Bangkok Condominium Q4-2011

2010 / 2011

new Supply

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Bangkok Condominium MarketHIGHlIGHTS New launches in 2011 dropped from the previous year by around 50%, due to buyers and developerswaitingforthenewgovernmentpolicyonallowancesforfirst-timebuyersinthe thirdquarterandthefloodsinsomepartsofBangkokinthelastquarter. Floodsinthefourthquarterof2011affectednewlaunchesasconstructionsitesgroundtoa halt.Buyerswerealsotakingmoretimetomakeadecision.

NewBangkokTownPlanningisstillthemainissuefor2011-2012,duetoexpected regulationsthatwillaffectfuturedevelopmentandthenumberofunitsinthepipeline.

New launches in 2012 will surpass the total units in 2011, as many projects postponed launchesfrom2011to2012.Developersarealsofocusingmoreonhigh-riseprojects.Buyers arealsoshowingmoreinterestincondominiumprojectsthaninhousesreflectinga preferenceforcityliving.

Newly launched units in the fourth quarter of 2011 totalled around 5,160 units, an increase from Q3 2011 of approximately 2,150 units.Around 30,689 units were launched in 2011 whichissignificantlyfewerthan2010.Therewere many factors in 2011 that affected thecondominium market, such as the generalelection in the third quarter which led many customers to postpone buying decisions while they waited for new policies from the new

government. In the fourth quarter the majorproblem in some parts of Bangkok was thefloodingwhichdirectlyaffectedtherealestatemarket, especially housing projects. Thecondominiummarketwasalsoaffectedbythefloods as customers postponed making adecision during that time and many developers were forced to delay the launching of new projectsuntil2012.

Q4 2011 | Condominium

mARKeT IndICAToRS

newly lAunCHed CondomInIum unITS fRom Q1 2010 – Q4 2011 by QuARTeR

Source:ColliersInternationalThailandResearch

BaNgkokCoNDomINIum maRkeTRePoRT

WithinurbanBangkok,theNorthernFringeareahasseenthehighestnumberofnewprojectswithapproximately960unitslaunched,followed

bytheeasternFringeareawithapproximately760units.

onlyabout3,800newcondominiumunitswerecompletedandregisteredattheDepartmentofLandinQ42011andthetotalnumberin2011wasapproximately24,500units.Thenumberofcompletedunitsin2011was

lower than in 2010 by around 25%, due to some projects being forced to postponetheircompletiondatesuntil2012,duetothefloods insomepartsofBangkok.


Source:DepartmentofLand,ColliersInternationalThailandResearchRemarks:ThenumberofunitsdoesnotincludeprojectsfromtheNationalHousingauthority

newly lAunCHed CondomInIum unITS In Q4 2011 by loCATIon

HISToRICAl Supply

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2

Bangkok Condominium market rePort|Q42011

ToTAl HISToRICAl Supply by loCATIon To Q4 2011

new Supply 2009 – 2011 by QuARTeR


Source:DepartmentofLand,ColliersInternationalThailandResearch

Source:DepartmentofLand,ColliersInternationalThailandResearch

around64%,morethan206,000,of the total condominiumunitsarelocatedinsuburbanBangkok.WithinurbanBangkok,theNorthernFringe

containsthemostunitsduetoitsproximitytothecentre,masstransitconnectionsandrelativelylowerlandpricescomparedtotheCityarea.


approximately3,800unitswerecompleted inthe lastquarterof2011andthetotalsupplyinthatyearamountedtoaround24,500units.morecompletedunitsareusually launchedinthefinalquarterofeachyearalthoughQ42011wassignificantlydownbecausesomepartsofBangkok

wereflooded.manyconstructionsites installedbarriersforprotectionfromthefloodswhichcausedconstructionworktocease.Someroadswere under water which affected the transport of materials. manyprojectswereforcedtopostponetheircompletiondatesuntil2012.

fuTuRe Supply – uRbAn bAnGKoK

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approximately32,100unitsarescheduledtobecompletedin2012intheurbanBangkokareaandmorethan25,000unitsinsuburbanareas.TheNorthernFringeareacontinuestobethemainplayerinurbanBangkokwith approximately 12,400 units scheduled for completion in 2012,

followedbytheCityareawithatotalofaround7,150units.Inaddition,the Northern Fringe area will remain the primary area for the condominium marketoverthenextfewyears.

The average take-up rate of newly-launched condominiums for alllocationinQ42011wasaround57%,representingthehighestquarterin2011. , The take-up rate inSuburbanBangkokwas lower than in the

previousquarterduetothefloods.ThepositivefiguresfortheeasternandNorthernFringearetheresultofpopularnewly-launchedprojectsfromasianPropertyDevelopmentPlc.andSupalaiPlc.

Source:ColliersInternationalThailandResearchRemarks:SupplydoesnotincludeunitsinSuburbanBangkok


CumulATIve fuTuRe Supply SCHeduled To be CompleTed fRom 2012 – 2013 by loCATIon In uRbAn bAnGKoK (AS of Q4 2011)

SAleS pRopoRTIon of newly-lAunCHed unITS In 2011 by QuARTeR And loCATIon



AveRAGe SAleS pRopoRTIon of All newly lAunCHed unITS In 2011 by loCATIon

Theaveragetake-upratefornewlylaunchedcondominiumprojectsinBangkok in 2011 was approximately 47%. The take-up rate in thesuburbanBangkokareawasthehighestfollowedbytheeasternFringearea,SouthernFringeareaandCityarearespectively.Thereasonforthe

high take-up rate in the suburbanBangkok area is thatmany newly-launched projectswere located on BTS or mRT extension lines, andmost of the projects were scheduled for completion at the same time as thecompletionofthemasstransitsystem.

DCondoCharan–BangkhunnononCharansanitwongRoadbySansiriPlc.showedthehighesttake-uprateofalmost100%of its445unitswithasellingpriceofmorethanTHB34,000persqm.TheprojectislocatedonCharansanitwongRoadwhichisalsoontheBTSBlueLineextension.SansiriPlc.stillexpandedtothelowermarketinSuburbanBangkokareawithDCondoasamajorbrandforthismarket,aswellashavinglaunchedDCondoinotherprovincesofThailandalready.

Supalaiekamai–ThonglorwasthesecondprojectfromSupalaiPlc.onPhetchaburiRoadwithatotalof660unitsintheeasternFringeareawhichhadoneofthehighesttake-upratesinthatlocation.PhetchaburiRoadisstillarelativelynewcondominiumlocationbecomingpopularforcondominiums over the past three years, due to it being close to the main business roads such as Sukhumvit Road andRatchadapisek Road, inadditiontolandpricesstillbeingaffordable.


lAunCHeS wITH HIGH TAKe-up RATeS In Q4 2011


Thetake-uprateofprojects201–500metresawayfromBTS/mRTstationswasthehighestatnearly70%,butfortheprojects501–1,000metresandmorethan1,000metresfromBTS/mRTstations,take-upratesarelowerataround60%.

mostofthecondominiumprojectsalongtheBTSlinethatwerelaunchedin2011werenotlocatedonthemainroadandarenotadjacenttoaBTSstation. They are however locatedwithinwalking distance of aBTSstation,sosellingpriceswerelowerinordertoattractbuyers.

Theaveragetake-uprateofcondominiumprojectswithin200metresofmasstransitstationscamecloseto45%.mostprojectsinthisareaareluxuryprojectsandthesellingpricesaremorethanTHB100,000persqm.Howeverprojectslocated201–500and501–1,000metresfromBTS/mRTlinesshowedthelowestrateofaround36%.Thisfigureis

due to many projects being located away from the main road, sometimes in out of the way sois with poor feeder systems but with selling prices stillhighorsimilartoprojectslocatedonthemainroadornearertoBTS/mRTlines.Projectslocatedfurtherthan1,000metrescamehighestatmorethan47%duetothelowersellingpriceofprojects.



AveRAGe TAKe-up RATe In pRoxImITy To exISTInG mASS TRAnSIT STATIonS Q4 2011

AveRAGe TAKe-up RATe In pRoxImITy To exISTInG mASS TRAnSIT STATIonS In 2011



InITIAl lAunCH pRICeS

lAunCH pRICeS: mASS TRAnSIT effeCT




AveRAGe SellInG pRICeS of newly lAunCHed pRojeCTS Q1 – Q4 2011 by loCATIon

AveRAGe SellInG pRICeS of newly-lAunCHed pRojeCTS by pRoxImITy To mASS TRAnSIT lIneS (bTS And mRT) 1Q - Q4 2011

TheaveragesellingpriceintheCityareaisstillthehighestatTHB140,000persqmforQ42011.TheaveragesellingpriceinQ2toQ4wasmorethanTHB100,000persqm.TheaveragesellingpriceintheouterCity

– east area is lowest due tomost projects focusing on the low-endmarket.mostprojectsinthesuburbanBangkokareaarealongthenewBTSormRTextensionlines,sotheaveragesellingpriceishigher.

Thedistance fromBTS/mRTstationsstill is themain factor for theaveragesellingprice.Theaveragesellingpriceofprojectswithin200metresofamasstransitstationisnearlyTHB110,000persqm.Howevertheaveragesellingpriceofprojects located501–1,000metresfrom

BTS /mRT lines are higher than other locations, due to the averageselling price from one project on Thonglor Road in Q3 being nearlyTHB195,000persqm.



TRendS

fInAnCInG

new bAnGKoK Town plAnnInGTheexistingBangkokTownPlanexpiredlastyearandhasbeenextendedtomayof2012andmaybeextendedfurtherto2013.,InthedraftofthenewBangkokTownPlan,constructionofbuildingsovereightstoriesor5,000sqmonaroadlessthan16metreswideisprohibited.Thiswillaffectthecondominiummarket,especiallythelowtomiddlepricemarket,duetomostsmallstreetsinBangkokbeinglessthan16metreswide.

manydevelopersandtheThaiCondominiumassociationaretryingtochangeordelaytheregulation,duetoitdirectlyaffectingdevelopersandthecondominiummarketinBangkok.

foReCASTThefloodinginthelastquarterof2011affectedlow-riseprojectsinthesuburbanBangkokarea,butalsohadapositiveaffectonthecondominiummarket,asmanypeoplewholivedinfloodedareasmovedtocondominiumsintheCityarea.Inaddition,someofthemdecidedtobuycondominiumsalongmasstransitlinesorintheCityarea.Thecondominiummarketin2012 will be more active than in 2011, as most developers are focusing moreonthecondominiummarketthanonlow-riseprojects.SomehouseownersinfloodedareasalsooptedtobuycondominiumunitsintheCityareaoralongmasstransitlines,toenablethemtogotoworkduringtheflood.

masstransitremainsakeyfactor inattractingdevelopersandbuyers.Constructiononsomeextensionlineshasalreadystarted,whileotherlinesarestillwaitingforafinaldecisionorareinthebiddingprocess.

Condominium developers however have already launched new projects alongtheplannedlines.mostdevelopersareland-bankingbeforestartingconstruction,duetocheaperlandprices.Theyarescheduleingcompletionforthesametimeasthemasstransitline.Theareaalongthebluelineismost popular and a lot of condominium projects were launched in 2011, mostfromlistedcompanies.

ThenewBangkokTownPlan isalsoaconcernfordevelopers,asthethird draft will limit the total area and height of buildings in narrow streets. . This regulation will directly affect developers as well aslandowners and will force more concentration of development on on highervaluesitesalongthemainroads.

The growth rate of housing loans increasedmore than 3% from Q32009 to Q1 2010 because the government’s incentives attracted buyers topurchaseandtransferbeforethesecondquarterof2010.Thisboostedhousingloansinthatperiodcomparedtootherperiods.Theamountof

loanscontinuestogrowbutatamoresustainablepace.ThegrowthrateinQ32011wasthehighestofthepastsixquarters,duetothefirsthomepolicy from the previous government and the new policy from the new governmentcomingintoeffectinSeptember.

Source:BankofThailandandColliersInternationalThailandResearchNote:excludesnegligibleamountsoffinancingfromothersources.Percentageofchangeisonaquarterlybasis

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Bangkok Condominium Q4-2011