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MICA (P) 110/09/2006
Manager’s Commentary As of November/December 2009. Source: PineBridge Investments
Now that the global recovery is firmly underway, it is worth looking at the differential growth momentum across the major economic areas and the growthprospects for next year. The recession was fairly synchronous around the world and, with few exceptions, most economies started down the road to recoverythis summer.
Once central banks successfully stabilized banking systems around the world, massive fiscal stimulus packages triggered a rebound in GDP growth.However, the euphoria about the resumption of growth is balanced by concerns about fiscal deficits and an overly expansionary monetary policy.
Stock markets around the world reacted predictably to the improving outlook and the 2009 rally is extending right into year-end. Global equity markets addedanother 3% in November, with little difference between developed and emerging markets.
Stunningly, the U.S. was the best performing developed region, even outperforming most of Asia. Faster growing economies, such as Australia and Japan,generated less impressive returns. In fact, Japan was the only major market posting a loss in November.
Meanwhile, the rally in government bond markets continued. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to 3.20% and 3-month Treasury Bill yields briefly droppedto 0% during the month, before settling back at a paltry 5 basis points. By no means was the rally confined to the United States. Eurozone-bondyields remain below those in the U.S, while 10-year yields in Japan are once again approaching the lows of the recession. Most surprising, though,was the strong rally in Australian government bonds, despite, or maybe because of, the Reserve Bank of Australia's early anti-inflationary stance.
Another facet of the broad rally in financial markets is the ongoing dollar weakness. The trade-weighted dollar index is down more than 15% from itsMarch peak and is rapidly approaching the lows of last May. Simultaneously, commodity prices continue to trend higher. Gold prices surged more than13% last month and have traded above $1,000 now for seven straight weeks. Another star performer this year is Copper, which is up almost 130% fromthe end of last year.
The broadening recovery is providing solid macro support for the recent rebound in financial markets. The improvement in forecast estimates is stillimpressive. The OECD last month doubled its forecasts for 2010 global growth from a very cautious 0.9% to a much more constructive 1.9%. Our ownforecasts had been far ahead of the consensus earlier in the year, but the consensus has now caught up with us.
Equity market earnings revisions are also still improving. Hence, we maintain our very bullish equity market allocation, with a significant overweight inemerging markets. In our bond portfolios, we are overriding our more bearish medium-term outlook, expecting the current surge in Treasuries to carry intoyear-end.
Investment Objective
To seek long term capital growth through investment in equities, bonds andother fixed income securities in global markets.
Investment Strategy
The fund adopts a relatively balanced approach towards equities and bondsexposure with the aim of achieving capital growth with lower short termvolatility than is normally associated with a pure equity fund. It does this bycurrently investing in AIG US Large Cap Research Enhanced Fund,AIG Japan New Horizon Fund, AIG International Funds - Singapore BondFund, Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund, Fidelity Funds - European AggressiveFund and Fidelity Funds - International Bond Fund II.
Key Fund Fact
Launch Date11 December 2000
Launch PriceS$ 1.000
Manager of ILP FundAIG Global Investment Corporation(Singapore) Limited
Sales Charge (For Cash and SRS)5% (included in bid-offer spread)
Sales Charge (For CPF OA or SA)3%
Pricing FrequencyDaily
SubscriptionCash, CPF (OA & SA) and SRS
Management Fees1.50% p.a. of Net Asset Value
BidS$ 0.879 as of 30 Nov 2009
OfferS$ 0.926 as of 30 Nov 2009
Fund SizeS$ 200.1m as of 30 Nov 2009
January 2010
AIA Global Balanced Fund
AIA.COM.SG
The Power of We
Manager’s Commentary (Continued)
The Underlying Investments
* Sources: AIG Global Investment Fund Management Limited, AIG Global Investment Corporation (Singapore) Limited, Aberdeen Asset Management AsiaLimited & Fidelity Fund Management Limited
^^ The underlying fund is not authorised for public sale in Singapore. The name of the underlying fund was changed from Aberdeen Global -IndiaOpportunities Fund to Aberdeen Global - Indian Equity Fund with effect from 1 October 2008
^ As of 30 September 2009Note: The Top five holdings for Fidelity Funds - European Aggressive Fund and Fidelity Funds International Bond Fund II will be updated on quarterly basis.
2 AIA Global Balanced Fund
AIG US Large Cap Research Enhanced Fund
Investment Manager:AIG Global Investment Corporation
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 November 2009)
Holding (%)Exxon Mobil Corp (US) 4.8Apple Computer Inc (US) 2.9Intl Business Machines Corp (US) 2.7AT&T Inc (US) 2.7Google Inc (US) 2.5____________________________________________________________Total 15.6%
AIG Japan New Horizon Fund
Investment Manager:AIG Investments Japan Co., Ltd
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 November 2009)
Holding (%)Honda Motor Co (JP) 4.1East Japan Railway Co (JP) 3.8Mitsubishi Corp (JP) 3.7Nidec Corporation (JP) 3.6Kubota Corp (JP) 3.4____________________________________________________________Total 18.6%
AIGIF Singapore Bond Fund
Investment Manager:AIG Global Investment Corporation (Singapore)Limited
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 November 2009)
Holding (%)DBS Cap Funding 5.75% 29May2049 6.73Standard Chartered Bank 5.25% 10Apr2023 6.64Capitamall Trust 3.93OCBC Capital Corp 5.1% 29 Aug 2049 3.64OCBC 3.78% 28Nov2017 3.54____________________________________________________________Total 24.48%
Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund
Investment Manager:Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 November 2009)
Holding (%)AG - Indian Equity Fund^^ 10.0Aberdeen Singapore Equity Fund 9.5Aberdeen China Opportunities Fund 9.5Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund 7.6Aberdeen Thailand Equity Fund 6.0____________________________________________________________Total 42.6%
Fidelity Funds - European Aggressive Fund ^
Investment Manager:Fidelity Fund Management Limited
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 September 2009)
Holding (%)BANCO SANTANDER 2.90NESTLE (REGD) 2.60TELEFONICA 2.60ROCHE HOLDINGS 2.30BNP PARIBAS 2.20____________________________________________________________Total 12.60%
Fidelity Funds - International Bond Fund II ^
Investment Manager:Fidelity Fund Management Limited
Top Five Holdings* (As of 30 September 2009)
Holding (%)RECV UBSD IRS 1.455% 19/06/2011 15.10RECV JPSW IRS 4.321% 09/01/2013 12.80FINLAND 3.875% 15/09/2017 6.10GERMANY 4.75% 04/07/2040 08 2.90UK GILT 2.25% 07/03/2014 2.70____________________________________________________________Total 39.6%
Next year's investment strategy will depend on the actions of central bankers in general and the Federal Reserve in particular. We have been warningagainst the risk of a liquidity bubble for a few months now. Fundamental progress has been sufficient enough to support the rally in risk assets. However,looking at the breadth of the current rally, which includes stocks, bonds and gold, I remain concerned that investors will react nervously to the beginningof liquidity withdrawal and the normalization of interest rates. It seems a fair call to remain bullish on most asset classes into the end of the year. For2010, I would start with a more cautious stance awaiting clarification on the timing of the Fed's exit strategy and the market reaction to it.
Asset Allocation As of 30 November 2009. Source: AIA
Performance Indicator Offer-to-bid**, net dividends reinvested, SGD, from Inception to 30 November 2009. Source: AIA
AIA Global Balanced Fund 3
Period 1 Year 3 Year^ 5 Year^ SinceInception^
Fund (bid-to-bid) 16.12% -6.14% -1.08% -0.86%Fund (offer-to-bid**) 10.29% -7.73% -2.09% -1.43%Benchmark 13.64% -4.09% -0.42% 0.59%
Note: Performance of the fund is in SGD without taking into considerationthe fees and charges payable through deduction of premium or cancellationof units and with net dividends reinvested.^ Annualised returns# Current benchmark: 60% MSCI World Index & 40% Citigroup World Govt
Bond Index (The combined benchmark is reflective of the fund’s investmentfocus)
** Taking into account 5% sales charge
Price
Inde
xed
AIA Global Balanced Fund --- Benchmark#
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Dec-
00Ap
r-01
Apr-0
2De
c-01
Dec-
02
Apr-0
4
Aug-
01
Aug-
02
Aug-
03De
c-03
Aug-
04De
c-04
Apr-0
5Au
g-05
Dec-
05Ap
r-06
Aug-
06De
c-06
Apr-0
7Au
g-07
Dec-
07Ap
r-08
Aug-
08De
c-08
Apr-0
9
Apr-0
3
Singapore Bonds 22.42%
Asian Equities 0.70%
European Equities 18.38%
US Equities 34.36%Global Bonds 17.67%
Japan Equities 5.93% Cash 0.54%
1 Robinson Road, AIA Tower, Singapore 048542 Monday - Friday: 8.45am - 5.30pm AIA Customer Care Hotline: 1800 248 8000 AIA.COM.SG
The AIA Global Balanced Fund is an investment-linked policy (ILP) fund offered by American International Assurance Company, Limited (AIA) and is onlyavailable under AIA Investment-Linked Policies. AIA is the product provider. This fact sheet is prepared by AIA and the information presented is for informationaluse only. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance, as well as the prediction,projection or forecast on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likelyperformance of the ILP fund. The performance of the ILP fund is not guaranteed and the value of the units in the ILP fund and the income accruing to theunits, if any, may fall or rise. A product summary relating to the ILP fund is available and may be obtained from your AIA Financial Services Consultant. Apotential investor should read the product summary before deciding whether to subscribe for units in the ILP fund. AIA does not warrant or make anyrepresentations regarding the use or the results of the use of the figures generated in terms of their correctness, accuracy, reliability, or otherwise.
Aug-
09