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Session 9Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave, pp. 1-108pp. 31-108CHAPTER 2

Introduction

It is a phenomenon of politics that similar events often happen simultaneously in different countries. Howto explain this: single cause, parallel development, snowballing, prevailing nostrum (i.e. differentproblems being addressed with similar solutions)

As described in Ch. 1, focus of this study is on the third democratization wave. In general, causes ofdemocratization are varied. No single factor is sufficient, and no single factor necessary, to explainregime change.Causal Factors1st Wave: Economic development, industrialization, urbanization, growth of middle class, victory ofWestern Allies in WWI, dismantling of empires (*economic and social factors)2nd Wave: Democracy imposed by Allies after WWII, effects of Allied victory, decolonialization (*Politicaland military factors).

3rd Wave: 5 Patterns of Regime Change: Cyclical alternation b/w democracy and authoritarianism, where alternation actually begins to

function as countrys political system (in lieu of alternation b/w two political parties)

Second-Try Pattern Weak democracy gives way to authoritarianism, then replaced by stronger

democracy.

Interrupted Democracy temporary suspension of democratic system, then resumed.

Direct Transition characterized 1st wave of democratization

Decolonialization Pattern characterized 2nd wave

Huntington addresses the question:What changes in independent variables in the 1960s and 1970s produced the dependent variable of ademocratizing regime change in the 1970s and 1980s?5 changes evaluated by this study:1. Deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems2. Global economic growth of the 1960s3. Changing doctrine of the Catholic Church4. Changes in the policies of external actors5. Snowballing effectsHe explains each of these changes in detail, providing examples, throughout the rest of the chapter.

1. Legitimacy ProblemsPost WWII prevailing democratic ethos developed throughout the world. Even authoritarian regimesincreasingly used democratic rhetoric to justify their legitimacy.

Political legitimacy inevitably declines over time, and authoritarian regimes, unlike democracies, have

no mechanisms for self-renewal.

Poor economic performance and military failures undermined legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, b/c

they had no procedural legitimacy to change policies, as in democracies.

2. Economic Development and Economic CrisesCorrelation b/w wealth and democracy indicates that democratic transitions should occur in countries atmiddle level of development.

Broad-based economic development with industrialization DOES contribute to democratization, but

wealth from sale of natural resources (i.e. oil) goes directly to state, discourages taxation, andtherefore does NOT necessarily contribute to democratization.

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Increased economic well-being shapes societal values, increases levels of education, facilitates

compromises (as there are more resources to be distributed), promotes trade opening, and expandsmiddle class.

*Most active supporters of third wave democratization came from urban middle class.

Short-term: Rapid economic growth can undermine authoritarian regimes if combined w/short-term

economic crisis or failure (author discusses the 1970s oil crisis and other economic crises).

3. Religious ChangesCorrelation between Western Christianity, esp. Protestantism, and democracy.

Most prominent case of expansion of Christianity in third wave democracies is South Korea, where

post WWII just 1% of population was Christian, by mid 1980s 25% Christian. Churches becameprincipal forum for opposition to military regime and helped achieve transition to democracy in 1988.

Changes in political alignment of Roman Catholic Church. Repositioning from accommodating

authoritarian regimes to opposing them.

Second Vatican Council and Pope John Paul II used power of Church to defend human rights;

politically motivated papal visits played a key role.

National churches brought many resources (*esp national network of members) to war against

authoritarianism in countries like Philippines, Korea, Chile, Brazil, Poland, Nicaragua, DR, Panamaetc.

Catholicism second only to economic development as force promoting democratization in 1970s and1980s.

4. New Policies of External ActorsBy late 1980s, major sources of power and influence Vatican, European Community (EC), U.S. andSoviet Union were promoting liberalization and democratization.

The European Community

EC officially formed in 1969, first expansion in 1973. To be a member, countries had to be

democratic. Membership also helped prevent regression to authoritarianism. (Greece joined in 1981,Spain and Portugal in 1986).

Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), Helsinki Final Act influenced

development of human rights and democracy in Europe, particularly by helping to foster openings in

Eastern Europe.

The United States

As of 1974 shift to promoting human rights in foreign policy. Carter administration strengthened this

commitment post 1977.

Reagan administration introduced promotion of democratic change as major foreign policy goal and

created the National Endowment for Democracy (summarizers note: this is the Endowment thatcreated NDI, where I used to work, and IRI, as well as the business and labor solidarity groups whoseacronyms are escaping me).

US democracy promotion efforts included: diplomatic action, economic pressure, material support for

democratic opposition forces, military action and multilateral diplomacy.Conclusion: Difficult to make definitive evaluation of US role, but US support was clearly instrumental todemocratization process in many countries (see text for many specific examples).

The Soviet Union

Even more dramatic policy shift than in the case of the US.

Gorbachev revoked the Brezhnev doctrine and conveyed to Eastern European governments that

Soviet govt would not act to maintain their existing communist dictatorships. Opened the way forouster of communist leaders, elections, opening of frontiers w/Western Europe, and market-orientedreforms.

5. Demonstration Effects or Snowballing

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Definition: Successful democratization occurs in one country and this encourages democratization inother countries. Why did this happen? Countries saw:

That it was possible to bring down authoritarian systems

HOW to do it

What dangers to avoid, difficulties to overcome

General role of demonstration effects in the third wave:1 More important in 3rd wave than in first 2 waves b/c of improved communications2 Despite this, demonstration effects still strongest among countries that were geographically close andculturally similar. (*influence of Spanish democratization on all of Latin America). Most dramaticsnowballing in Eastern Europe in 1989.3 Demonstration effects were more influential at the END of the wave than at the beginning. At the endof the 1980s, demonstration effects influenced countries where other conditions for democracy were weakor absent.

CONCLUSIONS

These were the general causes of the 3rd wave of democratization, quite different from causes of the firsttwo waves. Relative significance of these causes varied by region and evolved as the 3rd wave

progressed. Emergence of social, economic and external conditions favorable to democracy isnecessary, but not sufficient, to produce democracy: political leaders have to be willing to take the risk ofdemocracy to make it happen.