ANZ Commodity Daily 764 250113.pdf

7/29/2019 ANZ Commodity Daily 764 250113.pdf

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ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY DAILY Contacts: Mark Pervan +613 9273 3716 | [email protected] Nick Trevethan +65 6681 6714 | [email protected]

Natalie Rampono +613 9273 3415 | [email protected]

MARKET HI GHLI GHTS COMMODI TY WRAP J anua r y 25 , 2013

• Oil p r i c es r ose on imp r ov ed g loba l manu fac tu r i ng da ta

• Gold fe l l on reduced sa fe-haven p lays

• Coppe r r ange - bound des p i te im p r ov ed f l as h P MI ’ s

• B u lk s up on pos i t i v e Ch ina P MI and s upp l y d i s r up t i ons

KEY THEMES

y Ov er n igh t themes – Commodities were mostly supported by

Chinese and US flash PMI’s. China’s flash HSBC manufacturing

PMI surprised on the upside yesterday at 51.9 (mkt: 51.7).

The preliminary reading for the output index rose to 52.2, a

22-month high. The ANZ inventory pulse measure remains

high signalling a positive outlook for future activity, although

some consolidation is likely in the near-term. The Markit US

PMI for January rose to 56, growing at the fastest pace in

nearly two years and is well above the 50 point level that

indicates sector expansion. Low US jobless claims also added

to the view the US economy remains on its recovery track.

The US Dow Jones Industrial average closed 0.3% higher andis just 0.5% below the record high reached in Q3 2007.

European stocks were up 0.5-1.0% on a strong preliminary

German PMI, with factories expanding at their strongest pace

in 12 months. Markets shrugged off France’s Flash PMI

reading, indicating an economy falling deeper into recession.

OVERNI GHT RANKED PRI CE MOVES ( % )

(1.9)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(0.9)

(0.3)

(0.1)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.60.7

0.8

0.8

1.5

(2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Silver

Baltic F reight

Gold

Nickel

Platinum

Copper

S&P 500

USD (DXY)

Aluminium

Zinc

Iron o reTin

Coal (NEWC)

WTI Oil

Lead

Note: Coal (NEWC) refers to front month futures

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

y B enc hmar k c r ude p r i c es r os e , supported by improving

global manufacturing data. WTI prices appear to be

consolidating above USD95/bbl short term, while Brent

punched up through recent ranges above USD113/bbl.

Operational capacity of the US Seaway pipeline remains the

focus for the market. WTI prices rallied overnight as the

operator of the pipeline said Seaway is capably of operating at

full capacity despite concerns of reduced flows earlier in the

week. This narrowed the Brent/WTI spread very slightly,

probably because weekly US crude oil inventories rose more

than expected, by 2.8mbbls w/w. Technicals could provide

additional support, with the 50-day moving average

potentially punching up through the 100-day moving average

for both crudes near-term.

y Gold fe l l to the lowest level in a week and is now trading

around USD1,668/oz from USD1,684/oz this time yesterday.

Safe-haven buying appears to have eased as the

improvement in the US labour market adds to concerns the

Fed would consider cutting back stimulus earlier. There was

some physical buying on the downside, particularly from Asia,

but some clients were holding out for even lower prices. We

think physical demand from China should improve ahead of the Chinese New Year, especially since the PBOC released new

import quotas (potentially the same or higher) for banks.

y B ase me ta l s w e r e m ix ed , with disappointing US corporate

earnings offset by improving preliminary manufacturing reads

in China and the US. Copper will likely remain range-bound

near-term, but we could see a small tick-up in prices should

US new home sales improve in line with expectations tonight.

Potential copper disruptions from Peru could also provide

some level of support after Southern Copper workers said

they could strike if they do not reach an agreement over the

next two weeks. Southern Copper produces about 600,000t

and accounts for about half of Peru’s mine copper production

– Peru is also the second largest mined copper exporter. Leadcontinued to hold up on colder than usual weather in Europe,

but we think this seasonal and we believe it will be short-

lived. Tin was also supported yesterday by weather-related

disruptions after Indonesia failed to deliver spot tin contracts.

y Bulks rose, after China’s manufacturing data improved.

Front-month iron ore swap volumes increased again,

supported by port disruptions in Australia and Chinese port

stock levels falling to almost 2-year lows. Disrupted supplies

from Indonesia and Colombia also supported thermal coal.

Reports said Indonesia is abandoning a proposal to ban

exports of lower quality coal, because high costs for installing

coal upgrading technology would decrease revenues. Many

industry players suspected the ban would be scrapped when it

was first announced, so we do not expect too much impact on

prices. However, news that China aims to cap average annual

energy consumption growth from 2011-2015 at 4.2%, down

from 6.6% in 2006-2010 could be bearish for thermal use.



COMMODITY DATA

Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

LME BASE METALS (USD/t) LME BASE METALS (kt)

Aluminium 2041 0.1 1.4 0.5 7.7 Aluminium 5,164 (0.1) (0.2) (1.0) 2.2

Copper 8065 (0.1) 0.5 2.5 3.1 Copper 345 (0.0) (0.3) 8.4 56.9

Nickel 17331 (0.9) (1.2) 1.1 8.7 Nickel 150 0.4 1.7 7.7 16.0

Zinc 2074 0.4 4.3 2.6 15.6 Zinc 1,214 (0.4) (0.9) (0.8) 6.2

Lead 2396 1.5 5.3 3.4 18.9 Lead 294 (0.0) (0.5) (9.1) (5.3)

Tin 24649 0.7 (1.4) 5.8 24.5 Tin 13 0.2 2.1 3.0 11.8

PRECI OUS METALS (USD/oz) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Gold 1,668 (1.1) (1.2) 0.7 (2.5)

Gold (A$/oz) 1,595 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (3.3) S&P 500 1,495 0.0 0.9 6.6 5.9

Silver 32 (1.9) (0.3) 5.5 (1.4) VIX Volatility Index 13 1.8 (6.5) (44.1) (28.7)

Platinum 1,682 (0.3) (0.6) 10.5 8.9 CRB Index 293 (2.6) (2.5) (0.7) (1.4)

Palladium 728 0.1 0.3 4.3 21.7 LME Metals Index 3,517 (0.0) 0.8 2.3 6.9

ENERGY (USD/bbl) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

WTI Oil* 96.03 0.8 0.6 5.8 11.3

Brent Oil* 113.40 0.5 2.1 2.5 3.5 Baltic Freight Rate 808 (1.1) (1.5) 15.4 (23.0)

Sing Gasoil 0.5% 128 0.1 1.5 3.2 2.8 Baltic Capesize 1,541 (1.5) (2.0) 25.5 (37.1)

Sing Fuel Oil 180cst (US$/t) 632 0.4 0.4 2.2 (0.9) Baltic Panamax 723 (0.6) (2.7) 1.8 (10.1)

OTHER (USD/t) Baltic Handysize 478 0.0 3.0 7.2 10.1

China HR Coil (RmB/t) 4,064 0.0 0.2 2.4 8.7 Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Richards Bay Coal 87 0.9 (0.5) (3.3) 6.2

Newcastle Coal* 94.0 0.8 (0.2) (0.1) 11.8 DXY - USD Index 80.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 (0.1)

Australia Coking Coal** 158 … 0.7 5.4 3.1 AUD/USD - Aussie 1.046 (0.9) (0.9) 0.8 0.8

Iron Ore Spot 148.6 0.6 2.2 6.6 24.2 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.838 (0.4) (0.5) 2.2 1.8

% Ch a n g eCurrenc ies

% Ch a n g eK ey In d i ces

% Ch a n g eFre ight

Com m od i t ies I n ven t o r ies% Chang e % Change

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep No v

NEWCASTLE COALUSD/t

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep Nov

GOLDUSD/oz

70

80

90

100

110


W T I OI LUSD/bbl

0.94

0.97

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09


A UDUSD

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000


NI CKELUSD/t

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000


COPPERUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300


A L UM I N I U MUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200


Z I N CUSD/t

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.033.0

35.0

37.0


SI LVERUSD/oz

Notes: *Front-month futures **Weekly prices

Sources: Bloomberg, McCloskey, ANZ Commodity Strategy



ANZ FORECASTS

ANZ For ecast Table 1

COMMODI TY Un i t Sep -1 2 Dec- 12 Mar - 1 3 Jun - 13 Sep -1 3 Dec-1 3 Mar - 14 Jun -1 4 Sep - 14 Dec- 14 Mar - 15

BASE METALS

Aluminium USD/lb 0.87 0.93 0.92 0.97 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.00 0.99

Copper USD/lb 3.50 3.66 3.67 3.82 3.95 4.02 4.07 4.07 3.97 3.85 3.70

Nickel USD/lb 7.41 8.08 7.95 8.25 8.65 9.15 9.35 9.25 9.15 9.05 9.00

Zinc USD/lb 0.86 0.92 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.12

Lead USD/lb 0.90 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12

Tin USD/lb 8.76 9.87 9.90 10.05 10.20 10.40 10.35 10.10 9.75 9.35 9.10

PRECI OUS METALS

Gold USD/oz 1,653 1,776 1,800 1,835 1,860 1,880 1,880 1,860 1,835 1,810 1,780

Platinum USD/oz 1,500 1,651 1,665 1,755 1,828 1,848 1,855 1,845 1,835 1,820 1,795

Palladium USD/oz 613 655 685 730 770 790 810 817 808 793 779

Silver USD/oz 29.9 34.3 34.6 35.3 35.8 36.5 37.1 37.1 36.8 36.0 34.3

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX USD/bbl 92.2 91.1 93.0 98.0 100.5 102.0 103.0 103.5 103.0 101.0 98.3

Dated Brent USD/bbl 109.9 113.6 116.0 119.0 119.0 118.5 118.0 117.0 116.0 112.5 108.0

Uranium USD/lb 49.3 46.3 48.0 51.5 54.0 56.5 59.0 61.0 63.5 65.0 66.5

BULKS

Iron ore Spot (CIF China, fines) USD/t 111.9 108.1 115.0 120.0 124.0 127.0 129.0 130.0 129.0 126.5 125.0

Iron ore Contract (FOB Aust, fines) USD/t 117.9 103.2 107.2 110.9 114.9 117.4 119.5 120.9 119.5 117.3 115.1

Coking coal - Premium hard USD/t 225.0 170.0 165.0 180.0 190.0 200.0 200.0 195.0 195.0 190.0 190.0

Coking coal - Hard USD/t 174.0 160.0 155.0 165.0 175.0 185.0 180.0 175.0 175.0 170.0 170.0

Coking coal - Semi-soft USD/t 147.0 115.0 110.0 125.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 155.0 155.0 150.0 150.0

Newc Thermal Coal (Spot) USD/t 86.5 87.5 92.5 98.5 103.0 105.0 106.5 108.5 110.5 112.0 113.5

Newc Thermal Coal (JPY Contract) USD/t 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

OTHER METALS

Alumina USD/t 240 256 255 267 281 289 291 288 284 277 273

Molybdenum USD/lb 11.9 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1

Cobalt USD/lb 13.4 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2

EXCHAN GE RATES

AUD/USD USD 1.040 1.043 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.043 1.048 1.029 1.036

NZD/USD USD 0.814 0.829 0.840 0.840 0.840 0.840 0.840 0.835 0.838 0.825 0.830

EUR/USD USD 1.258 1.294 1.290 1.290 1.297 1.307 1.303 1.317 1.313 1.310 1.317

USD/JPY ¥ 78.157 79.184 78.000 78.000 78.000 78.000 78.000 73.333 75.556 74.000 73.333

USD/CAD CAD 0.991 1.015 1.043 1.063 1.083 1.097 1.093 1.100 1.099 1.100 1.100

USD/CNY Yuan 6.280 6.200 6.150 6.100 6.167 6.117 6.133 6.100 6.106 6.083 6.083

Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1 Note 3: Historical data are actuals

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy, ANZ FX Strategy



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ANZ Commodity Daily 764 250113.pdf