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2B TheBusinessJournal October 2011

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate hasnt been ex-empt from the pain felt across much of the

real estate industry in the last few years.Yet, according to the latest reports, it maybe stabilizing.

Lawrence Yun, National Association ofRealtors chief economist, said a pullbackin construction is helping to stabilize themarket. Very limited construction of newcommercial real estate over the past fewyears has essentially fixed the supply ofavailable space, he said. This means va-cancy rates could fall quickly from any in-

crease in demand for commercial space.With a renewal of job growth should

come increased apartment rent, says Yun.Supply and demand rule the rising anddeclining of rent. And the demand of theyounger population entering indepen-dence, and the housing market, may leadto a rise in demand and prices.

The rise is expected to be around 3.4percent this year and 4.2 in 2012.

Rising apartment rent in combinationwith rising oil prices could push the over-all inflation rate beyond a comfort level,

which could then force the Federal Re-serve to raise interest rates later this year

or early in 2012, Yun added.Retail markets see the silver lining as

well, with vacancy rates expected to dropmarginally from 13.0 percent to 12.9 per-cent. Some areas are faring better thanothers. San Francisco, Miami, Honolulu,and Long Island, N.Y. have vacancy ratesconsiderably lower at 7 to 8 percent.

For now, average retail rent is expectedto decline 0.9 percent in 2011. Experts seea rise on the horizon, however, in 2012.

Office markets are still struggling, aswell, but a decline is expected. According

to the NAR, Vacancy rates in the officesector are forecast to decline from 16.5percent in the first quarter of this year to16.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

The lowest vacancies are see in NewYork City and Honolulu, with vacanciesnear 8 to 9 percent.

As job growth is experienced across thenation, vacancy rates should begin to de-cline across all sectors, though real reliefmay be some distance off in our future.

Commercial real estate trends

Commercial Real Estate Deals DeclineThe U.S. commercial real estate market

has slowed in the past three months as thesputtering economy and a pullback in debtfinancing limited deals, cooling a recoveryfrom Washington to California.

A total of $49.8 billion of commercialproperty changed hands in the third quar-ter, down from $58.5 billion in the previousthree months, according to a report released

today by Real Capital Analytics Inc. The 15percent decline is the second-biggest sincethe first quarter of 2009, the real estate re-search firms data show.

Deals slowed after concern deepened thatthe debt crisis in Europe may spread andthe U.S. economy may enter another reces-sion. Smaller markets are being hurt by lessavailability of commercial-mortgage bonds.

The retreat may be an indication of a mar-ket awakening to the fact that it was gettingahead of itself, said Susan Wachter, profes-sor of real estate and finance at the Univer-sity of Pennsylvanias Wharton School.

You cant turn an ocean liner around ona dime, Wachter said in a telephone inter-view. The market itself realized that dealswere getting done at pretty pricey points,and at the same time you had all of theevents that undermined confidence.

Growth probably wont accelerate aslong as conditions are as unsettled as theyare, Wachter said.

Commercial RecoveryIn contrast to the U.S. housing market,

where sales are near the same level as whenthe recession ended two years ago, commer-cial property demand has rebounded, partic-ularly in the so-called core markets of NewYork, Washington and San Francisco. Com-mercial real estate transactions in the second

quarter were more than double their levelfrom a year earlier and quadruple the post-recession low of $12.9 billion in the firstquarter of 2009, according to Real Capital.

Commercial real estate prices were littlechanged three of the last four months asfear crept into the market, Green StreetAdvisors Inc. reported on Oct. 6. Prior tothe slowdown, prices had recovered three-quarters of the value lost after credit marketsfroze in late 2008, according to the NewportBeach, California-based property researchcompany, which compiles its data from real

estate investment trusts.Third-quarter deals for office buildings,

hotels, industrial properties, apartments andshopping complexes were up 38 percentfrom the same time in 2010, according toReal Capitals report.

All Property Types

While this growth is respectable, it fallswell short of the gains posted at mid-year,the company said in the report. The slow-ing was evident across all property types andmost markets as well. Nevertheless, saleshave totaled $143.5 billion year to date, al-ready surpassing the full-year 2010 total.

Part of the sequential decline stemmedfrom large portfolio transactions in the sec-ond quarter, which included BlackstoneGroup LPs $9 billion takeover of Australianmall owner Centro Properties Groups U.S.shopping centers. Portfolio deals totaled$9.36 billion in the third quarter, down from$17.8 billion in the previous three months,according to Real Capital.

Sales showed some surprising strengthin the third quarter, Dan Fasulo, managingdirector of New York-based Real Capital,said in an e-mail. Still, he said he expectsvolume to be tempered until Europesdebt issues are clarified, and the market for

commercial-mortgage securities recovers.Bigger DeclinePreliminary data from a competing re-

search firm, Washington-based CoStarGroup Inc., showed an even bigger declinein third-quarter sales, with transactions tum-bling 29 percent from the second quarterto $62.6 billion. Real Capital only countsdeals of $2.5 million or higher, while Wash-ington- based CoStar has no minimum size.CoStar is still entering data, so the declinewill likely be smaller than the current num-ber, said Aaron Jodka, manager of U.S. mar-

ket research.The U.S. economy and the global econ-

omy are very much on shaky ground, saidStephen Malpezzi, professor of real estateand urban land economics at the Universityof Wisconsins business school in Madison.

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Decline(Continued from page 2B)

Commercial real estate doesnt exist in avacuum and its only going to recover to theextent theres confidence amongst business-es -- the users of commercial real estate --

and that, in turn, depends on the consumer.Standard & Poors on Aug. 5 cut its creditrating for the U.S. to AA+ from AAA, whilethe Federal Reserve said last month thatthere are significant downside risks tothe economy. Europes sovereign debt crisisposes a serious risk to U.S. growth, theFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco saidin an Oct. 17 paper.

CMBS PullbackFinancing for deals has tightened. Bor-

rowing costs in the market for commercialmortgage-backed securities have jumped

more than a full percentage point since thesecond quarter, according to an index fromBarclays Capital Inc.

The $600 billion CMBS market had pro-vided the cheap debt financing that drovecommercial real estate to record highs in2007, and sales of the securities were start-ing to come back gradually until late July.The market got a jolt that month when S&Ppulled its rating on a $1.5 billion commer-cial-mortgage bond sale by Citigroup Inc.and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which hadalready overhauled the transaction after in-vestors demanded better collateral protec-tion.

The CMBS turmoil has hurt secondarymarkets such as Minneapolis; Austin, Texas;and Raleigh, North Carolina, said SpencerLevy, a Baltimore-based executive man-aging director on the U.S. capital marketsteam at CBRE Group Inc., the worlds larg-est commercial real estate brokerage. Therehave been fewer bidders and lower offers, hesaid.

Important to Markets

CMBS conduits werent the only lenderthere, but they were more important than inprimary markets, Levy said. Many second-ary markets are already suffering due to poor

job and economic growth, he said.Uncertainty about potential U.S. bank

losses from Europes debt crisis is sappingconfidence and halting sales dependent onCMBS, particularly in smaller markets, ac-cording to Michael Knott, managing direc-tor at Green Street. Real estate investmentwont match levels seen in previous quartersof 2011 until some lasting peace is reachedin the euro zone, he said.

Among bigger cities, property deals rosein the third quarter in New York, while fall-ing in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston,Chicago and Washington, the major marketsconsidered to be the drivers of commercialreal estate sales volume, according to Co-Star.


4/124B TheBusinessJournal October 2011

By NEIL WINGETT

I dont know if you have ever seen anyof the Pirates of the Caribbean moviesstarring Johnny Depp, but if you ventureout to see the latest version, you mightwant to pick up on some leadership pointsfrom his character, Captain Jack.

While a guy who wears a pirate outfitand eye shadow may not be your versionof an ideal corporate CEO, he does make

some interesting leadership points.Captain Jack Sparrow says: There should be a captain in there

somewhere. While you could inter-pret this as just another one of his off thewall remarks, Captain Jack does have apoint. As a leader, you should neverfail to remind others of your qualifica-tions. You dont want to alienate yourteam or co-workers with arrogance, butyou can subtly remind others whos incharge with your confidence, vision,and passion for the work. Once thosequalities are displayed, your employeeswill know whats expected and have anexample to follow.

You know that feeling when you are

on a high place, that sudden urge to

jump? I never have it. Hes talkingabout going with your gut and impro-vising. A true leader has the instinctsand self confidence to know when tomove forward, no matter what direc-

tion the tides take the ship. The abilityto take calculated risks is a plus on theleadership resume.

I thought I should give you a warn-

ing. We are taking the ship. Its noth-

ing personal. Honest leaders knowits never easy to deliver bad news.Hearing bad news from you personallyand upfront makes it easier for youremployees to digest and move forward.They need to be reminded that decisions

are based on what is best for the compa-nynot personal. What is best for thelong run may not be what is necessarilypopular.Knowing there is a Captain, and

knowing who that person is, will alwayshelp to rally the crew to face any situa-tion.

Rally the crew

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situation


5/12October 2011 TheBusinessJournal 5B

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The expectation is that the demandfor commodities will not be quite as briskfrom this point forward. --ABC ChiefEconomist Anirban Basu.

Summary

While the nations wholesale prices in-creased for the first time in five months,construction materials prices were un-changed in September, according to theOctober 18 Producer Price Index (PPI)report by the Department of Labor. Con-

struction materials prices decreased 0.2percent for the quarter, but are 8.1 percenthigher than one year ago.

Generally, metal prices trended down-ward for the month. Nonferrous wire andcable prices dropped 3.5 percent in Sep-tember and were down 0.8 percent for thethird quarter. However, prices were stillup 9.3 percent year-over-year. Steel millproduct prices slipped 0.6 percent lastmonth, 1 percent lower for the quarter, but

are still 13.5 percent higher from one yearago. Similarly, iron and steel prices weredown 0.1 percent for the month, down 0.2percent for the quarter, but up 13.8 per-cent over the past twelve months.

However, not all metal product priceswere down for the month. Fabricatedstructural metal product prices were un-changed in September and the quarter, butare 5.2 percent higher from September2010. Prices for plumbing fixtures and fit-tings inched up 0.1 percent on a monthlybasis, up 0.5 percent for the quarter, and

2.8 percent higher from one year ago.Prepared asphalt, tar roofing, and sid-

ing products fell 2.3 percent in September,were down 1.5 percent for the quarter, butare up 3.7 percent over the past twelvemonths. Prices for softwood lumber fell1.2 percent in September, but were up 1.4percent for the quarter and rose 3.7 per-cent from the same time last year. Con-crete product prices were up 0.1 percentfor the month, up 0.3 percent for the quar-

ter, and are 0.3 percent higher comparedto September 2010.

Crude energy prices jumped 7.7 percentin September as crude petroleum pricesrose 23 percent. Crude energy priceswere down 0.5 percent for the quarter, butwere up 20.3 percent over the last twelvemonths. Overall, the nations wholesaleprices were up 0.8 percent for the month,up 1 percent for the quarter and are up 7percent from one year ago.

Analysis

Despite todays report, there is no rea-son to believe that construction materialsprices will generally decline during themonths ahead, even if the global econo-my continues to soften, said AssociatedBuilders and Contractors Chief Econo-mist Anirban Basu.

A weak worldwide economy would

represent a problem for many asset class-es, including sovereign debt and equities,Basu said. If investors begin to sell thoseassets on net, proceeds from those salescould end up in hard assets like commodi-ties, thereby preventing construction ma-terials price declines.

For now, commodity investors appearheavily focused on the ongoing slow-down in global growth, said Basu. Theeconomic issues in Europe are now wellknown and have been thoroughly dis-cussed, but China and other emerging na-

tions are also experiencing their own setof economic problems.

In short, the expectation is that the de-mand for commodities will not be quiteas brisk from this point forward, Basusaid. Therefore, it is likely that materialsprices are no longer on the rise.

Construction Materials Prices Unchangedin September


6/126B TheBusinessJournal October 2011

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The most recently available data hasbeen decidedly positive, indicating risingconstruction spending and job growth. --ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.

SummaryDespite a stagnant national unemploy-

ment rate, the construction industry added26,000 jobs in September and the unem-ployment rate improved to 13.3 percent forthe month, according to the Department ofLabors Oct. 7 jobs report. The unemploy-ment rate is down from 13.5

percent in August, and much improvedfrom 17.2 percent the same time last year.Year over year, the construction industryadded 37,000 jobs, or 0.7 percent, compared

to September 2010.Nonresidential construction employment

improved by 11,200 jobs for the month, witha total of 680,000 jobs. The sector expandedby 21,200 jobs, or 3.2 percent compared tothe same time last year.

Heavy and civil engineering construc-tion employment rose by 6,200 jobs forthe month and has added 9,700 jobs, or 1.2percent, during the last twelve months. Spe-cialty trade contractors added 5,100 jobs inSeptember and increased by 13,800 jobs, or0.4 percent, for the month. Within the spe-

cialty trade contractor sector, nonresidentialcontractors added 10,700 jobs for the month,while residential contractors lost 5,600 jobs.Residential building construction employ-ment grew by 1,800 jobs for the month, butis still down 7,400 jobs, or 1.3 percent, com-pared to the same t ime last year.

Across all industries, the nation added103,000 jobs as the private sector added137,000 jobs and government lost 34,000

jobs. However, 45,000 of the jobs addedwere the result of rehiring striking telecom-

munication workers. Year over year, the na-tion has added 1,490,000 jobs, or 1.1 per-cent. However, the nations unemploymentrate remained at 9.1 percent in September.

AnalysisTodays construction employment re-

port offers hope that the industry is expe-riencing a positive trend in activity, saidAssociated Builders and Contractors ChiefEconomist Anirban Basu. Though thereis much concern regarding the direction ofconstruction spending as we approach 2012,for now activities remain stable. In fact, themost recently available data has been decid-edly positive, indicating rising constructionspending and job growth.

In September, the U.S. nonresidentialbuilding industry added more jobs than ithas since January 2007, Basu said. Thisfits neatly with what ABCs ConstructionBacklog Indicator (CBI) has been predict-ing through the second quarter of 2011--thatrelatively robust growth in backlog, fore-shadowing the current period of spendingand employment, improves the industry.

If the economic momentum that exist-ed in early 2011 had persisted, the outlookfor construction spending and employmentwould still be positive, said Basu. How-

ever, much of that pre-existing momentumhas been lost during the past seven months,with the implication being that the currentpace of recovery in nonresidential construc-tion is unlikely to last.

Given little hope for significant stimulusin the near term, the expectation is that thepace of increased employment in the nonres-idential construction industry will eventu-ally begin to wane during the months ahead.If the economy continues to deteriorate, thegrowth trend will be reversed, Basu said.

Construction UnemploymentRate Edges Down to 13.3 Percent


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MONROE, La. CenturyLink, Inc. (NYSE:CTL) has received the 2011 Secretary of DefenseEmployer Support Freedom Award, the highestrecognition given by the Department of Defenseto public sector employers for their exceptionalsupport of employees serving in the Guard andReserve.

CenturyLink CEO and President Glen F. Post,III accepted the Freedom Award, presented to thecompany at a ceremony in Washington, D.C.

CenturyLink is committed to providing asupportive atmosphere to our employees whoserve our country in the armed forces and totheir families, Post said. We are honored to berecognized by the Defense Department with thisaward.

The Freedom Award recognizes the supportgiven to Guard and Reserve employees by QwestCommunications, which was acquired by Centu-ryLink in April 2011. Qwest had previously wonthe Freedom Award at the state level for threeconsecutive years. CenturyLink is among 15 or-ganizations receiving the national award this yearfrom a field of more than 4,000 nominations sub-mitted by service members or their families.

In another recognition of its commitment toemployees who also served in the military, Cen-turyLink has been named to the list of 45 GreatEmployers for Vets by Military Times EDGE.The magazine determined the list based on surveyresponses from Fortune 1000 companies and topgovernment contractors that rated the employerson their vet-friendliness in three areas: recruiting,corporate culture and reserve policies.

According to Military Times EDGE, Welooked for companies that could prove they makeveterans a priority not just with slogans andstatements of support, but with programs, poli-cies and positive track records. For the surveysresults and more information: www.military-timesedge.com/links/2011-employer-surveys

About CenturyLinkCenturyLink is the third largest telecom-

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less services to consumers and businesses acrossthe country and advanced entertainment servicesunder the CenturyLinkTM PrismTM TV andDIRECTV brands. In addition, the companyprovides data, voice and managed services tobusiness, government and wholesale customersin local, national and select international marketsthrough its high-quality advanced fiber optic net-work and multiple data centers. CenturyLink alsois recognized as a leader in the network servicesmarket by key technology industry analyst firms,and is a global leader in cloud infrastructureand hosted IT solutions for enterprises through

Savvis, a CenturyLink company. CenturyLinkscustomers range from Fortune 500 companies insome of the countrys largest cities to families liv-ing in rural America. Headquartered in Monroe,La., CenturyLink is an S&P 500 company and isincluded among the Fortune 500 list of Americaslargest corporations. For more information, visitwww.centurylink.com.

CenturyLink also named to Military Times EDGE list


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The Business Journal

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As the foliage starts to turn colors, wemay notice a change in the foods our bod-ies crave. The desire for an ice popsicle

just might be replaced by a yearning fora warm bowl of soup. In Chinese medi-cine consuming foods that correspond toeach season is thought to create harmonyand balance. Fruits and vegetables containthe most concentrated nutrients and flavorwhen they are consumed in season. Au-tumn is the perfect time to try new producethat is packed with delicious phytochemi-cals to keep your taste buds and health inshape throughout the entire season!

Whether you enjoy apple picking or pe-rusing through a pumpkin patch, you will

fall into health with these tasty picks!An Apple a Day Keeps the WeightAway

These shiny gems are not just for yourteacher anymore! A recent USDA-fundedstudy assigned 160 women from ages 45to 60 to eat dried apples daily for one year.The results demonstrated a 23% drop inLDL cholesterol and lower levels of C-reactive protein and lipid hydroperoxide.The women dropped an average of three

pounds, despite consuming the extra calo-ries from the dried apples. This miraclefruit may be enjoyed raw, dried, or baked,

but limit the apple pies if you want the fullbenefits.Tasty Tip: Chop a crispy apple into your

hot oatmeal and sprinkle with walnuts andyour favorite spices for a boost of fiber andheart-healthy omega three fatty acids.

Brussels Sprouts Defend from Cancerand Disease

You may want to rethink feeding Fidoyour Brussels sprouts under the table!Countless studies link Brussels sprouts tocancer prevention and protection from dis-ease. Chock full of vitamin A, C, E, and

powerful antioxidants, it is time to invitethese mini cabbages back to your dinnertable. Their cardio protective and anti-in-flammatory benefits make them a perfectfall side dish. You may also want to trya variety of cabbages for their digestivehealth benefits. Studies demonstrate thatcabbage contains a multitude of nutrientsthat benefit our stomach and intestinal lin-ings.

Delicious Dish: For a colorful meal,

shred red and green cabbage together. Thenadd some sesame oil, lemon juice, and yourfavorite spices. Enjoy with baked fish for a

wholesome meal packed with phytonutri-ents and flavor!Root Your Way to HealthIf you love to chomp on bright orange

carrot sticks or savor the terrific taste ofturnips, you will be happy to take advan-tage of the root vegetables that are staplesof the fall season. Tasty tubers like sweetpotatoes, yams, cassava, and taro pack apunch of potassium, fiber, beta-carotene,iron, and folic acid, supporting a healthyimmune system. Baking, roasting, or add-ing these delicious roots to stews is a great

way to enjoy these nutrient powerhouses.Make a mlange of roasted beets, turnips,rutabaga, and parsnips for a low-fat sidedish that will keep your bellyand taste-budssatisfied.

Chew on This: Beets contain powerfulanti-inflammatory and antioxidant proper-ties, thanks to betalains, the pigment thatgives them their deep red hue. Grate rawbeets into your favorite salad or steam andserve them with lemon juice and a drizzle

of extra virgin olive oil for a tasty sidedish.

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The Perfect Pear for an AntioxidantBoost

In season through October, this juicyand sweet fruit comes in a variety of col-ors and textures. This fragrant fruit is amember of the rose family and is a greatsource of copper and vitamin C, whichcan help protect our bodies from free radi-cal damage. To enjoy the full antioxidantbenefits of pears, it is best to eat them ripe.

How to tell if it is ripe? Check the neck!Gently press your thumb against the neck.If it yields to slight pressure, it should beready to eat. Pears are also an excellentsource of dietary fiber, which has beenshown to promote colon and cardiovascu-lar health.

Mouthwatering Meal: Add a choppedpear to a warm bowl of quinoa, sprinklewith toasted sunflower seeds, and drizzlewith honey.

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SENIOR LIFESTYLE CHOICES

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A nutrient-poor diet filled with added sug-ars and unhealthy trans fats is known to causehigh cholesterol, so it sure makes sense tryand fix the problem with healthy food. Al-though 25 percent of adults over the age of 45take cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins,which can sap your energy and cause prob-lems for your sex life, a new study reveals thatchanges to your diet might actually do a better jobwithout the energy-sapping, sex-killing

side effects.A new study in the Journal of the Ameri-

can Medical Association followed 345 people

with high cholesterol who were placed on oneof two vegetarian low-cholesterol diets for sixmonths. The first was a low-saturated-fat dietand participants were told simply to eat low-fatdairy and get more fruits and vegetables intotheir meals. The second group had help fromnutritionists to incorporate specific cholester-ol-lowering foods into their meals, includingsoy proteins, nuts, oats, peas, and beans. Thatgroup saw a drop in cholesterol three times

higher than the group on the regular low-sat-urated-fat diet, and both diets proved to be atleast as successful as early trials of statins.

Lower Cholesterol without Pills?Study Shows Its Possible


12/12


If hearing loss goes untreated, a condition called auditory deprivation occurs. This has been confirmed by scientific

studies. Seniors with hearing loss are significantly more likely to develop dementia over time than those who retain their

hearing, according to a study by John Hopkins and the National Institute on Aging. The good news is scientists report that

with treatment as simple as hearing aids, dementia could be delayed or improved.

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Documents

Bizjrnl Nov2011B Section