A Mekong river basin trans-boundary perspective on adaption … 2009. 12. 16. · LMB Mainstream Dam 45 35,152.2 48,909.9 LMB Tributary Dam 70 26,728.2 71,936.9 LMB 20-year ... •Impact

12th International RiverSymposium, Brisbane 21-24 September 2009

Kien Tran MaiClimate Change Programme Officer

Mekong River Commission

A Mekong river basin

trans-boundary perspective on

adaption planning and actions

through a collaborative regional

framework


Contents

Mekong river basin: Transboundary

context and climate change issue

MRC Climate change and Adaptation

Initiative

Challenges and way forwards


Mekong river basin:

Transboundary development context

and climate change issue


The Greater

Mekong:

transboundary

context

The Lower Mekong Basin:

transboundary and development context


Basin development plan (BDP)

Hydropower Irrigation


Scenario No

Project

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Active

Storage

(MCM)

Baseline 1,553.211 9,638.2

Upper

Mekong Dam17,003.217 32,871.2

Definite

Future21,073.235 44,003.9

LMB Mainstream

Dam35,152.245 48,909.9

LMB Tributary

Dam26,728.270 71,936.9

LMB 20-year

Plan40,807.280 76,843.9

Hydropower

Irrigation

BDP, 2008


Planning assessment

process

Decision Support FrameworkDecision Support Framework

Hydrological

Model - SWAT

Hydrological Hydrological

Model Model -- SWATSWAT

Basin Simulation

Model - IQQM

Basin SimulationBasin Simulation

Model Model -- IQQMIQQM

Hydrodynamic

Model - ISIS

Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic

Model Model -- ISISISIS

Impact Analysis ToolsImpact Analysis Tools

Time-seriesTimeTime--seriesseries SpatialSpatialSpatial

know

led

ge B

ase

know

led

ge B

ase

know

led

ge B

ase

Decision Support FrameworkDecision Support FrameworkDecision Support FrameworkDecision Support Framework

Hydrological

Model - SWAT

Hydrological Hydrological

Model Model -- SWATSWAT

Basin Simulation

Model - IQQM

Basin SimulationBasin Simulation

Model Model -- IQQMIQQM

Hydrodynamic

Model - ISIS

Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic

Model Model -- ISISISIS





know

led

ge B

ase

know

led

ge B

ase

know

led

ge B

ase

BDP and CC scenario

Vali-

dated

input

data

Rules in

water

use

Assess-

ment

frame-

work

Climate

Change

and basin

planning:

Decision

Support

Framework


Change of mean annual sub-basin daily average

temperature during 2010-50 relative to 1985-2000

ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM4 B2


Change of mean annual subbasin rainfall (%) during

2010-50 relative to baseline 1985-2000

ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM4 B2


MAX WATER LEVEL

OF PRESENT

CONDITION

MAX WATER LEVEL

OF SEA LEVEL RISE 50CM

MAX WATER LEVEL OF SEA LEVEL RISE 100 CM

MAX WATER LEVEL OF PRESENT CONDITION



People’s efforts to adapt to climate change


MRC Climate change and

Adaptation Initiative - CCAI

A collaborative regional initiative of LMB

countries aiming to support the countries in

adapting to the impacts and new challenges of

climate change through improved planning,

implementation and learning


MRC Climate change and

Adaptation Initiative - CCAI

CCAI will benefit each of the four Member

Countries, be linked with and support their

national climate change strategies and

activities

CCAI is integrated across all the MRC

programmes and built on regional partnership

and collaboration


Cross-cutting and linking-programmes initiatives - the IWRM, ISH

and CCAI highlight the WEC Nexus in Mekong context

Information and

Knowledge Management

Environment

Integrated

Capacity Building

Water Utilization

Flo

od

Ma

na

gem

en

t a

nd

Mit

iga

tio

n

Dro

ug

ht

Ma

na

gem

en

t

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, Ir

rig

ati

on

& F

ore

str

y

Na

vig

ati

on

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fis

heri

es

To

uri

sm

Basin Development Planning

Information and


Environment

Integrated

Capacity Building

Water Utilization

Flo

od

Ma

na

gem

en

t a

nd

Mit

iga

tio

n

Dro

ug

ht

Ma

na

gem

en

t

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, Ir

rig

ati

on

& F

ore

str

y

Na

vig

ati

on

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fis

heri

es

To

uri

sm


Information and


Environment

Integrated

Capacity Building

Water Utilization

Flo

od

Ma

na

gem

en

t a

nd

Mit

iga

tio

n

Dro

ug

ht

Ma

na

gem

en

t

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, Ir

rig

ati

on

& F

ore

str

y

Na

vig

ati

on

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fis

heri

es

To

uri

sm


Information and


Environment

Integrated

Capacity Building

Water Utilization

Flo

od

Ma

na

gem

en

t a

nd

Mit

iga

tio

n

Dro

ug

ht

Ma

na

gem

en

t

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, Ir

rig

ati

on

& F

ore

str

y

Na

vig

ati

on

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fis

heri

es

To

uri

sm


IWRM


MRC already active in CC & adaptation

Downscaling of global climate change scenario climate to Mekong region (with SEA START)

Hydrological modeling (with CSIRO and IWMI);

Overview studies of basin vulnerability ( with IWMI and Institute of Environmental Studies);

Assessing threats, local vulnerabilities and adaptation capacities in two watersheds in Lao PDR and Cambodia (with GTZ)

Site specific studies (eg Songkram River with Finland)

16


What is MRC CCAI? Where:

Lower Mekong basin – 4 Member Countries

Upper Mekong influence, dialogue with China

and Myanmar

Duration and cyclical:

Long duration (eg 15 years in 5 year cycles)

Program approach; Phased to match the MRC

and member states five years planning cycles


What is MRC CCAI? Scope and scale:

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning and implementation within the Mekong River Basin

Focus and approaches:

- Basin wide integrated approach consistent with IWRM and the MRC 1995 Agreement

- Participatory approach: Consultations & Inclusion

- Collaborative approach: Partnership (countries, partners, donors, MRC programmes)

- Program approach: several program cycles with feedback, M&E and improving adaptation planning and implementation


Some key principles

1/ CCAI must benefit/ owned by each of the

four Member Countries, be linked with and

support their national climate change

strategies and activities;

2/ Adaptation implementation process

(practical performance) is as important as

adaptation strategy/ policies: need pilots and

demonstrations in parallel with assessments,

tools and policy development


Some key principles

3/ Local aspect of adaptation performance

with wise use of existing local experience or

indigenous knowledge

4/ Start adapt now, not waiting for completion

of assessments/ tools/ policies, but prepare for

future uncertainty by risk management tool

5/ Setting priorities: regional, national and

local


Priorities for MRC in regional

climate change adaption

1. Water resources management

2. Ecosystems enhancement and

maintenance

3. Livelihoods and food security

21


Three dimensions for the CCAI

1. Adaptation planning steps

2. The spatial planning hierarchy – Basin to

local level

3. The development sectors - Prioritisation


Development planning levels

• Basin wide

• Sub-basin/transboundary

• National

• Sub-national – eg river basins

• Province

• Cities/towns

• Local government

• Community

Development sectors

• Water supply

• Water sanitation

• Energy

• Transport

• Agriculture

• Fisheries

• Forestry

• Public health

• Tourism

Adaptation planning steps

• Baseline assessment

• Projecting climate and hydrological change

• Socio-economic projections

• Impact assessment

• Vulnerability assessment

• Developing adaptation options

• Integrating with development plans


24

Development

planning

levels

Adaptation planning components

1.B

ase

line

asse

ssm

ent

2.P

roje

ctin

g cl

imat

e

and

hyd

rolo

gica

l

chan

ge

3.S

oci

o-e

con

om

ic

pro

ject

ion

s

4.I

mp

act

asse

ssm

ent

5.V

uln

erab

ility

asse

ssm

ent

6.D

evel

op

ing

adap

tati

on

op

tio

ns

7.I

nte

grat

ing

wit

h

dev

elo

pm

ent

pla

ns

Basin

Sub basins/

transboundary areas

National level

Sub-national areas

Provincial

Local government

Integrated climate change assessment and adaptation framework

The third

dimension:

development

sectors

Defining the role of MRC and

the CCAI


MRC CCAI Objectives and Outcomes

CCAI Objective:

Climate change adaptation planning and

implementation is guided by improved

strategies and plans at various levels

and in priority locations throughout the

Lower Mekong Basin


MRC CCAI Objectives and Outcomes

Outcome 1: Climate Change Adaptation Planning

and Implementation

Outcome 2: Improved Capacity to Manage and

Adapt to Climate Change

Outcome 3: Strategies and Plans for Climate

Change Adaptation

Outcome 4: Regional Exchange, Collaboration

and Learning


Participatory approach and

ownership of member countries

Three rounds of National Consultations in all

member countries during formulation

Internal consultation within MRC - with all

related MRC Programs, especially BDP, FMMP,

AIFP, GTZ-WSMP


Partnership consultations

Out-reaching consultation and exploring

partnerships with development partners &

research institutions:

CSIRO, SEA START, IWMI, SEI...

UNDP, GTZ, FAO, ADB;

WWF, IUCN, Wetland Alliance, NARBO;

Informal consultation with upstream dialogue

partners - China and Myanmar


Regional collaboration & partnership

Potential CCAI technical collaboration partners:

Climate and

hydrology group

IWMI Sea START CSIRO ANU ICAM

Natural systems

assessment

group

Wetland Alliance

WWF IUCN World Fish

Socio-economic

systems group

OXFAM CARE GTZ SEI

CCAI implementing partners core group

ACIAR ADB/EOC FAO M-POWER UNDP

UNEP UNESCAP

ICIMOD

IFRC (Red Cross)

NARBO/NAHRIM

SEAFDEC,

ADPC

UNISDR

Donor technical

experts


Nairobi principles in MRC CCAI context

• No. 1 - The Development Principle: The CCAI

focuses on climate change adaptation seen in a

development context e.g. by considering the

development context as described in the BDP

scenarios;

• No. 2 - The Resilience Principle: Building

resilience by addressing existing problems that

climate change is expecting to exacerbate (eg.

flood and drought management, disaster risk reduction,

watershed management and halting the loss of

biodiversity)


• No. 3 - The Governance Principle: Capacity

development, participation, awareness raising

and gender equality are specifically included

• No. 4 - The Information Principle: Information

compilation and disclosure and meaningful

communication at all levels

• No. 5 - The Economics & Financing Principle:

The costs and benefits of adaptation under CCAI

will be assessed to provide information for and

facilitate financing considerations

Nairobi principles in MRC CCAI context


Some outputs of Initial phase

1. National overview reports on climate

change related activities

2. Regional synthesis report

3. Comprehensive CCAI Framework

Document, adopted by the countries and

approved by main donor AusAID.


CCAI network of adaptation pilot projects

Linked chain of sites coming together regularly

for exchange, learning and demonstration

Work through appropriate adaptation planning

steps

Testing impact assessment tools and adaptation

options

Nodes in the Mekong regional climate change

monitoring network

33


Adaptation

planning

through local

demonstration

activities

Scoping the adaptation

strategy/project

Vulnerability assessment

Sensitivity

Potential

impacts

Adaptive

capacity

Vulnerability

Exposure

Sta

keh

old

er eng

agem

ent a

nd

cap

acity

bu

ildin

g

Mo

nit

ori

ng

an

d e

va

lua

tion

of

ad

ap

tati

on

im

ple

men

tati

on

Identification of adaptation

options and development of

adaptation strategy

Implementation of adaptation

options


The way forwards: Need Regional

coordination and collaboration

Support and closely link with national CC and related strategies, policies and actions

Bridging researchers / scientists and scientific studies to the policy makers and the public through training, awareness rising and capacity building for policy makers, planner, national experts and the public

Establish the Mekong Panel of experts on Climate change

Regional collaboration and building partnership; extend the network and sharing experiences, data and information


Thank you for your attention!

Website: www.mrcmekong.org

email: [email protected]

http://www.mrcmekong.org/

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

A Mekong river basin trans-boundary perspective on adaption … 2009. 12. 16. · LMB Mainstream Dam 45 35,152.2 48,909.9 LMB Tributary Dam 70 26,728.2 71,936.9 LMB 20-year ... •Impact