A TEST OF TRANSFERABILITY:THE SE FLORIDA ACTIVITY-BASED MODEL

14th TRB National Planning Applications ConferenceMay 5-9, 2013, Columbus, Ohio

Rosella PicadoParsons Brinckerhoff

Background

Southeast Florida is home to 5.5 million people, spanning Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties

Relatively disperse travel patterns with significant congestion on Turnpike and north-south freeways

Growing interest in improving transit, expand toll and managed lane infrastructure, mitigate adverse EJ impacts

Trip-based model reaching its limits, especially regarding variably-priced tolling, fare policies, spatial detail, EJ analysis

SE Florida ABM

Coordinated Travel – Regional Activity-based Modeling Platform Family of ABMs

Main features: Explicit intra-household interactions Continuous temporal dimension (half-hour time periods) Fine spatial dimension (12,000 MAZs) Faithful transit access coding Distributed values of time Integration of location, time-of-day, and mode choice

models

Model Development Strategy

Transfer the San Diego ABM Adopt CT-RAMP structure and sub-models Adopt model parameters estimated with San Diego

household survey data Update certain models to reflect SE Florida conditions:

input data availability (employment, population controls) modal supply trip assignment methods ancillary models

Calibrate models to SE Florida travel patterns Re-specify models that fail to perform well

Why Model Transfer?

Schedule: To use the ABM in the development of the 2013 Long

Range Transportation Plan Approximately 18 months available for model

development was insufficient time to estimate & validate all models

Data: Quantity and quality of NHTS SE Florida sample may

preclude statistically significant estimation of some models and/or population effects

Largely sufficient for calibration, with caveats

Data Limitations

Small sample size – 2,000 households Some subareas within model region under-

represented Retired households over-sampled College students and children under-

represented Missing data, ‘ungeocodable’ activity

locations, etc. Incomplete transit on-board survey

Assessing the Model Transfer Outcome Evaluate initial estimated travel patterns against

model calibration targets Regional targets for important person markets Sub-regional where data allow

Assess the magnitude of constant or parameter adjustments to match targets

Importance of model calibration targets Based on NHTS and supplemented with other sources Evaluated for reasonableness Compared to targets from other regions

Work Location Model - initial results

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

Observed Estimated

Distance (miles)

Person Type

Avg. Length (mi.)

Obs. Est.Full-time 10.6 9.4Part-time 7.5 5.3All 9.9 8.7

Tour Frequency (%)

Work Location Model - calibrated

Person Type

Avg. Length (mi.)

Obs. Est.Full-time 10.6 10.2Part-time 7.5 7.0All 9.9 9.7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

Observed Estimated

Distance (miles)

Tour Frequency (%)

School Location Model - initial

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Observed Estimated

Distance (miles)

Tour Frequency (%)

School Location Model - calibrated

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Observed Estimated

Distance (miles)

Tour Frequency (%)

Eating Out Location Model - initial

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Survey ModelDistance

Tour Frequency (%)

Daily Activity Pattern Model

Target DAP Model Initial DAP

Person type Mandatory

Non Mandator

yHome Mandatory Non

Mandatory Home

Full-time worker 80% 14% 7% 81% 12% 7%Part-time worker 55% 37% 8% 63% 26% 11%University student 78% 18% 4% 63% 25% 12%Non-working adult 0% 76% 24% 0% 74% 26%Non-working senior 0% 72% 28% 0% 75% 25%Driving age student 89% 4% 6% 92% 3% 5%Pre-driving student 94% 3% 2% 96% 2% 2%Pre-school 35% 43% 22% 43% 41% 15%

Daily Activity Pattern Model

Target DAP Model Initial DAP

Person type Mandatory

Non Mandator

yHome Mandatory Non

Mandatory Home

Full-time worker 80% 14% 7% 81% 12% 7%Part-time worker 55% 37% 8% 63% 26% 11%University student 78% 18% 4% 63% 25% 12%Non-working adult 0% 76% 24% 0% 74% 26%Non-working senior 0% 72% 28% 0% 75% 25%Driving age student 89% 4% 6% 92% 3% 5%Pre-driving student 94% 3% 2% 96% 2% 2%Pre-school 35% 43% 22% 43% 41% 15%

Non-Mandatory Tour Frequency

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Full-time WorkersPart-time workers

Observed Tour Frequency

Estimated Tour Frequency (%) Initial Calibrat

ed

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Full-time WorkersPart-time workersUniversity students

Observed Tour Frequency

Non-Mandatory Tour Frequency

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Driving studentsPre-driving studentsPre-school children

Observed Tour Frequency

Estimated Tour Frequency (%) Initial

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Driving studentsPre-driving studentsPre-school children

Observed Tour Frequency

Calibrated

Work Departure and Arrival Times

Befor

e 5 am

5:00 a

m to 5:

30 am

5:30 a

m to 6:

00 am

6:00 a

m to 6:

30 am

6:30 a

m to 7:

00 am

7:00 a

m to 7:3

0 am

7:30 a

m to 8:

00 am

8:00 a

m to 8:

30 am

8:30 a

m to 9:

00 am

9:00 a

m to 9:

30 am

9:30

am to

10:00

am

10:00

am to

10:30

am

10:30

am to

11:00

am

11:00

am to

11:30

am

11:30

am to

12:00

pm

12:00

pm to

12:30

pm

12:30

pm to

1:00

pm

1:00 p

m to 1:3

0 pm

1:30 p

m to 2:0

0 pm

2:00 p

m to 2:

30 pm

2:30 p

m to 3:

00 pm

3:00 p

m to 3:

30 pm

3:30 p

m to 4:

00 pm

4:00 p

m to 4:

30 pm

4:30 p

m to 5:

00 pm

5:00 p

m to 5:

30 pm

5:30 p

m to 6:0

0 pm

6:00 p

m to 6:3

0 pm

6:30 p

m to 7:

00 pm

7:00 p

m to 7:

30 pm

7:30 p

m to 8:

00 pm

8:00 p

m to 8:

30 pm

8:30 p

m to 9:

00 pm

9:00 p

m to 9:

30 pm

9:30

pm to

10:00

pm

10:00

pm to

10:30

pm

10:30

pm to

11:00

pm

11:00

pm to

11:30

pm

11:30

pm to

12:00

am

After

12:00

am0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%

Work Departure Observed Work Departure EstimatedWork Arrival Observed Work Arrival Estimated

Initial

Shop Tour Departure TimeInitial

Befor

e 5 am

5:00 a

m to 5:

30 am

5:30 a

m to 6:

00 am

6:00 a

m to 6:

30 am

6:30 a

m to 7:

00 am

7:00 a

m to 7:

30 am

7:30 a

m to 8:

00 am

8:00 a

m to 8:3

0 am

8:30 a

m to 9:

00 am

9:00 a

m to 9:

30 am

9:30 a

m to 10

:00 am

10:00

am to

10:30

am

10:30

am to

11:00

am

11:00

am to

11:30

am

11:30

am to

12:00

pm

12:00

pm to

12:30

pm

12:30

pm to

1:00 p

m

1:00 p

m to 1:

30 pm

1:30 p

m to 2:

00 pm

2:00 p

m to 2:

30 pm

2:30 p

m to 3:0

0 pm

3:00 p

m to 3:

30 pm

3:30 p

m to 4:

00 pm

4:00 p

m to 4:

30 pm

4:30 p

m to 5:

00 pm

5:00 p

m to 5:

30 pm

5:30 p

m to 6:

00 pm

6:00 p

m to 6:

30 pm

6:30 p

m to 7:0

0 pm

7:00 p

m to 7:

30 pm

7:30 p

m to 8:

00 pm

8:00 p

m to 8:

30 pm

8:30 p

m to 9:

00 pm

9:00 p

m to 9:3

0 pm

9:30 p

m to 10

:00 pm

10:00

pm to

10:30

pm

10:30

pm to

11:00

pm

11:00

pm to

11:30

pm

11:30

pm to

12:00

am

After

12:00

am0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Shopping Departure Observed Shopping Departure Estimated

Shop Tour Departure Time

Befor

e 5 am

5:00

am to

5:30 a

m

5:30

am to

6:00

am

6:00

am to

6:30

am

6:30

am to

7:00

am

7:00

am to

7:30

am

7:30

am to

8:00

am

8:00

am to

8:30

am

8:30

am to

9:00

am

9:00

am to

9:30 a

m

9:30 a

m to 10

:00 am

10:00

am to

10:30

am

10:30

am to

11:00

am

11:00

am to

11:30

am

11:30

am to

12:00

pm

12:00

pm to

12:30

pm

12:30

pm to

1:00

pm

1:00

pm to

1:30

pm

1:30

pm to

2:00

pm

2:00

pm to

2:30

pm

2:30

pm to

3:00

pm

3:00

pm to

3:30

pm

3:30

pm to

4:00 p

m

4:00

pm to

4:30 p

m

4:30

pm to

5:00

pm

5:00

pm to

5:30

pm

5:30

pm to

6:00

pm

6:00

pm to

6:30

pm

6:30

pm to

7:00

pm

7:00

pm to

7:30

pm

7:30

pm to

8:00 p

m

8:00

pm to

8:30

pm

8:30

pm to

9:00

pm

9:00

pm to

9:30

pm

9:30 p

m to 10

:00 pm

10:00

pm to

10:30

pm

10:30

pm to

11:00

pm

11:00

pm to

11:30

pm

11:30

pm to

12:00

am

After

12:00

am0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Shopping Departure Observed Shopping Departure Estimated

Calibrated

Work Tour Mode ChoiceTarget Initial Estimate

auto sufficiency auto sufficiency

Tour Modeno

veh. insuf. suf. total no veh. insuf. suf. total

Drive-Alone 0% 49% 78% 67% 0% 51% 67% 60%Shared 2 13% 30% 13% 18% 24% 25% 17% 20%Shared 3+ 8% 11% 6% 8% 12% 13% 13% 13%Walk 11% 3% 0% 1% 31% 6% 1% 4%Bike 5% 1% 0% 0% 18% 2% 0% 1%Walk-Transit 62% 5% 1% 4% 15% 3% 1% 2%PNR-Transit 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%KNR-Transit 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Toll 13% 14%Local Bus 68% 51%Express Bus 5% 9%BRT 1% 13%Urban Rail 21% 23%Com Rail 5% 3%

Work Ahead

Finalize model calibration Validation to traffic counts and transit

boardings Future year forecast and sensitivity tests

Conclusions / Lessons Learned

SANDAG CT-RAMP ABM is able to reproduce most regional travel patterns in SE Florida

Largest differences between observed and initial model forecasts: non-mandatory tour location CDAP and tour frequency for college students, part-

time workers, pre-school children Modest constant adjustments sufficient to

calibrate the model

Conclusions / Lessons Learned

Supplemental data sources important to validate calibration targets and selected model outputs

Unable to observe transferability at high levels of disaggregation

Acknowledgments

Shi-Chiang Li, Florida DOT Paul Larsen, Palm Beach MPO Paul Flavien, Broward MPO Larry Foutz, HNTB (formerly Miami-Dade

MPO) Ken Kaltenbach, The Corradino Group Sung-Ryong Han, BCC Engineering Bill Davidson, Ben Stabler, Jinghua Xu

Questions?

Rosella PicadoParsons BrinckerhoffSeattle, WA

picado@pbworld.com | (206) 382-5227