Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-19-Russia

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-19-Russia

The foreign-backed terrorists fighting against President Bashar al-Assad's government have lost over one third of their militants in battles across Syria, a military expert said. "The terrorists have lost over 35 percent of their militants as a result of the Russian airstrikes and intensified Syrian army attacks in the past four weeks," the Arabic-language al-Akhbariya TV quoted

The army and the resistance forces killed hundreds of the foreign-backed terrorists in the battle over capturing Khan Touman

The Takfiri terrorists have lost over 65 percent of their commanders and over 60 percent of their arms and ammunition depots as well as over 50 percent of their command and control centers," the Syrian military expert added.

Over 200 militants from Chechnya and the Central Asian countries were executed by the ISIL after they tried to defect and join the Al-Nusra Front, the Arabic-language Russiya al-Youm quoted a former ISIL commander who recently defected the terrorist group as saying. A sum of 3,671 Chechen terrorists have been killed and 1,397 others have been missing in Syria.

Cutting the sources of the ISIL wealth is crucial to bringing peace to the region, said Kara-Mustapha, since then the organization will not be able to fund the equipment or soldiers needed to fight. "In essence if you remove the funds, you are actually cutting off, slowly but surely, all the limbs of the ISIL. Perhaps not the head, and it’s a slow process, but you are considerably weakening it."

Antonov once again called on Western and leading Middle Eastern states to “adhere to Putin’s timely proposal to join the broad coalition” to fight the Islamic State with Russia, al-Assad, Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah and “jointly choose bombing targets.” But Russian officials and the Kremlin are clearly frustrated and running out of patience with the lack of real progress in anything connected to Syria

The Russian Federation has made a responsible decision to use armed force to defend the people of Syria from the sorrows caused by the arbitrary actions of terrorists. We believe this decision will bring peace and justice closer to this ancient land. Wishing peace to the people of Syria, Iraq and other countries, we pray for this harsh conflict not to develop into a major war, for the use of force not to lead to the death of civilians and for all Russian military personnel to return home alive. The "holy war" headlines were prompted by one of the Patriarchate's blunter spokesmen, Father Vsevolod Chaplin

TEHRAN (FNA Oct 30)- Middle East expert Hafsa Kara-Mustapha said three weeks of Russian airstrikes have dramatically weakened the ISIL's capacity to raise the funds necessary for its terror operations, in contrast to the US-led air campaign over the past year. US-led airstrikes on the ISIL in Iraq and Syria were ineffective and even allowed the organization to continue to spread its influence, using oil money to finance its expansion into Syria, Kara-Mustapha told Radio Sputnik. In Iraq, the ISIL was able to capitalize on the state infrastructure for oil production which was abandoned as a result of the invasion of the country in 2003, the spoils of which it used to finance more equipment and fighters."It's free oil for them so they're selling it at whatever price which is convenient for them, and of course any price, any money that is generated is basically free money," since the oil

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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sales are carried out in the unregulated black market, the expert explained. "They are basically running a mini oil industry thanks to very unscrupulous middlemen, who are benefitting from cheap oil and all this volatility in which they're buying very cheap oil, reselling at sky-high prices, making a profit and at the same time encouraging the terrorist organization to flourish." Cutting the sources of the ISIL wealth is crucial to bringing peace to the region, said Kara-Mustapha, since then the organization will not be able to fund the equipment or soldiers needed to fight. "In essence if you remove the funds, you are actually cutting off, slowly but surely, all the limbs of the ISIL. Perhaps not the head, and it’s a slow process, but you are considerably weakening it."

ISIS 'Declares War on Christians'Photoshopped image of ISIS flag over Vatican appears on major ISIS publication, as fears of ME Christian community disappearing intensify. Oct 14 Islamic State (ISIS) has published a new edition of the propaganda booklet Dabiq, which is again signaling its primary enemy - Christianity. On the cover page of the booklet is a photo of the Vatican bearing the ISIS flag, along with the terror group's desires to conquer Rome and "break the cross." According to some Islamic traditions, the founder of Islam Mohammed predicted that the occupation of the three cities of Istanbul, Jerusalem and Rome pave the way for the appearance of the Mahdi, the Islamic Messiah. The declaration surfaces amid growing concern over the widespread persecution of Christians in the Middle East. The cause sparked a joint conference between the International Christian Embassy in Jerusalem (ICEJ) and the World Jewish Congress (WJC) in Jerusalem earlier this week, and an impassioned speech on regional issues by an Israeli Christian Arab leader to the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) last month. "Across the Middle East, in the last ten years, 100,000 Christians have been murdered each year. That means that every five minutes a Christian is killed because of his faith," Father Gabriel Nadaf, who has campaigned for Christian Arab rights and for local Christians to support Israel, told the UNHRC in September."Those who can escape persecution at the hands of Muslim extremists have fled... Those who remain, exist as second if not third class citizens to their Muslim rulers." Some 12 million Christians were estimated to have lived in the Middle East in total, according to a July estimate in the Guardian, but that number has been thought to have decreased drastically since ISIS's summer takeover in Iraq.The Christian community has faced dire persecution in a variety of Middle Eastern countries over the past 2-3 years, with a systemic crackdown on religious dissidents intensifying as the region shifted more toward radical Islam. In Egypt, Coptic Christians have been targeted by violence from the Muslim Brotherhood ad Salafi groups. In Syria, Al-Qaeda linked rebels have threatened to kill Christians who do not join the fight against President Bashar Al-Assad. Iran has persecuted Christians relentlessly as well, recently making headlines for burning the lips of a Christian man caught eating during the Ramadan fast.





Syria's 'holy war'AT THE beginning of this month, when Russian jet fighters went into action in Syria, it was widely reported that Russia and its national church had proclaimed a "holy war" against Islamic State. In fact, these reports somewhat distorted what the Russian Orthodox church said. It would have been amazing if (given that he maintains, with official encouragement, cordial ties with Muslim leaders inside and outside Russia) the Patriarch of Moscow had made any statement that implied a generalised conflict between Christianity and Islam. What Patriarch Kirill, speaking as de facto chaplain to the nation, said was a bit more cautious: The Russian Federation has made a responsible decision to use armed force to defend the people of Syria from the sorrows caused by the arbitrary actions of terrorists. We believe this decision will bring peace and justice closer to this ancient land. Wishing peace to the people of Syria, Iraq and other countries, we pray for this harsh conflict not to develop into a major war, for the use of force not to lead to the death of civilians and for all Russian military personnel to return home alive. The "holy war" headlines were prompted by one of the Patriarchate's blunter spokesmen, Father Vsevolod Chaplin; and even he didn't exactly call for an inter-religious or inter-cultural war. What the cleric said, word for word, was as follows: "The struggle against terrorism is a blessed [literally, sanctified] struggle and today, our country is the most active force in the world that is taking part in the struggle against [terrorism]. Not because she has any selfish interest in this, but because terrorism is an amoral force."

Syria's 'holy war'An Oct. 16 statement by the Russian Orthodox Church declaring Russia's intervention in Syria a “holy war” has sparked considerable debate and concern in Lebanon and other parts of the Arab Mashreq given the possible repercussions for the existence and role of Christians in the area. The church's position was quickly countered by a Muslim campaign calling for Islamic jihad. Jabhat al-Nusra Sheikh Abu Hassan al-Kuwaiti offered 1 million Syrian pounds (approximately $5,300) to anyone who abducts a Russian soldier, while Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, chairman of International Union for Muslim Scholars, complained, “If we defend our homelands and our homes in the name of Islam, which we believe in, we are accused of terrorism, yet Russia is bombing Syria and the opposition under the auspices of holy war.” The buzz in Lebanon about the statement comes as no





surprise. After all, Lebanon is a Middle Eastern country with a prominent Christian community in terms of its political representation and historical role. This is not the first time that religious authorities and movement leaders have tackled the sanctity of wars in the region. The history of the ancient Mashreq is riddled with examples. More recently, during a speech in 2014, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raised the banner of “Sacred Defense” in summing up the “story of the Iranian people’s resilience.” Much earlier, in January 2009, Osama bin Laden had called for jihad to stop an Israeli war on Gaza. On July 2 of this year in Yemen, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi implored his supporters to wage holy jihad to confront the military campaign led by Saudi Arabia, which is heading a coalition to support Yemeni government forces. In other words, the region has been the site of numerous calls for jihad by Sunnis as well as Shiites. What has surprised everyone about the Russian statement is its being issued by a Christian religious authority. This is unusual for the Middle East and brings to mind the Crusades, fought between the 11th and 13th centuries and backed by the Catholic Church. The place of the Crusades in the collective memory of the peoples of the Mashreq is common knowledge, as is awareness of the deep and still raw wounds they left behind.The Russian Orthodox statement nonetheless produced a few positive echoes among Christians in Syria and in particular in Lebanon, where some members of the community, mainly members of the March 8 coalition, which includes the overwhelmingly Christian Free Patriotic Movement, support the Bashar al-Assad regime. Regardless of the reasoning behind this support for Assad — be it out of a conviction that the regime is needed to protect minorities from extremist groups or due to motives related to political conflicts in Lebanon — according to the local press, some of Assad’s Lebanese supporters are betting on Russia’s intervention to position a pro-Syrian candidate for the Lebanese presidency. Thus for them, this issue is not only whether the Russian church's position is to justify or cover Moscow’s pro-regime actions. The Russian military intervention is being used in the Lebanese political equation, as evidenced by pictures of President Vladimir Putin being raised during a Free Patriotic Movement demonstration Oct. 11.Countering the Russian church's position on the sanctity of military operations in Syria, Elias Audi, metropolitan bishop of the Greek Orthodox Church for the archdiocese of Beirut, declared in an Oct. 18 sermon, “Those who kill shall not be blessed. Human life is the preserve of the Lord, and he who kills humans in some way intends to kill the Lord.” He further stated, “The church does not bless wars and does not qualify them as sacred. It does not sanctify wars and does not accept such statements.”In the same vein, Tarek Mitri, a prominent Orthodox intellectual close to the church, issued a set of positions against the church as a propaganda tool for the politically powerful and highlighted Moscow's contradictory positions on foreign intervention. On Oct. 2, Mitri, also a former government minister and director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, tweeted, “Russian intervention is to defend Assad or bring him to negotiation in a position of strength. Defense of Christians is domestic propaganda.” A few seconds earlier, he had tweeted, “Russian Church used a peace language against the 2003 US war on Iraq. It uses today the language of ‘holy war’ in support of Putin in Syria.”Antoine Courban, an anthropologist who signed a petition by Orthodox intellectuals published Oct. 17 denouncing the Russian Orthodox statement, told Al-Monitor, “The Eastern Orthodox Church does not believe in the sanctity of wars, as opposed to the Russian Orthodox Church, which blessed the taking up of arms, probably based on the thought of St. Augustine.” The fourth-century philosopher-bishop introduced





the idea of just war to theological philosophy, and the Catholic Church used it to justify its crusades.The aftershocks of the Russian Orthodox statement traveled beyond Christians, troubling other minorities as well. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt on Oct. 24 saluted Metropolitan Audi and Georges Khodr, Greek Orthodox bishop of Mount Lebanon, who, according to him, “represent the conscience of the Eastern Orthodox Church, its free voice and broad horizon at a time when isolation and extremism are sweeping across the whole world and the Arab and Islamic region in particular.” Jumblatt further asserted, “The Islamic State [IS] cannot be confronted with a Christian IS.”Whatever the doctrinal position of the Russian Orthodox Church, its sanctification of the war being waged by Putin in Syria represents politics par excellence. Its primary intent is to serve the Kremlin leader, and it was probably made upon his request. That said, the positions voiced in Lebanon, for and against the statement, have also been political.The statement by the Eastern Orthodox Church members was not aimed at sparking a (figurative or literal) “byzantine” debate, but at protecting Orthodox Christians from the religious wars plaguing the Islamic Mashreq communities. The church is no doubt aware that minorities are the weakest in this deadly international game and the most likely to pay a price. If Putin loses, revenge will be the name of the game, and minorities could face reprisals. If he wins, grudges will be settled, and grudges in the Arab world are ticking time bombs.

The Iraqi government said Wednesday, Oct 28 it didn't ask for — and doesn't need — the "direct action on the ground" promised by the Pentagon. The revelation came a day after Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said the U.S. may carry out more unilateral ground raids — like last week's rescue operation to free hostages — in Iraq to target ISIS militants. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's spokesman told NBC News that any military involvement in the country must be cleared through the Iraqi government just as U.S.-led airstrikes are. "This is an Iraqi affair and the government did not ask the U.S. Department of Defense to be involved in direct operations," spokesman Sa'ad al-Hadithi told NBC News. "We have enough soldiers on the ground." Hadithi's response to the prospect of U.S. direct involvement comes amid mounting pressure from Iraq's ruling coalition on the prime minister to request Russian airstrikes against ISIS. Moscow's move to mount strikes against ISIS in Syria has put the U.S. and Russia at odds. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Iraq did not ask Russia to carry out raids on terrorist Daash, so we will not do it.” He said during a meeting with the International Valdai Club in Sochi station quoted Russian / RT / Channel that “the terrorists will gain official status in case if Damascus or Baghdad fell,” stressing that “the Russian operation in Syria come to bring peace.

Moscow Still Calling on West to Join ‘Broad’ Anti-IS Coalition, but Patience Is Running ThinPublication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 196October 29, 2015 By: Pavel Felgenhauer The Russian military has intensified the bombing campaign in Syria to its limit. Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials told journalists that, on October 27, Russian bombers flew 71 sorties and hit 118 targets in the northwestern Syrian provinces of Idilb, Hama, Homs and Aleppo as well as Damascus in the south (Interfax, October 28). According to MoD sources, Russian military aircraft deployed at the Hymeymim airbase in Latakia include a squadron of 12 modernized Su-25SM attack jets, a squadron of 12 modernized Su-24M bombers, a subsquadron of 6 new





multipurpose Su-34 bombers, a subsquadron of 4 Su-30CM fighter-bombers, a squadron of 12 Mi-8MTV multipurpose helicopters and a squadron of 12 Mi-24 helicopter gunships. The Russian force in Syria reportedly also has a number of drones and one An-20 spy plane. Only the Su-25, Su-24 and Su-34 jets are reportedly involved in bombing sorties. The Su-30s are deployed exclusively as fighters, and the helicopters, including the Mi-24, are only going out on support missions to guard the Hymeymim airbase and act as flying decoys to deflect possible ground-to-air missile attacks by Syrian rebels when the jets are landing or taking off (Rbc.ru, October 28). It is practically impossible that all 30 jets directly involved in bombing are 100 percent battle ready every day of a prolonged air campaign (war jets need regular maintenance). With 71 reported daily sorties, it would seem Russian jets are flying two, or possibly more, combat sorties a day.The Russian attack jets in Syria are flying, bombing, returning to refuel, rearming and

taking off again on combat missions in an attempt to rout the Syrian opposition and help forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad reclaim major cities, including Aleppo. This week (October 28), the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov quoted President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly told visiting German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel: “Only after the defeat of extremist and terrorist forces in Syria is it possible to begin the process of political reconciliation. To do the opposite [to begin political reconciliation in Syria before defeating the armed opposition] is absolutely senseless and illogical” (RIA Novosti, October 28). The Russian military began their air campaign in Syria on September 30; al-Assad’s forces and allies from Hezbollah, Iran and Iraq began a land offensive to flush out the opposition on October 7. The Russian military command is telling journalists their air campaign is highly successful: The opposition fighters have lost most of their heavy weapons and ordinance and are “on the run” (RIA Novosti, October 28).





In fact, al-Assad’s forces have achieved only limited success. No major rebel-held strong points have been reported captured, and the advance of the embattled Syrian regime’s forces has been painstakingly slow. The rebels are resisting and sometimes reportedly counterattacking. The mass-circulation pro-Kremlin daily Komsomolskaya Pravda is reporting from Syria that al-Assad’s forces are short of manpower, their armor and heavy equipment is mothballed and their fighting spirit is not at its best; while the rebels (labeled “terrorists” by Russia) are well entrenched and not easy to dislodge with airstrikes. The overall conclusion: “No blitzkrieg in Syria—the rebels are rattled by Russian airstrikes, the ground offensive is developing, but it will go slow” (Komsomolskaya Pravda, October 22).The Kremlin’s main strategic objective in Syria is not so much control of the Middle Eastern country itself or the fate of President al-Assad, though maintaining a friendly regime in Damascus is important. Rather, Putin seeks a new world order, based on an anti–Islamic State (anti-terrorist) “broad coalition” that would include the United States and other Western countries. For Putin, an overall understanding founded on facing a common enemy must include the termination of sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia for the annexation of Crimea and engagement in fighting in eastern Ukraine (see EDM, September 17). Meanwhile, some influential forces in the West seek to restore business as usual with Moscow. This week, in the Kremlin, Vice Chancellor Gabriel expressed a strong desire to move past the unfortunate Ukrainian issue and resume excellent Russo-German relations. Gabriel announced he sees a convergence of views with Russia on Syria and expressed strong support for Putin’s grand plan to double the capacity of the gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, known as Nord Stream Two (see EDM, September 15), which would bring Gazprom’s natural gas to Germany, bypassing Ukraine. According to Gabriel, the Ukrainian gas transport system is mothballed and “Germany is very much interested in Nord Stream Two,” which may be swiftly built “if politicians and the [European] Commission do not interfere—it must be a purely German decision” (Kremlin.ru, October 28).Gabriel and Putin’s other influential foreign friends are keeping alive the hope that a “broad coalition” and a new Putin-friendly world order is achievable. But the progress in building this coalition and a world order that would allow Moscow to dominate Ukraine and other neighbors seems frustratingly slow, as is the advance of al-Assad’s forces. At present, the Russian force deployed in Latakia cannot do much more—it is already fighting at full capacity. Russia’s uncertainty on what to do next in Syria is causing anxiety and triggering bouts of traditional anti-Western paranoia. On October 27, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov—a top career diplomat who, in 2011, was attached to the MoD to oversee international relations—gathered in Moscow the military attachés from Saudi Arabia and leading NATO countries, including Turkey. The purpose of this meeting was for Antonov to complain on behalf of the Russian government about “outrageous publications in English-language media” that purportedly have been falsely accusing the Russian air force of bombing the moderate Syrian opposition and of killing civilians in Syria. According to the deputy defense minister, Moscow demands that Western governments ether come up with indisputable facts to corroborate the accusations or officially disavow these claims. If, in a couple of days, Western governments fail to censure and condemn the alleged falsehoods published by the English-language media, Moscow will consider “all this to be part of an anti-Russian information war” (Mil.ru, October 27).In addition, Antonov once again called on Western and leading Middle Eastern states to “adhere to Putin’s timely proposal to join the broad coalition” to fight the Islamic State with





Russia, al-Assad, Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah and “jointly choose bombing targets.” But Russian officials and the Kremlin are clearly frustrated and running out of patience with the lack of real progress in anything connected to Syria

TEHRAN (FNA Oct 12 )- The Syrian army and the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance forces opened their way into the strategic town of Khan Touman in the province of Aleppo on Friday. The army and the resistance forces killed hundreds of the foreign-backed terrorists in the battle over capturing Khan Touman. Heavy clashes between the Syrian army and the terrorists are currently underway in Khan Touman. Battlefield reports said the army and the resistance forces have earned the upper hand and seem to take full control of Khan Touman in the coming hours. Earlier today, field sources announced that the army and the Hezbollah launched a fresh round of joint operations in South of Aleppo and recaptured farms between the strategic towns of Khan Touman and Qarass. The sources said that the Syrian Army’s 4th Mechanized Division, in coordination with Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba (Iraqi Hezbollah), the National Defense Forces (NDF), and Kataebat Al-Ba’ath, carried out a successful mission to capture the farms in Southern Aleppo. The Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese Resistance surprised the militants of Harakat Noureddine Al-Zinki, Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Liwaa Suqour Al-Sham and Al-Nusra Front with an assault at several locations. With these farms under control, the Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese Resistance had the ability to attack Khan Touman from two different flanks (East and North); previously, they only had access to the Northern perimeter of the aforementioned town. The purpose of the Khan Touman offensive is to cutoff the Aleppo-Damascus International Highway that is used by the militants in Idlib to transport supplies to their comrades in Southern Aleppo.

TEHRAN (FNA 30 Oct)- The foreign-backed terrorists fighting against President Bashar al-Assad's government have lost over one third of their militants in battles across Syria, a military expert said. "The terrorists have lost over 35 percent of their militants as a result of the Russian airstrikes and intensified Syrian army attacks in the past four weeks," the Arabic-language al-Akhbariya TV quoted Syrian military strategist Salim Harba as saying on Thursday. Harba reiterated that the terrorists have been substantially weakened in the past month. The Takfiri terrorists have lost over 65 percent of their commanders and over 60 percent of their arms and ammunition depots as well as over 50 percent of their command and control centers," the Syrian military expert added. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday that Russia's fighter jets had carried out 71 sorties and hit 118 terrorist targets in Syria's provinces of Idlib, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus and Lattakia on Tuesday. "Russian air group's aircraft in Syria have conducted 71 sorties and hit 118 terrorist targets in Idlib, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus and Lattakia in the past 24 hours," the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman said. The number of sorties the Russian Aerospace Forces are conducting has grown due the increased number of confirmed intelligence data on terrorist infrastructure in Syria, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said. "As you see, the number of sorties has grown due to the increased amount of intelligence data on terrorist infrastructure targets confirmed via various channels." Russian Su-24M jets destroyed a terrorist command center with a communication center and a major ammunition depot near Salma in the Lattakia province, he said, adding that unmanned aerial vehicles had uncovered the target. "As a result of an Su-24M airstrike the object was completely destroyed." The Russian Aerospace Forces also hit a Jaysh al-Islam terrorist command center with a communication center in the Damascus province, Konashenkov said, adding that the coordination of militants in the





region has been disrupted due to the strike. The Russian aviation also launched airstrikes on camouflaged terrorist bases in Syria.

EHRAN (FNA Oct 30)- ISIL executed tens of its own militants after they tried to defect the terrorist group and flee the battlefield in Raqqa under Russian airstrikes. Over 200 militants from Chechnya and the Central Asian countries were executed by the ISIL after they tried to defect and join the Al-Nusra Front, the Arabic-language Russiya al-Youm quoted a former ISIL commander who recently defected the terrorist group as saying.He said that the defectors were headed to a natural hole in the ground in the countryside of al-Raqqa where they were murdered and their bodies dumped. "Another 21 militants of Caucasian nationalities were gunned down by ISIL in August after they left their guard posts," the defector commander said. He noted that the 21 were executed militants with heavy machineguns before they could escape the battle over Aleppo's military airport. In July, a report said that Chechnya stood atop the list of nations who have the largest number of militants fighting against the Syrian government. According to the report by the Lebanon-based Al-Manar satellite TV, Chechnya, with 14,000 militants, ranks first among the world countries - which also include European nations and the US - whose citizens have joined the terrorists in Syria. The report also said that Turkey plays the most important role in sneaking terrorists from Chechnya and other countries into Syria. A sum of 3,671 Chechen terrorists have been killed and 1,397 others have been missing in Syria. A recent UN report revealed that terrorists from 29 countries have so far infiltrated into Syria to fight against the Damascus government, most of whom are extremist Salafists.

Russia’s Syria Intervention and the Implications for the South CaucasusPublication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 193 October 26, 2015 By: Zaur Shiriyev The wider South Caucasus region is conspicuously located between the battlefields of Syria and the Caspian Sea. Therefore, Russia’s use of cruise missiles, launched (on October 7) by ships belonging to its Caspian Flotilla, to hit targets in Syria had inadvertently put the region briefly under the media spotlight. Early reports suggested that the flight path of at least some of these missiles may have violated Azerbaijani airspace. But this information was subsequently proven to be false when the Russian Ministry of Defense demonstrated that the 26 fired Kalibr-class cruise missiles crossed Iranian and Iraqi airspace en route to Syria (TASS, October 7); meaning, pre-strike approval was not needed from Baku. To date, there has been no significant response from the leaders of the Caspian countries regarding Russia’s cruise missile launch or its wider military campaign in Syria. As for the South Caucasus countries, the only related public statement came from Armenia, which claimed that, on October 6–7, in connection with Russia’s Syrian operation, Turkish military helicopters violated the state border of Armenia (Regnum, October 10). Yerevan alleges this represented Ankara’s indirect response to Russia’s violation of Turkish airspace several times since Russian airstrikes started (see EDM, October 9). Russia clearly used the Caspian Flotilla cruise missile launch as a means of sending the West a message, but this action was likely intended to be a signal to the South Caucasus countries as well.

First, Moscow wanted to openly demonstrate Russian defense capabilities. President Vladimir Putin, for example, noted that “weapons launched from the Caspian





Sea’s waters, around 1,500 kilometers away, and [the fact that] all of the planned targets were destroyed is evidence of our defense industry’s good preparation” (Kremlin.ru, October 7). Thus, together, the show of force and Putin’s remarks played up the market value of Russian military equipment, which is regularly purchased by Caspian-region countries. As Azerbaijani military expert Reshad Karimov has pointed out, the Su-34 strike fighter as well as the rockets, bombs and Kalibr-class cruise missiles used by Russia in its Syrian operations are all on sale and ready for export (Facebook.com/reshad.karimov, October 8)

Second, since the start of Russia’s aerial campaign over Syria, the Russian media has repeatedly suggested that jihadists fighting in the conflict could pose a growing threat of religious extremism to nearby states such as Azerbaijan (Azeridaily.com, October 18). Such rhetoric is seen as a pretext for Russia to reinvigorate the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Anti-Terrorism Center (ATC) as a means of uniting the intelligence and information-gathering services of all CIS member states—but notably under Moscow’s guidance. Upon joining the CIS ATC, Azerbaijan signed a document, in 2000, agreeing to participate in all the Center’s activities; but these had to be information/analysis-based and strictly advisory in nature. Specifically, the agreement establishing the ATC excludes any information gathering or other activities by the Center on Azerbaijani territory. However, Russia apparently now wants to remove this limitation, and the Syrian operation provides Moscow with such an opportunity. Indeed, at the October 16 CIS summit, Putin elucidated this very link between the spread of religious extremism connected to the Syrian civil war and the need for joint intelligence gathering in the former Soviet space (Kremlin.ru, October 16). Immediately after this meeting, the Azerbaijani government sacked its security minister, Eldar Mahmudov—whose powerful ministry is, in part, tasked with fighting religious extremism (Azadliq.info, October 17). At least in part, Mahmudov’s dismissal may imply Baku’s growing concern that the ministry is failing to fulfil its duty, as the initial investigation indicates that numerous officials were involved in corruption deals (Milli.az, October 24). The ministry will have to be strengthened and reformed, though it is still uncertain whether or not this will play to Russian interests with regard to Moscow’s deep intelligence proposals, as voiced at the CIS summit. But what impact will Russia’s Syrian airstrikes ultimately have on jihadist activities in the Caucasus, and what are the wider security implications for the South Caucasus countries? For now, it may be far too early to even consider the defeat of the Islamic State (IS). Nonetheless, as Kamal Gasimov, an expert at the Baku-based Center for Strategic Studies argues, it is important to remember that if this militant group is weakening, most of its mujahedeen will travel to other locations where the jihadist movement remains alive (Author’s interview, October 16). At the same time, for transnational jihadists, the South Caucasus is a hub and a transit corridor, providing access to and from the North Caucasus as well as a route for jihadists through Turkey. Since Islamist militant groups fighting in the Syrian civil war are constantly looking to recruit more jihadists from the region, they are unlikely to begin fighting in this transit corridor, at least in the near future. Moreover, both al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates are currently engaged in major fighting in Syria and Iraq, so their resources are needed there rather than to be diverted to the Caucasus region. Taken together, this reduces the short-term security threats to Azerbaijan and Georgia—after all, a sudden wave of terrorist attacks in these countries could lead to a tightening of border controls as well as increased focus by security forces on local jihadist cells. In summary, for now the only visible negative implication of Moscow’s Syria intervention for the South Caucasus countries has been commercial. Specifically, some international airlines are altering their flight routes over





the Caspian Sea after Russian missiles launches from the sea created an unpredictable security situation in these air corridors (EurasiaNet, October 16). This could be a short-term security concern for international business circles, but it could just as easily become a long-term issue. The driving factors will ultimately depend on the scale and duration of Russia’s military involvement in Syria as well as on whether Moscow again flexes its Caspian Sea–based military capabilities.

Islamic State Branch in North Caucasus Follows Same Organizational Pattern as Caucasus Emirate Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 196 October 29, 2015 By: Mairbek Vatchagaev Rustam Asilderov, Dagestani militant accused of attempting to change the foundations of the constitution of Russia with the goal of violating the territorial integrity of the country (Source: Kavkavsky Uzel) The head of the Russian Investigative Committee’s branch in Dagestan, Eduard Kaburneyev, recently made public that a criminal investigation has been launched into the establishment of the “Velayat Dagestan of the Islamic State” criminal group (Gazeta.ru, October 22). The Investigative Committee has named Rustam Asilderov (Emir Abu Muhammad al-Qadari) and Gasan Abdullaev (Emir Abu Yaser) the organizers of the group, which they accuse of attempting to change the foundations of the constitution of Russia with the goal of violating the territorial integrity of the country. It took the Dagestani investigators a year to realize that a branch of the Islamic State (IS) had been established in the republic, and that its primary objective was “to carry out especially grave crimes, including terrorism” (Kavkazsky Uzel, October 23). The rebel amir of Dagestan’s Khasavyurt district, Suleiman Zailanabidov, was among the first to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Zailanabidov took the oath of allegiance on November 21, 2014. Later, on December 19, Rustam Asilderov, who was then the amir of Dagestan in the Caucasus Emirate, also pledged allegiance to the new caliph (Kavkazsky Uzel, December 20, 2014). In the summer 2015, Chechen and Ingush militants followed the lead and themselves joined the Islamic State. IS spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani made a special statement confirming the existence of an official IS branch in the North Caucasus (Nation-news.ru, June 24). The IS appointed Asilderov, who comes from Dagestan’s Kadar mountain gorge, leader of its North Caucasus branch (Topnews.ru, June 24). Amir Abu Yasir, who used to oversee the activities of the Caucasus Emirate in southern Dagestan, is another well-known leader of the Islamic State branch in the North Caucasus. Within the IS, he is still responsible for the Tabasaran, Derbent, Suleiman-Stalsky and Magaramkent districts in southern Dagestan. Abu Yasir is known for his highly secretive practices and creating new cells out of the new recruits. The recruits are normally locals who have a semi-legal status and are responsible for setting up their own groups. According to unconfirmed reports, Abu Yasir’s people were behind previous terrorist attacks in Russia, including the attempt to derail the Moscow–St. Petersburg fast train in the summer of 2011 (Kommersant, October 23). According to Dagestani investigators, insurgents often have no connection to their top leaders, which makes uncovering the militant networks especially difficult for the Russian intelligence services. The IS branch in the North Caucasus seems to have followed the same organizational pattern as the Caucasus Emirate. The Russian Investigative Committee launched an





investigation of 19 individuals, which indicates how many suspected members of the Islamic State network in the North Caucasus are known to the authorities. The figure of 19 is not realistic for Dagestan, where even cells in remote villages often have several members in them. Hundreds of active militants likely exist across the republic. In addition, there are probably thousands of sympathizers encouraging and financing the militants. The group of IS militants in Gimry, a village located in Dagestan’s Untsukul district, alone has 16 members, according to investigators (Operline.ru, October 23). Dozens of militants are found in southern Dagestan—two or three dozen in Khasavyurt and many more in Kizlyar, Makhachkala, Buinaksk and other places.According to investigators, the Velayat Dagestan finances itself by extorting businesses and officials, as well as through ransom payments (RIA Novosti, October 22). However, this is an oversimplified picture: in reality, Dagestan’s militants also certainly receive at least some funding from sources in the Middle East and Turkey.Having launched a criminal case, the Investigative Committee in Dagestan separated the Dagestani Velayat from the Chechen, Ingush and Kabardino-Balkarian jamaats. Having accused Abu Muhammad al-Qadari of being the leader of all North Caucasian militants operating under the auspices of the IS, the authorities are prosecuting him only for operating in Dagestan. Thus, Abu Muhammad al-Qadari is apparently considered guilty of establishing an IS branch in Dagestan, but not in the neighboring North Caucasian republics. Government forces declare any militant they kill in Dagestan to be a member of the Islamic State in the North Caucasus. For example, authorities have pronounced that Abdulla Nustapaev, who was killed in Gimry on October 24, was also an IS member (Vria.ru, October 24). In reality, Nustapaev was a member of a group of militants operating under the command of Magomed Suleimanov (Abu-Usman Gimrinsky). Suleimanov was the last amir of the Caucasus Emirate, and it is unlikely that one of his close associates, Nustapaev, managed to make connections with the IS and switch his allegiances within two months. President Vladimir Putin also spoke of the threat from the supporters of the Islamic State during his Kremlin meeting with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Putin said the Russian authorities could not afford to let militants who fight al-Assad’s forces in Syria to infiltrate into Russia, given that they had received military experience and ideological indoctrination. During that meeting, Putin pronounced that 4,000 militants from the post-Soviet space were fighting in Syria (Lifenews.ru, October 21). That figure, however, probably includes only Russian citizens fighting in Syria.By siding with al-Assad’s Alawite regime, Moscow went against Russia’s 20 million Sunni Muslims, who comprise the vast majority of the country’s Islamic community. They are insulted and humiliated by Russian support for the Syrian government, which is backed by Alawites and Shi’ites. The gap between the Russian government and the country’s Muslim population stands to increasingly widen the longer Russia’s intervention continues.




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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-19-Russia