Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-33

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-33

I hereby declare jihad on all levels to be an individual duty for every Muslim, -- Muhammad Kurayyim Rajih, the most senior Syrian Koran reciter and a member of the Syrian Islamic Council,

Growing terrorist activity and the merging of radical groups with transnational organized crime present a particular danger today. The situation in the Middle East and North Africa raises extreme concern. Terrorists are attempting to use this region as a springboard, are recruiting and training new militants, who may be used to destabilize other states,” Putin

Qatar has ordered the members of the leadership council of Ahrar al-Sham to expel the militant group's military commander after the change in the balance of power in favor of the Syrian government that took place in the aftermath of Russian airstrikes, media reports said.

Al-Qaeda's black flag has been seen flying over several official buildings in Yemen's second city Aden as the militants have made inroads in the absence of state authority and with the country mired in conflict. Elsewhere in southern Yemen, al-Qaeda has had control of Mukalla, Yemen's third largest port and capital of Hadramawt province, since April.

Thus far, however, the Islamic State’s anti-al Qaeda push in East Africa has had little success.

By way of comparison, the Islamic State has yet to claim a single attack in Somalia, although it may do so in the near future. And while the “caliphate” may very well announce a wilayat (or province) in East Africa, there is no reason to believe, absent significant defections, that it will be nearly as strong as Shabaab.

All of this means that the Islamic State has to overcome Shabaab’s role in al Qaeda’s international network in order to spawn a new “province” for the “caliphate” in East Africa. Shabaab is not making it easy.

Anything that protects the Syrian people and Syria from partition, we will not spare any effort to carry it out with our Saudi and Turkish brothers, no matter what this is,” Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid al-Attiyah told CNN on Wednesday, when asked if he supported Saudi Arabia’s position of not ruling out a military option. “If a military intervention will protect the Syrian people from the brutality of the regime, we will do it,” he added, according to Qatar’s state news agency QNA.

Oct 29, 2015 Putin: Terrorists Using Middle East, Africa as Springboard for ExpansionTEHRAN (FNA)- Terrorists may be preparing to expand their violence to other states, the Russian president warned. Terrorists are attempting to use the Middle East and North Africa as a springboard to destabilize other countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday. “Growing terrorist activity and the merging of radical groups with transnational organized crime present a particular danger today. The situation in the Middle East and North Africa raises extreme concern. Terrorists are attempting to use this region as a springboard, are recruiting and training new militants, who may be used

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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to destabilize other states,” Putin said during a security session with the special services from the Commonwealth of Independent States.

TEHRAN (FNA)- No country in the world is capable of fighting against terrorism effectively enough on its own, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the heads of CIS special services on Wednesday. "No country is capable of fighting against organized crime and terrorism effectively as long as it acts on its own," Putin said, Itar-Tass reported. He recalled that "threats in the world are not getting fewer," and stated that the situation is getting worse, as the old-time threats are being complemented by new ones. In particular, Putin drew attention to the complicated situations in Afghanistan and the Middle East. "Without effective efforts by your services our countries will be unable to develop," Putin told the heads of CIS special services. He described such meetings of CIS security services as very important and urged better coordination of their efforts.

Qatar Threatens Military Intervention in Syria in Support of Al Qaeda RebelsBy SputnikGlobal Research, October 22, 2015Qatar which has been a major sponsor of jihadist groups fighting in Syria for years, now is actively considering a direct military intervention in the country, according to its officials. Throughout Syria’s bloody civil war, the government of Qatar has been an active supporter of anti-government militants, providing arms and financial backing to so called “rebels.” Many of these, like the al-Nusra Front, were directly linked to al-Qaeda. That strategy has, of course, done little to put a dent in terrorist organizations in the region. But as Russia enters its fourth week of anti-terror airstrikes, Qatar has indicated that it may launch a military campaign of its own. “Anything that protects the Syrian people and Syria from partition, we will not spare any effort to carry it out with our Saudi and Turkish brothers, no matter what this is,” Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid al-Attiyah told CNN on Wednesday, when asked if he supported Saudi Arabia’s position of not ruling out a military option.“If a military intervention will protect the Syrian people from the brutality of the regime, we will do it,” he added, according to Qatar’s state news agency QNA.Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad was fast to warn the Middle Eastern monarchy that such a move would be a disastrous mistake with serious consequences.“If Qatar carries out its threat to militarily intervene in Syria, then we will consider this a direct aggression,” he said, according to al-Mayadeen television. “Our response will be very harsh.” Still, Attiyah stressed that Qatar is also considering a more diplomatic solution to the crisis in Syria. “We do not fear any confrontation, and thus we will call for dialogue from a position of strength because we believe in peace and the shortest path to peace is through direct dialogue,” he told CNN.In its own campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State terrorist group, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that maintaining the legitimate Syrian government is the only way to stabilize the region. Foreign intervention in toppling Middle Eastern governments is largely to blame for the rise of IS in the first place, and support for “moderate” rebels only fuels that chaos.Earlier on Wednesday, Russian parliamentary speaker Valentina Matvienko stressed that Moscow and Damascus are open to expanding diplomatic dialogue with other interested





parties. “We will be glad if this dialogue will be joined by other participants, because there is no military solution to the conflict [in Syria],” she told reporters.

TEHRAN (FNA 29 Oct )- Qatar has ordered the members of the leadership council of Ahrar al-Sham to expel the militant group's military commander after the change in the balance of power in favor of the Syrian government that took place in the aftermath of Russian airstrikes, media reports said. "Ahrar al-Sham's senior commander Abu Saleh al-Tahan will be ousted at the order of the Qatari government, the Arabic-language Al-Safir newspaper quoted an informed source close to Ahrar al-Sham as saying on Wednesday.The source reiterated that the differences among Ahrar al-Sham's senior commanders have intensified while he did not mention the reason for Qatar's decision to order the change in Ahrar al-Sham's top ranks. The decision by Qatar to bring about changes in Ahrar al-Sham's leadership came after the radical commanders of Ahrar al-Sham refrained to comply with Qatari Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiyah who had warned that Ahrar al-Sham should not form a coalition with Al-Qaeda and set up a joint operation room with Al-Nusra Front, an Al-Qaeda offshoot, the paper wrote. The decision by Qatar came after sources close to Ahrar al-Sham earlier this month disclosed that Turkey had ordered the Takfiri terrorist group to join the Al-Nusra Front as militants' conditions are deteriorating in Syria. "Over 200 Ahrar al-Sham terrorists have joined Al-Nusra Front in the past three days, but only 13 of them have acknowledged," the Arabic-language Al-Watan newspaper quoted an Ahrar al-Sham source as saying.The terrorist groups in Idlib province are currently joining Al-Nusra Front due to the extensive support rendered to the terrorist group by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. The Turkish government had ordered the groups known as Fath Idlib (Conquer of Idlib) to express allegiance to Al-Nusra Front. The Turkish government's order to the terrorist groups in Idlib came after they Russian airstrikes inflicted heavy losses on them. Local sources in Idlib province said that a large number of the militants have flocked to Jisr al-Shughour to leave the Syrian territories and go to Turkey to save their lives after sustaining heavy casualties in the Russian airstrikes since September 30. The sources said that scores of militants in border province of Idlib have chosen Jisr al-Shughour as one of the nearest paths towards the Turkish territories, and try to leave Syria as soon as possible to save their lives from the Russian air attacks.

Russia's increasing military involvement in Syria, which constitutes another lifeline for the Bashar Al-Assad regime, is of great concern to Saudi Arabia, which together with Turkey and Qatar is leading the battle against this regime.

October 2, 55 Saudi clerics, many of them known to be Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters, issued a communiqué calling the Russian offensive a "war crime." They called on "able men" in Syria to "join the ranks of jihad," and warned that this was a "true war against [all] Sunnis" being waged by a "Crusader Shi'ite alliance" and a "Western-Russian coalition with the Safavids [i.e., Iranians] and 'Alawites."

The following day, the Syrian MB also issued a communique titled "The Syrian People Will Repel the Russian Occupation with Jihad," declaring that defensive jihad was an individual duty

The heads of your Orthodox Church have declared [the Russian intervention of Syria] a crusader holy war, just as [George] Bush Jr. did in the past [regarding the American invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq].

"To Arab and Muslim countries we say: The Western-Russian coalition with the Safavids and 'Alawites is a true war against [all] Sunnis, their lands, and their identities,





with no exception. The jihad fighters in Syria are currently defending the entire ummah.

Muhammad Kurayyim Rajih, the most senior Syrian Koran reciter and a member of the Syrian Islamic Council, also called for jihad against Russia, but unlike the statements issued by the Saudi clerics, the Syrian MB, and the Syrian Islamic Council itself, he claimed that the duty of jihad fell on all of the world's Muslims, not just Syrians. He wrote on his Facebook page: "Come to jihad... O Muslims everywhere... The Russians are entering Syria with their destruction, and their jets kill and destroy... This is a war against Islam and Muslim, their countries and property, merely for being Muslim. Jihad is now an individual duty for all Muslims... I hereby declare jihad on all levels to be an individual duty for every Muslim, and call on Muslim clerics to rule that jihad for the sake of Allah is mandatory and to operate in all countries of the world..."http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8819.htm

13 Sep 2015, "I call on all mujahedeen (Islamist fighters) in districts of Iraq and Syria to collaborate and help each other," said Zawahiri, who opposes last year's declaration by the Islamic State group (IS) of a "caliphate" straddling the two Arab states. To counter the campaign, Zawahiri called for Muslims "to take the war into the West's cities and against their installations, especially in the United States". Baghdadi exhorts angsty young men to “erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere.” Zawahiri offers lessons on political theory. O’ soldiers of the Islamic State, continue to harvest the soldiers. Erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere. Light the earth with fire upon all those who rebel against God, their soldiers, and supporters. Carry on in your path, as you are the strong by Allah’s permission. Carry on, as you are the honorable. Carry on, as you are the superior. Carry on, as you are the victorious — God willing. Yet Zawahiri remains vital to al Qaeda. He is the last senior figure of the al Qaeda old guard that came of age fighting in the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan alongside bin Laden. Most of the group’s original leaders are dead, and a few, like the Egyptian theologian Dr. Fadl, have rejected violence and condemned al Qaeda. A new generation might take up the torch upon Zawahiri’s death, but none have his name recognition or credibility.The Islamic State leadership, in contrast, is more dynamic. Baghdadi electrified the jihadi world when he proclaimed a caliphate last year. His group’s campaign against Shiite “apostates” and military victories on the ground are a demonstration of the group’s prowess and emotionally appealing to jihadi sympathizers and would-be radicals. Zawahiri talks the talk; Baghdadi walks the walk.The Islamic State is also wooing groups in the Muslim world and creating fissures in existing ones. In Nigeria, Boko Haram has pledged loyalty to the Islamic State, though what it means to be a “province” of the group remains unclear. Islamic State fighters are also active in Libya. In Sinai, local jihadis are pledging loyalty and beheading foreigners in imitation. In Afghanistan, Yemen, and elsewhere, cells claiming to act in the name of the Islamic State are active, posing a challenge to the al Qaeda-linked old guard leadership.Al Qaeda is strongest when we factor in its affiliate organizations: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Shabab in Somalia, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and al-Nusra Front in Syria. AQAP in particular has done the most to carry on al Qaeda’s anti-Western agenda, training one of the Charlie Hebdo attackers and attempting to bomb U.S. airliners. Others have expanded their targeting of Western and international targets within their own local theaters of war but have not endeavored to launch attacks inside the United States or Europe.




http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8819.htm


Yet even here al Qaeda seems on the decline, particularly when we consider the terrorism threat to the West. All the affiliates are focused first and foremost on the bloody civil wars in their regions. They hope to gain territory and expand their local control, but the wars are all-consuming, and terrorism overseas is at best a sideshow. The leader of al-Nusra Front even claimed the group does not want to attack Western targets and is exclusively focused on the civil war in Syria.

Nigeria’s Boko Haram islamists have reached out to the Somali jihadist organization al-Shabaab, urging it to switch its loyalty to the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) Oct 15. Al-Shabaab is currently allied to al-Qaeda, the rival jihadist group founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s. Boko Haram pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State earlier this year. In March, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau posted an audio recording online, swearing fealty to ISIS: We announce our allegiance to the Caliph of the Muslims … and will hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity, in hardship and ease, and to endure being discriminated against, and not to dispute about rule with those in power, except in case of evident infidelity regarding that which there is a proof from Allah.

October 26, 2015 Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No.1197Debate In Saudi Arabia Following Saudi Clerics' Call For Jihad Against Russian Forces In SyriaBy: N. Mozes a research fellow at MEMRI* IntroductionRussia's increasing military involvement in Syria, which constitutes another lifeline for the Bashar Al-Assad regime, is of great concern to Saudi Arabia, which together with Turkey and Qatar is leading the battle against this regime. However, Saudi Arabia is taking a cautious approach on this matter, due to its desire to preserve its relations with Russia, which have warmed over the past year. While the Saudi ambassador to the UN condemned the Russian airstrikes in Syria and called for them to be stopped,[1] in an interview with the London-based Saudi daily Al-Hayat on October 1, 2015, Saudi Foreign Minister 'Adel Al-Jubeir said that despite its disagreements with Russia on Syria and Iran, the kingdom was aiming for closer political and economic ties with it.[2]In contrast, 55 Saudi clerics, many of them known to be Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters, had a much harsher response to the Russian military intervention in Syria. On October 2, several days after Russia began conducting the airstrikes against targets in Syria, the clerics issued a communique[3]calling the Russian offensive a "war crime." They called on "able men" in Syria to "join the ranks of jihad," and warned that this was a "true war against [all] Sunnis" being waged by a "Crusader Shi'ite alliance" and a "Western-Russian coalition with the Safavids [i.e., Iranians] and 'Alawites." According to the communique, the Syrian jihadis defend all Muslims, and therefore Arab and Muslim countries should assist them morally, materially, militarily, and politically.The following day, the Syrian MB also issued a communique titled "The Syrian People Will Repel the Russian Occupation with Jihad," declaring that defensive jihad was an individual duty for anyone able to bear arms, and announcing that it was making the organization's resources available for this purpose. Similar statements were also made by the Syrian Islamic Council, a body established in April 2014 in Istanbul that comprises 128 Syrian clerics, many of them MB members, as well as by Sheikh Muhammad Kurayyim Rajih, the most senior Syrian Koran reciter and a member of the Syrian Islamic Council.[4] All these statements were made by individuals who are members of or support the MB.To date, Saudi authorities have issued no official response to the clerics' communique. The sole exception to this was one report in the London-based Qatari daily Al-Arabi Al-





Jadidstating that the Saudi Interior Ministry intended to investigate and prosecute the clerics on charges of violating the 2014 anti-terror law that bans Saudis from fighting outside the country andfrom encouragingfellow Saudi citizens to do so.However, the communique did spark anuproar in the Saudi press and on social media. Several Saudi articles attacked it, terming it a call for Saudis to go and fight in Syria, which constitutes incitement and defiance of the ruler, who has the sole authority to declare jihad. They warned of the serious implications that this would have for national security and for Saudi Arabia's image and relationship with Russia. The conflict in Syria, they noted, is political and not religious, and therefore does not necessitate a jihad war. An especially harsh critique by Mansour Al-Nogaidan called toarrest the clerics and force themto apologize to Russia.The harsh criticism of the communique may stem from the fact that many of its signatories are supporters of the MB, which is outlawed in Saudi Arabia.Conversely, others defended the communique, stating that the call for jihad was aimed solely at the Syrians themselves. They also attacked those who opposed the communique. At the same time, it should be mentioned that these calls came primarily from outside Saudi Arabia and on Qatari media; the latter is known for its pro-MB approach.This report will review the calls for jihad against Russian forces in Syria and the Saudi responses to the clerics' communique.

55 Saudi Clerics: All Able Syrians Should Join The Ranks Of JihadThe 55 Saudi clerics, many of them known to be MB supporters –including 'Abdallah bin Muhammad Al-Ghunaiman, Nasser bin Suleiman Al-'Umar, 'Ali bin Sa'id Al-Ghamdi – stressed in their communique that this was a war launched by "the Orthodox crusader Russia" against the Muslim Syria. They said Muslims would redeem their faith by sacrificing their lives, and called on Syrian fighters to join the ranks of jihad. They stated: "After nearly five years of unrelenting political and military support for the 'Alawite regime, Russia is now throwing its full weight behind [it] and is intervening directly and militarily to protect the Bashar Al-Assad regime from falling. In light of this most terrible calamity and war crime on the part of an influential country that presumes to be responsible for world justice and peace, we hereby declare the following:

"O Russians, the most extreme among Christians – [there is] nothing new under the sun! 36 years ago the communist Soviet Union invaded the Muslim Afghanistan to support the Communist Party and protect it from falling. And now, its successor, the Orthodox crusader Russia, is invading the Muslim Syria to support the 'Alawite regime and protect it from falling; it must learn a lesson from the fate of its predecessor. The heads of your Orthodox Church have declared [the Russian intervention of Syria] a crusader holy war, just as [George] Bush Jr. did in the past [regarding the American invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq]. Know that Muslims will redeem their faith by sacrificing their lives, souls, and all they hold dear, and just as they expelled you from Afghanistan, they will bring about you humiliating defeat in Syria, Allah willing."O, our men in Syria – the calamity afflicting you is severely worsening and your test has





lasted a long time... You must fear Allah, repent, and trust in Allah... Know that Russia only intervened to save the regime from certain defeat. Through you, Allah defeated the security [mechanisms] of the regime and its shabiha [militias], followed by its army, and later the Shi'ite Safavid groups from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Through you, He defeated the Party of Satan [i.e. Hizbullah] and He can defeat the Russians [as well]. Therefore, persevere and endure and remain stationed and fear Allah, that you may be successful' (Koran 3:200)... We call on you to hold on, and we urge the men [of the various groups], [all] able and skilled people in all fields, to stay and not leave Syria, and to take part in building and liberating [it]. We call on the able among you to join the ranks of jihad, for this is your hour... Swiftly join the jihad against the enemy of God and your enemy, and Allah will be with you, and the Muslims will stand behind you as much as they can.The dawn of victory is at hand..."To Arab and Muslim countries we say: The Western-Russian coalition with the Safavids and 'Alawites is a true war against [all] Sunnis, their lands, and their identities, with no exception. The jihad fighters in Syria are currently defending the entire ummah. Trust in them and give them moral, military, and political support, for if they are defeated... it will be the turn of the remaining Sunni countries, one after the other... O clerics and thinkers – this is a war on Islam... Stress in your words, writings, sermons, and lessons that we must abandon all sources of schism, and warn against them. Unite the ranks and tell people the truth behind the crusader Shi'ite alliances so they can beware it... Encourage people to devote all their efforts and give as much as they can, and to provide material aid, since Syrians are fighting our enemy and defending us against him..."Allah, please hasten the victory of the people of Syria... and defeat the armies that have conspired against us..."[5]Other MB Elements: Embarking On Defensive Jihad Is An Individual DutyThe same day (October 2, 2015), the Syrian Islamic Council, a body established in April 2014 in Istanbul that includes 128 Syrian clerics, many of them MB members, also issued a statement, warning that Russia's decision to intervene militarily in Syria "endangers its interests in the region and the entire Muslim world." The council called on the Syrian factions to combat the Russian presence, saying: "The Syrian Islamic Council sees the Russian presence as an occupying force that attacks and kills in order to aid a criminal tyrant against an oppressed people. Therefore, all factions must fight it and expel it from Syria in defeat, with all possible means. Fighting it is the most exalted form of jihad..."[6]The following day, the Syrian MB also issued a communique titled "The Syrian People will Eradicate the Russian Occupation with Jihad", which stated: "...The Russian military intervention in our Syrian homeland is not another rash action or immature political adventure, for it was officially and unanimously approved by the Kremlin, and was blessed as a holy war by the Orthodox Church, thus turning it into a foreign invasion and the planned occupation of one country by another country that is a permanent member of the [UN] Security Council..."Our Syrian people! In light of this brazen occupation of our land by the forces of evil, we at the MB stress that embarking on defensive jihad is now an individual duty [fard 'ain] for anyone who can bear arms, and we are therefore making all our organization's resources available for this purpose. We call on all members of the Syrian people and all its tribes, brigades, families, and religions, to act as one, topple the tyrant, and defeat the occupier. The homeland comes first and there is no place for narrow interests. O Muslims throughout the world, you must respond to the [Russian] aggression and defend the oppressed and abused [Syrian people]."[7]Muhammad Kurayyim Rajih, the most senior Syrian Koran reciter and a member of the Syrian Islamic Council, also called for jihad against Russia, but unlike the statements





issued by the Saudi clerics, the Syrian MB, and the Syrian Islamic Council itself, he claimed that the duty of jihad fell on all of the world's Muslims, not just Syrians. He wrote on his Facebook page: "Come to jihad... O Muslims everywhere... The Russians are entering Syria with their destruction, and their jets kill and destroy... This is a war against Islam and Muslim, their countries and property, merely for being Muslim. Jihad is now an individual duty for all Muslims... I hereby declare jihad on all levels to be an individual duty for every Muslim, and call on Muslim clerics to rule that jihad for the sake of Allah is mandatory and to operate in all countries of the world..."[8]Endnotes:

[1]Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), October 2, 2015.[2]Al-Hayat (London), October 1, 2015.[3] While the communique has 55 signatories, some sources reported that only 52 had signed it.[4] The International Union of Muslims Scholars (IUMS), headed by Sheikh Yousuf Al-Qaradhawi, also issued a statement condemning Russian military intervention in Syria and calling to arm the moderate Syrian opposition. The Egyptian MB issued a condemnation of the Russian military intervention as well, but these two bodies avoided calling the struggle against the Russian forces "jihad." Iumsonline.org, ikhwanonline.com, October 4, 2015.[5] Almoslim.net, October 2, 2015.[6] Sy-sic.com, October 2, 2015.[7] Ikhwansyria.com, October 3, 2015.[8] Facebook.com/KraemRajeh, October 5, 2015.

Oct 27, A Doctors Without Borders (MSF) hospital in the Yemeni governorate of Saada was hit by Saudi-led airstrikes on Monday night, the organisation tweeted this morning.

A senior Iranian official has warned about the escalating humanitarian situation in Yemen, which has been under Saudi military strikes for over eight months now.Oct 25, Majid Takht-e-Ravanchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister for European and American affairs, on Tuesday described the situation in Yemen as “grave,” urging the international community to take effective measures to send immediate relief aid to people in the war-wracked country. Riyadh’s military aggression and the related war crimes against the Yemeni nation have been going on with little international attention. Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah attacked Saudi Arabia for its intervention in Yemen and Bahrain during a televised speech on Saturday. During his speech in Beirut on Ashura, the day on which Shia Muslims commemorate the death of the Prophet Muhammed's grandson, Nasrallah condemned what he termed Saudi-US aggression in Yemen and listed the kingdom's leadership alongside traditional enemies Israel and the US. "On this day, we renew our condemnation of Saudi and American aggression in Yemen," Nasrallah said to a large crowd of supporters. Hezbollah members chanted "death to the Saud family" as Nasrallah railed against Sunni-led Saudi Arabia, reflecting deepening sectarian tensions.

Oct 22, Al-Qaeda's black flag has been seen flying over several official buildings in Yemen's second city Aden as the militants have made inroads in the absence of state authority and with the country mired in conflict. In Tawahi, the flag has been hoisted over the police station and is flying on cars ferrying men across one of the largest districts of the port city, residents told AFP. "Armed men of al-Qaeda control our whole district, even





if there are only a few dozen of them," said Raefat, a 32-year-old employee of Yemeni radio and television. "It's no surprise given there's no state or government," he said. "These armed men claim to be part of the Popular Resistance but nobody knows what group they belong to," protested Majed Ahmed, a resident of Dar Saad, another Aden district where al-Qaeda's flag flutters over a disused police post. To finance their operations, al-Qaeda fighters have seized $6m worth of diesel from a local port and sold it on the city's black market, according to an Aden refinery official. Elsewhere in southern Yemen, al-Qaeda has had control of Mukalla, Yemen's third largest port and capital of Hadramawt province, since April. At the start of October, its fighters occupied an administrative complex in Zinjibar, capital of Abyan, one of five southern provinces recaptured from the Houthis

In Aden, Yemen's most cosmopolitan city, the masked Islamist gunmen seem to have burst onto the streets from some other world. Islamic State served notice that it was bringing its bloody campaign for a Sunni Muslim caliphate to a city where separatist fighters, Arab armies and an embattled rump government had just forced out Shi'ite militiamen. "Aden is at risk of falling to Islamists and if it does, that would be a disaster for everybody," said a prominent Yemeni academic who, fearful of the consequences of speaking out, asked not to be identified. Al Qaeda's strict Sunni Muslim ideology makes it natural enemies of the Shi'ite Houthis, and the Houthis say Hadi's government and al Qaeda have become de facto allies on the battlefield.But although al Qaeda is still probably the biggest jihadist faction in Yemen, it is no longer the only one, and the emergence of Islamic State this year has brought a force that has made clear it will observe no truce. The world's most violent jihadist group, Islamic State considers all Shi'ites apostates deserving of death. It served notice it had become a serious presence in Yemen by staging a quadruple suicide bombing of Houthi-linked mosques in Sanaa in March, killing nearly 150 people and wounding hundreds more, the deadliest attack of its kind in Yemen's history. "Daesh has a dogma," said Ibrahim Freihat, a senior analyst at the Doha branch of thinktank Brookings. "It can attack all parties at the same time, and one cannot expect to see logic in what it does." Gunmen - whether loyal to al Qaeda, Islamic State or some other group, or acting on their own - have capitalised on frustration with the lack of jobs or public services and the absence of government authority to swell their ranks."You have a young population with guns and with no jobs. What do you expect to get?" said Yemeni analyst Abdel-Bari Taher. "It is a dangerous mix." "If the government fails, al Qaeda will rise up and control everything, like in Mukalla," Mohammed al-Saadi, a Southern Resistance leader, told Reuters earlier this month in the ornate lobby of the seaside al-Qasr hotel where Hadi had set up a temporary administration. Just days later, the hotel became one of the targets of the Oct. 6 Islamic State attacks.

WASHINGTON Oct 26 -- Over the past six months, the Obama administration has quietly embroiled the U.S. in a Middle Eastern war that has left more than 20 million people in need of humanitarian aid and killed at least 5,000. U.S.-backed Sunni Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia, have bombed weddings, left families to starve and looked the





other way as an al Qaeda affiliate has used the confusion to seize significant territory. Civilian casualties are growing daily. The White House won't admit that the U.S. is even "in" Yemen. But it's refueling the planes bombing the country and providing intelligence to the Sunni states running the Yemen campaign. Now lawmakers, dissenters within the administration and human rights activists are ramping up their criticisms of the Obama policy. They argue that the U.S. is callously backing the Saudi-led coalition -- in part to reassure America's Sunni allies in the wake of the nuclear deal with Shiite Iran -- without concern for the consequences. By supporting the Saudi effort, they say, President Barack Obama risks empowering al Qaeda and implicating the U.S. and its allies in war crimes -- not to mention further tarnishing America's already damaged image in the Middle East."It's time for Congress to ask some serious questions about whether the United States’ current participation in this civil war is advancing our nation's national security interests," Sen. Christopher Murphy (D-Conn.) said in a statement Thursday.

In March, in the small middle eastern country of Yemen, a long-running political crisis escalated into all-out conflict. At the request of the Yemeni government an international coalition led by Saudi Arabia began air strikes across Yemen against Houthi rebels. For ordinary Yemenis, the consequences have been devastating. As a recent report, State of Crisis: Explosive Weapons in Yemen (pdf) documents, more than 2,200 civilian deaths had been registered by September. “The intensity of explosive violence in the country has meant that more civilian deaths and injuries from explosive weapons were recorded … during the first seven months of 2015 than in any other country in the world.” All parties to the conflict are using heavy explosive weapons across the country, the majority of them unleashed on populated areas, from the capital Sana’a in the north to Taiz and the port city of Aden in the south, with Isil and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula adding to the mayhem. The proportion of deaths and injuries that are civilian in populated areas of Yemen is overwhelming: from air-launched explosive weapons – 93%; from ground-launched explosive weapons – 94%; from improvised explosive devices – 97%.

Al-Qaeda Forces Raid Aden Supermarket, Spurn Calls to Leave Key Yemen CityTribal Mediators Unsuccessful in Trying to Coax al-Qaeda Out of Temporary Capitalby Jason Ditz, October 25, 2015 When pro-Saudi forces seized the southern Yemeni port city of Aden this summer, there were immediately reports of Sunni Islamist factions, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), setting up shop in the area. This was unsurprising, as Saudi forces have mostly left AQAP alone during the war.But AQAP’s presence is growing quite a bit recently, with fighters storming a supermarket today, briefly taking several hostages. It was a relatively small incident, but one that raises concern about Aden’s status as a “temporary capital” of Yemen, and whether the Saudis really have serious control over the city. Tribal mediators got some talks together over the weekend aimed at getting AQAP to agree to leave the city, but were so far unsuccessful, with the supermarket raid likely a show of force after the talks didn’t work. AQAP’s presence is more than just a token one at this point, with dozens of tanks and armored vehicles under their control, and the group holding large armed parades in its own honor, while resisting threats of forcible disarmament by the pro-Saudi forces.

Shabaab’s leadership fights Islamic State’s attempted expansion in East AfricaBY THOMAS JOSCELYN | October 26, 2015 | In an audio message attributed to him and posted online, Abdiqadir Mumin, a Shabaab figure based in the Puntland region, recently pledged allegiance to the





Islamic State.

The Islamic State has made a big push to win the loyalty of Shabaab, al Qaeda’s official branch in East Africa, and fighters in its ranks. For months, Islamic State boosters on social media have predicted Shabaab’s imminent defection. And the “caliphate” recently released numerous propaganda videos encouraging Somali jihadists to switch their allegiance from al Qaeda head Ayman al Zawahiri to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed “Caliph Ibrahim.” The videos targeting Shabaab’s rank and file have starred jihadists in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere.Thus far, however, the Islamic State’s anti-al Qaeda push in East Africa has had little success. While additional defections are possible, or even likely, the “caliphate” has not yet won over a substantial number of Shabaab members.The only noteworthy defection to date came last week, when Abdiqadir Mumin, a Shabaab leader in the Puntland region, purportedly announced his allegiance to Baghdadi in an audio message released online. Mumin declared his fealty to Baghdadi on behalf of the “the mujahideen of Somalia,” but that was an exaggeration.According to Reuters, which interviewed one of Mumin’s men, just 20 jihadists out of the 300 located in the Galgala hills of Puntland, where Mumin was based, have joined the Islamic State. According to SITE Intelligence Group, the Shahada News Agency, a pro-jihadist media group that reports on Somalia, has confirmed these figures based on “independent sources.”If accurate, this obviously means that the remaining 280 or so fighters in the area have not followed Mumin’s lead. Indeed, Shahada News Agency reported that the “rest of the soldiers are loyal to” Shabaab “in its allegiance to al Qaeda.” The follower of Mumin interviewed by Reuters said the same: “The other fighters rejected us and remained in the Galgala hills.” It is possible that more fighters have joined Mumin than these reports suggest. Still, the Islamic State has failed to win over a large number of defectors from within Shabaab’s guerrilla army. To put things in perspective, consider the overall scale of Shabaab’s operations.The State Department notes that Shabaab “is estimated to have several thousand members, including a small cadre of foreign fighters.” Shabaab doesn’t possess as much territory as it once did, but the al Qaeda branch still controls significant turf and remains one of the most prolific insurgency organizations. According to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Shabaab executed the third most terrorist attacks (nearly 500) of any perpetrator organization in 2014. Only the Islamic State and the Taliban carried out more.By way of comparison, the Islamic State has yet to claim a single attack in Somalia, although it may do so in the near future. And while the “caliphate” may very well announce a wilayat (or province) in East Africa, there is no reason to believe, absent significant defections, that it will be nearly as strong as Shabaab.





One reason the Islamic State has been slow to expand into East Africa, even as it has declared “provinces” elsewhere on the continent, is that the “caliphate’s” men have run into stiff opposition from Shabaab’s leadership.

Shabaab’s leadership remains loyal to al Qaeda, hunts down defectorsAl Qaeda’s leadership is, of course, well aware that the Islamic State is attempting to poach from Shabaab’s ranks. In the long-delayed first episode of his “Islamic Spring” series, which was released last month, Ayman al Zawahiri recounted his communications with Ahmed Abdi Godane, who headed Shabaab until his demise in September 2014. Zawahiri explained that he and Godane had discussed the Islamic State’s attempt to split the jihadists’ ranks.In a message sent in July or August of 2013, according to Zawahiri’s testimony in “Islamic Spring,” Godane asked Allah “to forgive the brothers” in the Islamic State for their “transgression” and to “restore them to the truth.” Godane addressed Zawahiri as “my sheikh” and asked him to be “patient” with the Islamic State and “attempt reconciliation and amendment.”Godane was especially offended by the Islamic State’s rhetoric, because he and his men “strive for the restoration of the Islamic caliphate” incorporating Muslims around the globe. The Islamic State acts as if this is not the case, and has demanded the submission of al Qaeda’s regional branches.In the spring of 2014, as explained in “Islamic Spring,” Zawahiri sent Godane a message of his own. “I know how sad you are about what is happening in the Levant, the eruption of blind strife there, the disdain for holy sanctities, the disavowal of settled matters such as the [Islamic] State’s pledge of allegiance to al Qaeda, their duplicity in this respect,” and “how they deem it permissible to practice takfir [labeling other Muslims as infidels] against their opponents,” Zawahiri explained to Godane, according to a translation obtained by The Long War Journal.Zawahiri noted that he “even found” a video on the Internet “debating whether God’s humble servant [as Zawahiri referred to himself] is an infidel.”“The one who declares God’s humble servant [Zawahiri] to be an infidel and blows up Abu Khalid al Suri, may God have mercy on him, will not abstain from blowing up, or declaring to be an infidel, anyone who criticizes him or opposes his projects,” Zawahiri continued. (Abu Khalid al Suri, an al Qaeda veteran, was Zawahiri’s representative in Syria and a senior leader in Ahrar al Sham until his death in February 2014.)Zawahiri told Godane that he ordered Al Nusrah Front to avoid any “aggression” against the Islamic State and that he would also encourage Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s organization to return to Iraq for the sake of unity. After summarizing these messages to and from Godane, Zawahiri eulogized Shabaab’s fallen emir. The al Qaeda leader praised Godane’s “martyrdom.”Turning to more recent events, Zawahiri used his first appearance in the “Islamic Spring” series to address his “brothers, the lions of Islam in East Africa,” telling them to “stand firm on the path.” Zawahiri also approved of Godane’s successor as Shabaab’s leader.“I endorse their [Shabaab’s] choice of the noble brother, Shaykh Abu Ubaydah Ahmad Umar, as their emir, and I ask God to grant him success in bearing the responsibility of dawa [Islamic proselytizing] and jihad,” Zawahiri declared. “I request of him to exert all of his efforts to institute sharia as the undisputed ruler and master in East Africa.”Al Qaeda’s most senior leader went on to offer Shabaab’s new emir advice, speaking as if Ahmed Umar rules over an emirate (state) or province. “May he seek recourse to gentleness, patience, and kindness, for they are the best helpers of the governor over his wilayat [province] and of the emir over his emirate,” Zawahiri said.





Shabaab’s leaders have repeatedly made their loyalty to al Qaeda’s leadership known. Just days after Godane’s death last year, the group reaffirmed its oath of fealty to Zawahiri. Shabaab’s propaganda throughout this year has routinely featured pro-al Qaeda messaging as well.All of this means that the Islamic State has to overcome Shabaab’s role in al Qaeda’s international network in order to spawn a new “province” for the “caliphate” in East Africa. Shabaab is not making it easy. Voice of America (VOA) reported in late September that Shabaab’s leadership had “issued an internal memo aimed at silencing pro-IS elements, who are accused of stirring up dissent.” The memo “reportedly stated the group’s policy is to continue allegiance with al Qaeda and that any attempt to create discord over this position will be dealt with according to Islamic law.” Any “speech made in public or in mosques about policies, operations and guidance first must be cleared with [Shabaab’s] media office,” VOA reported.There is little doubt that some of the Shabaab’s younger members want to join the Islamic State. There may be additional figures like Mumin as well. But there is no way to accurately assess how many jihadists in Somalia belong to this pro-Islamic State category. And, to date, the Islamic State has little to show for its efforts.While the Islamic State has loudly tried to woo Shabaab, the al Qaeda branch has been quietly silencing dissent. Shabaab’s Amniyat, an internal security organ that protects the group’s leadership, has been hunting down fighters who refuse to give up their pro-Islamic State ambition. Shabaab has reportedly detained or killed dozens of members who have gravitated to the Islamic State’s camp.And Mumin’s decision to switch his allegiance has already provoked a backlash. On October 24, Al Muhajiroun, a group of “emigrant” fighters in East Africa, released a statement in English objecting to the “unhelpful pronouncement of a minority of individuals and their so-called bayat [allegiance] to those that have thus far failed to follow the Sunnah but expect to [unite] the Mujahideen.” Although Al Muhajiroun did not explicitly mention the Islamic State or Mumin, its statement was clearly aimed at them.“As stated previously, the Emigrants of East Africa remain united behind our beloved brothers in Al Qaeda and [Shabaab],” Al Muhajiroun’s propaganda arm wrote.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.




Documents

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-33