An eLearning Weather An eLearning Weather Forecasting ContestForecasting Contest

David M. SchultzDavid M. SchultzCentre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environmental Science, University of ManchesterEnvironmental Science, University of Manchester

Stuart Anderson and Ryo Seo-ZindyStuart Anderson and Ryo Seo-ZindyeLearning Team, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, eLearning Team, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences,

University of ManchesterUniversity of Manchester

The class The class

EART 30551: MeteorologyEART 30551: Meteorology

40 Third-Year Environmental Science/Studies 40 Third-Year Environmental Science/Studies studentsstudents

No previous experience with meteorologyNo previous experience with meteorology

The goal is to get the students to… The goal is to get the students to…

see the practical application of the lecture see the practical application of the lecture materialmaterial

look at the weather outside of the lecture look at the weather outside of the lecture materialmaterial

engage their critical thinking skills (i.e., the engage their critical thinking skills (i.e., the answer is answer is notnot in the back of the book) in the back of the book)

Each week students must forecast:Each week students must forecast:

next day (Sat midnight to Sun midnight)next day (Sat midnight to Sun midnight)

official observing station at Woodford (outside of official observing station at Woodford (outside of Manchester) Manchester)

1. high temperature (1. high temperature (TT, whole °C), whole °C)

2. probability of precipitation: 0, 10, 20, …, 100%2. probability of precipitation: 0, 10, 20, …, 100%((PP: 0, 1, 2, …, 10): 0, 1, 2, …, 10)

Scoring systemScoring system

Score = |Score = |TTobsobs – – TTforecastforecast| x 8 + (| x 8 + (PPobsobs – – PPforecastforecast)^2)^2

PPobs obs = 0, if no precipitation= 0, if no precipitationPPobs obs = 5, if a trace= 5, if a tracePPobs obs = 10, if measurable precipitation (>=0.2 mm)= 10, if measurable precipitation (>=0.2 mm)

Missed forecasts receive 150 pointsMissed forecasts receive 150 points

Rules of the contestRules of the contest

Forecasts are due by 2300 Friday nightForecasts are due by 2300 Friday night

Participation is mandatory (10% of final mark)Participation is mandatory (10% of final mark)

Quality of forecasts is not assessedQuality of forecasts is not assessed

Best scores receive bonus marks at the end of the semesterBest scores receive bonus marks at the end of the semester

Best student forecaster receives 8 bonus marks, followed by Best student forecaster receives 8 bonus marks, followed by 6, 4, and 2 marks6, 4, and 2 marks

Best WorstBest Worst

Little relationship Little relationship between MetCast between MetCast score and average score and average score of five quizzesscore of five quizzes

Indicates that the Indicates that the contest assesses contest assesses different skills than different skills than the quizzesthe quizzes

Best WorstBest Worst

Little relationship Little relationship between MetCast between MetCast score and average score and average score of five quizzesscore of five quizzes

Indicates that the Indicates that the contest assesses contest assesses different skills than different skills than the quizzesthe quizzes

Allows students to Allows students to excel in different waysexcel in different ways

What the students thought: Online Survey What the students thought: Online Survey

Did forecasting contest help you understand Did forecasting contest help you understand the course material better?the course material better?YES: 18YES: 18 NO: 11NO: 11

Did your forecasts improve over the ten Did your forecasts improve over the ten weeks?weeks?YES: 16YES: 16 NO: 13NO: 13

What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey

What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey

What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey

Improvements for next year Improvements for next year

Better integration of forecast contest into Better integration of forecast contest into weather discussionsweather discussions

Postmordem discussion of last week’s Postmordem discussion of last week’s weather forecast to help improvementweather forecast to help improvement

Less harsh penalty for missed forecastLess harsh penalty for missed forecast

Dissemination of results Dissemination of results

Presentation submissions to upcoming Presentation submissions to upcoming GEES, Royal Meteorological Society, and GEES, Royal Meteorological Society, and National Centre for Atmospheric Science National Centre for Atmospheric Science conferencesconferences

Submission to Submission to Journal of Geoscience Journal of Geoscience Education Education after next years’ resultsafter next years’ results