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ISAT 341: Modeling and Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation Lab: Processing Time

By Melissa Von Wald, Spring Semester 2013

Background to Lab

Ater !ompleting t"e Monte #arlo tutorial la$, t"is la$ %ill gi&e you more pra!ti!e !reating,running, and analy'ing Monte #arlo simulations %it" ()IS*+ T"e system des!ription %as taen

rom a pre&ious -is!rete .&ent Simulation la$ and simpliied so t"at %e !an !reate distri$utions

or ea!" o t"e pro!esses+ )ead o&er t"e system des!ription $elo%+

System Description

ISAT Sa&ings / oan is a lo!al inan!ial institution t"at pro&ides residential mortgage loans to t"e!iti'ens o arrison$urg, VA+ T"e resident o ISAT S/ "as !onta!ted you regarding statisti!s o t"eir

residential mortgage loan appli!ation and appro&al pro!ess+ T"e resident %ants to no% "o% long t"e

pro!ess taes rom re!ei&ing an appli!ation to appro&al+

ISAT S/ re!ei&es mortgage loan appli!ations in &arious %ays: eit"er aed to t"e $an, illed out in

person, or ele!troni!ally &ia t"e $ans Internet "omepage+ Appli!ation types arri&e at dedi!ated lo!ation

areas and t"e oan Appli!ation 5i!ers6 7o$s tae a minimum o 10 minutes, a maimum o 2 "ours, and

most liely 20 minutes+

W"en an appli!ation is re!ei&ed, i it is not already in ele!troni! orm, it must $e !on&erted into ele!troni!

orm $y t"e -ata .ntry -epartment $eore any urt"er pro!essing !an tae pla!e+ T"e -ata .ntry

-epartment %ill enter all o t"e re8uired inormation rom t"e appli!ation into t"e $ans data inormation

system+ T"e data entry pro!ess taes an a&erage o 3 "ours $ut eponentially de!reases %it" a lot o

appli!ations taing less time and &ery e% taing more time+

5n!e t"e appli!ation is in ele!troni! orm, t"e $ans #redit Assessment -epartment 9#A- determines

t"e initial !redit %ort"iness o t"e appli!ant+ T"e !redit e&aluation pro!ess taes our days most o t"e

time, %it" t"e most rapid appro&al "appening in t"ree days, and t"e longest appro&al re8uiring up to sidays+ I t"e appli!ant is determined to $e !redit %ort"y $y t"e #redit Assessment -epartment it is passed

to t"e ersonal oan -epartment+ T"e - re!ei&es an appli!ation, it irst re&ie%s t"e appli!ation to

ensure t"at all t"e inormation is !orre!t+ T"e re&ie% pro!ess taes one day at t"e &ery most, and ; day at

t"e &ery least, %it" re&ie% !ompletion time e8ually liely $et%een t"ose t%o etremes+ T"e appli!ation is

sent to t"e oan #ompletion -epartment 9#- %"o !onta!ts t"e !ustomer at an a&erage o one "our a

standard de&iation o 1< minutes+

StepsBegin $y !oping t"e ollo%ing ta$le into an e!el spread s"eet+ T"e departments !orrespond to

t"e dierent steps in t"e pro!ess+ )ead t"roug" t"e des!ription and identiy t"e distri$utions or

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ea!" step+ =ou s"ould "a&e triangular, uniorm, and normal distri$utions+ Mae sure t"e

min>ma>mean>standard de&iation data mat!"es t"e inormation rom t"e s!enario+ ?o% insert

t"e un!tions asso!iated %it" t"ese $y !li!ing @Insert un!tion6 on t"e ()IS* tool$ar+

?ote, some o t"e times are gi&en in minutes, "ours and days+ I !on&erted t"em to "ours or t"e

un!tions+ 1 $usiness day is C "ours+

T"e net step is to ind t"e total time+ In t"e !ell "ig"lig"ted in red, mae it e8ual t"e sum o t"e

i&e un!tions+ T"e !ode or mine %as DSEM94:C+ Sin!e ea!" day is C "ours I t"oug"t it %as"elpul to di&ide t"e total $y C so our ans%er %ill $e in num$er o $usiness days+ We t"en need

to add t"e ris output $y !li!ing @Insert un!tion6 on t"e ()IS* tool$ar, @5utput6,

@)is5utput6+ T"e !ode or my !ell %as DSEM94:C>C F )is5utput9+

?o% run t"e simulation %it" 100 trials+ W"at do you noti!eG

Trying running t"e simulation %it" more trials lie