Arb.cap. Statistics

7/28/2019 Arb.cap. Statistics

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Rod CookAg-View Consulting


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` For each of the three crops World Production Consumption Trends Opinions about the near future Conclusions for the Chilean Industries

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0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Million Lbs.Asia & PacificSouthern AfricaMed. & N. AfricaEurope

South AmericaNorth America

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Region Area (Ha) %Russia ??Serbia 15,500 24%USA 10,000 16%Chile 12,000 19%Poland 10,000 16%

Germany 1,000

2%Ukraine 1,500 2%Hungary 1,700 3%China 1,000 2%

Canada 2,500 4%France 1,300 2%England Scotland 1,000 2%Others 6,000 9%Total 63,500

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2006 2007 2008(estimado)

USA 65.000 73.500 75.000

Canada 10.500 9.800 10.000

Chile 60.000 57.000 42.000

UK 12.200 13.000 13.000

France 7.000 5.500 7.000

Germany 6.000 6.000 5.000

Serbia 72.000 65.000 55.000

Hungary 9.000 6.000 5.000

Poland 52.000 55.000 50.000Ukraine 7.000 7.000 6.500

Russia 100.000 100.000 100.000

Others 20.000 30.000 35.000TOTAL 421.700 434.800 411.000

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` Little printed information about worldimports and Exports

` Chilalimentos shows that of the Chileanraspberry crop 36% goes to the US.

` World wide the US and the EU are clearly thetop consumers with Japan a distant third.

` NOTE: No real data is available on Russian

production nor markets. It is assumed it ismostly consumed internally


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` Concern about rising inventories of fruit in the number onemarket (USA) suggest that the world economic conditions areaffecting fruit buying patterns

`

US consumer trend in buying healthy has been replaced bybuying cheap Many older US citizens have lost the dream of retiring early After years of leading the world in consumption of goods the US buyer is

trying to save their moneyx Markets wont disappear but they will become more price sensitive

` Research shows suggests that only 13% of US consumers willreturn to old buying patterns (Fortune magazine 31/8/09)

` The two new powerhouses of consumption will most likely beChina and India

Large populations Economies that have continued to perform so far in the world economiccrisis

Rapidly increasing demand for improved lifestyle

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` McKinsey Global Institute

MGIs analysis shows that if India continues on its currenthigh-growth path, over the next two decades the Indianmarket will undergo a major transformation. Income levelswill almost triple, and India will climb from its position asthe twelfth-largest consumer market today to become theworlds fifth-largest consumer market by 2025.

As the incomes of the new middle class rise dramatically,China will become the third-largest consumer market in theworld by 2025. A key characteristic of Chinas new middle

class will be that these households will begin to spend alarger proportion of their income on discretionary items,thus significantly changing the patterns of spending in theeconomy.

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` World Banks projections are that China willovertake Japan for the second largesteconomy by 2011 A lot of this was driven by export to the US and the

EU World economic crisis collapsed many of the export

markets for China The Chinese government has begun funding

internal growth through infrastructure,environmental initiatives and DOMESTICCONSUMPTION (Fortune Magazine 31/8/09)

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` Why are these economies growing whilewestern economies are not? They were not debt ridden to begin with so

subsidies to consumers get spent as opposed tobeing used to pay off debt

These nations have poor infrastructure soinvestments in the nation have significant impacton productivity and open up markets forconsumers

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` Consumption Patterns are different Heritage of dried fruit

x

Raisinsx Figsx Nuts

Heritage of health and medicinal uses of fruitx Infusionsx Teasx Fruit Drinks

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` Are you ready to meet the requirements of the new markets? Increased finished goods Little to no frozen logistics will mean a significant

change away from processed fruit beingx

Frozen in a bag for consumer packsx Frozen bulk for ingredients

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` Grower Must be low cost producers Must produce fruit to world class levels

x Traceabilityx Good Farming Practicesx

Sustainable or Organic Must diversify among the crops to avoid the

bubbles ala Blueberry

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` Processors needs are similar Must be low cost producers Must continue to produce at world class levels

x HACCPx GMPx

ISO9000+ Must look beyond the commodity products

x Look for synergies or core businesses on which youcan build for the new markets

x Beverages Juego Framboisax Dried fruit beyond the standard itemsx Finished goods for the world

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` Most of our fruit crops are commodities Shortages, real or imagined cause spikes in the

market High pricing results in over planting Currently only strawberry shows any likelihood of

balancing demand and production The great consumers, the US and the EU are

changing buying habits New markets are opening but for very different

product styles To participate in the new markets will requireinnovation, low cost and high quality

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` Statistics provided by California Strawberry Commission US Highbush Blueberry Commission Felipe Rosa Consulting Antonio Dominguez, Chilalimentos Washington Red Raspberry Commission Dahlberg Consulting - Santiago US Department of Agriculture Shelford Consulting The Economist Vol. 382 Number 8644

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Rod CookOlympia, WA

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Arb.cap. Statistics