Automobile Monthly Sales Analysis - Nalanda Securitiesbe a rise in the sentiments & a gradual upsurge in the demand, further supported by near normal monsoons, pre-buying and a

Auto Monthly | April 2019 May 03, 2019

Automobile Monthly Sales Analysis

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All Bar Graphs in Red | Struggle to continue for a few more months |Reiterating: Uncertainty is the best time | Cherry pick remains the strategy.

Institutional Research

Head of ResearchVaibhav Chowdhry vaibhav.chowdhry@ nalandasecurities.com

NALANDA SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED310-311 Hubtown Solaris, NS Phadke Marg, Opp Teli Gali, Andheri East, Mumbai 69+91-22-6281-9649 | [email protected] | www.nalandasecurities.com

AnalystAmit Hiranandani amit.hiranandani@ nalandasecurities.com

Source: NSPL Research, Bloomberg, Company

The consumers postponed its purchase decision on account of 1) rise in the cost of ownership led by insurance bouncer. 2) theeconomy takes a pause before the general elections, as the consumers are delaying purchases due to uncertainty with respectto the election outcome and 3) some impact of tight liquidity conditions & higher interest rates in the market. We believe theautomobile industry is the reflection of economic growth, which in the recent past quarters, has slowed down a little. We thinkthese are just a temporary blip or a pause in the growing Indian automobile industry. Post the election uncertainty, there wouldbe a rise in the sentiments & a gradual upsurge in the demand, further supported by near normal monsoons, pre-buying and alower base. The uncertainty is the best time and we recommend cherry picking of stocks at this juncture, which keeps sharpenits moat or a competitive advantage. We recommend lapping up Hero MotoCorp in two wheelers led by 1) its renewed focusedstrategy 2) lower valuations & 3) sustained competitive advantage. We suggest to buy Maruti Suzuki on dips 1) as they arefurther polishing its moat and 2) has been rising above the competitors on all fronts.

The demand should pickup, as we have observed that the impact of the insurance price hike has softened now and thecustomers have understood the benefits of taking long term insurance. The NBFC liquidity concerns have eased. Also, the fuelprices as well as interest rates have reversed from the peak of Oct 2018 highs. The consumers are well aware of the safetyrequired in a vehicle and hence, the majority of the customers are asking for ABS/CBS built-in vehicles. We think that therewon’t be any demand slowdown due to ABS/CBS.

Hence, we think the automobile industry is going through a temporary slowdown is majorly due to two factors viz. 1) rising costof ownership and 2) postponement of purchases due to uncertainty related to the general elections. We have observed in thepast that the automobile sales jumped higher post the results of national elections; expect the same this time too. Overall, weexpect the automobile industry would continue to witness soft demand at least for the next two months. The sales shouldbounce back sharply during festive season and the growth rate to look much higher on account of 1) lower base and 2) pre-buying ahead of the implementation of BS6. The major risk in CY19 is 1) halt of oil imports from Iran, which could led to rise inthe fuel prices; and thus can further impact the already subdued sentiments and 2) poor monsoons.

The passenger vehicle industry has recently witnessed a sharp plunge in the volumes seen earlier in October 2011. The severefall was on account of 1) a high base – as there were multiple model launches in February 2018 and that led to a sharp rise in thevolume sales in April-June 2018 quarter. 2) the customers are deferring the purchases. 3) rise in the inventories has led to thecurtailment of the production and reduction in the wholesale dispatches.

Moreover, apart from this, we believe there are possibilities of a structural hit on the PV industry due to changing consumerbehaviour. This is specifically referring to the urban areas. Based on our understanding, the consumers are deferring thepurchase of a car because a) the cost of the car has increased sharply in the recent past. b) the car parking chargesskyrocketed in the societies due to paucity of space in metro cities. 3) the worsening traffic conditions. 4) gradualimprovement in the public transportation such as Metro trains, AC buses, etc. 5) the study also suggests that the consumersinstead of buying a car, preferring to hire a cab/pool – a clear case of the rise of cab aggregators. The falling volume sales inthe lower segment cars (on the likes of Alto, WagonR, etc) is the true reflection of a structural demand hit on the PV industry.

-17

.2%

2.0%

4.6%

-22.

2%

7.5

%

-20

.5%

-9.1

%

-17.

2%

-7.7

%

-14.

9%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

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-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

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April 2019 YoY Sales Growth

3.1%

25.3

%

12.9

%

14.5

%

12.9

%

1.9%

10.

8%

4.7%

3.4%

19.9

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FY19 YoY Sales Growth

mailto:[email protected]


Auto Sector | Monthly Sales Numbers | Page 3




On the expected lines, the commercial vehicles are in a severe pain. The commercial vehicle industry is struggling as 1) no newmajor projects are getting announced due to on-going general elections. 2) the economy has taken a pause. 3) Implementation ofthe revised axle load norms, which increased the carrying capacity by about 20%. 4) Post E-way bill and implementation of the GST,the vehicles turnaround time improved, which also led to additional capacities. 5) purchase deferrals before elections and 6) ahigher base.

Based on our understanding, if the commercial vehicle industry has posted six continuous months of a YoY decline, then it’s anindication of the start of a downturn. The reverse is true for the upturn. Since November 2018, the industry has witnessed adrop in its YoY volume sales. Hence, we believe there are high probabilities that the downturn in India’s commercial vehicleindustry has begun. We reiterate that LCVs follow the trend of MHCV, and this month LCVs has also started showing signs of adistress.

The MHCVs were impacted on account of revised axle load norms. The LCVs slowdown from its high growth trajectory, and hasbeen growing a little led by e-commerce industry. However, the buses segment for almost all the OEMs reported a positive growthmajorly led by demand from the schools, ambulances and a good pull from new product launches.

The Two-wheeler sales has been gradually moving down, reflecting passenger vehicles trend. The two-wheelers is negativelyimpacted post the sudden rise in the insurance costs. The OEMs on the expectation of a good festive 2018 season has increased itsinventory levels, however, the festives were very soft and along with, the rise in the cost of ownership, the volume sales is gettingimpacted since November 2018. Moreover, the sluggish demand in the urban and poor sentiments impacted negatively. The rise inthe build up of inventories, forced the OEMs to curtail its production levels and hence, the overall wholesale dispatches sloweddown in the recent months.

We have observed that the competition in the two-wheeler segment continues to remain intensified as Hero started offeringsimilar offers of Bajaj’s 555 i.e. five year free insurance, warranty and service. In addition, the MNCs are launching eye-catchingproducts at attractive pricing. We expect 2W industry to grow by 5.0% in FY20E, 7.5% CAGR in the medium term driven by positivestructural factors and serious focus of our Government on rural. The past 10 years volume growth has been at 11% CAGR (FY08-18).

We are a little negative on the tractor industry growth, as it has already seen a strong run-up for the last three years and there arepossibilities of El Nino in CY2019, which can affect the monsoons and in turn tractor industry growth. We have already seen nearnormal monsoons in the past three years and it’s difficult to project one more consequently. The lower rabi sowing and expectationof sub-normal monsoons has resulted in lower tractor volumes in April 2019.

The overall exports continue to post a mixed set of numbers, where Tata Motors has always been the worst affected andsurprisingly M&M too for the first time in the recent past has reported a double digit decline in the exports. The elections inBangladesh, distress in Sri Lanka and a slowdown in the Middle East has impacted the overall exports. While, on the other side,Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors has been posting a decent set of numbers month after month. Maruti’s export numbers remainedsurprisingly positive this time as it has posted 15% YoY growth after a continues negative growth for 10 consecutive months. Theexport numbers from Eicher Motors too were higher led by rise in exports of its Royal Enfield motorcycles; offset by decline in theCV volume sales.



Bajaj Auto – Reported Industry Leading Growth | Seeing Some Impact of Demand Fatigue

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Bajaj Auto Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

2Ws 3,66,268 3,49,617 4.8% 3,23,538 13.2% 42,36,873 33,69,334 25.7%

3Ws 57,047 65,551 -13.0% 69,813 -18.3% 7,82,630 6,37,457 22.8%

Domestic 2,32,104 2,29,464 1.2% 2,59,185 -10.4% 29,40,773 23,44,214 25.4%

Exports 1,91,211 1,85,704 3.0% 1,36,563 40.0% 20,81,127 16,64,455 25.0%

Total Sales 4,23,315 4,15,168 2.0% 3,93,351 7.6% 50,19,503 40,06,791 25.3%

*Source: Company, NSPL Research




18.9

%

23.6

%

65

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25.5

%

27.9

%

16.6

%

32.9

%

31.3

%

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% 25.7

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40.0%

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Bajaj Auto 2W Sales Trend

82

.8%

75.9

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7.8%

8.4%

22.8

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Bajaj Auto 3W Sales Trend

29.0

%

29.1

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84.7

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27.4

%

27.4

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10.5

%

29.4

%

30.6

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20.6

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14.5

%

3.6% 27

.3%

25.4

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1.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

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Bajaj Auto Domestic Sales Trend

22.2

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30.6

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44.1

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34.3

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35.0

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29.6

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17.4

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15.9

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19.1

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25.0

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3.0%

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Bajaj Auto Export Sales Trend

25.

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17.1

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32.5

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24.7

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18.3

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15.3

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9.8

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Bajaj Auto's Total Sales Trend




Hero MotoCorp – Severely Impacted by Weak Sentiments & High Inventories

Escorts – Domestic Growth Trajectory remains Weak | It’s a first red in the recent past.

Hero MotoCorp Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

Total Sales 5,74,366 6,94,022 -17.2% 5,81,279 -1.2% 78,19,151 75,87,257 3.1%

Escorts Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

Domestic 4,986 6,094 -18.2% 11,431 -56.4% 93,323 78,446 19.0%

Exports 278 92 202.2% 474 -41.4% 3,089 1,971 56.7%

Total Sales 5,264 6,186 -14.9% 11,905 -55.8% 96,412 80,417 19.9%





16

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16

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Hero Motocorp's 2W Sales Trend

26.3

%

20.

9%

72.

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3.5%

4.9%

2.5%

28.8

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56.4

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.9%

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Escorts Total Sales Trend








Ashok Leyland – Surprisingly Positive Numbers

Ashok Leyland Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

MHCV Trucks 7,645 7,513 2% 13,620 -44% 1,22,987 1,11,212 11%

MHCV Bus 1,701 1,455 17% 2,414 -30% 19,871 20,220 -2%

Total MHCV 9,346 8,968 4% 16,034 -42% 1,42,858 1,31,432 9%

LCV 4,280 3,709 15% 5,501 -22% 54,508 43,441 25%

Total Vehicles 13,626 12,677 7% 21,535 -37% 1,97,366 1,74,873 13%

Domestic Sales

MHCV Trucks 7,517 7,013 7% 13,134 -43% 1,15,613 1,02,826 12%

MHCV Bus 1,401 1,241 13% 2,101 -33% 16,323 13,708 19%

Total MHCV 8,918 8,254 8% 15,235 -41% 1,31,936 1,16,534 13%

LCV 4,223 3,697 14% 5,286 -20% 53,129 42,078 26%

Total Vehicles 13,141 11,951 10% 20,521 -36% 1,85,065 1,58,612 17%

Export Sales

MHCV Trucks 128 500 -74% 486 -74% 7,374 8,386 -12%

MHCV Bus 300 214 40% 313 -4% 3,548 6,512 -46%

Total MHCV 428 714 -40% 799 -46% 10,922 14,898 -27%

LCV 57 12 375% 215 -73% 1,379 1,363 1%

Total Vehicles 485 726 -33% 1,014 -52% 12,301 16,261 -24%

78.8

%

50

.5%

28.0

%

26.9

%

27.5

%

26.0

%

17.0

%

-9.2

%

-19

.5%

9.1

%

0.4

% -4.1

%

12.

9%

7.5%

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Ashok Leyland Sales Trend




TVS Motors – Swiftly Moving Higher | All segments in positive territory despite of industry slowdown

TVS Motors Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

2Ws 3,05,883 2,93,418 4.2% 3,10,901 -1.6% 37,57,329 33,67,395 11.6%

3Ws 13,054 11,377 14.7% 14,444 -9.6% 1,56,434 98,684 58.5%

Domestic 2,49,372 2,42,997 2.6% 2,48,940 0.2% 31,52,025 28,91,864 9.0%

Exports 69,565 61,798 12.6% 76,405 -9.0% 7,61,738 5,74,215 32.7%

Total Sales 3,18,937 3,04,795 4.6% 3,25,345 -2.0% 39,13,763 34,66,079 12.9%





21

.7%

8.2% 12

.1% 16

.9%

6.8%

17.1

%

24

.6%

26

.2%

4.5%

2.4%

1.7%

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% 11.6

%

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TVS Motors 2W Sales Trend

11

4.5

%

78.2

%

14

0.9

%

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%

56.1

%

47.6

%

56.1

%

48.4

%

36.7

%

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%

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%

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%

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TVS Motors 3W Sales Trend

17.9

%

2.6%

8.0%

13.0

%

1.9%

17.5

%

25.2

%

27.7

%

1.0%

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0.3%

-6.8

%

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TVS Motors Domestic Sales Trend

53.6

%

53.2

%

48.6

%

41.8

%

44.8

%

20.1

% 27.5

%

23.9

%

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23.0

%

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%

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%

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%

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TVS Motors Exports Sales Trend

23

.7%

9.9

%

14

.5% 1

8.4

%

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%

17

.8%

25

.5%

27

.0%

5.7

%

4.0

%

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%

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%

12

.9%

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%

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0.0%

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25.0%

30.0%

Ap

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TVS Motors Total Sales Trend




Tata Motors – All the boxes in deep red..!

Tata Motors Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

PVs - Domestic 12,694 17,235 -26.3% 17,810 -28.7% 2,10,143 1,87,321 12.2%

CVs - Domestic 29,883 36,276 -17.6% 50,899 -41.3% 4,68,343 3,99,186 17.3%

Domestic 42,577 53,511 -20.4% 68,709 -38.0% 6,78,486 5,86,507 15.7%

Exports 1,402 3,010 -53.4% 5,952 -76.4% 52,963 52,154 1.6%

Total Sales 43,979 56,521 -22.2% 74,661 -41.1% 7,31,449 6,38,661 14.5%





34

.4%

61

.1%

63

.0%

14.4

%

28.5

%

6.6

%

11.0

%

-1.0

% 0.6

%

-11.

1%

1.9

%

-12.

1%

12.2

%

-26

.3%

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Ap

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Tata Motors PV Sales Trend

12

6.5

%

55.9

%

50.3

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25.1

%

26.3

%

25.9

%

21.6

%

-5.2

%

-10.

5%

-5.8

%

-5.1

%

3.6%

17.3

%

-17.

6%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Tata Motors CV Sales Trend

85.5

%

57.6

%

54.1

%

21.3

%

27.0

%

19.7

%

18.1

%

-3.8

%

-7.7

%

-7.6

%

-3.0

%

-1.0

%

15.7

%

-20.

4%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Tata Motors Domestic Sales Trend

41.4

%

-5.2

%

49.7

%

44.5

%

77.7

%

35.1

%

5.6%

-6.6

%

-36.

5%

-37.

0%

-39.

0%

-11.

0%

1.6%

-53.

4%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Tata Motors Export Sales Trend

82.5

%

51.2

%

53.7

%

23.0

%

30.1

%

20.7

%

17.0

%

-4.0

%

-10.

6%

-10.

0%

-5.7

%

-1.9

%

14.5

%

-22.

2%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Tata Motors Total Sales Trend




Mahindra & Mahindra – All the bar graphs inverted this time..!

Mahindra & Mahindra Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

PVs 19,966 21,927 -8.9% 27,646 -27.8% 2,54,701 2,49,505 2.1%

CVs 17,321 18,963 -8.7% 24,423 -29.1% 2,48,601 2,16,802 14.7%

3Ws 4,316 4,327 -0.3% 6,943 -37.8% 66,699 54,625 22.1%

Domestic 41,603 45,217 -8.0% 59,012 -29.5% 5,70,001 5,20,932 9.4%

Exports 2,118 2,880 -26.5% 3,940 -46.2% 38,595 28,221 36.8%

Total Automotive Sales 43,721 48,097 -9.1% 62,952 -30.5% 6,08,596 5,49,153 10.8%

Tractors 28,552 30,925 -7.7% 19,688 45.0% 3,30,436 3,19,623 3.4%

Total Sales 72,273 79,022 -8.5% 82,640 -12.5% 9,39,032 8,68,776 8.1%





13

.1%

1.6% 11

.9%

-6.0

%

1.8%

-15.

8%

2.6%

1.0%

-2.9

%

0.8%

16

.6%

4.1%

2.1%

-8.9

%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M PV Sales Trend

25.9

%

15.3

%

27

.1%

28

.4%

24.7

%

19.3

% 26.3

%

26.5

%

-3.6

%

7.7%

1.0%

-4.2

%

14.7

%

-8.7

%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M CV Sales Trend

19.3

%

7.6%

23.0

%

12.0

% 14.5

%

1.4%

13.3

%

15.3

%

-0.8

%

6.2%

9.2%

0.6%

9.4%

-8.0

%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M Domestic Sales Trend

88.5

%

134.

4%

86.8

%

30.7

%

13.9

%

17.1

%

33.3

%

39.7

%

38.0

%

22.5

%

16.4

%

15.1

%

36.8

%

-26.

5%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M Export Sales Trend

18.3

%

13.9

%

22.

5%

19.6

%

6.9%

-17

.9%

16.8

%

12.9

%

-5.9

%

0.7%

-8.1

%

-30.

9%

3.4%

-7.7

%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M Tractors Sales Trend

22.0

%

11.

5%

26.3

%

12.9

%

14.5

%

2.4% 14

.2%

16.9

%

1.4%

7.0%

9.5%

1.4%

10.

8%

-9.1

%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

M&M Total Automotive Sales Trend




Eicher Motors – Severe Demand Fatigue Continues along with Maintenance Shutdown for Nine Days

Eicher Motors Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

Eicher upto 350 cc 55,522 70,111 -20.8% 54,870 1.2% 7,67,678 7,64,804 0.4%

Eicher 350 cc+ 7,357 6,076 21.1% 5,961 23.4% 58,420 55,689 4.9%

Total Motorcycles 62,879 76,187 -17.5% 60,831 3.4% 8,26,098 8,20,493 0.7%

Buses 939 930 1.0% 1,814 -48.2% 12,013 12,090 -0.6%

CVs 3,022 3,030 -0.3% 6,862 -56.0% 60,853 53,809 13.1%

Total Sales 66,840 84,106 -20.5% 69,507 -3.8% 9,02,923 8,86,392 1.9%





26

.7%

23

.1%

17

.9%

7.1

%

2.1%

1.7

%

1.4

%

-6.2

%

-13

.0%

-6.6

%

-14

.3%

-20

.1%

-0.7

%

-17

.5%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Royal Enfield Sales Trend

-19

.8%

-3.3

%

38

.7%

15.1

%

0.9%

-21

.2%

-19

.5%

-36% -9

%

-13

%

15%

15% -1

%

1%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Eicher Motors PV Sales Trend

56.9

%

47.5

%

71.6

%

43.2

%

40.1

%

14.8

%

19.5

%

0.5%

4.0% -13.

1%

-10.

1%

-12.

5%

13.1

%

-0.3

%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Eicher Motors CV Sales Trend

27.6

%

24.2

%

20.1

%

7.9%

3.2%

1.6%

3.8%

-4.3

%

-13.

2%

-7.5

%

-15.

1%

-20.

0%

1.6%

-22.

8%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Eicher Motors Domestic Sales Trend

1.6%

6.0% 35

.9% 48

.1%

36.5

%

32.4

%

-49

.0%

-50

.1%

29.5

%

3.5%

27.

7%

15.

0%

11.

0%

48.9

%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Eicher Motors Export Sales Trend

26.8

%

23.5

%

20.

6%

9.0%

4.0

%

2.4

%

2.3

%

-6.1

%

-11.

7%

-7.2

%

-13.

6%

-18.

7%

1.9

%

-20

.5%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Eicher Motors Total Sales Trend




Maruti Suzuki – In Deep Red Since July 2018 | No Sign of Relief

Maruti Suzuki Apr-19 Apr-18 YoY (%) Mar-19 MoM (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%)

PVs 1,31,385 1,63,434 -19.6% 1,45,031 -9.4% 17,29,826 16,43,467 5.3%

LCVs 2,319 1,544 50.2% 2,582 -10.2% 23,874 10,033 138.0%

Domestic 1,34,068 1,64,978 -18.7% 1,47,613 -9.2% 17,53,700 16,53,500 6.1%

Exports 9,177 8,008 14.6% 10,463 -12.3% 1,08,749 1,26,074 -13.7%

Total Sales 1,43,245 1,72,986 -17.2% 1,58,076 -9.4% 18,62,949 17,79,574 4.7%





13

.4%

24

.0%

44

.0%

-0.6

%

-3.6

%

0.7

%

0.6

%

-0.3

%

1.0

%

0.2

%

0.2

%

-1.5

%

-5.0

%

-19.

6%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-1

9Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Maruti Passenger Vehicle Sales Trend

276

%

298

%

68

9%

145%

147%

132%

147%

112%

131%

92%

75%

83%

138.

0%

50%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Maruti LCV Sales Trend

14% 25

%

45%

0%

-3%

1% 2% 0.5%

1.8%

1.1%

0.9%

-0.7

%

6.1%

-18.

7%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19Y

oY

Gro

wth

(%

)

Maruti Domestic Sales Trend

19%

48%

-29% -10%

-10%

-25%

-17%

-19%

-36%

-11%

-20%

-13%

-13.

7%

15%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Maruti Export Sales Trend

14%

28%

36%

-1%

-4%

-0.8

%

0.2%

-0.7

%

-1.3

%

0.2%

-0.8

%

-1.6

%

4.7%

-17.

2%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

FY1

9

Ap

r-19

Yo

Y G

row

th (

%)

Maruti Total Sales Trend




Auto Sector Segmental Breakup





Auto Sector Monthly Sales Analysis

Apr-17 Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19YoY (%)

MoM(%)

FY19 FY18YoY (%)

Two-Wheelers

Bajaj Auto 2,93,932 3,49,617 3,23,538 3,66,268 4.8% 13.2% 42,36,873 33,69,334 25.7%

Hero Motocorp 5,95,706 6,94,022 5,81,279 5,74,366 -17.2% -1.2% 78,19,151 75,87,257 3.1%

Royal Enfield upto 350 cc 56,349 70,111 54,870 55,522 -20.8% 1.2% 7,67,678 7,64,804 0.4%

Royal Enfield 350 cc+ 3,793 6,076 5,961 7,357 21.1% 23.4% 58,420 55,689 4.9%

TVS Motors 2,41,007 2,93,418 3,10,901 3,05,883 4.2% -1.6% 37,57,329 33,67,395 11.6%

Passenger Vehicles

M&M 19,391 21,927 27,646 19,966 -8.9% -27.8% 2,54,701 2,49,505 2.1%

Eicher Motors 1,158 930 1,814 939 1.0% -48.2% 12,013 12,090 -0.6%

Tata Motors – Domestic 12,827 17,235 17,810 12,694 -26.3% -28.7% 2,10,143 1,87,321 12.2%

Maruti - Passenger Cars 1,09,505 1,26,744 1,03,030 97,701 -22.9% -5.2% 12,87,023 12,34,571 4.2%

Maruti - Utility Vehicles 20,638 20,804 25,563 22,035 5.9% -13.8% 2,64,197 2,53,759 4.1%

Maruti – Vans 13,938 15,886 16,438 11,649 -26.7% -29.1% 1,78,606 1,55,137 15.1%

#DIV/0!

Commercial Vehicles

Eicher Motors 1,931 3,030 6,862 3,022 -0.3% -56.0% 60,853 53,809 13.1%

Tata Motors – Domestic 16,017 36,276 50,899 29,883 -17.6% -41.3% 4,68,343 3,99,186 17.3%

Maruti – LCV 411 1,544 2,582 2,319 50.2% -10.2% 23,874 10,033 138.0%

M&M – CV 15,060 18,963 24,423 17,321 -8.7% -29.1% 2,48,601 2,16,802 14.7%

M&M - 3Ws 3,438 4,327 6,943 4,316 -0.3% -37.8% 66,699 54,625 22.1%

Bajaj Auto - 3Ws 35,868 65,551 69,813 57,047 -13.0% -18.3% 7,82,630 6,37,457 22.8%

TVS Motors - 3Ws 5,303 11,377 14,444 13,054 14.7% -9.6% 1,56,434 98,684 58.5%

Ashok Leyland 7,090 12,677 21,535 13,626 7.5% -36.7% 1,97,366 1,74,873 12.9%

Domestic Sales

Bajaj Auto 1,77,887 2,29,464 2,59,185 2,32,104 1.2% -10.4% 29,40,773 23,44,214 25.4%

TVS Motors 2,06,089 2,42,997 2,48,940 2,49,372 2.6% 0.2% 31,52,025 28,91,864 9.0%

Tata Motors 28,844 53,511 68,709 42,577 -20.4% -38.0% 6,78,486 5,86,507 15.7%

Eicher Motors 61,154 81,446 65,894 62,879 -22.8% -4.6% 8,71,539 8,58,127 1.6%

M&M 37,889 45,217 59,012 41,603 -8.0% -29.5% 5,70,001 5,20,932 9.4%

Maruti Suzuki 1,44,492 1,64,978 1,47,613 1,34,068 -18.7% -9.2% 17,53,700 16,53,500 6.1%

Export Sales

Bajaj Auto 1,51,913 1,85,704 1,36,563 1,91,211 3.0% 40.0% 20,81,127 16,64,455 25.0%

TVS Motors 40,221 61,798 76,405 69,565 12.6% -9.0% 7,61,738 5,74,215 32.7%

Tata Motors 2,128 3,010 5,952 1,402 -53.4% -76.4% 52,963 52,154 1.6%

Eicher Motors 2,077 2,660 3,613 3,961 48.9% 9.6% 31,384 28,265 11.0%

M&M 1,528 2,880 3,940 2,118 -26.5% -46.2% 38,595 28,221 36.8%

Maruti Suzuki 6,723 8,008 10,463 9,177 14.6% -12.3% 1,08,749 1,26,074 -13.7%

Total Sales (Domestic + Exports)

Hero Motocorp 5,95,706 6,94,022 5,81,279 5,74,366 -17.2% -1.2% 78,19,151 75,87,257 3.1%

Bajaj Auto 3,29,800 4,15,168 3,93,351 4,23,315 2.0% 7.6% 50,19,503 40,06,791 25.3%

TVS Motors 2,46,310 3,04,795 3,25,345 3,18,937 4.6% -2.0% 39,13,763 34,66,079 12.9%

Tata Motors 30,972 56,521 74,661 43,979 -22.2% -41.1% 7,31,449 6,38,661 14.5%

Ashok Leyland 7,090 12,677 21,535 13,626 7.5% -36.7% 1,97,366 1,74,873 12.9%

Eicher Motors 63,231 84,106 69,507 66,840 -20.5% -3.8% 9,02,923 8,86,392 1.9%

M&M 39,417 48,097 62,952 43,721 -9.1% -30.5% 6,08,596 5,49,153 10.8%

Maruti Suzuki 1,51,215 1,72,986 1,58,076 1,43,245 -17.2% -9.4% 18,62,949 17,79,574 4.7%

Tractors

M&M Tractors 26,151 30,925 19,688 28,552 -7.7% 45.0% 3,30,436 3,19,623 3.4%

Escorts 4,899 6,186 11,905 5,264 -14.9% -55.8% 96,412 80,417 19.9%



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