Assessing the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Success

SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference

August 8, 2012

Objectives for our time together

Project Overview

Louisiana Findings

Oklahoma Findings

Discussion

1

2

3

4

About the research partnership

Two papers have already been released on LA findings

Research Questions

• How does the level and mix of financial assistance affect retention and completion among Pell Grant recipients?

• Can we observe differences in the retention of Pell Grant recipients versus students in other financial classifications (needy non-Pell recipients and no-need students)?

Research Questions

• Can we identify flex points in the size and composition of financial aid awards where additional dollars yield diminishing or no returns? Can we help the state’s package aid more efficiently by eliminating “overpayment” to some students and shifting that money to students who might otherwise be inclined to drop out?

Research Questions

• How do state-based aid programs (TOPS, Go Grant, OK Promise and OTAG) interact with the Pell Grant and with want impact on student retention and completion?

• What is the best use of the state’s financial aid investments?

Key Project Outcomes for the LA Regents and OSRHE

• Conduct custom policy research• Assist in advancing policy changes

as needed• Develop report shells based on

findings• Develop internal capacity to analyze

and monitor data in the future

Louisiana findings

High school GPA* was the strongest academic preparation variable

< 3.00 3.00 - 3.49 3.50 - 3.74 3.75 - 4.0040.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

55.0%

70.0%

79.0%

87.0%

Ret

entio

n R

ate

High School GPA

* 2,817 records (out of 37,251) were missing a high school GPA (they retained at 58%)

< 3.00 3.00 - 3.49 3.50 - 3.74 3.75 - 4.0040.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

No Pell Pell

Once we control for high school GPA*, Pell recipients retain as well as other students with

demonstrated financial needR

eten

tion

Rat

e

High School GPA Range

Among Pell recipients, as the percentage of need met with gift aid increases so does student retention

All Records

% Need Met with Gift Retain Did Not Retain Total Retention

Rate

<30 1301 1363 2664 48.8%40 1449 1103 2552 56.8%50 1622 936 2558 63.4%60 1308 537 1845 70.9%70 1136 408 1544 73.6%80+ 1958 462 2420 80.9%Grand Total 8774 4809 13583 64.6%

Chi-Square Results:df 5

value 727.1p-value <.0001 <30 40 50 60 70 80+

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Retention Rate by % Need Met w/Gift, All Records

Increasing the gift percentage from less than 30 percent to 60 percent corresponds to a 22 percentage point increase in the retention rate, while increasing the percentage of need met with gift aid from 60 percent to 70 percent increases retention by only 3 points.

Pell Only Pell + GO Pell + TOPS Pell + GO + TOPS

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

34.0%

47.5%

63.0%

73.9%

53.8%59.4%

73.3% 74.9%

Need Met with Gift Aid Retention Rate

Adding the Go Grant alone increases the percentage of need met with gift aid by 14 percentage points and provides a

5.6 percentage point improvement in retention

All pairwise comparisons of means are significant except for retention rate between Pell+TOPS and Pell+GO+TOPS

Oklahoma findings

High school GPA was used as the control for academic preparation because it

entered a predictive model we built on the data set

Note: In our 2010 work, we used ACT composite as the control variable, but that was not based on a model

39.3%

28.2%

17.1%

7.7%

7.6%

Relative Strength of Model Variables

Percent Need Met with Gift

High School GPA

EFC>0 Flag

Distance from Campus

Institution Code

Table 3: Fall-to-Fall Same School Retention by HSGPAFall 2006, Fall 2007, Fall 2008

HSGPA All Pell Needy, no

Range Students Recipients Pell Grant

< 3.00 47% 51% 45%

3.00 - 3.49 61% 62% 60%

3.50 - 3.74 71% 70% 73%

3.75 - 4.00 81% 82% 78%

GPA missing 53% 54% 57%

Total 62% 62% 63%

Pell Grant recipients retain as well as students in other categories

This parity in performance is encouraging given the vast difference in family income between the Pell students ( approx. $20,000) and students with demonstrated financial need without Pell Grants (approx. $56,000)

There is a relationship between the percentage of need met with gift aid and retention among Pell recipients

Less than 28% 29% to 50% 51% to 79% 80% and above0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2.86 and below 2.87 to 3.35 3.36 to 3.63 3.64 and above

% of Need Met with Gift

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

<3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-3.74 >3.74 Total30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Pell Grant Only, No Promise or OTAG Pell and Promise, No OTAG Pell and OTAG, No Promise Pell, Promise and OTAGTotal (All Pell Recipients)

Retention rates by combinations of Pell Grants and Promise/OTAG

Questions

Questions and Discussion