology in, 105–7, 113; NATO

intervention in, 46, 104, 109–10, 113;opposition in, 69, 106–8, 110–12, 183–4,348, 349, 356; organizational power in, 29,55, 31, 61, 62, 65, 66, 68, 85, 105–13, 114,125, 183–4, 347, 349, 350, 351, 356,379–80; U.S. role in, 39, 49, 108–11, 220

Serbian Orthodox Church, 108Serbian Radical Party. See SRSSerrano, Jorge, 51Seselj, Vojislav, 108–9sequencing, of reforms, 357–8Sharetskii, Semyon, 204Shevardnadze, Eduard, 16, 55, 220–6, 228, 233,

345, 354Shining Path, 162, 165Shushkevich, Stanislau, 202Sidibe, Mande, 298Sierra Leone, 15, 32Sihanouk, King Norodom, 332, 334SIN (Peruvian National Intelligence Service),

162–5, 167–9Singapore, 34, 58, 321, 343, 350single-party dictatorship/regime, 3, 7, 19, 27,

236, 259, 263, 278, 288. See also fullauthoritarianism

Siradeghian, Vano, 210Sithole, Ndabaningi, 241Skach, Cindy, 78skewed playing field. See playing fieldSkocpol, Theda, 57Slovak Democratic Coalition, 96Slovakia, 4, 78, 81, 346

civil society in, 92; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 21, 22, 33, 34, 82, 87,89, 91–7, 128–9, 342, 370; ConstitutionalCourt in, 93; constitutional reform in, 93;elections, civil liberties and playing field in,31, 93–7; ethnic divisions in, 94, 100; EUrole in, 48–9, 91–2, 94–7; legislature in,95–7; leverage in, 42, 50, 91, 96–7, 90, 233,373; linkage in, 45, 46, 47, 50, 51, 52, 73,78, 90–1, 95–7, 117, 132, 228, 326, 352,375; NATO role in, 97; opposition in,94–7; organizational power in, 30, 85,91–7, 347, 379–80; U.S. role in, 94–5

Slovak Intelligence Service, 92–3Slovak National Party, 96, 97Slovenia, 81Snegur, Mircea, 228–231Snyder, Richard, 14Sobchak, Anatolii, 196Social Christian Reformist Party (Dominican

Republic). See PRSCSocial Democratic Front (Cameroon). See SDFSocial Democratic Movement of Macedonia.

See SDSM






Index 513

Social Democratic Party (Croatia).See SDP

Social Democratic Party (Romania). See PSDSocial Democratic Party (United) (Ukraine),

216Socialist Alliance of Working People of Serbia,

105Socialist International, 113, 134Socialist Party of Albania. See PSSocialist Party of Senegal. See PSSocialist Party of Serbia. See SPSsocial linkage. See linkageSocieties Act (Malaysia), 321Soglo, Nicephore, 63, 291–6, 340Soglo, Rosine, 294–5Somoza, Anastasio, 138–9Soong, James, 311, 317SOP (Party of Civic Understanding, Slovakia),

96Soros, George, 219, 325South Africa, 56, 69, 238, 243, 247, 248Southeast Asia, 236, 331, 334. See also Asia;

countries by nameSoutheast Europe, 87, 117. See also countries by

nameSouth Korea 56, 69Soviet Union

client states of, 17, 247, 293, 344, 361–2;collapse of, 17, 81, 185, 191–2, 203, 209,215, 221, 230, 329, 361, 362, 363; isolationfrom of West, 184–5; legacies of, 50, 73,87; sphere of influence of, 92, 119

Soviet Union, former. See former SovietUnion

Spain, 69, 88, 374SPS (Socialist Party of Serbia), 105–8, 111, 113,

354Srebrenica massacre, 109Sri Lanka, 32SRI (Romanian Intelligence Service), 99SRP (Sam Rainsy Party), 11, 335–6SRS (Serbian Radical Party), 108, 113Stabilization and Association Agreement, 112,

116, 118, 122, 123, 127Stabilization and Association Process, 116stable authoritarianism

in Africa, 237, 306; in Asia, 337; across cases,341–2, 358, 368–9; and black knightsupport, 233, 342; definition of, 22, 25,368–9; and economic development, 75; informer Soviet Union, 234; and linkage,71–2, 181, 336–7, 360–1; and leverage,186, 237, 360–1; and multicandidateelections, 22; and opposition protest, 184;and political parties, 26, 62, 65, 67, 153,270, 213, 353. See also authoritarianism

Stalinist rule, legacies, of, 85, 342. See alsocountries by name

Stambolic, Ivan, 106, 111Stanisic, Jovica, 110state coercive capacity, 54–55

and authoritarian stability/instability, 23,25–6, 55–61, 71–2, 339, 340, 343–4; 345,349, 351, 354–8, 361–3; cohesion, 35,58–61, 77; and democratization, 26;informal institutions and, 28;material/nonmaterial sources of, 60–1, 73,376, 377; measurement of, 59, 61, 376–7;and opposition strength, 25, 69–70; partiesas extension of, 62; and party strength,67–8; scope of, 23, 58–9, 67–8. See alsoindividual countries; security forces

state collapse, 32, 91, 119, 122, 170, 342. Seealso countries by name

state control, and discretionary economicpower. See economic control

state strength. See state coercive capacityStojiljkovic, Vlajko, 110stolen elections. See elections, stolensub-Saharan Africa

closed regimes in, 360; democratization, lackof in, 82; leverage in, 53, 236; linkage in,44, 46, 53, 181, 236; opposition in, 69, 236;organizational power in, 71, 236;post-Cold War international environmentin, 18–19; transnational advocacy networksin, 40; vulnerability to external pressure in,41, 43, 236

succession, 26, 64, 68, 72and authoritarian stability/instability, 347–8;

in competitive authoritarian regimes, 28–9;in Armenia, 212; in Gabon, 265; in Kenya,270–1, 307; in Malawi, 283, 286; inMalaysia, 327; in Mali, 298, 307; inMexico, 172; in Mozambique, 248, 251; inPeru, 172; in Russia, 195, 199; in Tanzania,252; in Ukraine, 218; in Zambia, 290, 291;in Zimbabwe, 244, 245

Sudan, 46, 109, 170Sufi Muslim brotherhoods, 274sultanistic regime, 7, 353. See also full

authoritarianismsuper-presidentialism, 78, 80, 183, 193, 233,

359, 360Supreme Court, 359

in Ghana, 302–3; in Mexico, 79; in Malaysia,322, 323; in Malawi, 285, 286; in Mexico,79; in Nicaragua, 144–5; in Peru, 164; inZimbabwe, 20, 243. See also countries byname

SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia),188






514 Index

Sweden, 34, 66, 374Sy, Moustapha, 275Symonenko, Petro, 217Syria, 29

TACIS (Technical Aid to the Commonwealthof Independent States program), 89, 185

Tadic, Boris, 113Taiwan, 4, 78, 181, 305

and China, 310, 313–16, 318; civil society in,309, 312, 313, 316; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 16, 21, 22, 309,313–18, 337–8, 341, 370, 371;constitutional reform in, 313, 316;discretionary state economic power in,315; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 10, 11, 28, 58, 312–18; legislaturein, 313; leverage in, 53, 83, 310, 373;linkage in, 44, 47, 53, 71, 73, 78, 83,310–18, 319, 375; opposition in, 69, 311–7,349, 351, 357; organizational power in, 55,59, 62, 64, 68, 73, 74, 299, 304, 312–17,325, 328, 348, 349, 356, 357, 379–80; U.S.role in, 310–14

Taiwanese Democratic Movement Overseas,311

Taiwan Revolutionary Party, 311Tajikistan, 80, 352Tanganyika. See TanzaniaTanganyika African National Union. See

TANUTangwai, 313TANU (Tanganyika African National Union),

252Tanzania, 4, 42, 266

civil society in, 252; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 20, 21, 22, 76, 251–4,305–8, 342, 370; constitutional reform in,80; discretionary state economic power in,253; elections, civil liberties and playingfield in, 252–4; leverage in, 251, 254, 373;linkage in, 251, 375; opposition in, 252;organizational power in, 62, 63, 64, 67, 68,237, 252–4, 258, 379–80

Technical Aid to the Commonwealth ofIndependent States program. See TACIS

Technical Secretariat for ElectionAdministration (Mozambique), 250

technocratic linkage. See linkageTekere, Edger, 62Tembo, John, 282–3, 287Temnyki, 11Temporary Provisions (Taiwan), 313, 31510 House Party Cells, 63, 252term limits, 359

and control of legislature, 63; endogeneity of,80; in Africa, 80; in Armenia, 212; inAzerbaijan, 80; in Belarus, 80, 183, 205,359; in Benin, 296; in Burkina Faso, 80; inCameroon, 80, 262, 359; in Chad, 80; inDominican Republic, 359; in Gabon, 80,265, 359; in Ghana, 304; in Kenya, 270; inMalawi, 286, 359; in Mali, 298; inNamibia, 80; in Nicaragua, 145; in Niger,80; in Peru, 80, 359; in Russia, 183, 199,200; in Serbia, 108; in Taiwan, 313; inTajikistan, 80; in Togo, 80; in Uganda, 80;in Ukraine, 80, 183, 218; in Venezuela, 80;in Zambia, 359; in Zimbabwe, 80. See alsoconstitutional reform

Ter-Petrosian, Levon, 29, 77, 82, 207–10,212–13

Tevoedjre, Albert, 295Thailand, 32Third Wave regime transitions, 37–8, 69, 83Thompson, Mark, 349thug mobilization, as opposition strategy, 30,

32Tiananmen Square, 1989 repression, 57,

100Tito, Josip Broz, 114Together for Macedonia coalition, 127Togo, 80Toledo, Alejandro, 52, 162, 168–70, 342Tontons Macoutes, 172Toure, Amadou Toumani, 297, 298–9Toussaint, Yves, 175Traditionalist Party (Georgia), 223Trajkovski, Boris, 126transitional democracies, 3, 27transitions, 3–4, 26–7

hard door, 356; rotten door, 69, 354–6. Seealso countries by name

transnational advocacy networks, 18, 39, 40, 51.See also civil society; NGOs

transnational human-rights networks. See civilsociety; See NGOs

transnational civil society. See civil societytransnational NGO networks. See NGOstransnational party networks, 48–9, 89, 95Transnistria, 229Traore, Moussa, 297Treaty of Amsterdam, 88Tsvangirai, Morgan, 241, 243–6TTS (Youth Aware of Responsibilities,

Madagascar), 277Tudela, Francisco, 167, 169Tudman, Franjo, 49, 79, 82, 113, 115–116, 118,

129turbas divinas, 141, 143






Index 515

Turkey, 14, 32, 88, 208Turkmenistan, 19, 80tutelary regime, 14, 32. See also hybrid regimeTymoshenko, Yulia, 31, 216–18, 220

UDF (United Democratic Front, Malawi),283–7

Uganda, 32, 171, 34, 46, 80, 251, 343Ukraine, 4, 24, 33, 78, 183, 185

competitive authoritarianism in, 3, 12, 14, 15,21, 22, 82, 89, 183–6, 215–20, 342, 370,371; Constitutional Court in, 218;constitutional reform in, 80; elections, civilliberties and playing field in, 8, 9, 10, 11,13, 20, 28, 29, 58, 215–20; EU role in, 214,218, 219; leverage in, 24, 42, 181, 185–6,214, 220, 221, 232–3, 340, 373; linkage in,86, 214, 218, 220, 221, 340, 375;opposition in, 69, 183–4, 205–6, 212,216–19, 233–4, 245, 348, 349; OrangeRevolution in, 31, 54, 70, 185, 193,218–19, 348; organizational power in, 25,30, 31, 60, 64, 65, 67, 68, 69, 70, 77, 83,181, 186, 193, 200, 213–20, 224, 340, 345,350, 357, 379–80; U.S. role in, 219

Ukrainian Communist Party, 215UMNO (United Malays National

Organization), 12, 50, 64, 79, 318–28, 344,354

UN. See United NationsUNDP (National Union for Democracy and

Progress, Cameroon), 31, 261–2uneven playing field. See playing field, unevenUnion of Right Forces (Russia), 198UNIP (United National Independence Party,

Zambia), 64, 65, 263, 276, 288–9, 307United Civic Party (Belarus), 206United Democratic Front (Malawi). See UDFUnited Kingdom, 17–18, 146, 147, 236, 238,

311, 319, 374United Labor Party (Armenia), 212United Malays National Organization. See

UMNOUnited National Independence Party (Zambia).

See UNIPUnited National Movement (Georgia), 225–6,

227United Nations

in Albania, 122; in Cambodia, 330–3, 334,335; in Haiti, 177; in Macedonia, 125–6; inMozambique, 247, 249; in Nicaragua,141

United Russia, 189, 197–201United States, 17–18, 39, 40, 41–2, 47, 85–6,

261, 224, 318, 327, 344, 352–3, 362

in Africa, 236; in Albania, 123; in Armenia,207–8, 210, 212; in Belarus, 205–6; inCameroon, 261; in Croatia, 116; in Cuba,362; in Dominican Republic, 133–7; inGeorgia, 226, 228; in Guyana, 145–9; inHaiti, 39, 171–7; in Kenya, 267; in Malawi,286; in Malaysia, 324–7; in Mexico,149–51, 154–9; in Nicaragua, 138–45; inPeru, 161–3, 165, 167, 169; in Romania,98, 101, 103; in Russia, 186, 195, 199; inSerbia, 39, 49, 108–11, 220; in Slovakia,94–5; in Taiwan, 310–14; in Ukraine, 219

United States Agency for InternationalDevelopment. See USAID

United States Information Agency. See USIAUnity (Russia), 189, 47, 196–7Unity bloc (Armenia), 211Universities and University Colleges Act

(Malaysia), 321UNO (National Opposition Union,

Nicaragua), 49, 141–3unstable authoritarianism

in Africa, 237, 282, 287, 306; in Americas,178; across cases, 340, 341–2, 369;definition of, 22, 369; and Eastern Europe,128; and economic crisis, 346–7; in formerSoviet Union, 234; and regime trajectories,21–2, 37; scoring of, 369

UNTAC (UN Transition Authority inCambodia), 331–2, 334–5

UN Transition Authority in Cambodia. SeeUNTAC

UPC (Cameroon People’s Union), 261USAID (United States Agency for International

Development)in Albania, 123; in Eastern Europe, 185; in

Guyana, 148; in Russia, 195; in Slovakia,92, 96

USIA (United States Information Agency), 142USSR. See Soviet UnionUzbekistan, 7, 8, 16, 33, 45, 46, 80

Vanguard of the Malagasy Revolution. SeeAREMA

Venezuelaas black knight, 131, 179; competitive

authoritarianism in, 4, 16, 32, 82, 178–9;constitutional reform in, 80; electoralauthorities in, 12; opposition in, 30;leverage in, 131; U.S. foreign policytoward, 131

Venice Commission, 89, 185Vietnam, 138, 329–31, 361violent struggle, as source of cohesion 26, 61,

65, 361, 362






516 Index

Vital Forces (Madagascar), 278–9VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian

Revolutionary Organization), 125–8Voninahitsy, Jean Eugene, 279

Wade, Abdoulaye, 31, 275–6war

and state/party cohesion, 55–6, 73, 77, 87, 91,345, 346, 358, 376, 377; in Armenia, 209;in Cambodia, 331; in Croatia, 114, 115; inMozambique, 248; in North Korea, 362; inSerbia, 104, 105; in Tanzania, 251

Washington Protocol (1992), 131Way, Lucan, 56, 57, 357West, the

post-Cold War shift in foreign policy, 17–18;and international post-Cold Warenvironment, 363; linkage to, 5, 45, 70,228; divergent foreign policy objectives,40, 41, 363; and diffusion effects, 17; andexternal assistance, 17; and conditionality,17–18. See also leverage; linkage

Western democratizing pressure. Seeconditionality; democratizing pressure;leverage

Western democracy-promotion strategies. Seedemocratizing pressure

Western leverage. See leverageWestern linkage. See linkageWestern pressure. See democratizing pressure.Westminster parliamentarism, 80Wheatley, Jonathan, 223Wolchik, Sharon, 54Woldenberg, Jose, 160Working People’s Alliance (Guyana). See WPAWorld Bank

and Cambodia, 334; and development, 74–5;and domestic technocrats, 47; and Haiti,176; and Malaysia, 325; and Peru, 163, 168;and Serbia, 107; and Zambia, 290

World Trade Organization, 47, 151World United Formosans for Independence,

311WPA (Working People’s Alliance, Guyana),

147, 148

Yabloko (Russia), 198Yanukovych, Viktor, 29, 193, 216, 218, 220Yaounde Declaration, 260Yavlinsky, Grigorii, 194Yeltsin, Boris, 10, 11, 63, 65, 66, 80, 82, 109,

183, 186–97, 214, 215, 216, 233, 344,359

Yerkrapah (Defenders of the Land, Armenia),208–11

Yoshiyama, Jaime, 166Young Democrats (Malawi), 285Youth Aware of Responsibilities (Madagascar).

See TTSYugoslavia

and army, 105, 114, 125; and federalinstitutions, 104, 105, 107, 108, 106, 124,129, 169; and military intervention, 109,220

Yukos, 194, 198–9Yushchenko, Viktor, 217–20, 340

Zafy, Albert, 278–80Zaire. See CongoZajedno, 108Zakaria, Fareed, 15Zambia, 4, 42, 246

competitive authoritarianism in, 12, 14, 17,21, 22, 82, 288–91, 305–8, 342, 370, 371;constitutional reform in, 80, 289, 290;elections, civil liberties and playing field in,13, 28, 30, 288–91; leverage in, 228, 276,288, 289, 340, 373; linkage in, 24, 51, 52,276, 352, 375; opposition in, 69, 288–91,348, 349, 355; organizational power in, 25,26, 29, 64, 65, 66, 69, 70, 77, 237, 246, 251,263, 276, 288–91, 340, 345, 347, 349, 350,354, 379–80

Zambian Congress of Trade Unions. SeeZCTU

ZANU (Zimbabwe African National Union),26, 65, 200, 242, 238–46, 248, 256, 305,308, 345

Zanzibar, 252, 253, 254Zapatista National Liberation Army. See EZLNZapatista uprising, 45, 48, 156–8ZAPU (Zimbabwe African People’s Union),

240ZCTU (Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions),

241, 245ZCTU (Zambian Congress of Trade Unions),

288Zedillo, Ernesto, 47, 82, 151, 158–9Zelaya, Manuel, 179Zhvania, David, 219, 220Zhvania, Zurab 224–5Zhirinovsky, Vladimir 200Zimbabwe, 4

civil society in, 238, 240; competitiveauthoritarianism in, 3, 12, 17, 20, 21, 22,33, 34, 76, 82, 206, 240–6, 305–8, 342, 370,371; Congo conflict and, 241;constitutional reform in, 80; discretionarystate economic power in, 240; elections,civil liberties and playing field in, 8, 10, 13,






Index 517

20, 28, 30, 58, 240–6; High Court in, 243;leverage in, 238, 352, 373; linkage in, 48,238, 375; opposition in, 70, 238, 240–1,348, 349, 356; organizational power in, 23,26, 55, 57, 59, 60, 61, 62, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73,74, 77, 83, 237, 238–40, 251, 255, 273, 345,347, 350, 356, 379–80; role of past violentconflict in, 201, 238–40, 255, 288, 354;Supreme Court in, 20, 243

Zimbabwe African National Union. SeeZANU

Zimbabwe African People’s Union. See ZAPU

Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions. SeeZCTU

Zimbabwe National Army. See ZNAZimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army. See

ZIPRAZimbabwe Unity Movement. See ZUMZIPRA (Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary

Army), 239ZNA (Zimbabwe National Army), 239ZUM (Zimbabwe Unity Movement), 240–1Zurabishvili, David, 225, 226Zyuganov, Gennady, 194–5, 198, 200






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