An eLearning Weather An eLearning Weather Forecasting ContestForecasting Contest
David M. SchultzDavid M. SchultzCentre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environmental Science, University of ManchesterEnvironmental Science, University of Manchester
Stuart Anderson and Ryo Seo-ZindyStuart Anderson and Ryo Seo-ZindyeLearning Team, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, eLearning Team, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences,
University of ManchesterUniversity of Manchester
The class The class
EART 30551: MeteorologyEART 30551: Meteorology
40 Third-Year Environmental Science/Studies 40 Third-Year Environmental Science/Studies studentsstudents
No previous experience with meteorologyNo previous experience with meteorology
The goal is to get the students to… The goal is to get the students to…
see the practical application of the lecture see the practical application of the lecture materialmaterial
look at the weather outside of the lecture look at the weather outside of the lecture materialmaterial
engage their critical thinking skills (i.e., the engage their critical thinking skills (i.e., the answer is answer is notnot in the back of the book) in the back of the book)
Each week students must forecast:Each week students must forecast:
next day (Sat midnight to Sun midnight)next day (Sat midnight to Sun midnight)
official observing station at Woodford (outside of official observing station at Woodford (outside of Manchester) Manchester)
1. high temperature (1. high temperature (TT, whole °C), whole °C)
2. probability of precipitation: 0, 10, 20, …, 100%2. probability of precipitation: 0, 10, 20, …, 100%((PP: 0, 1, 2, …, 10): 0, 1, 2, …, 10)
Scoring systemScoring system
Score = |Score = |TTobsobs – – TTforecastforecast| x 8 + (| x 8 + (PPobsobs – – PPforecastforecast)^2)^2
PPobs obs = 0, if no precipitation= 0, if no precipitationPPobs obs = 5, if a trace= 5, if a tracePPobs obs = 10, if measurable precipitation (>=0.2 mm)= 10, if measurable precipitation (>=0.2 mm)
Missed forecasts receive 150 pointsMissed forecasts receive 150 points
Rules of the contestRules of the contest
Forecasts are due by 2300 Friday nightForecasts are due by 2300 Friday night
Participation is mandatory (10% of final mark)Participation is mandatory (10% of final mark)
Quality of forecasts is not assessedQuality of forecasts is not assessed
Best scores receive bonus marks at the end of the semesterBest scores receive bonus marks at the end of the semester
Best student forecaster receives 8 bonus marks, followed by Best student forecaster receives 8 bonus marks, followed by 6, 4, and 2 marks6, 4, and 2 marks
Best WorstBest Worst
Little relationship Little relationship between MetCast between MetCast score and average score and average score of five quizzesscore of five quizzes
Indicates that the Indicates that the contest assesses contest assesses different skills than different skills than the quizzesthe quizzes
Best WorstBest Worst
Little relationship Little relationship between MetCast between MetCast score and average score and average score of five quizzesscore of five quizzes
Indicates that the Indicates that the contest assesses contest assesses different skills than different skills than the quizzesthe quizzes
Allows students to Allows students to excel in different waysexcel in different ways
What the students thought: Online Survey What the students thought: Online Survey
Did forecasting contest help you understand Did forecasting contest help you understand the course material better?the course material better?YES: 18YES: 18 NO: 11NO: 11
Did your forecasts improve over the ten Did your forecasts improve over the ten weeks?weeks?YES: 16YES: 16 NO: 13NO: 13
What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey
What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey
What the students thought: Written Survey What the students thought: Written Survey
Improvements for next year Improvements for next year
Better integration of forecast contest into Better integration of forecast contest into weather discussionsweather discussions
Postmordem discussion of last week’s Postmordem discussion of last week’s weather forecast to help improvementweather forecast to help improvement
Less harsh penalty for missed forecastLess harsh penalty for missed forecast
Dissemination of results Dissemination of results
Presentation submissions to upcoming Presentation submissions to upcoming GEES, Royal Meteorological Society, and GEES, Royal Meteorological Society, and National Centre for Atmospheric Science National Centre for Atmospheric Science conferencesconferences
Submission to Submission to Journal of Geoscience Journal of Geoscience Education Education after next years’ resultsafter next years’ results