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Anticipatory Governance in PhoenixAnticipatory Governance in Phoenix
Sustainable Cities Network Conference, October 20th, 2010
Arnim Wiek, Braden Kay, Lauren WithycombeSchool of Sustainability, Arizona State University
Tricia Gomes City of Phoenix, Planning Department
Challenges and Opportunities for Cities in the 21st Century
• Budget constraints can catalyze creative partnerships
• Less resources for the government can encourage community-wide responsibility sharing
• Lack of development presents opportunity to examine practices and plan for the future
• Growing environmental concerns cause need to address the impact city has on future generations
2121stst Century Cities Seizing Opportunity Century Cities Seizing Opportunity
plaNYC: Goals for 2030
Land: Clean up all contaminated landEnergy: Cleaner sourcesTransportation: Improve travel timesAir: Cleanest air of any big city in USWater: Improve water networkClimate Change: Reduce emissions by more than 30%
Sustainability Transition Plan is:
Goal-orientedData-drivenCo-created with communityModel for 21st century cities
Transitions Are HappeningTransitions Are Happening
New York, Detroit, Charlotte, ...
Innovations in Phoenix – Visionary and tangible
New partnerships across sectors and groups
Sustainable Anticipatory GovernanceSustainable Anticipatory Governance
Current State:City of PHX
Current State:City of PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of Phoenix
Future Scenarios:City of Phoenix
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainability Transition Strategies
Sustainability Transition Strategies
Intervention Point
A Guiding Framework for ChangeA Guiding Framework for Change
1. Change needs reality Current State
2. Change needs direction Sustainability
Vision
3. Change needs anticipation Scenarios
4. Change needs strategies Transition
Strategies
Stakeholder Engagement in Stakeholder Engagement in Anticipatory GovernanceAnticipatory Governance
• From consultative/extractive to interactive public engagement
• Different types and intensities of public engagement
• Benefits include: Increased ownership of issues and challenges
Public acceptance of policies negotiated beforehand
• Barriers include: cost of engagement, time, training
City of Phoenix’ Transition PathwayCity of Phoenix’ Transition Pathway
Community Engagement
Sustainability Initiatives
Tackling future challenges
Anticipatory Governance in ActionAnticipatory Governance in Action
Current State:City of PHX
Current State:City of PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Visions:Sustainable PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of PHX
Future Scenarios:City of Phoenix
Future Scenarios:City of Phoenix
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainable Development Strategies
Sustainability Transition Strategies
Sustainability Transition Strategies
Intervention Point
A Vision for a Sustainable PhoenixA Vision for a Sustainable Phoenix
• Structured visioning approachStructured visioning approach Conflicting values identified and resolvedConflicting values identified and resolved
Individual preferences negotiatedIndividual preferences negotiated
Environmental quality, social justice, and future generations consideredEnvironmental quality, social justice, and future generations considered
• Based on more than 1000 vision statementsBased on more than 1000 vision statements
• 3 hour event with 120 participants from across the City3 hour event with 120 participants from across the City
“When I get up in the morning I can check my blackberry to find out when the next train comes to take me to work. At work, I log into my zip car account to reserve my 3 pm meeting and return the car near my meeting. At 6 pm I take my car to the LRT to head downtown to meet my daughter and grandson for
dinner and play at civic park.”
The Current State of PhoenixThe Current State of Phoenix
• Complete picture of the City and how it functions as a systemComplete picture of the City and how it functions as a system Not a “laundry list” but a Not a “laundry list” but a systemsystem of indicators of indicators
Analysis of problems and their root causesAnalysis of problems and their root causes
• Data-drivenData-driven Having the right data for sustainable anticipatory governance!Having the right data for sustainable anticipatory governance!
Current State Indicator:
Walkability
Current State Data:
Phoenix scored 28th out of the 40 largest US cities in Walkscore’s rating of US cities for walkability.
Calculating walking scores based on the proximity of basic amenities, Phoenix neighbourhoods averaged a
score of 50 out of 100.
Alternative Scenarios of Phoenix Alternative Scenarios of Phoenix
• We cannot predict the future, so we anticipate possible futures
• Scenarios contrasting the visionScenarios contrasting the vision
• Scenarios that consider the consequences of Scenarios that consider the consequences of inactioninaction
• Test strategies against scenarios to make them more robustTest strategies against scenarios to make them more robust
Phoenix Behind the Times
Thriving Businesses,Struggling Workers
Federal GovernmentMandates Sustainability
Car-dependency,Persistent “Brown Cloud”
Unique, Vibrant Village Cores, Inter-village Tension
Business
Governance
Mobility
Urban Cores
Projections Indicators
Scenario
• Between now and 2050: what needs to be done? Between now and 2050: what needs to be done?
• Co-created: Developed with stakeholders, shared responsibility for achieving the vision
• Sets benchmarks: 2050 is a long way away, how Sets benchmarks: 2050 is a long way away, how do we know we are on the right track?do we know we are on the right track?
• Galvanize support: Phoenix has a plan to make Galvanize support: Phoenix has a plan to make the city the best it could possibly be…the city the best it could possibly be… Based on what citizens want Based on what citizens want
Considering future generations and the environmentConsidering future generations and the environment
Anticipating and avoiding undesirable futuresAnticipating and avoiding undesirable futures
Iterations for reflection and modificationIterations for reflection and modification
Transition Strategies for PhoenixTransition Strategies for Phoenix
Opportunities Offered by Opportunities Offered by Anticipatory GovernanceAnticipatory Governance
• A shared frameworkA shared framework For interdepartmental or intergovernmental cooperationFor interdepartmental or intergovernmental cooperation
That the public can understand and be a part ofThat the public can understand and be a part of
• Future-orientationFuture-orientation
Short-term planning explicitly linked to long-term goalsShort-term planning explicitly linked to long-term goals
• Addresses challengesAddresses challenges
Grounding “big picture” goals in current policies and practicesGrounding “big picture” goals in current policies and practices