ACE/RUS School and SymposiumCorralling the Broadband Stampede

How Has and Is the (Video) Network Traffic Changing?

Tom Lewis, PEVice President - Engineering

Presented By

Video Traffic Trends Are you in the video business? You are if 2/3rds of your Internet traffic is video Current and projected requirements for:

Managed IPTV (traditional Telco TV)

Unmanaged Internet Video

Planning for future, corralling the video stampede Capacity planning, impact on flat-rate Internet model

Managed IPTV Multicast SD and HD Historic Bandwidth requirements:

Backbone transport from Headend: 1Gbps or 2.5Gbps in past was adequate for avg SD/HD lineup

Access ~ 25Mbps minimum (2HD + SD + Internet)

Increased HD viewing primarily impacts Access To compete with satellite, need to be able to deliver 6

simultaneous HD channels = 48 Mbps + Internet

This requires VDSL2 or FTTP

Channel Lineup Multicast Bandwidth

How is IPTV traffic changing? New IPTV services require a significant amount of

bandwidth for unicast traffic such as: Video on Demand (VOD) Timeshifted Viewing (Network DVR for select channels) Microsoft Mediaroom Instant Channel Change (ICC)

Unicast Impact on Network Transport backbone: need 10GE Last Mile Access: Slight increase for ICC Distribution rings: How many subscribers can be served via a

single GE feed?

Estimated Traffic in a Mediaroom Network for 500 Homes

• This Conservative Model assumes the following– 500 Households– 70% of Households

watching TV– 10% of viewers

watching VOD– 5% of viewers watching

timeshifted content– 3% of viewers in fast

channel change

329 Mb/s

270 Mb/s

67 Mb/s

110 Mb/s

Total Traffic = 776 Mbps

Unicast

In a modern IPTV Network unicast video bandwidth usage can quickly outpace traditional multicast usage

Bandwidth Usage Versus Subscriber Counts

Internet Streaming Video We all know Internet Video traffic is exponentially

increasing, but the rate of change is difficult to grasp. Where does it end? Good Sources for Internet Video traffic statistics

Cisco Visual Networking Index

Calix U.S. Rural Broadband Q4 2011 Report

Internet Video Today Calix report findings for Q4 2011:

Video streaming accounted for 67% of downstream traffic, and providers with 100% FTTP saw 78%• Netflix is by far largest component, at least 2/3 of all video

For comparison, browsing accounted for 19% downstream P2P was only 1% 5% of users accounted for more than 50% of Internet traffic Fiber subs generate 2.67 times more traffic than DSL subs Average monthly download was 12 GB. Fiber average was 28.6 GB

per month.• Calix findings are consistent with N-Com’s recent analysis of

client’s traffic.

Sample Daily Aggregate Report from April 2012

10

Sample Internet Traffic Report Peak Usage around 9 PM. Peak usage is twice the average throughput.

Cisco 2011 VNI Report Busy Hour Internet traffic will grow 5-fold by 2015 vs

avg traffic growing 4-fold Peak traffic is 2.5 times the average throughput Globally streaming video accounts for 50% of

consumer Internet bandwidth, growing to 62% by 2015

Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 17-fold by 2015. Internet video to TV will be over 16 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2015, up from 7 percent in 2010.

Projecting Internet Video Growth

So where are we at on this roller coaster?

What percentage of subscribers are consuming Internet Video today?

From Calix report, 11% of subs generate 64% of traffic, more than 50GB monthly

Netflix movie ~ 2.5GB

Source: Calix

OTT Video Projection We are still very early in the OTT adoption curve If other 89% adopt OTT viewing pattern of today’s top 11%,

would result in approximately 6 times today’s traffic. In our analysis of client’s traffic, the average Netflix stream per

session is less than 1 Mbps. As more viewing takes place on TVs and/or subscribers upgrade broadband speeds, this will transition to the Netflix “best’ rate of around 2.2Mbps for non-HD content. So another growth factor of approximately 2 times.

So as a guestimate, OTT traffic could increase by 6 x 2 = 12 times over coming years. 12 x todays monthly average of 12GB gives a possible future average of 144 GB monthly.

But wait, there’s more…. OTT is just the initial phase. Over coming years the entire

video industry will transition from today’s CATV linear model to on-demand, “cloud TV”

According to Nielson, average individual American watches almost 5 hours of traditional TV every day, compared to 30 minutes of Internet video

Assume average home views 1.5 x 5 = 7.5 hours per day In future, a cloud TV home could require 7.5 x 30 = 225

hours/month x 2.3 GB/hr for HD = 517.5 GB/mo

And so we have Caps Comcast, AT&T Uverse, CenturyLink and Suddenlink are all examples of

providers that have implemented 250 GB monthly caps.

From the Comcast website: To put this usage in perspective, 250 GB is the equivalent of:

downloading 62,500 songs (173 days worth of music);

uploading more than 25,000 high-resolution photos; or

streaming between about 100 to 800 hours of video (the range depends upon whether you're streaming studio-quality video or good-quality, standard-definition video, which have different bit rates depending upon the provider).

Caps from non-landline broadband providers: Wildblue Exede plans max out at 25 GB

Verizon HomeFusion Fixed LTE service top plan is 30 GB – 24 hours of Netflix binge viewing

Possible Industry Initiatives Traffic growth must be linked to revenue growth Possible Measures or Mitigation Methods

Caps

1-800 model: content providers pay service provider to be cap-free

Subscriber usage based plans ($/MB)

Caching, or bring CDN provider into your network

Observations Key in sizing Internet uplinks is now the “primetime” 7

to 10 PM video viewing period. Maybe caps should only apply to downloads during these times?

In planning any network upgrades, have evolution path to ultimate future “cloud TV” bandwidth requirements. This needs to be considered in deciding between 1GE vs 10GE, 10GE vs WDM, etc.

OTT/Cloud TV impacts backhaul requirements, not Access network speeds. E.g., 200 subscribers each using 5 Mbps for video exhaust a single GE feed.

Conclusions We all watch way too much TV. Netflix growth rate

and Mayan prophecy connection? Begin routine monitoring of your Internet traffic

usage, track growth trends Have plans for gaining access to most economical

Internet uplink providers that can support growth Evaluate subscriber package modifications