Analisis Hujan sekayu

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HUJAN HARIAN MAKSIMUM DPS RANDANGAN DI BANGUNAN UTAMA RANDANGAN Tahun Marisa 63.00 46.00 126.00 69.00 63.50 63.30 51.20 85.60 Motolohu 108.60 58.00 107.70 48.50 60.00 76.00 66.00 81.00 Buntulia Utara Marisa IV Hujan DPS 85.80 76.67 109.93 83.93 68.00 89.30 64.45 78.38 47.00 48.00 42.90 77.80 12 72.68

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Jumlah data MeanSumber :

126.00 126.20 138.00 73.00 138.40 61.00 60.90 47.00 48.00 42.90 77.80 11 85.38

79.80 80.20 75.50 79.50 79.60 86.00

8 70.95

8 75.73

Hasil analisis Konsultan

Distribusi Normaln 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weibull Data 42.9 47 48 64.45 68 76.67 77.8 78.38 83.93 85.8 89.3 109.93 Prediction 44.54 52.55 58.16 62.78 66.9 70.78 74.58 78.46 82.58 87.2 92.81 100.82 Total Standart Deviasi n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability 0.995 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.8 0.667 0.5 Return Period 200 100 50 25 10 5 3 2 Prediction 123.51 118.59 113.21 107.23 97.97 89.28 81.19 72.68 Standart Deviasi 15.7401 14.4247 13.0127 11.4853 9.2593 7.4438 6.2026 5.6957

0.080.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.92

9.92178.1361 7.0723 6.373 5.935 5.722 5.722 5.935 6.373 7.0723 8.1361 9.9217 86.3202

Distribusi Log Normal 2 Parametern 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weibull Data 42.9 47 48 64.45 68 76.67 77.8 78.38 83.93 85.8 89.3 109.93 Prediction 47.95 53.44 57.64 61.35 64.87 68.36 71.97 75.84 80.19 85.35 92.07 102.6 Total Standart Deviasi n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability 0.995 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.8 0.667 0.5 Return Period 200 100 50 25 10 5 3 2 Prediction 139.42 130.45 121.3 111.88 98.72 87.79 78.69 70.14 Standart Deviasi 20.6591 18.3997 16.12 13.8094 10.6896 8.2871 6.568 5.4218

0.080.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.92

6.33145.5868 5.2137 5.0619 5.0865 5.2711 5.6122 6.1201 6.8245 7.7939 9.1973 11.5912 79.6906

Distribusi Gumbeln 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weibull Data 42.9 47 48 64.45 68 76.67 77.8 78.38 83.93 85.8 89.3 109.93 Prediction 43.18 49.61 54.59 59.05 63.33 67.65 72.19 77.15 82.82 89.71 98.92 113.94 Total Standart Deviasi n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability 0.995 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.8 0.667 0.5 Return Period 200 100 50 25 10 5 3 2 Prediction 170.48 156.28 142.03 127.68 108.33 93.01 80.85 69.88 Standart Deviasi 31.8235 27.7764 23.7321 19.6866 14.3227 10.2469 7.3019 5.2777

0.080.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.92

7.04865.7935 5.0807 4.7312 4.7126 5.0129 5.6166 6.5178 7.7467 9.4085 11.7899 15.8617 89.3207

Distribusi Pearson IIIn 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weibull Data 42.9 47 48 64.45 68 76.67 77.8 78.38 83.93 85.8 89.3 109.93 Prediction 44.65 52.56 58.11 62.7 66.81 70.68 74.48 78.36 82.51 87.15 92.81 100.93 Total Standart Deviasi n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability 0.995 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.8 0.667 0.5 Return Period 200 100 50 25 10 5 3 2 Prediction 124.1 119.05 113.54 107.44 98.04 89.25 81.1 72.58 Standart Deviasi 18.036 15.3322 12.7784 10.4503 7.9424 6.7181 6.2708 6.1524

0.080.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.92

8.30666.9472 6.463 6.2622 6.1788 6.152 6.161 6.2075 6.3163 6.5544 7.0992 8.5735 81.2217

Distribusi Log Pearson IIIn 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weibull Data 42.9 47 48 64.45 68 76.67 77.8 78.38 83.93 85.8 89.3 109.93 Prediction 43.32 51.17 56.98 61.94 66.46 70.79 75.07 79.46 84.15 89.38 95.65 104.4 Total Standart Deviasi n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability 0.995 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.8 0.667 0.5 Return Period 200 100 50 25 10 5 3 2 Prediction 126.47 122.11 117.04 111.09 101.32 91.72 82.56 72.92 Standart Deviasi 30.2596 24.1974 18.5168 13.5006 8.8381 7.636 7.6344 7.4865

0.080.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.92

8.21317.1865 6.9572 7.033 7.2149 7.4054 7.5524 7.6279 7.6268 7.604 7.8538 9.8527 92.1277

ANALISA FREKUENSI DENGAN DISTIBUSI NORMAL

SMIRNOV-

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

No. Urut 9 12 3 1 8 11 4 2 7 10 6 4

X 80 70 100 120 85 75 90 105 87 78 89 90

Xurut 120 105 100 90 #N/A 89 87 122 80 78 75 70

Tr (thn) 13.00 6.50 4.33 3.25 2.60 2.17 1.86 1.63 1.44 1.30 1.18 1.08 1.00 0.93 0.87 0.81

Jumlah data Nilai rata-rata Standard deviasi Tr (tahun) 2 5 10 25 50 100 KTr 0.00 0.84 1.28 1.64 2.05 2.33

n X SX XTr (mm) 89.08 100.74 106.85 111.85 117.54 121.42

12 89.083 13.879 Peluang 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01

Harga KTr Perhitungan Distribusi Normal No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Tr (tahun) 1.001 1.005 1.010 1.050 1.110 1.250 1.330 1.430 1.670 2.000 2.500 3.330 4.000 5.000 10.000 25.000 50.000 100.000 200.000 500.000 1000.000 KTr -3.05 -2.58 -2.33 -1.64 -1.28 -0.84 -0.67 -0.52 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.52 0.67 0.84 1.28 1.64 2.05 2.33 2.58 2.88 3.09 Peluang 0.999 0.995 0.990 0.950 0.900 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.100 0.040 0.020 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001

ANALISA FREKUENSI DENGAN LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETER

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

No. Urut 7 10 3 1 6 9 4 2 5 8

X 80 70 100 120 85 75 90 105 87 78

X urut 120 105 100 90 87 85 80 122 75 70

Tr (thn) 11.00 5.50 3.67 2.75 2.20 1.83 1.57 1.38 1.22 1.10

Jumlah data Standar deviasi Nilai rata-rata Koefisien Variasi Tr (tahun) 2 5 10 25 50 100 KTr -0.0848 0.8025 1.3195 1.8678 2.3265 2.7114

n SX X CV XTr (mm) 87.70 101.31 109.24 117.65 124.69 130.59

10 15.34 89.00 0.172 Peluang 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01

Harga KTr Perhitungan Metode Log Normal 2 ParameterVariasi Coef. CV 0.500 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 -0.0250 -0.0496 -0.0738 -0.0971 -0.1194 -0.1406 -0.1604 -0.1788 -0.1957 -0.2111 -0.2251 -0.2375 -0.2185 -0.2582 -0.2667 -0.2739 -0.2801 -0.2852 -0.2895 -0.2929 0.200 0.8334 0.8222 0.8085 0.7926 0.7746 0.7647 0.7333 0.7100 0.6870 0.6626 0.6379 0.6129 0.5879 0.5631 0.5387 0.5118 0.4914 0.4686 0.4466 0.4254 RETURN PERIODE(YEAR) 10 20 25

2

5

50

100

EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY 0.100 0.050 0.040 0.020 1.2965 1.3078 1.3156 1.3200 1.3209 1.3183 1.3126 1.3037 1.2920 1.2778 1.2613 1.2428 1.2226 1.2011 1.1784 1.1548 1.1306 1.1060 1.0810 1.0560 1.6863 1.7247 1.7598 1.7911 1.8183 1.8414 1.8602 1.8746 1.8848 1.8909 1.8931 1.8915 1.8866 1.8786 1.8677 1.8543 1.8388 1.8212 1.8021 1.78151.7609 1.8061 1.8482 1.8866 1.9206 1.9514 1.9775 1.9990 2.0162 2.0291 2.0378 2.1475 2.0435 2.0410 2.0353 2.0268 2.0157 2.0012 1.9868 1.9681

0.010 2.4570 2.5489 2.2607 2.7716 2.8805 2.9866 3.0890 3.1870 3.2799 3.367. 3.4488 3.5211 3.3930 3.3663 3.7118 3.7617 3.8056 3.8137 3.8762 3.9035

2.1341 2.2130 2.2899 2.3640 2.4318 2.5015 2.5638 2.6212 2.6731 2.7202 2.7613 2.7971 2.8279 2.8532 2.8735 2.8891 2.9002 2.9010 2.9103 2.9010

ANALISA FREKUENSI DENGAN LOG NORMAL 3 PARAMETER

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

No. Urut 7 10 3 1 6 9 4 2 5 8

X 80 70 100 120 85 75 90 105 87 78

X urut 120 105 100 90 87 85 80 122 75 70

Tr (thn) 11.00 5.50 3.67 2.75 2.20 1.83 1.57 1.38 1.22 1.10

Jumlah data Standar deviasi "X" Nilai rata-rata "X" Koefisien kemencengan Tr (tahun) 2 5 10 25 50 100 KTr -0.0869 2.1720 3.4040 4.6500 5.6556 6.4784

n SX X CS XTr (mm) 87.67 122.32 141.22 160.33 175.76 188.38

10 15.34 89.00 0.524 Peluang 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01

Harga KTr Perhitungan Metode Log Normal 3 ParameterSkew Coef. RETURN PERIODE(YEAR) 10 20 25

2

5

50

100

Cs' -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

0.500 0.2366 0.2240 0.2092 0.1920 0.1722 0.1495 0.1241 0.0959 0.0654 0.0332 0.0000 -0.0332 -0.0654 -0.0950 -0.1241 -0.1495 -0.1722 -0.1920 -0.2092 -0.2240 -0.2366

0.200

EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY 0.100 0.050 0.040 0.020 -1.2437 -1.2621 -1.2792 -1.2943 -1.3067 -1.3156 -1.3201 -0.3194 -0.3128 -0.3002 0.0000 1.3002 1.3128 1.3194 1.3201 1.3156 1.3067 1.2943 1.2792 1.2621 1.2437 -1.8916 -1.8928 -1.8901 -1.8827 -1.8696 -1.8501 -1.8235 -1.7894 -1.7478 -1.6993 0.0000 1.6993 1.7478 1.7894 1.8235 1.8501 1.8696 1.8827 1.8901 1.8928 1.8916-2.0421 -2.0370 -2.0274 -2.0125 -1.9914 -1.9633 -1.9278 -1.8845 -1.8337 -1.7761 0.0000 1.7761 1.8337 1.8845 1.9278 1.9633 1.9914 2.0125 2.0274 2.0370 2.0421

0.010 -3.5196 -3.4433 -3.3570 -3.2601 -3.1521 -3.0333 -2.9043 -2.7665 -2.6223 -2.4745 0.0000 2.4745 2.6223 2.7665 2.9043 3.0333 3.1521 3.2601 3.3570 3.4433 3.5196

-0.6144 -0.6395 -0.6654 -0.6920 -0.7186 -0.7449 -0.7700 -0.7930 -0.8131 -0.8296 0.0000 0.8296 0.8131 0.7930 0.7700 0.7449 0.7186 0.6920 0.6654 0.6395 0.6144

-2.7943 -2.7578 -2.7138 -2.6615 -2.6002 -2.5294 -2.4492 -2.3600 -2.2631 -2.1602 0.0000 2.1602 2.2631 2.3600 2.4492 2.5294 2.6002 2.6615 2.7138 2.7578 2.7943

ANALISA FREKUENSI DENGAN GUMBELL SUBAN FLARE

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

X 80 70 100 120 85 75 90 105 87 78

(X1 - X)2 81.0 361.0 121.0 961.0 16.0 196.0 1.0 256.0 4.0 121.0

X urut 120 105 100 90 87 85 80 122 75 70 n SX X S(X1 - X) SX Yn Sn2

Tr (tahun) 11.000 5.500 3.667 2.750 2.200 1.833 1.571 1.375 1.222 1.100 10 890.00 89.00 2118.00 . 15.34 0.4952 0.9496

Jumlah data yang dipergunakan Jumlah nilai data Nilai rata-rata Jumlah selisih dengan mean pangkat 2 Standard deviasi Koefisien yn (reduced mean) Koefisien sn (reduced Sd) Tr (tahun) 2 5 10 25 50 100 YTr 0.3665 1.4999 2.2504 3.1985 3.9019 4.6001 XTr (mm) 86.92 105.23 117.35 132.67 144.04 155.31

Peluang 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01

Harga yn & Sn Perhitungan Metode Gumbel