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Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Project type: EU INTERREG IV B projectPeriod: 36 monthsKick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011

Ole Krarup LethDanish Meteorological Institute

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Overview

1 Climate change:

• An understanding of the problem …• Why BALTADAPT• Partners• Work to be carried out

2 Some components to the knowledge- base – what should we relate to:

• Warming – regional• Precipitation – regional• Sea level – regional

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Background

Realise the disaster but prevent the catastrophe ...

In our everyday life we calculate the risks and take our precautions – the same is true regarding climate change and climate change adaptation …

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Background

EU´s strategy for the Baltic Sea...• Elaborated by the European Commission• Launched in 2009• Four focus areas:

1) Environmentally sustainable

2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes

3) Improve infrastructure

4) Security• Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to

climate change“ • Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan:

„To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region“ BALTADAPT

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Project goals and expected results

Overall objectives:• Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic

Sea Region

objectives:• Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region

Expected results:• Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians• Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and

fill in gabs in this knowledge• Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region• Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region

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Baltadapt partnership

The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)/Baltic 21

Danish Meteological Institute (DMI; LP)

Finnish Environment

Institute (SYKE)

University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute (EMI)

University of Latvia (LU)

Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

Federal Environment Agency (UBA)

Federal Ministry for the

Environment, Nature

Conservation and Nuclear

Safety (BMU)

Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)

National Environmental

Research Institute, Aarhus,

University (NERI)

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Work package 4:

Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR

Work package 3:

Develop a BSR climate change

adaptation strategy

Work package 5:

Develop a BSR climate change

action plan

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Project structure

Work Group 1:

BSR physical system

Work Group 2:

BSR ecosystem

Work package 4:

Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR

Work Group 3:

BSR coastal zone

T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results)T2: Identify climate change impacts on coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)T3: Identify climate change impacts on coastal uses and function (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)

The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.

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Background

The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challengesdue to climate change...• Changes in precipitation amounts

and patterns• Increase in terrestrial and sea

temperatures• Rise in sea level• Decrease in ice cover• Intensified eutrophication and

algal blooms, increased runoff and pollution

...it is time to adapt now!

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IPCC, 2007

A2 (red curve): The skeptical/pessimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 29 Gt C/yr]

B1/B2 (blue/black curves): The optimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 5/13 Gt C/yr]

A1B (green curve) : The in-between scenario

Observed, global surface temperature and modeled surface temperature till 2100. All relative to 1980-1999.

Conclusion: 1.8ºC- 4ºC increase in global surface temperature by year 2100.

Climate change - what does data tells us

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Climate change - what does data tells usEnsemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario

Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region

Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region

Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

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Climate change - what does data tells usEnsemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet

Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region

Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region

Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

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Climate change – storm surgesAreas affected by storm surges

Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazardsin Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).

Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea affected by storm surges

Future changes in sea level and in storm surge heights owing to:

1) Changes in global sea level.

2) Regional and local changes owing toland rise.

3) Changes in direction and strength of local winds.

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Climate change – storm surges

Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20 - 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Bay.

Expected sea level rise in Danish waters by yr. 2100

Individual contributions

Global sea level rise 30 -100 cm

Land rise – (10 - 20) cm

Contrib. from local winds 0 - 40 cm

Sum 10 - 120 cm

Increase in water level: Effect of changes in local winds (2100 – Now)

Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100

K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149. Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk