AG Chartering Reportv3files.irwebpage.com › reports › shipping › 0vbkwB5MWe... · Crude Chartering Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 11/10/2012 This week the West

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Braemar Seascope Thursday, 11 October 2012

Market Indicator Wet* 10-Oct-12 Sep Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( U S $ / Da y ) TC E ( US $ / D a y ) TCE ( U S $ / Da y )

260,000 NHC AG/EAST TD3 -4,500 -2,500 11,500 8,000

130,000 NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 4,000 2,500 13,000 11,500

80,000 NHC NSEA/CONT TD7 3,500 2,500 7,500 12,000

55,000 CLN AG/JAPAN TC5 7,000 8,500 6,000 5,500

37,000 CLN CONT/USAC TC2 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,500

38,000 CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 5,000 4,500 8,000 10,500

* All rates based on benchmark Baltic Exchange speed and consumption f igures

Dry 10-Oct-12 Sep Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

BDI 875 707 907 1,549

BCI 1,775 1,342 1,440 2,237

BPI 784 526 992 1,749

BSI 787 839 954 1,377

Container 08-Oct-12 Sep Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

B O X i 54.90 55.58 56.21 86.13

Financial 10-Oct-12 Sep Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 114.10 113.19 112.25 110.65

IFO 380 ROTT US$/tonne 634.50 651.28 653.12 618.32

YEN/US$ 78.28 78.15 79.31 79.70

WON/US$ 1,114 1,124 1,132 1,107

US$/EURO 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.39

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 2

11/10/2012

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VLCC It’s an interesting quandary when your VLCC is ballasting via Singapore searching for its next employment. Do you head on a south westerly routing and set sail for West Africa? Do you head for the AG, or do you wait? Theoretically, we should start to see some seasonal increases in volumes and therefore shipping demand and rates, hence perhaps waiting is a good tactic. On the other hand, you could be waiting for a long time for significant improvement. If you head to West Africa you will probably get a better earning potential than the AG, however you will be booking your ship away for a long West Africa/China voyage while there is some potential increase in the market. Heading for the AG might be a better option right now for shipowners because although earnings are poor, a shorter AG/Eastern voyage might take just the correct amount of time to deliver the vessel into a stronger market. It might be all academic since there seems to be a constant supply of high quality tonnage, meaning that there is always more than sufficient tonnage available. Even cargoes left to fix at the very last minute can expect to pay market levels as they smoke out multiple spot VLCCs in the AG. This week, what has been surprising is that although AG/East cargoes have remained at 265kt x ws37.5 levels, AG/West fixtures have been relatively depressed, remaining at 280kt x ws23.0 via Cape and less via Suez Canal. Rates on the whole are flat but we certainly have seen fixtures concluded at less, especially for the AG/Eastbound voyages. West Africa has been interesting: just when owners think they have charterers in a corner they escape by diverting their own group controlled tonnage into position. Certainly, this happened for a West Africa/China voyage which was slow to fix and was running out of options loading at the end of October. It seems that charterers continue to hold all the cards right now, so even when steam starts to build up in the market there is always a Houdini act just around the corner. It was a quiet week from Indian charterers in the Atlantic, however an oil major did charter in tonnage at US$3.5m for West Africa/WC India off 20-21 October dates. The higher rate was paid due to the promptish nature of the cargo and extremely limited tonnage available on the dates. Reliance also had to pay a bit over the market when they fixed West Africa/WC India off early November dates at US$3.2m, due to the laycan being in a window where tonnage availability was tight. Essar and Reliance have begun fixing their Caribbean early November cargoes at US$2.9m levels. We are assessing West Africa/WC India at US$3.0m and West Africa/EC India at US$3.25m. The 30 day availability index shows 56 VLCCs arriving at Fujairah, of which six are over 15 years old. This compares to 44 counted last week. "Natural" fixing dates are now end-October/early-November, so we expect October stems to be fully covered by next week. With 98 fixtures counted so far, we can expect about 20 more, with almost twice the number ships counted for the same period. The freight rate for 280,000mt AG/USG is ws23.0, down ws0.5 points from last week. With bunker prices at US$650/tonne, up US$13.5/tonne, owners' earnings are: Round Trip Cape Laden/Suez Ballast US$-17,400/day (US$-16,300/day last week)* The freight rate for 270,000mt is ws37.0, up ws3.0 points from last week, making owners' earnings: Round Trip Ras Tanura/Ulsan US$275/day (US$-2,400/day last week)* *Obviously with slow steaming these daily earnings can be improved.

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD1 280,000 Ras Tanura LOOP ws23.5 ws23.5

TD2 265,000 Ras Tanura Singapore ws36.5 ws36.5

TD3 265,000 Ras Tanura Chiba ws36.0 ws36.0

TD4 260,000 Bonny LOOP ws42.5 ws44.5

TD15 260,000 West Africa China ws39.5 ws39.5

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11/10/2012

This week the West Africa market maintained itself at ws57.5 UKC-Med and ws55.0 USG for the most part. Differentials for Adriatic on one voyage came out at ws56.25. Come the end of the week, ws60.0 was fixed on a couple of occasions to UKC-Med, though this was in part fuelled by the charterer fixing off prompter dates on one of two cargoes. Activity levels have been relatively healthy but the position list has soaked most of it up. The list has been thinned out for October dates, so any leftover October stems may come up against some resistance. With plenty of ships able to make early November dates, expect there to be little volatility in the market over the next couple of weeks unless we see a concerted rise in the amount of cargoes. We are starting to see a change in the weather in the northern hemisphere, and this is starting to help the sentiment in the western markets. The balance in the tonnage list in West Africa needs some help from other influencing markets, however it looks difficult for this market to go down in the near future. The Black Sea market was relatively quiet, but 140kt x ws60.0 has been generally accepted as the market level. This at least represents an improvement of ws2.5 points (and five over the past two weeks). A short voyage to Constanza fetched US$700,000, which is similar to what it was a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean was the busy, but ironically was also the market that suffered a drop. There was very little done cross-Med, a fixture at ws62.5 on a Ceyhan/Fos representing the sterility of the market, while several trans-Atlantic fixtures followed suit. Where USG initially remained at last week's ws52.5, it later fell off with ws52.5 fixed basis USAC, followed by a 135kt x ws47.5 USG. An early, promptish replacement fixture to the Far East at US$3.25m showed a bit of improvement but did nothing to influence the market, with UKC/Singapore fixed at US$2.7m and US$2.9m (from the Baltic) falling off further to US$2.5m off promptish dates. Meanwhile, US$2.7m Med/Singapore failed. It is fair to say there is still a healthy position list but there is pressure coming from the delays in various Mediterranean ports, and the possibility of increased delays in the Turkish Straits. As with West Africa, the Med/Black Sea market looks like there is no downside currently, owners will be hoping there is an upside. In the AG, a ws71.25 to Singapore and ws75.0 EC India fell off somewhat towards the end of the week. Ws72.25 and ws73.0 were fixed to WC India and in summary, these rates going east differed little from last week's. Those headed west appeared to be dropping off last week's ws45.0 level, with 145kt x ws43.5 initially fixed only to be usurped by a 140kt x ws44.0 Basrah loading fixture. The position list is, much like the other markets, well-populated off natural dates, however some cargoes left a little bit late by charterers are meeting resistance. Peeling back the layers of lower quality ships reveals a shorter list, with only a couple of vessels lying open in the AG. As such, there should not be a great deal of change to rates immediately, but it would be a surprise to see the market come off any further.

Suezmax

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment

TD5 130,000 Bonny Philadelphia ws57.5

TD6 135,000 Novorossiysk Augusta ws62.5

135,000 Mediterranean UK Cont ws60.0

135,000 North Sea US Gulf ws50.0

Last Week’s Average

ws57.5

ws62.5

ws60.0

ws52.5

135,000 Ras Tanura South East Asia ws73.0 ws73.0


11/10/2012

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Aframax

Baltic Aframaxes have seen a good level of activity this week, though owners were unable to force freight rates to move upwards. Primorsk and Ust-Luga stems have been well in advance now, up to as late as 27th October. It's only a matter of time until rates do make a movement back upwards, but next week may be slightly too early for this. There has been minimal cross-North Sea activity this week; anything which has been done was covered at conference levels (i.e. 80kt x ws85.0). This week in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, it was a slow start in terms of enquiry. Owners were waiting patiently but demand was sparse. Fortunately for them, interest has picked up from the charterers' side and activity has increased. However, on the whole this has evened out the general sentiment, and consequently rates have overall remained the same as the week before - 80kt x ws75.0 for a standard cross-Med voyage, and ws77.5 ex-Black Sea. On the surface there was not a great deal of change on the Aframaxes in the eastern hemisphere and rates remained steady by and large. Activity levels out of the AG were subdued and fuel oil trades favoured the MRs, particularly from the Indian subcontinent, with TD8 flat at about ws112.5, giving a TCE of about US$12,000/day. A similar story unfolded in the Far East, with Indo/Up rates steady at about ws97.5 while NW Shelf backhauls to Singapore proved more resilient due a lack of natural tonnage in position and estimated at about ws90.0. However, some positive sentiment permeates the market with refinery maintenance programmes drawing to an end and the tonnage list thinning slightly in the Far East. Sinopec have broken ground on one of the largest oil storage terminals in the world off Batam, capable of storing 16m bbls of crude and products, although we are uncertain of when it is due for completion.


TD7 80,000 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven ws85.0 ws85.0

TD8 80,000 Mina Al Ahmadi Singapore ws112.5 ws112.5

TD9 70,000 Puerto La Cruz Corpus Christi ws87.5 ws88.5

TD14 80,000 Seria Sydney ws95.0 ws95.5

TD17 100,000 Primorsk Wilhelmshaven ws57.5 ws57.0

TD19 80,000 Ceyhan Lavera ws77.5 ws77.5


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11/10/2012

Although the LR2s have had a quiet week in terms of the activity and fixing, we've seen a couple of significant fixtures: one to the East bringing levels back up above ws100.0 to ws102.5, and another to the West which puts another US$50,000 on last done WCI/UKC, bringing levels up to US$2.675m. Owners’ confidence remains high that they can continue this trend – or at least maintain these levels. There are a few enquires for November dates, but we should see more activity for these dates next week after the ARAMCO naphtha awards have been made. In the meantime, the LR1s have enjoyed a much busier week than possibly any other this year. Certainly, the recent drop in rates has been stopped and reversed, and although rates have only crept back up to ws112.5, the remaining prompt ships are pushing hard for increased levels either inter-regional or for east or western destinations. It’s been an interesting week for MRs in the AG. The market has been very active, especially in the last 48 hours with charterers looking to cover a hefty list of cargoes prior to the 20th. With little to no ships available prompt on, we've seen US$1.7m put on subs AG/UKC today, a peak rate for the year, and another driving force for an already frenzied market. TC12 continues its rise, with 35kt x ws145.0 on subs off 26-27 dates; a by-product of the continued absence of Korean tonnage in the area. AG/East Africa runs have improved, 35kt x ws212.5 is on subs off promptish dates, which combined with the standard US$150,000 lump sum piracy payment, makes owners’ round trip earnings start to look pretty decent. Sentiment is firm, and there are still many cargoes to fix in the third decade. With so many ships fixed into Iraq recently, the inevitable delays will very much lessen the pool of ships for charterers to choose from, and thus, next week looks like it will pick up where it has left off this week.

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Clean Products - East


TC1 75,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws102.5 ws101.5

TC5 55,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws110.0 ws110.0

TC4 30,000 Singapore Chiba ws140.0 ws136.5

TC12 35,000 WC India Japan ws140.5 ws139.0


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Clean Products - West


TC2 37,000 Rotterdam New York ws125.0 ws128.0

TC3 38,000 Aruba New York ws110.0 ws110.0

TC6 30,000 Skikda Lavera ws165.0 ws163.5

On the Continent for MRs, TC2 rates have softened down to 37kt UMS x ws125.0 levels. Some antagonists might well think less will be done soon, as enquiry is simply not there for gasoline or, more importantly, its components ex-UKC. Refinery turnarounds such as Pembroke are still evident and papers’ low expectation over the next few months, with selling activity on the paper yesterday saw October and November both sold at ws124.0 respectively, with November being supported on the bid afterwards, December remains around ws135.0/ws136.0 levels. Q1 2013 was trading at US$20.25/tonne. Handies on the Continent are a bit more lively, however this just seems to be mopping tonnage up rather than moving rates. PMI and Petrobras have been busy (some ex.Med) and this input has kept rates from crashing rather than gradually softening. The Mediterranean remains busy with plenty of cargoes and tonnage maintaining its short nature over the last few

weeks. Sonatrach force majeured four naphtha cargoes recently which may add tonnage back on the list. Currently,

rates remain firm at 30kt x ws170.0 for cross-Med and ws180.0 for Black Sea to the Med. Expectation is for this to

continue.

Stateside slow activity and low refinery utilization in the U.S with backwardation in the New York Harbour market is not encouraging any more volume to be added; however, currently it maintains its very own status quo with backhaul at ws80.0 and Caribs up at ws110.0 and USG Brazil/Argentina at ws140.0.

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A volatile week for Capes as rates declined, however, there was significant activity to see the market turn. The Atlantic remains relatively quiet as cargoes remain thin on the ground. A disappointing Monday as US$8.70/tonne was fixed despite the firm sentiment left over from the previous week. Rates continued to soften as charterers managed to push the market down to US$8.30/tonne for West Australian R/V. Despite the lower rates there was still plenty of activity in the market, this gave owners the impetus to refuse lower than last done and regain some of the ground that was lost, with the market currently fixing at around mid 8's (the index currently stands at US$11,282 daily). One would hope that this positive sentiment can be maintained into next week and see rates either hold or improve. Whilst there has been more coal activity, there have been strikes in Saldanha Bay holding back South African iron ore exports. The Atlantic has been less active, with TA in particular flagging still. Tubarao / Qingdao rates are down on last week, but with Brazil seemingly exporting at full capacity there seems plenty of support. At time of writing, the TA R/V index stands at US$83,664, whilst the fronthaul index has slipped to US$26,854 with Tubarao / Qingdao fixing around the mid US$21's.

Capesize

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11/10/2012

A positive trend from the previous week has extended its run into this week's trade in the Atlantic. Rate levels have been much firmer, which was supported by an injection of fresh trans-Atlantic coal cargoes for end October to early November dates, and some are claiming that low US$7,000/day levels are being traded for trips out of the US Gulf to Skaw-Passero range. Front haul grain rates have also seen a healthy improvement and owners now pushing to breach US$16,000/day + US$600,000 BB levels. The forward grain voyage freights offered from grain houses have been slow to react to recent increases in time charter hire rates. However, this may change as more operators start to offer their grain re-let cargoes at higher levels in order to lock in their profits and unwind their positions. The Pacific has, like the Atlantic, responded positively this week with paper pushing ahead of the physical market. A few longer period fixtures have been reported with spreads of 11-18 months at around US$8,000/day for newbuild Kamsarmaxes, which in itself is not showing signs of recovery. In the short term, rates have appeared to be firming with especially NoPac rounds improving, thus still fixed on APS basis. The market continues to be driven by Indonesian coal to China and India and it looks sufficiently supported to push up rates further well into next week.


Panamax

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The Continent market appears fairly steady at the moment with requirements to both east coast South America with fertiliser and scrap

to the East Mediterranean. Rates hovering in and around the US$12,000/day to 12,500/day mark for scrap cargoes, and lower

US$5,000/day for cargo to the east coast of South America for the Supramax sizes. On the smaller size types business is proving

harder to come by with lots of competition for cargo's, and as result few vessels sitting spot, with some rating US$7,000/day for round

trip with coal.

Spot tonnages are slowly being cleared as they are snatched up forward business as they come. Mid-end October seems more

promising but the sentiment is not there to provide a positive drive in the market. The area is seeing cargoes of iron ore, petcoke,

scrap to Atlantic ports and to the Far East. An economical 57kt dwt ship achieved US$18,500/day levels to the Far East, which was

considered impressive. A more thirsty ship has earned US$16,000/day for grains going in the Far East direction. Owners are still

reluctant to market their tonnage while traders are seeing plenty to choose from. Quite a Few front haul stems cooking in the US Gulf

but not much has materialised, the same scenario continues in to next week.

Handy market in the Far East has not seen improvement in the last week. Australia round voyages have been paying in the low to mid

US$7,000/day and short period charters are at around US$7,500/day.

Plenty of Indonesia to India coal stems in the market this week but with the ever present tonnage supply to match, however a slight

improvement in rates. Supramax owners are trying boldly at US$11,500/day for Indonesia/India coal trip basis delivery passing

Singapore, despite pressure from charterers rating Supramax types at closer to US$9,000/day. This week, the ship owners seem to be

holding their ground and achieving closer to their levels, the lack of nickel ore cargoes in the market is causing this. In the North

pacific, after the rush for fixing before golden week and a very quiet week that followed, there was marginally more activity this week

with rumours of a Japanese built Supramax fixing NOPAC round voyage at US$9,000/day + US$350,000 bb bss aps.

Owners noted their frustration this week as orders continued to pop into the market and vanish again having proven ‘unfirm’. However,

the market condition precludes them from doing a great deal about it as orders remain in short supply and the tonnage market over

supplied. Charterers have the option to pick and choose the vessel they want. Business ex-ECSA to Atlantic North Africa was quoted

on a Supramax at a misery US$7,000/day aps, yet was circulated and fixed in a day. Voyage business with sugar cargo have idea

levels for 50k min/max showed TCE returns of around US$11,000/day to US$11,500/day dop south Brazil for Santos loading for Israel

discharge.

Short duration coastal business ex Santos with metcoke was getting numbers around US$7,000/day to US$8,000/day aps out of

Handymax and owners of Supramax with Interest in the trip as a means of holding them over in employment until the start of

November found themselves unable to compete, with their figures remaining in the low teens. Also in the market report was the 55kt

dwt fixture for coastal business ex –Iaquai to Trinidad at US$8,500/day dop with an option for 2nd coastal voyage. A rate of US$8,250/

day was shown to a mid-1990s build TESS 45 type open spot West Africa for 2/3ll with redelivery Atlantic, the problem? It was for aps

Atlantic Columbia. Most depressing of all however remains reports of a Handymax that took a piece of voyage business ex West

Africa to China at a rate that showed a TCE of around US$6,000/day aps.

Quoted fronthaul levels for an ‘eco’ Supramax were at US$13,000/day + US$300,000 bb, although the best reported fixture on the

market, Bunge/Cargill, went on a similar Japanese type at US$12.5,000/day + US$250,000 bb. For less economical Vessels the

number hovers in and around US$12,000/day + US$200,000 bb.

Situation has remained unchanged in the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf arena. Limestone trips ex-Arabian Gulf to India are being

concluded at US$7,000/day levels Basis AG delivery. Iron ore activity remains downsized. On RBCT coal front traders still prefer to

move cargoes basis Panamax/Capesize liftings hence Supramax parcels are rather scarce on spot basis. Short period fixtures have

been reported being concluded at around US$8,000/day to US$8,500/day levels.

Handy/Handymax/Supramax


11/10/2012

CBH Grain 2012/13 harvest Western Australia’s CBH Grain says that it expects the delivery of wheat and other grains to its facilities during the present harvest could be as low as 9.1m tonnes, much lower than last year’s record 15m tonnes.

Coking coal imports to India expected to treble By 2016/17, coking coal imports to India are expected to increase to around 100m tonnes from the current 30/35m tonnes per year . This would result in new port infrastructure developments, with India planning to invest about US$1.0 trillion in infrastructure during the five year plan period from April 2012 to March 2017. It has been estimated that this would generate between 200m and 250m tonnes of steel demand. Crude steel output in China falls CISA (China Iron & Steel Association) has reported that the average daily crude steel output fell to 1.843m tonnes from Sept 21-30, down 0.74% from the previous ten days.

GVK/Hancock gets environmental approval India's GVK Power and Infrastructure cleared a major hurdle for a US$10.2 billion coal project in Australia, winning federal government approval for the construction of a new export terminal in Queensland State. This allows GVK and its Australian partner, Hancock Coal, to expand the port of Abbot Point for the planned Alpha coal project. The project is now awaiting a mining lease from the state. The Alpha project in the Galilee Basin in Queensland has a mine life of more than 30 years and would produce 32m tonnes a year, with its first output targeted for early 2016. Anketell port in doubt Aquila Resources' plan to build a major iron ore project in the Pilbara has suffered a setback with cost estimates blowing out by $1.4 billion and making the plan to build a new iron ore port at Anketell appear less viable.

China’s copper consumption down A recent report has suggested that China's copper consumption will contract this year by about 8.5% to 5.6m tonnes, the first drop since 2008. Falling demand and climbing inventories are the cause. However, next year it is predicted usage will rebound and grow 5.6% to 5.9m tonnes. Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 162,547 tonnes in the week to Sept 27, about 66% above a year earlier. Batam to host SE Asia’s largest oil storage terminal Sinopec Group, China's biggest refiner and second-biggest oil producer, is building what experts predict will become the largest oil storage terminal in SE Asia, in the Batam free trade zone in Indonesia. The US$850m PT West Point Terminal project will include a 2.6m cubic metre oil storage facility capable of storing up to 16m bbls of crude and refined fuels, and the construction of extensive port facilities. Taking 18 to 24 months to complete, the project has about 360 hectares of land set aside for it. A refinery and petrochemical project are also being considered in a second phase of development.

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Asia / Australia News

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11/10/2012


It has been another week disrupted by various public holidays, something the market could do without in its current delicate state. Fixing rates have gently hovered around last done and as a result the BOXi too has plateaued, for this week at least. Rumours continue to circulate regarding deals being close to conclusion on a number of 8,000teu+ units, with one operator thought to now be close to securing a number of 8,500teu vessels for their services. Elsewhere, various operators remain open with possibilities to sublet similar large tonnage currently being removed from their own services as part of recent capacity reduction strategies. However, with many operators working on similar plans, any takers for such additional capacity remain limited. Otherwise, the majority of the (limited) fixing activity has been in the feeder sectors, with little change to the market theme - a series of extensions and short or flexible periods. While charter rates here and in the other sectors have remained relatively steady, the increasing build-up of tonnage – brought about by operators trimming capacity towards the end of the year – can unfortunately only really point to a further erosion of rates if owners really do want to fight for the limited employment available. With attempts to limit capacity in order to maintain current freight rates struggling, the operators are again looking, somewhat hopefully, towards further general rate increases to fill the void left by the recent drop-off in volumes, but well founded doubts about their success to implement these increases could signal further fraught times ahead for lines and owners alike.

Containers

Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Gear Speed Knots Index + / -510/285 Gearless 15.5 3.61 ► 0.00

700/440 Gearless 17.5 4.00 ► 0.00

750/415 Geared 16.0 4.71 ► 0.00

1000/650 Geared 17.5 5.00 ► 0.00

1100/715 Geared 20.0 5.94 ► 0.00

1350/925 Geared 20.0 4.19 ► 0.00

1600/1150 Gearless 18.0 5.19 ► 0.00

1700/1125 Geared 19.5 4.69 ► 0.00

1740/1300 Geared 20.5 4.84 ► 0.00

2000/1600 Geared 21.0 1.91 ► 0.00

2500/1900 Geared 22.0 3.41 ► 0.00

2800/2000 Gearless 22.0 3.02 ► 0.00

3500/2500 Gearless 23.0 2.31 ► 0.00

4250/2800 Gearless 24.0 2.08 ► 0.00

Index Total 54.90 ► 0.00

Documents

AG Chartering Reportv3files.irwebpage.com › reports › shipping › 0vbkwB5MWe... · Crude Chartering Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 11/10/2012 This week the West