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RECENT NOTABLE GANGS: THE GANG OF 14 Worked to avert “nuclear option” on Senate filibuster in 2005
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Ad-Hoc Policy Commissions in the Senate
MPSA 2013
Second Street Gangs
Kristen Coopie Allen Zachary James Auter
Ian Palmer CookUniversity of Pittsburgh
Jennifer Nicoll VictorGeorge Mason University
Bipartisan, ad-hoc, policy-specific coalitions with select membership, attempting to find a solution to a policy
problem
FIRST, OUR DEFINITION
RECENT NOTABLE GANGS: THE GANG OF 14
Worked to avert “nuclear option” on Senate filibuster in 2005
GANG OF 8, IMMIGRATION, AGAIN
Policy gangs are a preference discovery and aggregation mechanism Committees have failed to produce policy agreeable to the whole Senate
On contentious issues, committees may be representative of the chamber
Senators from outside the committees will have information about the chamber
But this does not explain why Senators may join
GANGS SIDESTEP THE COMMITTEE STRUCTURE (AND ALL ITS
PROBLEMS)
Gangs offer senators substantive & strategic advantage to policy negotiation
Greater policy expertise in relevant policy area and who have many connections to other senators on a given topic Operationalizing connectedness: Eigenvector Centrality in
Senate committee network
H1: Senators more central in the committee membership network are more likely to join a policy gang.
THEORY AND HYPOTHESES: CONNECTIONS TO OTHER
SENATORS
Major gangs have had even numbers, and not by chance
Gangs have no chairs doled out by party leadership as rewards or favors Gathering information on the other party’s preferences
requires collaborating on an even playing field A stalled policy issue that has been stalled and
gained enough prominence that a gang has formed to confront it sheds doubt on the possibility of the committee members representing the full range of the chamber’s views
H2: Ideological moderates are more likely to join gangs than ideological extremists.
THEORY AND HYPOTHESES:BIPARTISANSHIP
Publicity for gang membership has both positive and negative consequences
Party control over assets necessary for running in an election: breaking from the party line could be costly
But cost would be lessened the more secure the senator is in her seat
H3: The greater a senator’s vote share in their most recent reelection, the greater their likelihood of joining a gang.
H4: The more terms a senator has served, the more likely the senator is to join a gang.
THEORY AND HYPOTHESES: COSTS OF MEMBERSHIP
DV: Did a Senator join a gang or not? Pooled by Congressional session; not over time
Employ Rare Events Logit to account for small ratio of gang members in each Congress
Robust standard errorsPlot Predicted probability of joining gang
DATA AND METHODS
GANG OF 14
RESULTS
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pred
icte
d Pr
obab
ility
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Absolute Value of Senator Nominate Scores
Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
Probability of Joining Gang of 14 across Increasing Ideological Extremism
GANG OF 12 AND 20
RESULTS
0.2
.4.6
.8Pr
edic
ted
Prob
abili
ty
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Absolute Value of Senator Nominate Scores
Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
Probability of Joining 110th Congress Gang across Increasing Ideological Extremism
RESULTS
RESULTS
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pred
icte
d Pr
obab
ility
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Margin of Victory in Previous Election
Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI
Probability of Joining Gang of 6 across Increasing Electoral Security
Encouraging, but not confirmatory, results
Leaves us on the cusp of a decision, and we’re seeking feedback
Two alternatives, though not mutually exclusive in the long run
DISCUSSION
Need to increase the sample size by expanding the range of Congresses
Gather richer information on the gang members Employment history, previous shared committee
posts
Explore extensions: Use gang membership as an explanatory variable for
electoral success
1: EXPAND THE DATA AND ANALYSIS
More explicitly American Political Development-like
Expand the historical discussion of the gangs, include a wider range of examples, even when not specifically called “Gangs”
Pose hypotheses and expectations, but not challenges for study and data gathering
Highlight importance to policy issues
2: ENRICH CASES, DEMONSTRATE IMPORTANCE
GANG OF 14(PLAIN: COMMITTEE, BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC: GANG)
GANG OF 12(PLAIN: COMMITTEE, BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC: GANG)
GANG OF 6(PLAIN: COMMITTEE , BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC:
GANG)