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AHIA National Conference 2005 An Ageing Australia Implications of demographic change for the health industry. Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 10 November 2005. Aussies slide towards natural decrease. 1960. 1970. 1980. 1990. 2000. 2010. 2020. 2030. 2040. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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AHIA National Conference 2005
An Ageing AustraliaImplications of demographic change for the health industry
Bernard Salt
Author The Big Shift
Partner KPMG Australia
10 November 2005
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Aussies slide towards natural decrease
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Recession
BabyBoom
1975crisis
Fertilitydecline
Boomers die off 2035Natural decrease
19888.5 19.4 25.4
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Singles beat off couples and families
Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades
By 2011 the traditional nuclear family loses supremacy as the dominant household type (to couples)
By 2021 ‘families’ and couples are eclipsed by singles – who then pull ahead in 2020s
Net growth(000)
1991 2001 2031 2001-2031
Singles 20 24 31 1,628
Couples 24 26 29 1,295
One-parent family 10 11 11 410
Mum, Dad & the Kids 41 33 24 167
Group households 5 4 3 86
Other family 1 1 1 12
Households 6.450 7.789 11.580 3.791
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Child Teen Old AgeAdult
711968
Child Adult Old Age
631928
Source: ABS 2003a, 3302.0, 3102.0, 3222.0; Australia’s Health 2004 (AIHW)
Boomers redefine 50-something
Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Old
812008Retired
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year
Po
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on
Baby boomers just won’t die … they will soon influence national budgets
Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 …
40
5430
25
70
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,0001
5
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81 84
87
90
93
96
99
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Born 1931
‘Rich’ live longer
Boomer mid-pointTotal populationby single year
Pre-boomer’sslide
Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Retirement now … and next decade
Born pre 1939
Now aged 65+
Great Depression & WWII
Frugal by nature
Quite like the term “Senior Citizen”
“Content” and “happy” in retirement
Most make their exit by 2020 … boomers around until the 2030s
Born 1946 – 1961
Now aged 44 – 59
First Boomer retires 1 July 2011
Consumerist by nature
Hippies, punks, dinks & yuppies … and now Seachangers
Will redefine retirement … may well work longer
Boomer retirement impact will peak 2016 - 2021
Today’s retirees Tomorrow’s retirees
© 2005 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Further information & contact
• The Big Shift 2 – $19.95rrp
• Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every Thursday
• Bernard Salt’s columns appears monthly in Property Australia and Wish Magazine
• Population Growth Report 2005 now available at $595: contact [email protected]
• Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; [email protected]; www.thebigshift.com.au
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
