A Multilateral Test for Modi _ The Diplomat.pdf

The India-Association of South East AsianNations (ASEAN) Summit and the East AsiaSummit (EAS), both in Nay Pyi Daw,Myanmar, on November 11 and 12, are amongthe major geopolitically significant gatheringsof world leaders this month. These interactionswill demonstrate if Prime Minister NarendraModis proactive engagements over the past six months, at the bilateral level and with BRICSleaders, have effectively improved global perceptions of India.

After Nay Pyi Daw, Modi will head to the G20 meeting in Brisbane, and the South AsianAssociation for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Kathmandu. Modi will not attend theAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Beijing, although India has applied formembership of the grouping. China has been the main obstacle to Indias membership, but thefirst-ever invitation to India to attend the summitby Chinese president Xi Jinping inJulycould signal a reduction in Beijings obstruction.

All these meetings will focus on Asias growing contribution to global growth, particularly tradeagreements like the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional ComprehensiveEconomic Partnership (RCEP). India has expressed support for the RCEPwhich includes Chinabut excludes the U.S.but not yet for the U.S.-led TPP, which is designed to exclude China. Therest of the overlapping membership of the two trade agreements largely comprises ASEANmembers and South Pacific countries, most of which are also part of APECitself an incipienttrading bloc.

Although political differences and impasses are not usually officially addressed at such summitswhere the focus is economica majority of the discussions on the sidelines of the formalmeetings are likely to center on the spread of jihadist terror and the endeavors of all countries toadjust to the rise of China.

Many Asian countries are either victims of terror attacks, highly susceptible to terrorism, or safehavens for terrorists; the militant Islamic State (IS) has brought this phenomenon to the forefrontof foreign policy discourse. Despite the turmoil in West Asia, oil prices are on a downwardtrajectory and so far the violence has not directly affected other parts of Asia. But with West

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Asiathe traditional source of energy imports, labour exports and remittancesin disarray, thisis an opportune moment for India to strengthen its Look East policy to expand economicinteractions and security partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region.

As the dominant power in Asia, China is changing the rules in the region with mixed signals toIndia (frequent high-level visits by Chinese leaders coinciding with border incursions by Chinesetroops), with its expansionism in the South China Sea, and by proposing the Maritime Silk Route,a strategic endeavor disguised as an economic initiative to link regional ports, many of which arebuilt by China.

The U.S. has revived its Asia pivottemporarily sidelined by the more immediate Ukraine and IScrises. Secretary of State John Kerrys visit to Jakarta on October 20 for President Joko Widodosinauguration was followed by meetings with the prime ministers of Australia, Malaysia, andSingapore, the Sultan of Brunei, and the foreign minister of the Philippines. However, China, likeRussia in the context of Ukraine, is challenging the global status quo created by dominantwestern powers to serve their own interests.

Just as Chinas assertiveness in the South China Sea was a common thread through Kerrysmeetings, it is expected to also seep into all the multilateral meetings this month. This will be thecase even at the India-ASEAN and SAARC summits though China is not a member of eithergrouping.

For India, China represents a threat as well as an opportunity. Its growing presence in Indiasneighbourhood could become a threat, but there is also the opportunity to reset bilateraleconomic relations by attracting Chinese investments$20 billion over five years was pledged byXi during his visitfor Indias considerable infrastructure requirements.

Tackling Chinas influence on ASEAN and SAARC is an entirely different challenge. Its massivebilateral trade relations with ASEAN and SAARC member countries dwarf those of Indias. Forexample, Chinas trade with ASEAN member Vietnam was $50 billion in 2013, while India-Vietnam trade is a relatively meagre $8 billion. Similarly, Chinas trade with SAARC memberPakistan is $12 billion, while Indias is only $2.6 billion.

However, China also has territorial disputes with most of its maritime neighbours in ASEAN, aswell as with Japan. It has so far avoided antagonising all of them at the same time, but thedisagreements have persisted. These differences give urgency to the efforts of countries likeIndonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines to unite to uphold agreementssuch as the 2002Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Seato curb Chinas expansionism. Atthe same time, their economic dependence on China remains hightheir trade with China andtheir participation in global supply chains running through China.

These divergent pulls give New Delhi the strategic space to balance Beijings influence on ASEANcountries. At the same time, the need to reduce their economic dependence on China hasencouraged these countries to reach out to India.

The onus to respond constructively is on the economic diplomacy-minded Modi. While it will beimpossible to match Beijings financial clout, creative diplomacyas seen in Indias recent $100million line of credit to Vietnam for defence importscan deepen strategic and political relationswith ASEAN countries. India must move purposefully to implement the free trade agreements in


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goods and services with the grouping. India can also be less reticent on joint military exerciseswith the more receptive countries in the region.

At the EAS, Modi has the opportunity to build on his prior meetings with leaders like Russianpresident Vladimir Putin, Obama, and Xi, while reaching out to leaders he has not yet met, suchas Widodo and Myanmars president U Thein Sein.

The meeting with Thein Sein will be an opportunity for Modi to expand bilateral relations byaddressing issues such as trade (a modest $2 billion in 2012-13), insurgencies on the border, andenergy cooperation. By assisting in Myanmars democratic transformation, India will be closelyaligned with its partners in ASEAN and the West.

Ambassador Neelam Deo is Co-founder and Director of Gateway House. She has been theIndian Ambassador to Denmark and Ivory Coast with concurrent accreditation to several WestAfrican countries. This article was originally published at Gateway House: Indian Council onGlobal Relations, a foreign policy think tank in Mumbai, India, established to engage Indiasleading corporations and individuals in debate and scholarship on Indias foreign policy andthe nations role in global affairs.


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A Multilateral Test for Modi _ The Diplomat.pdf