Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 23-6-Africa-41

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 23-6-Africa-41

While the media eye remains set on the Middle East, focused as it were on the long litany of horrors which have streamed out of the region, Africa too has witnessed more than its fair share of violence, bloodshed and acts of senseless terror. Smail Chergui, African Union (AU) Commissioner for Peace and Security, said African countries were concerned about the possible return of between 3,000 and 6,000 youths who joined the Islamic State (IS).

MOSCOW (Sputnik Dec 20) — Turmoil in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Africa has increased the threat of terrorism globally, posing danger to Russia, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov said Monday.

"The destabilized situation in the Middle East, across African states and in Afghanistan has created the threat of the spread of terrorist activity to different regions of the world, including Russia," Gerasimov said at a meeting with Russia's military diplomats.

The Security Council Dec 16 called on all United Nations Member States to do everything in their power to combat human trafficking, especially for sexual purposes, citing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and Boko Haram as prime perpetrators.

"The Security Council notes the particular impact that trafficking in persons in situations of armed conflict has on women and children, including increasing their vulnerability to sexual and gender based violence," the 15-member body said in a Presidential Statement adopted during a discussion on human trafficking in situations of conflict.

It referred specifically to ISIL's trafficking in Yazidis and its abuse of international humanitarian law and human rights, as well as such violations by the LRA in central Africa and the Nigerian-based Islamist Boko Haram group "for the purpose of sexual slavery, sexual exploitation and forced labour," saying such actions in armed conflict may constitute war crimes.

"Let us first be clear what we are discussing today: human trafficking is slavery in the modern age," UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson told the Council. "Slavery is not just a past abomination. Millions of people are living as slaves or in slave-like

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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conditions as we speak today, in the year 2015."Most of those trafficked are vulnerable women and children deceived or abducted into a life of suffering, exploitation, torture and servitude. This ruthless practice has become a global industry and it must be stopped," he said, also noting that thousands of men and boys have been forcibly conscripted by the LRA.

25 November 2015 – Without international aid to improve education and jobs, the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa will become fertile ground for recruiting terrorists among its tens of millions of disadvantaged people, the top United Nations official for the region warned the Security Council today.“It is an important opportunity to highlight the predicament of a region which desperately needs the continued focus of the Security Council,” Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Special Envoy for the Sahel, Hiroute Guebre Sellassie, said, citing recent terrorist attacks from Bamako, Cameroon, Nigeria, Paris and Lebanon to the downing of a Russian plane over Egypt. “It is very alarming that youth and women in the Sahel, who constitute a vast majority of the population, are the targets of recruitment into radical movements. Up to 41 million youth under 25 years of age in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger alone face hopelessness and are at risk of radicalization or migration,” she added.“If nothing is done to improve access to education, increase employment and integration opportunities for the youth, the Sahel, I am afraid, will become a hub of mass migration, and of recruitment and training of terrorist groups and individuals, which, as you know, will ultimately have grave consequences for global peace and security.” “The fight against terrorism requires international solidarity. Global partnerships in the fight against terrorism are no more an option but an imperative for survival.”Drug traffickers are increasingly colluding with armed groups and terrorist movements which grant them safe passage in exchange for financial benefits. “If conflicts are to be prevented in the Sahel, illicit trafficking, including of drugs, weapons and humans should be stopped,” she said.“Finally, I encourage the international community to enhance its support to the United Nations and regional organizations in addressing cross cutting and trans-boundary issues. Together, we can prevent further deterioration of the situation in the Sahel.”

Dec 20, Smail Chergui, African Union (AU) Commissioner for Peace and Security, said African countries were concerned about the possible return of between 3,000 and 6,000 youths who joined the Islamic State (IS).The commissioner said on Wednesday in Algiers that the youth fighters, returning home to join terrorist groups in the Middle East were real threat to Africa. He urged African





nations to draw up a “de-radicalisation system” to encourage people to adopt more moderate views in terms of religion. Chergui said this had become very urgent because no country in the region was safe from terrorist acts. He also said that establishment of Africa’s police cooperation mechanism (Afripol) had become essential.

Isis could be planning a chemical weapon attack on Europe, which would kill ‘hundreds or thousands’ of people, a European Parliament report has warned.The document warns that the EU and member states must prepare for the possibility of chemical or biological weapons being used on the continent. It stated that the terrorist group has been recruiting skilled university graduates, and could have access to the deadly weapons in Iraq, Syria, and possibly Libya.It said: ‘Orchestrating a CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) attack that would kill hundreds or thousands of citizens still poses a significant technical and logistical challenge.‘However, ISIL/Da’esh has very important financial resources, proven success in recruiting skilled university graduates, and access to CBRN material, at least in Iraq and Syria, and possibly in Libya.

‘On 19 November 2015, the French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, raised the spectre of ISIL/Da’esh planning a chemical or biological attack. At present, European citizens are not seriously contemplating the possibility that extremist groups might use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) materials during attacks in Europe.‘Under these circumstances, the impact of such an attack, should it occur, would be even more destabilising.

‘European governments and EU institutions need to be on alert, and should consider publicly addressing the possibility of a terrorist attack using chemical, biological, radiological or even nuclear materials.’

France says fight against Isil will extend to LibyaFrench Prime Minister Manuel Valls says the threat of further attacks like Paris remains "because we have hundreds, even thousands of young people who have succumbed to radicalisation".

"We are at war, we have an enemy, Daesh, that we must fight and crush in Syria, in Iraq and soon in Libya too," Valls said, using an Arabic acronym for the group.

"We are living with the terrorist threat. We have a common enemy, Daesh, which we must defeat and destroy in Iraq and Syria and probably tomorrow in Libya," he told Europe 1 radio.

“We see foreign jihadists arriving in the region of Syrte [in northern Libya] who, if our operations in Syria and Iraq succeed in reducing the territorial reach of Daesh [ISIS] could tomorrow be more numerous,” French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told France’s Jeune Afrique weekly on Saturday, as cited by AFP.

“It is a major risk and that’s why there absolutely must be understanding between the Libyans,” he added, referring to a necessity to form a unified Libyan government. At the same time Le Drian ruled out any military intervention in Libya.

“That’s not on the agenda. One cannot release the Libyans from their responsibilities by suggesting there might one day be an intervention. They must find solutions themselves,” he said at that time.

Russia has no plans to carry out air strikes in Libya, a stronghold of ISIS militants, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday.





“This is not in our plans. We have had no requests of this kind from the

government of Libya ... and there is no government of Libya as such,” Lavrov told a news conference during a visit to Italy. Lavrov also said Russia sees a U.S.-led coalition hitting ISIS militants in Syria as a potentially effective partner in the Arab republic.

Britain 'moving towards military action against Isil in Libya' Government says it is “extremely concerned" by the rapid rise of Isil and other

extremist groups in Libya and is considering plans for intervening to tackle the threat.

Britain could launch military action in Libya next, Government sources have said amid fears that Islamic State militants will use their new stronghold along a stretch of the Mediterranean coast to target Europe.

Ministers at the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence say they are “extremely concerned" by the rapid rise of Isil and other extremist groups in Libya and are considering plans for intervening to tackle the threat.

Dec 20, While the media eye remains set on the Middle East, focused as it were on the long litany of horrors which have streamed out of the region, Africa too has witnessed more than its fair share of violence, bloodshed and acts of senseless terror.The forgotten victim of Wahhabi-inspired radicalism, Nigeria stands besieged by powers which have disguised themselves as legitimate, the avant-garde of an ideological plague which seeks a complete re-engineering of Africa’s religious map.But if the African continent has failed so far to generate a media frenzy on account, and Western powers have offered little by way of political interest, we ought to pay close attention to Nigeria’s ongoing crisis as it appears the vassals of the Black Flag army have now infiltrated the military to better weave themselves within the region’s power dynamics. Nigeria it needs to be said is home to one of the most brutal denominations of Wahhabi-terrorism: Boko Haram. Although Ilsamic State (ISIS) might from a distance epitomize terror’s irrational taste for bloodletting, this one homegrown African radical faction has claimed to its name more deaths than ISIS, al-Qaeda, or any other Wahhabi outfits ever did in their years of rampage.

A news report by RT this November read: “The Nigerian jihadists, who pledged allegiance to IS in March 2015, killed more people than their fellow Islamists, claiming 6,644 lives compared to 6,073. Nigeria accordingly experienced a staggering 300 percent rise in terrorism deaths in 2014, although other militant groups take partial blame for the increase.”To oppose Boko Haram and the stooges it bought to its ideology to the tune of financial patronage and threats of retaliation, one man has stood tallest: Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky, the country’s most renowned Shia cleric.A fervent advocate for religious freedom, Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky has worked to denounce those powers within Nigeria which have claimed to oppose radicalism, to better benefit from war lords’ financial largess, thus betraying their office in the name of personal gain.

Shielded by Gulf monarchies’ wealth, protected by regimes whose political myopia made them blind to the real enemy hiding among their midst, Boko Haram’s armies have advanced in Nigeria, sowing destruction and fear as they carve a bloody empire.In truth, if not for Western powers’ desire to demonize Iran and the Russian leadership, if not for a political narrative which requires Iran’s servitude and humiliation, heads of state





would have recognized that their best bets against terror lie still with Shia Islam, as it is its House, Wahhabi radicals ambition to lay waste.But this logic has been suppressed in favor of a grand alliance with Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia; those very regimes we know have played radicalism to pursue very hegemonic agendas across Africa and Asia. Nigeria early this December has witnessed a deluge of violence. In plain sight, and without so much of a murmur from the international community, communities in Africa stand in the line of a barbaric fire. On December 12, Nigerian soldiers raided the home of Sheikh Zakzaky, in Zaria, a Shiite stronghold. What started as a targeted attack quickly devolved into carnage as soldiers opened fire on civilians.Where such actions might have been rationalized by officials’ allegations that Shiites pose a threat to national security, it is really the community’s opposition to Boko Haram and military officials’ ties with radicals which prompted such a sectarian witch-hunt.

The leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, Zakzaky has been highly critical of political corruption, Boko Haram and the relationship it entertains with facets of the Nigerian army. But for all its statements and condemnations, never did the movement stray from its commitment to peace and interfaith harmony. A role model for many religious communities outside his own, Sheikh Zaksaky has been hailed an inspiring humanitarian figure by the like of the Islamic Human Rights Commission [IHRC], AhlulBayt News Agency [ABNA] and the Shafaqna Institute for Middle Eastern Studies.Zakzaky’s stand for peace was rewarded in blood. As soldiers ransacked his home, his wife, and son were held at gun point, only to be shot before his eyes.

On Sunday Haroon Bainavi, a Nigerian political activist confirmed that Sheikh Zakzaky was shot and wounded during the attacks."We don’t know where he is or where they took him," he told the local press. Activists and local residents also confirmed that a large number of soldiers torched and destroyed several parts of Zakzaky’s house before arresting him this Sunday. But the military did not have its fill of blood just yet as a mourning procession became target practice for over-zealous soldiers: 30 unarmed civilians were killed and countless more were injured.One man, Bukhari Muhammed Bello Jega took to social media to alert the world to the crimes taking place in his hometown. Before he was slain, alongside his wife and baby daughter, Bukhari was able to relay the horrors Shiites and Christians have had to endure under the reign of Boko Haram.

Recalling soldiers’ first attacks on Zaria last Saturday (December 11), Bukhari writes: “It is carnage here in Zaria ... soldiers are killing civilians in Gyellesu area and the home of our revered leader.... Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky.... They destroyed all the shops along the road leading to the house and several bodies of civilians are just piling up here... Do we have human beings in government? Are Nigerian soldiers above the law? Do those in authority lack the will or power to stop those vampires?”

On Sunday his plight turned into a prayer for his fallen brethren: “Disappointment and confusion in the camp of Nigerian soldiers as they are about to face the biggest shame of their lives... they have done a lot of killing and they have injured scores of brothers and sisters, yet, we remain peaceful. Shame and defeat is eminent, as morning get closer.... the people will continue from where we stopped... they lost the support and sympathy of the people .... The REAL BOKO HARAM is now on the loose bombing building and killing innocent civilians ..... Indeed the command center has just moved to Zaria … “We are praying to God to give us courage, bravery, faith and patience, we pray not to change no matter the hardship and tension…” On Monday Bukhari’s voice was silenced by a bullet.It is such violence and Nigeria’s connections to terror which has gone unreported for it





betrays an agenda rooted in the exploitation of terror for political and hegemonic gains.In Iran, officials have already risen in outrage, calling for Nigeria to be held accountable. Ayatollah Ali-Reza Arafi in Qom decried the attack as a clear attempt to defeat those powers committed to defeat Wahhabi-inspired radicalism. He pointed out that because Nigeria is home to 15 million Shiites Wahhabis had chosen to strike hard and fast.Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif also joined his voice to that of other officials in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Addressing his Nigerian counterpart Zarif called for “immediate and serious” measures to stop violence against all Muslims.”An official at the Iran Foreign Ministry told me under anonymity that Iranian diplomats in Nigeria had already made clear that should anything happen to the Sheikh, Tehran would hold the authorities directly responsible.

This statement was echoed by Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s own warning - Iran’s Arabic and African deputy foreign minister - “Currently we have very good relations with Nigeria and the country’s president recently visited Tehran. So we warned our friends in the Nigerian government that they are responsible in this issue … Sheikh Zakzaky’s health is very important to the nation, the Muslims of Nigeria and the whole of the Islamic world.”With tensions running at all-time high in Nigeria, religious minorities fear they lost the safety Sheikh Zakzaky offered them so far, by acting as a rampart against Wahhabi fundamentalism. As for Washington and other Western capitals their silence speaks volumes of their commitment to the war on terror, this political farce powers have waved as a banner for well over a decade. A fire has been lit in Africa and few seem interested in extinguishing it. - Catherine Shakdam is a political analyst, writer and commentator for the Middle East with a special focus on radical movements and Yemen.

Burundi: We will not allow foreign troops to enter President's spokesman says government rejects African Union decision to send in a

5,000-strong peacekeeping force.Dec 19, Burundi's government has rejected the African Union's decision to deploy a 5,000-strong peacekeeping force to curb ongoing violence in the troubled country, saying it will prevent foreign troops from entering its borders. The African Union's Peace and Security Council agreed on Friday night to deploy an African Prevention and Protection Mission (MAPROBU) for an initial period of six months - primarily to protect civilians after months of political violence following the disputed re-election of President Pierre Nkurunziza in July. The MAPROBU force is mandated to "prevent any deterioration of the security situation" as well as to protect civilians and "contribute to the creation of the necessary conditions for the successful holding of the inter-Burundian dialogue". Nkurunziza's spokesman Gervais Abayeho told Al Jazeera on Saturday, however, that Burundi does not need a peacekeeping force.

"We will not allow foreign troops in Burundi. We don't need them," Abayeho said

Dec 20, Niger has arrested nine military officers on suspicion of planning a coup , government officials said.The arrests, which took place earlier this week, came after a nearly one-month long surveillance operation, Hassoumi Massaoudou, Niger's interior minister, told a press conference on Sunday. "Nine officers identified as responsible for the attempted coup have been arrested and will be presented before a military court," Massaoudou told reporters in Niamey, the capital. He said the coup had been foiled "thanks to the loyalty" of certain





soldiers "who regularly kept us informed of the plan's progress".President Mahamadou Issoufou said in a televised address on Thursday that the alleged coup-plotters had planned to use aerial firepower and had prevented the movement of military assets from Niamey to the southern region of Diffa. The country's opposition, though, disputed the government claims. Amadou Boubacar Cisse, who is running against Issoufou in the February 21 polls, said Issoufou had provided "no proof" and accused the government of seeking to manipulate the political climate before the elections. "We don't see any evidence of the attempted coup," Cisse said. "Rather, he [Issoufou] has created a lot of problems around the election and has taken fraudulent actions with the electoral list."

UN: ISIS expanding in Libya UN: ISIS expanding in Libya, Front Page Magazine, Daniel Greenfield, November 17, 2015

According to Obama, ISIS has been contained. But the UN tells a different story. Not about Iraq, but Obama’s own war of choice in Libya.Islamic State militants have consolidated control over central Libya, carrying out summary executions, beheadings and amputations, the United Nations said on Monday in a further illustration of the North African state’s descent into anarchy.All sides in Libya’s multiple armed conflicts are committing breaches of international law that may amount to war crimes, including abductions, torture and the killing of civilians, according to a U.N. report. Obama and Hilllary’s regime change plan for Libya really worked out. It worked so well that neither of them wants to talk about it.Islamic State (IS) has gained control over swathes of territory, “committing gross abuses including public summary executions of individuals based on their religion or political allegiance”, the joint report by the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights and the U.N. Support Mission in Libya said. It’s like the time that Hillary said, “We came, we saw, he died.” Except ISIS does that sort of thing for real.But if you listen to the White House terrorsplain all this. ISIS attacked Paris because it’s weak. Obama is unable to defeat ISIS because he’s so strong. Black is white. Up is down. Lies are truth.

Dec 03, Malta’s Security Service (MSS) has declared that the threat of instability in North Africa and the establishment of Islamic State in Libya is a “real threat that is continually spreading, growing and evolving.” In its annual report tabled in the House of Representatives, MSS acting chief Joseph Bugeja said that with peace in Libya dead-legged by the continuous fighting between rival militias and contenders, the vacuum of power made it possible for Islamic State (ISIS) to spread its so called caliphate in the country.

“Few could have predicted that the situation would escalate to this point, with such speed, despite knowing the instability and danger in Libya,” Bugeja said. He said ISIS in Libya, where they have taken Sirte and Derna, were now in an ideal situation to exploit the political fracture inside the country.

“The ISIS threat is closer to our shores than what could have been expected. Together with the human trafficking from Libya coasts, this phenomenon shows how ISIS members could use the same illegal methods to infiltrate Europe, as well as to finance their own criminal actions.”





Isis is preparing a “retreat zone” in Libya as coalition air strikes pound the group’s strongholds in Iraq and Syria, a United Nations report has revealed.Dec 10 As British MPs vote to strike Isis targets in Syria, the report to the UN Security Council cites growing concerns the militants are building a fall-back base in Libya. It suggests Isis is bolstering its forces along a stretch of Libya’s Mediterranean coastline - only a few hundred miles away from mainland Europe. The report says the group’s central command in Iraq and Syria sees Libya as the best opportunity to expand its so-called caliphate, viewing the country as “a potential retreat and operational zone for Isil (Isis) fighters unable to reach the Middle East”. The group’s affiliate in Libya has between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters and is receiving support from its bases in Syria and Iraq, according to the report. It quotes Isis’s leader in Libya, Abu al-Mughirah Al Qahtani, who stressed the country’s importance due to its proximity to southern Europe and its abundance of resources “that cannot dry”.A senior unnamed US Defence Department official told the New York Times that the move to Libya amounted to "contingency planning" as Isis grows its forces. The same report estimated that the group’s affiliate in Libya had grown from 200 fighters to around 2,000 since it announced its branch in the country.The report claims a “great exodus” of senior Isis figures are heading to Libya from Syria and Iraq, with a number believed to have arrived in Libya in the last year.

Dec 11, There is an increasing risk of Libya becoming a haven for combatants from Islamic State (ISIS), even as western nations target the extremist jihadist group in Iraq and Syria, the French defense minister warned in comments published Sunday. Analysts believe Libya would present a less hospitable environment for ISIS than Syria and Iraq. But Tripoli is hampered in presenting a united front as rival governments vie for power - a militia alliance including Islamists that overran Tripoli in August 2014, and the internationally recognized administration that fled to eastern Libya.The current chaos in Libya with groups of competing militias since the overthrow and death of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 has allowed ISIS to build influence, notably in Gaddafi's coastal home town of Sirte, east of Tripoli.And there are widespread fears the group could exploit tribal conflicts further into Africa.Recognizing ISIS's increasing Libyan reach, Le Drian said he feared that ultimately the group could form one half of a double-edged jihadist challenge in conjunction with Boko Haram, which pledged allegiance to their fellow Islamic extremists in March and which has been bringing terror to Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon."There is a major risk of a link being forged with Boko Haram," said Le Drian, urging Libya's rival administrations to make common cause while urging neighbours Algeria and Egypt to work diplomatic channels to that effect.But Le Drian insisted that France would not countenance military action at least while the Libyans are divided among themselves."That's not on the agenda. One cannot release the Libyans from their responsibilities by suggesting there might one day be an intervention. They must find solutions themselves."

Dec 11, (CNSNews.com) - A Pentagon spokesman told reporters on Thursday that as the U.S. makes progress against Islamic terrorists in Iraq and Syria, ISIS will expand into other areas, "such as North Africa, Libya and the Sinai.""We know that ISIL will follow the path of least resistance, and as we continue to degrade





their capability here in their stronghold of Iraq and Syria -- you know, we have to expect and plan for them to try -- to attempt to gain footholds elsewhere," said Col. Steve Warren, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq.

Regards Cees ***

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try Deception: The Islamic State’s Expansion Efforts in AlgeriaPublication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 22November 13, 2015 11:15 AM Age: 7 daysBy: Nathaniel BarrSince announcing the establishment of the caliphate in June 2014, the Islamic State has broadcast its successes in expanding into new territories outside of Syria and Iraq, aiming to create the perception that it is growing rapidly throughout the Muslim world, and steadily chipping away at al-Qaeda’s position as the preeminent global jihadist organization. But contrary to the former’s claims, the group’s expansion efforts have often been fraught with setbacks. In some theaters, the Islamic State has confronted more powerful jihadist organizations, many of them al-Qaeda affiliates, who have resisted efforts to sow internal discord and inspire defections. The Islamic State has also run up against state security forces who have sought to eliminate affiliated groups before they can gain a foothold. To date, however, the Islamic State’s expansion struggles have often gone relatively unnoticed, as the group has effectively masked its weaknesses and projected an image of strength through its propaganda.Nowhere have the organization’s struggles been more pronounced than in Algeria. While Algeria was one of the first countries outside of Syria and Iraq where the Islamic State established a physical presence, two factors have prevented the group from solidifying its gains and making further inroads. First, a superior jihadist organization in al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has pushed back against the Islamic State’s encroachment in Algeria. AQIM has waged a propaganda battle against its jihadist rival, and has mounted a military campaign aimed at demonstrating to rank-and-file militants in Algeria that it is more powerful than the Islamic State. Second, Islamic State factions in Algeria have been unable to evade Algeria’s security forces, who have aggressively and proactively cracked down on them. With both AQIM and Algerian security forces pressuring the Islamic State, the group has resorted to a familiar propaganda strategy of deception and exaggeration to preserve its influence in Algeria. The article will examine the Islamic State’s struggles in Algeria in the context of the group’s broader international expansion efforts.Islamic State’s Initial Advance into AlgeriaThe Islamic State’s expansion into Algeria came without warning, when members of AQIM’s “center zone,” led by Abdelmalek Gouri, announced in September 2014 that they were joining the rival jihadist group. In his statement, Gouri said that AQIM had “deviat[ed] from the true path,” and he proclaimed that his group would henceforth be known as Jund al-Khilafah, or Soldiers of the Caliphate (al-Jazeera, September 14, 2014). Less than two weeks after Gouri’s pledge of allegiance, Jund al-Khilafah announced its arrival on the world stage by kidnapping and beheading Herve Gourdel, a French citizen who had been hiking in the mountains of the Kabylie region, a longtime hotbed of jihadist activity (al-Jazeera, September 25, 2014). Jund al-Khilafah filmed Gourdel’s beheading and presented the execution as an act of retaliation against France for its involvement in the anti-Islamic State military campaign in Iraq. the group’s decision to carry out a high-profile beheading as its first act of violence was emblematic of the Islamic State’s global





messaging strategy; in theaters outside of Iraq and Syria, the organization has repeatedly conducted spectacular attacks as a means of drawing attention to new Islamic State affiliates.However, although the Islamic State had announced its presence in Algeria with a bang, Jund al-Khilafah’s prospects thereafter declined rapidly. In December 2014—a month after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Islamic State’s amir, accepted Jund al-Khilafah’s pledge of allegiance and announced the creation of Wilayat al-Jazair (Algeria province)—the Algerian Army killed Gouri, who was Jund al-Khilafah’s top commander, and two other militants in a raid in northern Algeria (al-Arabiya, December 23, 2014). A crippling blow was delivered to Jund al-Khilafah in May 2015, when Algerian security forces killed approximately 25 Islamic State militants in two days of military operations in the mountains of Bouira Province (Reuters, May 20). At the time of the first raid, which resulted in the death of 22 fighters, Jund al-Khilafah’s top commanders had reportedly been meeting to plan major attacks, possibly in Algiers or against Algerian military facilities, and Algerian troops recovered a sizable weapons arsenal during the operation (El Watan [Algiers], May 22).The May raid devastated Jund al-Khilafah. International media reports placed the size of the group at only 30 fighters, meaning that the raid in May had wiped out almost all of the group’s manpower (New York Times, December 23, 2014). The raid also decimated Jund al-Khilafah’s leadership ranks: five of the group’s six commanders were killed in the operation, including Abdullah Othman al-Asimi (a.k.a. Bachir Kherza), who had been appointed to lead Jund al-Khilafah after Gouri’s death (El Watan [Algiers], May 24).Jund al-Khilafah’s precipitous collapse revealed the fragility of the Islamic State’s foothold in Algeria. Its rapid and highly public rise to prominence may have been to its detriment, as the group was not strong enough in its nascent stages to withstand the crackdown that inevitably followed the release of the beheading video. Indeed, though Jund al-Khilafah claimed responsibility for three minor attacks against security forces in February and March of 2015, the group has not mustered enough force to carry out another high-profile attack since the kidnapping and beheading of Gourdel (Jihadology, March 19). And while Jund al-Khilafah had reportedly been in the process of wooing AQIM fighters based in southern Algeria and northern Mali, the near obliteration of the group in May likely curtailed these recruitment operations and reduced the Islamic State’s influence in the region (El Khabar [Algiers], July 21).Jund al-Khilafah, or what remains of the group, is now a strategically irrelevant player in Algeria. Though remnants of the group may continue to operate in the Kabylie region, the group does not presently possess the manpower or resources to significantly threaten Algeria’s security or AQIM’s Algerian network.

Smoke and Mirrors: Islamic State’s Propaganda Strategy in AlgeriaWith its physical network in Algeria decimated, the Islamic State has turned to its propaganda machine to help reestablish itself in the country. In particular, the group has exploited social media and other platforms to create the illusion that militants in Algeria are defecting from AQIM and flocking to the Islamic State in droves. According to their logic, if the Islamic State can foster the perception that it is ascendant and AQIM is internally factious, it can persuade Algerian jihadists to defect from AQIM. Thus, the Islamic State’s strategy is designed to turn the myth of momentum into a reality. This is an approach that the organization has also implemented in other areas where it is seeking to expand, including Afghanistan and Somalia.The primary means by which the Islamic State has sought to cultivate momentum in





Algeria is by publicizing pledges of allegiance that Algerian jihadists have made. Four jihadist groups have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State since Jund al-Khilafah did so, with some of the pledges timed to maximize the attention they receive. The first pledge of allegiance that the Islamic State received in 2015 came in May from a group of fighters in Skikda Province, in eastern Algeria. [1] The pledge, which was issued via audio statement, provided little information on the members of the Skikda faction, aside from the fact that they had previously been aligned with AQIM. The next pledge of allegiance came in late July, when militants claiming to be part of AQIM’s al-Ghuraba Brigade, which operates in the vicinity of the eastern Algerian city of Constantine, announced their defection to the Islamic State in an audio statement and called upon other AQIM members to join the other group as well. [2] In early August, Islamic State militants from Iraq’s Saladin Province released a video praising the al-Ghuraba militants, thereby drawing further attention to the defection. [3]The Islamic State’s next moves in Algeria further showed how the group manipulates social media to inflate its presence and create the perception of discord within rival jihadist organizations. On September 3, Islamic State Twitter supporters released a video of the al-Ghuraba cell’s pledge of allegiance (only an audio statement had been released when the group initially pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in July). The next day, militants claiming to be from AQIM’s al-Ansar Brigade, which operates in central Algeria, released an audio statement announcing their defection. [4] The re-release of the al-Ghuraba militants’ pledge of allegiance appears to have been strategically timed to coincide with the pledge from the al-Ansar Brigade, creating the illusion that AQIM militants were defecting to the Islamic State en masse. Approximately two weeks after the pledge of allegiance from the al-Ansar militants, Humat al-Da’wah al-Salafiyah, a low profile Algerian jihadist group that had joined AQIM in 2013, announced that it too was pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (SITE, September 22). The organization’s social media operatives immediately sought to publicize the defections; one prolific pro-Islamic State Twitter account remarked that a new group was defecting from AQIM to the Islamic State every day, while another Twitter supporter claimed that AQIM was fracturing as a result of Islamic State pressure. [5] [6]Despite the Islamic State’s efforts to foment unrest within AQIM, the group has been unsuccessful in turning the impression of strength into a reality. None of the four groups that have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Algeria in 2015 have carried out an attack since joining. Indeed, there is reason to believe that some of these groups comprise fewer than a dozen militants; one news report claimed that the al-Ghuraba and Skikda cells had been inactive for several years, and also noted that the al-Ghuraba cell consisted of no more than ten fighters (al-Arabi al-Jadeed [London], July 27). The situation has become so grim for the Islamic State in Algeria that the group itself has acknowledged its struggles. On October 21, the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jazair released an audio statement in which a militant reassured jihadists that the group’s presence in Algeria was sustainable, and urged Islamic State fighters in Algeria not to risk their lives unnecessarily, fearing a repeat of Jund al-Khilafah’s collapse. [7] That the Islamic State, a group that endlessly parades its victories and conceals its defeats, felt the need to reassure its supporters in Algeria that it was still relevant reveals the organization’s bleak prospects in the country.

AQIM’s Response to the Islamic State ThreatOne explanation for Islamic State’s struggles in Algeria is the strong front that AQIM has presented against encroachment. AQIM has implemented a two-pronged strategy to counter the Islamic State’s influence in Algeria. On the propaganda front, AQIM has





sought to discredit the other group. For instance, in July 2015, AQIM released a statement via Twitter accusing the Islamic State of sowing discord within the jihadist community and blaming the group for inciting a jihadist civil war in the Libyan city of Derna. [8] AQIM has also directly undercut the Islamic State’s propaganda operations in Algeria; following the al-Ansar Brigade’s pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State, AQIM released a statement claiming that the al-Ansar Brigade remained loyal to al-Qaeda, and said that no more than ten men from the brigade had defected. [9]In addition, AQIM has intensified its military operations in Algeria to demonstrate to militants that it remains the most potent jihadist force in the country and that defections from AQIM to the Islamic State have not diminished AQIM’s military capabilities. In July 2015, AQIM carried out an attack that amounted to a show of force, killing at least nine Algerian soldiers in the Ain Defla region southwest of Algiers (Reuters, July 19). In a statement, AQIM noted that it had carried out the attack, the bloodiest jihadist operation in Algeria in over a year, in response to Algerian military claims that the militant group had been “eradicated and destroyed.” [10] However, the attack also sent a clear message to the Islamic State, and to AQIM’s own fighters, that AQIM was still a force to be reckoned with in Algeria. Since the Ain Defla incident, AQIM, which had been largely inactive militarily in 2014, has carried out several more attacks inside Algeria, suggesting that AQIM has made a strategic decision to ramp up its operational tempo in Algeria to ward off a challenge from the Islamic State.

Implications for AlgeriaAQIM’s escalation in response to the challenge from the Islamic State comes at a fraught time for Algeria, whose policymakers and security officials are preoccupied with resolving the conflicts in Libya and Mali and preventing spillover into the country. These security challenges also come as tensions between Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and the DRS, Algeria’s powerful intelligence service, are mounting. In addition, in the background is the potential succession crisis when Bouteflika, whose health has deteriorated following a stroke in 2013, eventually passes away. These concerns are compounded by persistent economic and social discontent among the Algerian population; in early 2015, thousands of Algerians took to the streets of Algiers and other cities to protest against corruption, political and economic stagnation and the government’s decision to begin fracking for shale gas in southern Algeria.AQIM’s resurgence and the lingering threat of Islamic State expansion therefore poses yet another challenge for Algerian policymakers. Even though the Islamic State has proven incapable of gaining a foothold in Algeria thus far, the group’s expansion efforts have still had a negative impact on Algeria’s security, as AQIM increases its operations against Algerian security forces in response to the Islamic State challenge. In addition, AQIM’s attempts to out-compete the Islamic State through conducting attacks will almost certainly intensify if the latter manages to solidify its presence in Algeria. As such, the competition between the Islamic State and AQIM can be expected to have an outsize impact on Algeria’s security and stability in the coming months.Nathaniel Barr is a threat analyst at Valens Global, a D.C.-based consulting firm that focuses on the global challenges posed by violent non-state actors.Notes1. For the audio clip of “Statement from the Mujahidin: Bay’ah To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” see http://jihadology.net/category/countries/algeria/page/2/.2. For the audio clip of “Bay’ah of the Mujahidin in the City of Qusantinah (Constantine)





To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Joining The Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jaza’ir,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/07/25/new-audio-message-from-sarayyah-al-ghuraba-bayah-of-the-mujahidin-in-the-city-of-qusan%E1%B9%ADinah-constantine-to-the-caliph-of-the-muslims-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-and-joining-the-islamic-state/.3. For the video clip of “One Body #2: Congratulations To Our Brothers In Algeria – Wilayat Salah al-Din,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/08/10/new-video-message-from-the-islamic-state-one-body-2-congratulations-to-our-brothers-in-algeria-wilayat-%E1%B9%A3ala%E1%B8%A5-al-din/.4. For the audio clip of “Statement from the Mujahidin: Bay’ah To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Joining The Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jaza’ir,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/09/04/new-audio-message-from-katibat-al-an%E1%B9%A3ar-statement-from-the-mujahidin-bayah-to-the-caliph-of-the-muslims-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-and-joining-the-islamic-states-wilayat-al-jaz/.5. Tweets from Twitter account of M. Gharib al-Ikhwan (@bhbhbhbh131), September 21, 2015.6. Tweets from Twitter account of Uyun al-Ummah (@Oyoon_is), September 21, 2015.7. For the audio clip of “One Body – Wilayat al-Jaza’ir”, see https://archive.org/details/algasd.8. Tweets from Twitter account of @AI_Andalus, July 7, 2015.9. For the statement from AQIM, titled “About the Rumor of the Allegiance of Katibat al-Ansar to the ‘State Organization,’” see https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/al-qc481_idah-in-the-islamic-maghrib-22about-the-rumor-of-the-allegiance-of-katc4abbat-al-ane1b9a3c481r-to-the-state-organization22.pdf.10. For the statement from AQIM, titled “The Raid of Jebel al-Luh: The Destruction of 14 Soldiers and Spoils of Their Weapons,” see https://justpaste.it/Jbl_Allouh.

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