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University of Texas at El PasoDigitalCommonsUTEP
Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance
3-2007
Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026Thomas M Fullerton JrUniversity of Texas at El Paso tomfutepedu
Follow this and additional works at httpsdigitalcommonsutepeduborder_region
Part of the Growth and Development Commons and the Regional Economics CommonsCommentsBusiness Report SR07-1
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommonsUTEP It has been acceptedfor inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommonsUTEP For more information please contactlweberutepedu
Recommended CitationFullerton Thomas M Jr Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026 (2007) Border Region Modeling Project 28httpsdigitalcommonsutepeduborder_region28
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Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border Region Modeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
The University of Texas at El Paso
Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
Business Report SR07-1
UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Price $10
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Departshyment of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Please send comments to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Ecoshynomics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP does not discriminate on the basis of race color national origin sex religion age or disability in employment or the provision of services
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio President
Richard Jarvis Provost Roberto Osegueda Vice Provost
College of Business Administration Bob Nachtmann Dean
Pat Eason Associate Dean Steve Johnson Associate Dean
Tim Roth Templeton Professor of Banking amp Economics Border Economics amp Trade
UTEP Border Region Econometric Modeling Project
Corporate and Institutional Sponsors
El Paso Electric Company
Hunt Communities Hunt Building Company
Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez UTEP College of Business Administration
UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
UACJ Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administracioacuten
Special thanks are given to the corporate and institutional sponsors of the UTEP Border Reshygion Econometric Modeling Project El Paso Electric Company and The University of Texas at El Paso have invested substantial time effort and financial resources in making this forecasting project possible Econometric research assistance for the current edition of the borderplex long-term outlook was provided by Marycruz De Leon and George Novela
Continued maintenance and expansion of the UTEP business modeling system requires ongoshying financial support For information on potential means for supporting this research effort please contact Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border Region Modeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
The University of Texas at El Paso
Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
Business Report SR07-1
UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Price $10
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Departshyment of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Please send comments to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Ecoshynomics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP does not discriminate on the basis of race color national origin sex religion age or disability in employment or the provision of services
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio President
Richard Jarvis Provost Roberto Osegueda Vice Provost
College of Business Administration Bob Nachtmann Dean
Pat Eason Associate Dean Steve Johnson Associate Dean
Tim Roth Templeton Professor of Banking amp Economics Border Economics amp Trade
UTEP Border Region Econometric Modeling Project
Corporate and Institutional Sponsors
El Paso Electric Company
Hunt Communities Hunt Building Company
Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez UTEP College of Business Administration
UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
UACJ Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administracioacuten
Special thanks are given to the corporate and institutional sponsors of the UTEP Border Reshygion Econometric Modeling Project El Paso Electric Company and The University of Texas at El Paso have invested substantial time effort and financial resources in making this forecasting project possible Econometric research assistance for the current edition of the borderplex long-term outlook was provided by Marycruz De Leon and George Novela
Continued maintenance and expansion of the UTEP business modeling system requires ongoshying financial support For information on potential means for supporting this research effort please contact Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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The University of Texas at El Paso
Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
Business Report SR07-1
UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Price $10
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Departshyment of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Please send comments to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Ecoshynomics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP does not discriminate on the basis of race color national origin sex religion age or disability in employment or the provision of services
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio President
Richard Jarvis Provost Roberto Osegueda Vice Provost
College of Business Administration Bob Nachtmann Dean
Pat Eason Associate Dean Steve Johnson Associate Dean
Tim Roth Templeton Professor of Banking amp Economics Border Economics amp Trade
UTEP Border Region Econometric Modeling Project
Corporate and Institutional Sponsors
El Paso Electric Company
Hunt Communities Hunt Building Company
Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez UTEP College of Business Administration
UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
UACJ Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administracioacuten
Special thanks are given to the corporate and institutional sponsors of the UTEP Border Reshygion Econometric Modeling Project El Paso Electric Company and The University of Texas at El Paso have invested substantial time effort and financial resources in making this forecasting project possible Econometric research assistance for the current edition of the borderplex long-term outlook was provided by Marycruz De Leon and George Novela
Continued maintenance and expansion of the UTEP business modeling system requires ongoshying financial support For information on potential means for supporting this research effort please contact Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
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Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
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While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
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Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Departshyment of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Please send comments to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Ecoshynomics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP does not discriminate on the basis of race color national origin sex religion age or disability in employment or the provision of services
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio President
Richard Jarvis Provost Roberto Osegueda Vice Provost
College of Business Administration Bob Nachtmann Dean
Pat Eason Associate Dean Steve Johnson Associate Dean
Tim Roth Templeton Professor of Banking amp Economics Border Economics amp Trade
UTEP Border Region Econometric Modeling Project
Corporate and Institutional Sponsors
El Paso Electric Company
Hunt Communities Hunt Building Company
Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez UTEP College of Business Administration
UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
UACJ Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administracioacuten
Special thanks are given to the corporate and institutional sponsors of the UTEP Border Reshygion Econometric Modeling Project El Paso Electric Company and The University of Texas at El Paso have invested substantial time effort and financial resources in making this forecasting project possible Econometric research assistance for the current edition of the borderplex long-term outlook was provided by Marycruz De Leon and George Novela
Continued maintenance and expansion of the UTEP business modeling system requires ongoshying financial support For information on potential means for supporting this research effort please contact Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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UTEP Border Region Econometric Modeling Project
Corporate and Institutional Sponsors
El Paso Electric Company
Hunt Communities Hunt Building Company
Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez UTEP College of Business Administration
UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
UACJ Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administracioacuten
Special thanks are given to the corporate and institutional sponsors of the UTEP Border Reshygion Econometric Modeling Project El Paso Electric Company and The University of Texas at El Paso have invested substantial time effort and financial resources in making this forecasting project possible Econometric research assistance for the current edition of the borderplex long-term outlook was provided by Marycruz De Leon and George Novela
Continued maintenance and expansion of the UTEP business modeling system requires ongoshying financial support For information on potential means for supporting this research effort please contact Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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-054
3
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERM ECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Thomas M Fullerton Jr Brian W Kelley and Angel L Molina Jr Department of Economics amp Finance
University of Texas at El Paso El Paso TX 79968-0543 Telephone 915-747-7747 Facsimile 915-747-6282
Email tomfutepedu
Executive Overview
Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juaacuterez borderplex economy call for steady growth On the north side of the border the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026 the last year of the forecast period (Table 1) Real gross metropolishytan product the broadest measure of local economic activity is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $315 billion (1996 dollars) Better job market condishytions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $207 billion by the end of the simulation period Given this projected state of affairs the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026 Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso As shown in Table 1 total consumption will approximate 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
El Paso Demographics
Natural increase is projected to contribute the bulk of El Pasorsquos population growth during the next two decades Resident births are projected to grow from just over 148 thousand per year in 2006 to nearly 186 thousand by 2026 Over the same period resident deaths are forecast to grow from approximately 43 thousand to approximately 61 thousand per year Net migration is expected to also contribute to population
growth throughout the simulation period (Table 2) That is a consequence of substantially stronger job market performance in El Paso Much of the latter is a direct outcome of the BRAC related expansions that will increase troop levels at Fort Bliss Because the local unemployment rate is forecast to close much of the gap that separates it from its national counterpart net domestic out-migration is forecast to drop well below the levels observed during the 1990s Given those trends the number of households in the Sun City is should exceed 2973 thousand by 2026 while autoshymobile registrations will reach nearly 830 thousand Business formation should remain strong leading to more than 16 thousand companies in operation by the end of the forecast period Of those more than 119 thousand will be retail establishments Not surprisshyingly college enrollments increase steadily under these conditions
Employment amp the El Paso Labor Market
Total employment growth is projected to slightly out-pace the rate of change for the civilian labor force in El Paso (Table 3) As a consequence of that scenario the unemployment rate trends downward over the course of the simulation period The BRAC related expansions help reverse all of the military employment losses experienced at Fort Bliss between 1980 and 1996 The large influx of soldiers civilian personnel and their dependents also fuels strong increases in public school systems and local government payrolls Strong rates of expansion are also projected for tertiary sectors of the metropolitan labor market Among
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 1
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
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Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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ERSI
TY A
VEN
UE
EL P
ASO
TEX
AS 7
9968
-054
3
the latter are health care communications business education and professional services As manufacturshying continues to become more capital intensive labor requirements across many of its various segments will decline further A similar pattern is also predicted for federal civilian payrolls Labor quality requirements for all sectors of the regional economy are intensifying Given that educational attainment will play a central role in attracting new investment and in determining worker compensation gains over the course of the next two decades
El Paso Personal Income
As shown in Table 4 El Paso personal income is foreshycast to exceed $556 billion by 2026 Among the five largest income components aging of the baby boom generation causes retirement transfers to consistently grow most rapidly during the simulation period Social security contributions are also projected to grow relashytively quickly as the national retirement wave sweeps through the United States during the next twenty years Wage and salary disbursements are not forecast to keep pace with other sources of personal income That is a continuation of the basic trend that has been observed during the last two decades in El Paso and the nation as a whole A healthy rate of business formation causes proprietor incomes to expand in step with the regional economy at-large Similarly national corposhyrate profitability growth translates into rapid growth for dividends interest and rent Because joblessness is projected to decline unemployment transfers are expected to lag behind other income categories
El Paso Retail Sales
Upward trends in demographic and income aggregates throughout the Borderplex cause retail sales to grow in El Paso (Table 5) As per capita income performance improves it leads to robust rates of expansion for dining away from home apparel and accessories and automobile sales Changing family structures also contribute toward the increases forecast for dining establishments Given the latter overall grocery store sales expand more slowly than other retail categories The outlook for new construction causes furniture and appliance sales to exhibit solid growth during the
twenty year period under consideration Total retail sales are forecast to exceed $207 billion by the year 2026
El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
The economic and demographic expansion that is projected for El Paso causes residential construction to remain strong over the course of the forecast period (Table 6) Lower levels of out-migration contribute to sustained volumes of single-family housing starts that are substantially higher than those tallied during the 1990s Total residential construction volumes push the metropolitan housing stock to greater than 350 thousand units by 2026 Good incomes performance translates into median prices for both new and existshying units that exceed $210 thousand for single-family structures by the end of the two decade period in question Higher prices larger units and moderately higher mortgage rates combine to push average El Paso housing payments exclusive of property taxes and insurance to more than $1300 per month In spite of the latter trend overall affordability improves as a consequence of sustained income growth in future years
El Paso Air Transportation
Economic expansion ongoing population growth and more rapid business delivery practices combine to increase the demand for air transportation services to El Paso and the surrounding Paso del Norte region As shown in Table 8 total passenger traffic at El Paso International Airport is projected to surpass 62 milshylion persons by 2026 Most of the passenger traffic is expected to be on domestic rather than international flights Model simulations indicate that air-borne freight should more than double from current levels during the years under consideration In-bound deshyliveries of inputs and final products are projected to eclipse the 128 thousand ton mark by 2026 Out-bound freight volumes are also forecast to expand rapidly over the same period
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 2
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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3
International Bridge Activity
As reported in Table 9 northbound bridge flows from Ciudad Juaacuterez into El Paso are projected to grow steadily through the end of the simulation period By 2026 the total number of pedestrians crossing the international bridges should exceed 98 million As a consequence of expanding populations and car regisshytrations on both sides of the river the total number of automobile crossings is expected to reach 264 million Expansion of the maquiladora in-bond assembly sector throughout the state of Chihuahua continues to result in increased cargo vehicle flows into Central and East El Paso By the end of the forecast period more than 13 million trucks per year are projected to clear US Customs on this side of the border The highest volshyumes of pedestrian traffic are still likely to cross the downtown Paso del Norte Bridge while the greatest numbers of automobiles are projected at the Bridge of the Americas Geographic expansion to the east is likely to cause growth in all three traffic categories at the Ysleta-Zaragoza point of entry To reduce bottleshynecks and infrastructure overload at all three bridges more regional arteries personnel and technology will be needed to ease the international congestion jointly faced by El Paso and Ciudad Juaacuterez
El Paso Hotels
The number of hotels in operation in El Paso County is forecast to cross the century mark by 2026 That growth translates into more than 375 million room nights capacity While the projected rate of expanshysion in this sector is impressive it is accompanied by steadily higher occupancy rates The latter trend implies that profitability should remain healthy over the course of the forecast period Room rates are proshyjected to also increase as a consequence of the higher occupancies Total revenues are expected to exceed $335 million in 2026
El Paso Water Consumption
Water conservation efforts in El Paso have met with considerable success in recent years Aggregate usage per customer is forecast to continue to decline steadily for much of the forecast period under consideration in
Table 11 Although lower per capita demand levels are forecast for all four broadly defined customer categories the growth in new hook-ups is projected to more than offset the gains from increased consumpshytion efficiency Single-family residential meters are expected surpass 2192 thousand connections by 2026 Commercial class accounts are projected to approach the 10 thousand mark while not-elsewhere-classified hook-ups go above 37 thousand that same year Exshypansion of the El Paso Water Utilities customer grid is thus projected to steadily raise system-wide aggregate water usage Model simulations indicate that total consumption will reach nearly 458 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period
Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Activity
Good employment opportunities are expected to enshycourage steady volumes of in-migration from central and southern regions of Mexico to Ciudad Juaacuterez in coming years (Table 12) That in combination with fairly high levels of natural increase results in populashytion of nearly 26 million residents in the ldquoColossus of the Northrdquo by 2026 Strong demographic expansion plus improving income performance on the south side of the river cause connections to the municipal water grid in Ciudad Juaacuterez to grow to 754 thousand accounts by the end of the simulation period A relashytively progressive rates policy causes a portion of that growth to be offset by better consumption efficiencies but aggregate usage still grows to nearly 318 million cubic meters per year in 2026 Maquiladora activities spur many of the expected demographic and industrial changes Total in-bond assembly employment is foreshycast to grow to more than 417 thousand in 2026 (Table 13) More capital intensive investment is expected to increase plant scales to the point where the number of employees per factory surpasses the 1000 mark by the mid-point of the period under consideration Value-added rises steadily due to real per capita output growth Hourly wages inclusive of benefits should approximate $689 by 2026
Chihuahua City Economic Activity
Strong rates of growth are also projected for the maquishyladora sector in Chihuahua Chihuahua (Table 15) In
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 3
percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
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Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
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The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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percentage terms employment growth in this emergshying in-bond assembly center will be greater than that observed in Ciudad Juaacuterez The latter is accompanied by an increase in the number of factories in operation in the state capital as well as the scale of those operations Hourly wages (inclusive of benefits) also increase in real terms as a result of enhanced productivity Anshynual output generated at the maquiladora plants in Chihuahua City is projected to exceed $34 billion by 2026 Formal sector jobs increase at a rapid clip for the period under consideration growing to more than 346 thousand Economic expansion also allows population to expand to greater than 1 million by the end of the forecast period Not surprisingly these circumstances cause the municipal water grid to expand to more than 361 thousand hook-ups (Table 14) Aggregate water consumption increases to nearly 95 million cubic meshyters over the course of the simulation period Given the outlook for the metropolitan economy in Chihuahua City retail and wholesale activity also expand at fairly rapid rates
Las Cruces Economic Conditions
The Las Cruces New Mexico metropolitan economy is also projected to expand substantially in future years As shown in Table 16 real GMP is projected to more than double by 2026 Population is forecast to surpass 274 thousand during the same period Employment growth in the Greater Mesilla Valley labor market is expected to benefit from strong demand for workers in various service-oriented sectors (Table 17) Those factors help university and college enrollments to trend upwards also Due to the robust long-term outlook for employment wage and salary disbursements account for a large percentage of the increases forecast for pershysonal income in DontildeaAna County (Table 18) Because of its status as a retirement destination senior citizen migration to Las Cruces causes retirement transfers to grow rapidly reaching more than $38 billion annually by 2026 Growing numbers of wealthy retirees also help property incomes to swell to more than $27 bilshylion per year by that year
Historical and Forecast Data
Tables 1 through 18 summarize the numerical results from the long-term forecast simulation to 2026 using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model Forecasts for El Paso and Las Cruces income employment and El Paso business establishments begin in 2005 Foreshycasts for all other data series begin in 2006 Readers should note that most of the historical series utilized in the model were subject to important data revisions by governmental estimation and collection agencies in both countries in 2005 At present the model contains 208 equations covering all of the categories listed in the tables Suggestions and requests for next yearrsquos volume are welcome Please send them to Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Departshyment of Economics amp Finance 500 West University El Paso TX 79968-0543
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 4
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
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Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force and Employment
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction
amp Real Estate
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
Table 8 El Paso Air Transportation
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
Table 10 El Paso Hotel Activity
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
Table 12 Ciudad Juaacuterez Demographic Indicators
Table 13 Ciudad Juaacuterez Economic Indicators
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic
amp Commercial Indicators
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographics
amp Other Indicators
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 5
Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 1 Major Indicators for El Paso
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
El Paso Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
El Paso Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
El Paso Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
El Paso Labor amp Proprietor Earnings 43165 57922 74511 103427 136131 178358 230535 295077 380055 change 38 342 286 388 316 31 293 28 288
El Paso Real GMP 949 10603 1283 14265 17017 19957 23457 27383 31583 change 84 117 21 112 193 173 175 167 153
El Paso Businesses 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
El Paso Total Jobs 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Jobless Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
El Paso Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
El Paso New House Prices 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
El Paso Retail Sales 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
International Bridge Car Traffic 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
El Paso Water Consumption 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Notes 1 El Paso population in thousands 2 El Paso net migration in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Total El Paso business establishments in thousands 6 Total El Paso employment in thousands 7 El Paso unemployment rate in percentage terms 8 Total El Paso housing starts in thousands 9 El Paso median new single-family house prices in thousands of nominal dollars 10 El Paso total retail sales reported in millions of nominal dollars 11 Total northbound international bridge crossings are in millions of personal vehicles 12 Total El Paso water consumption in billion gallons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 6
Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 2 El Paso Demographics
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 549592 608206 656482 687635 731246 784212 841766 902607 965367 change 105 107 79 47 63 72 73 72 7
Resident Births 11562 14593 1491 14189 14806 15859 16716 17611 18567 change 53 262 22 -48 43 71 54 54 54
Resident Deaths 2984 3344 3746 4035 4314 4584 5024 5556 614 change 19 121 12 77 69 62 96 106 105
Net Migration 2205 1607 -8932 -4027 -0843 -028 0139 0292 026
Domestic Migration -4889 -2703 -1558 -9111 -542 -4909 -4281 -407 -4033 International Migration 7094 431 6648 5084 4577 4629 442 4362 4293
Households 169033 183379 199127 213088 228117 242989 259714 277989 297365 change 151 85 86 7 71 65 69 70 70
Automobile Registrations 341486 362404 39692 457576 521661 598972 677765 7547 828025 change 174 61 95 153 14 148 132 114 97
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Business Establishments 10218 11158 12034 12214 12769 13567 14394 15194 16013 change 253 92 79 15 45 62 61 56 54
Retail Outlets 8558 932 10152 9781 98 10481 10972 11436 11907 change 303 89 89 -37 02 69 47 42 41
Business Bankruptcies UN 41 78 94 105 112 120 127 134 change UN UN 902 205 117 7 69 57 55
Personal Bankruptcies UN 1435 2367 3153 3036 3164 3335 3410 3498 change UN UN 649 332 -37 42 54 22 26
UTEP Fall Enrollment 13753 16795 15386 1622 19842 22446 25587 28955 32447 change -108 221 -84 54 223 131 14 132 121
EPCC Fall Enrollment 12249 17192 1971 18561 24839 27755 31746 36111 40494 change 786 404 146 -58 338 117 144 137 121
Notes 1 Business and personal bankruptcy data reported in actual units 2 All other data are reported in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 7
Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 3 El Paso Labor Force amp Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Civilian Labor Force 243872 290664 327036 341106 368169 403292 435558 467433 499341 change 99 192 125 43 79 95 8 73 68
Unemployment Rate 115 117 116 82 71 7 69 68 66
Total Employment 235286 271741 29947 325114 355903 391263 423604 455499 487943 change 56 155 102 86 95 99 83 75 71
El Paso Construction 13283 11801 16839 18351 20878 21742 23028 25169 27654 change 245 -112 427 9 138 41 59 93 99
Manufacturing 36412 42305 45929 36432 24148 21851 20822 20165 19664 change -135 162 86 -207 -337 -95 -47 -32 -25
Local Government 24544 31152 35253 40459 43309 47527 51069 54691 58638 change 171 269 132 148 7 97 75 71 72
State Government 3643 4271 693 7745 7706 8244 8805 9336 9933 change -209 172 623 118 -05 7 68 6 64
Federal Civilian Govt 9499 9365 8642 8478 8926 9412 9495 9677 9804 change 136 -14 -77 -19 53 55 09 19 13
Military Employment 19506 15085 1037 11979 13795 16369 1831 2008 21642 change -59 -227 -313 155 152 187 119 97 78
Not Elsewhere Classified 128399 157762 175507 20167 23714 266116 292076 316383 340608 change 113 229 112 149 176 122 98 83 77
Notes 1 Labor force data are in thousands 2 Unemployment rate data are in percentages 3 Employment data are in thousands 4 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 8
Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
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_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
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Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 4 El Paso Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 55041 75381 100231 135105 175077 235509 316633 419116 556225 change 433 37 33 348 296 345 344 324 327
Wages and Salaries 33223 44565 56541 72052 90214 117765 150913 191148 242482 change 328 341 269 274 252 305 281 267 269
Other Labor Income 6044 8101 8752 11515 18483 22789 28749 34634 42611 change 54 34 8 316 605 233 261 205 23
Proprietor Incomes 3899 5255 9218 19859 27434 37804 50873 69295 94963 change 654 348 754 1154 381 378 346 362 37
Social Ins Cntrbns 2099 3112 4121 5344 6937 9216 12199 16333 20785 change 467 483 324 297 298 329 324 339 273
Residence Adjustments -1982 -3038 -4057 -5397 -6052 -6689 -7488 -8524 -973 change 516 533 335 33 121 105 119 138 142
Dividends Int Rent 8996 12057 14698 17715 17496 2565 38511 52951 71182 change 675 34 219 205 -12 466 501 375 344
Retirement Transfers 5746 9279 15019 20229 27412 37665 53295 7603 107462 change 56 615 619 347 355 374 415 427 413
Income Maint Transfers 1015 2154 4036 4336 6875 9583 13817 19745 27863 change 607 1121 874 74 586 394 442 429 411
Unemployment Transfers 199 119 145 139 151 157 164 169 178 change 203 -405 22 -37 84 42 4 36 48
Notes 1 All income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 9
Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
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Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
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The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 5 El Paso Gross Retail Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total 29378 38871 52584 63541 81451 10179 129605 164066 207272 change 247 323 353 208 282 25 273 266 263
Hardware Stores 1678 2303 299 3384 4861 6401 8544 11243 14744 change 271 372 298 132 436 317 335 316 311
General Merchandise 4296 5916 7729 11131 15138 18992 23325 28164 33723 change -71 377 306 44 36 255 228 207 197
Food Stores 5988 8083 9423 8682 9604 9836 10226 10626 11013 change 487 35 166 -79 106 24 4 39 36
Automobiles and Fuel 7294 7624 13497 16041 22241 27658 36202 4733 60821 change 328 45 77 189 386 244 309 307 285
Apparel amp Accessories 172 3569 3467 4927 5193 6766 9137 12357 16804 change 269 1075 -29 421 54 303 35 352 36
Furniture amp Appliances 1974 2947 3843 4239 5004 6398 8278 10391 13093 change 749 493 304 103 18 279 294 255 26
Dining Establishments 2911 3783 4702 6034 7892 10676 14094 18201 23388 change 66 299 243 283 308 353 32 291 285
Miscellaneous Retail 3516 4645 6934 9102 11519 15062 1980 25755 33686 change -89 321 493 313 266 308 315 301 308
Notes 1 All sales figures are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Hardware stores include hardware garden supply and building materials stores plus mobile home dealers 3 General merchandise stores include department variety and miscellaneous dry goods stores 4 Food stores include grocery stores seafood markets vegetable stands candy stores bakeries and dairy outlets 5 Automobiles and fuel includes car and motorcycle dealers auto parts stores gasoline service stations water and rec vehicle dealers 6 Dining establishments include restaurants caterers ice cream parlors cafes bars and nightclubs 7 Miscellaneous includes pharmacies liquor sporting good book jewelry luggage toy camera optical florist and souvenir stores
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 10
Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 6 El Paso Residential Construction amp Real Estate
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Housing Starts 6457 207 363 3915 4926 5222 5118 5542 5802 change 758 -679 754 79 258 6 -2 83 47
Single-Family Starts 4637 19 26 3762 4093 4216 4315 4719 4946 change 813 -59 368 447 88 3 24 94 48
Multi-Family Starts 182 017 103 0153 0832 1006 0803 0823 0857 change 631 -907 5059 -851 4439 209 -202 25 41
Total Housing Stock 2078 2253 235 2481 2697 2934 3145 3318 352 change 153 84 43 56 87 88 72 55 61
Single-Family Stock 1481 1631 1713 1837 2038 2246 2434 2591 278 change 108 101 5 72 109 102 84 65 73
Multi-Family Stock 596 622 637 644 659 688 711 727 74 change 281 43 24 12 22 45 34 21 18
Median New Price 67708 79254 9043 99204 124114 145845 172422 204513 241275 change 7 171 141 97 251 175 182 186 18
Median Resale Price 5905 6585 76075 8625 114325 131617 155434 184784 218448 change -27 115 155 134 326 151 181 189 182
Average Monthly Payment 492 522 530 559 671 831 974 1139 1337 change -257 61 16 54 20 238 172 17 174
Affordability Index 1484 1797 2114 2419 2323 2398 2551 2692 2838 change 619 211 176 144 -4 32 64 55 54
Existing Units Sold 6197 8536 9773 14901 22536 23993 26538 29563 32958 change -164 377 145 525 512 65 106 114 115
Notes 1 Housing start and stock data are in thousands 2 Affordability index increases as household income strengthens relative to mortgage payments 3 Average monthly mortgage payment is in current dollars 4 Existing housing units sold includes both stand-alone and multi-family units 5 Median new and existing home prices are for stand-alone units and quoted in thousands of dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 11
Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 7 El Paso Nonresidential Construction
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Nonresidential Space 17455 184861 269269 278392 376469 412691 507284 637083 806619 change 447 59 457 34 352 96 229 256 266
Industrial Space Permits 19057 5929 2713 1923 10188 12633 13363 14862 20439 change 17 -689 3576 -929 4297 24 58 112 375
Office Space Permit Values 17144 15782 16727 10971 18669 20118 26951 33848 39441 change 161 -79 6 -344 702 78 34 256 165
Other Commercial Space 961 85264 162593 206246 229735 256877 324443 419861 545326 change 207 -113 907 268 114 118 263 294 299
Miscellaneous Nonres 42249 77886 62819 59251 117877 123063 142527 168512 201413 change 326 843 -193 -57 989 44 158 182 195
Notes 1 All nonresidential construction permits data are quoted in millions of dollars 2 Other commercial permits include service stations retail stores parking garages warehouses and public utilities 3 Miscellaneous includes port facilities recreational buildings sports stadiums swimming pools and health care facilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 12
Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 8 El Paso International Airport
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Passenger Arrivals 11971 16104 17593 15273 17066 21386 2564 2860 3097 change 24 345 92 -132 117 253 199 115 83
Domestic Arrivals 1193 16008 17435 15166 17064 21283 25525 28465 30813 change 287 342 89 -13 125 247 199 115 82
International Arrivals 4057 9549 15817 10726 0208 10357 11556 13513 15744 change -894 1354 656 -322 -981 48745 116 169 165
Passenger Departures 12217 16774 18018 15644 1729 21489 25973 28914 31342 change 275 373 74 -132 105 243 209 113 84
Domestic Departures 12175 16668 17857 1554 17288 21386 25858 28779 31185 change 305 369 71 -13 112 237 209 113 84
International Departures 427 10541 16062 10345 0217 10308 11488 1348 15641 change -835 1469 524 -356 -979 46417 114 173 16
In-Bound Freight 11845 22884 39803 46013 50424 59613 72639 93435 128644 change 165267 134957 75881 37372 3609 41413 42011 38373 32146
Out-Bound Freight 12033 16046 30593 33599 38589 48775 6717 90073 115741 change 965 333 907 98 149 264 377 341 285
In-Bound Mail 2759 1642 387 3378 1807 2337 2618 2906 3122 change -264 -405 1357 -127 -465 293 12 11 75
Out-Bound Mail 1617 1668 2028 1362 0236 0397 0583 0762 0935 change -254 32 216 -329 -827 683 469 306 227
Notes 1 El Paso International Airport passenger data are in thousands 2 El Paso International Airport freight data are in thousand tons 3 El Paso International Airport mail data are in thousand tons
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 13
Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
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The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 9 Northbound International Bridge Traffic
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pedestrians All Bridges 6032 5155 4449 7198 7026 6819 7745 8757 9878 change 23 -145 -137 618 -24 -29 136 131 128
Cars All Bridges 11958 12413 15098 16184 16137 18004 20694 23631 26451 change -136 38 216 72 -03 116 149 142 119
Trucks All Bridges 0168 052 0585 0666 0771 0862 0994 1165 1313 change -191 2091 126 139 157 119 153 172 127
Cordova Bridge BOTA Pedestrians 0491 0646 0648 0769 0542 0606 0702 0801 0921 change -12 316 02 188 -295 117 159 141 15
BOTA Personal Vehicles 5898 6613 7863 7295 8367 9507 10859 12398 13727 change -141 121 189 -72 147 136 142 142 107
BOTA Cargo Vehicles 0158 0437 0245 0335 0384 0422 0494 0575 0632 change -02 1767 -439 368 146 10 17 164 98
Paso del Norte Bridge PDN Pedestrians 5217 4261 3466 5927 582 5507 6211 6984 783 change 201 -183 -186 71 -18 -54 128 124 121
PDN Personal Vehicles 4358 4177 4355 4632 3304 3516 3779 4084 4451 change -143 -42 43 64 -287 64 75 81 9
DCL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN 0386 1268 1378 1487 1576 1621 change UN UN UN UN 2285 87 8 6 28
Ysleta Zaragoza Bridge Ysleta Pedestrians 0325 0248 0335 0502 0664 0707 0832 0972 1127 change 4097 -236 35 501 323 64 177 168 159
Ysleta Personal Vehicles 1702 1624 288 3871 3198 3604 4568 5574 6652 change -97 -46 774 344 -174 127 267 22 194
Ysleta Cargo Vehicles 001 0083 034 0331 0387 044 05 059 0682 change -792 7048 310 -27 168 137 137 179 156
DYL Personal Vehicles UN UN UN UN 0072 0079 0087 0094 0099 change UN UN UN UN UN 108 101 81 49
Notes 1 All bridge data are for northbound traffic categories into the City of El Paso 2 Pedestrian personal vehicle (cars light trucks mini-vans) and cargo vehicle data are reported in millions 3 DCL and DYL are acronyms for Stanton Dedicated Commuter Lane and Ysleta Dedicated Commuter Lane respectively
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 14
Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 10 El Paso County Hotel Activity
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Hotels in Operation UN 63 63 72 76 82 88 95 101 change UN UN 0 143 56 79 73 8 63
Room Nights Available UN 24498 2461 26877 28492 30625 32959 35598 37931 change UN UN 05 92 6 75 76 8 66
Room Nights Sold UN 1408 14658 1655 18753 20901 22945 25405 27373 change UN UN 41 129 133 115 98 107 77
Hotel Occupancy Rate UN 575 596 616 658 682 696 714 722
Hotel Room Price UN 4606 4931 5452 6254 7222 8402 10026 12311 change UN UN 71 106 147 155 163 193 228
Actual Revenue per Room UN 2647 2937 3357 4117 4929 5849 7155 8884 change UN UN 109 143 226 197 187 223 242
Total Revenues UN 6485 72275 90233 117292 150949 19279 254721 337 change UN UN 114 248 30 287 277 321 323
Notes 1 El Paso County hotel room night data are reported in thousands 2 El Paso County hotel pricing data are reported in nominal dollars 3 Total hotel revenues are reported in million nominal dollars
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 15
Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 11 El Paso Water Consumption
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Water Customers 118768 13171 14814 167448 189846 212125 232328 250174 271419 change 141 109 125 13 134 117 95 77 85
Single-Family Meters 104044 112612 123432 136286 154293 172195 188765 202556 219218 change 146 82 96 104 132 116 96 73 82
Multi-Family Meters 4881 4918 4764 473 4765 4815 4861 49 4937 change 25 08 -31 -07 07 11 1 08 07
Commercial Business Meters 7457 7622 8224 8973 8583 8953 9296 9627 9955 change 108 22 79 91 -44 43 38 36 34
Industrial Business Meters 0125 0199 0196 0206 0184 0188 0194 0202 0213 change 302 592 -15 51 -107 2 33 42 53
Other Meter Connections 2261 6359 11524 17253 22022 25973 29213 32888 37097 change 293 1812 812 497 276 179 125 126 128
Total Water Consumed 30736 31134 34648 35387 33409 35902 38919 41952 45799 change 86 13 113 21 -56 75 84 78 92
Single-Family Gallons 17341 16044 18803 19932 18992 20877 22824 24533 26741 change 93 -75 172 6 -47 99 93 75 9
Multi-Family Gallons 3366 4033 3521 3525 315 3113 3166 3175 3243 change 24 198 -127 01 -106 -12 17 03 21
Commercial Gallons Cons 5622 4264 4363 437 3882 4018 4201 4392 4585 change 76 -241 23 02 -112 35 46 46 44
Industrial Gallons Consumed 0614 315 1176 0496 0435 0405 0427 0451 0484 change -339 413 -627 -578 -124 -69 55 56 73
Other Water Consumption 3793 3642 6786 7064 695 749 8301 94 10746 change 61 -4 863 41 -16 78 108 132 143
Notes 1 Water customer meter connections are reported in thousands 2 El Paso water consumption data are reported in billion gallons 3 Other water accounts include schools parks churches and government agencies
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 16
Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 12 Ciudad Juarez Demographic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Ciudad Juarez Population 701489 832834 1057316 1297379 1510132 1765547 2051223 2339896 2591215 change 193 187 27 227 164 169 162 141 107
Resident Births 19342 18858 24873 3342 29052 33839 38169 42571 46608 change 61 -25 319 344 -131 165 128 115 95
Resident Deaths 4471 4184 5028 5822 6393 7243 8149 9169 10292 change 20 -64 202 158 98 133 125 125 122
Net Migration 9505 19661 25685 50964 26814 27073 2935 22389 10093
Domestic Migration 16599 23971 32333 56048 3139 31703 3377 26751 14386 International Migration -7094 -431 -6648 -5084 -4577 -4629 -442 -4362 -4293
Cd Juarez Water Meters 119821 17187 219007 273954 355909 441455 537437 643537 753981 change 37 434 274 251 299 24 217 197 172
Total Water Consumption 8899 120599 141098 160205 172968 2073 24283 280246 31779 change 229 355 17 135 8 198 171 154 134
Notes 1 All Ciudad Juarez population data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez water meter connections are expressed in thousands 3 Ciudad Juarez water consumption is reported in million cubic meters
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 17
Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 13 Ciudad Juarez Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 86526 123971 172926 228445 230169 28849 339219 384238 417427 change 967 433 395 321 08 253 176 133 86
Juarez Maquiladora Plants 180 255 264 307 294 307 317 323 328 change 452 417 35 163 -42 44 33 19 15
Average Hourly Wages 103 208 203 386 435 49 548 611 689 change -495 1015 -24 899 128 125 117 117 128
Total Value Added 4574 10973 14447 35352 41649 59104 77386 9699 117404 change 242 1399 317 1447 178 419 309 253 21
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 213482 28651 375988 381954 489825 57915 659326 718761 change UN UN 342 312 16 282 182 138 9
Total Mfg Employment UN 136329 195642 248757 239069 303473 357144 403761 436433 change UN UN 435 271 -39 269 177 131 81
Commerce Employment UN 29449 26402 402 4208 54004 63997 73778 82223 change UN UN -103 523 47 283 185 153 114
Regulated Industry Emp UN 5713 6856 11851 1192 15978 2025 24178 27363 change UN UN 20 729 06 34 267 194 132
Services amp Other Emp UN 41991 5761 7518 88885 11637 137759 157609 172742 change UN UN 372 305 182 309 184 144 96
Retail Sales Activity UN UN 929 954 1261 1626 1956 2271 2542 change UN UN UN 27 322 29 203 161 119
Wholesale Activity UN UN 859 114 1015 1362 1676 1989 2304 change UN UN UN 327 -11 342 23 187 159
Notes 1 Ciudad Juarez employment data are reported in thousands 2 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollar equivalents and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Ciudad Juarez maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Ciudad Juarez formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities 7 Inflation adjusted retail index and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 18
Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 14 Chihuahua City Demographic amp Commercial Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Chihuahua City Population 482169 548902 636282 694426 740148 805563 872725 941009 1010434 change 143 138 159 91 66 88 83 78 74
Chihuahua City Water Meters UN 7545 127469 186026 225402 26324 296918 329485 361982 change UN UN 689 459 212 168 128 11 99
Total Water Consumption UN 4785 55006 64149 61721 72325 79683 86977 9458 change UN UN 15 166 -38 172 102 92 87
Retail Activity Index UN UN 822 992 1287 1556 1847 2168 243 change UN UN UN 207 298 209 187 174 121
Wholesale Activity Index UN UN 764 972 1044 1223 1452 1694 191 change UN UN UN 272 74 172 187 167 128
Notes 1 Chihuahua City population and water meter data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City water consumption data are reported in million cubic meters 3 Chihuahua City inflation adjusted retail and wholesale index base years are 2003 = 100
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 19
Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
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Table 15 Chihuahua City Economic Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Maquiladora Emp 20751 31498 33069 4299 45864 60961 73671 86108 100515 change 3119 518 5 30 67 329 208 169 167
Chihuahua City Maq Plants 41 57 67 81 76 84 89 94 99 change 783 39 175 209 -62 105 6 56 53
Maq Average Hourly Wages 089 202 209 465 483 542 605 678 762 change -469 1279 35 1223 39 122 116 121 123
Total Value Added 815 2706 3251 9914 10576 15929 21074 27023 34673 change 1189 2322 201 2049 67 506 323 282 283
Total Formal Sector Emp UN 131633 137348 180359 183931 235478 273083 310233 346693 change UN UN 43 313 2 28 16 136 118
Total Mfg Employment UN 44582 57271 80755 7143 88092 101469 111199 119361 change UN UN 285 41 -115 233 152 96 73
Commerce Employment UN 17524 21682 32982 36915 50197 64632 79104 93536 change UN UN 237 521 119 36 288 224 182
Regulated Industry Emp UN 10765 9183 9001 9187 10948 12509 14041 15568 change UN UN -147 -2 21 192 143 122 109
Services amp Other Emp UN 58762 49212 57621 66398 86241 94473 105889 118229 change UN UN -163 171 152 299 95 121 117
Notes 1 Chihuahua City employment data are reported in thousands 2 Chihuahua City maquiladora hourly wages are reported in nominal dollars and include benefits 3 The maquiladora industry standard work week is 45 hours 4 Chihuahua City maquiladora value-added data are expressed in millions of nominal dollars 5 Chihuahua City formal sector jobs are those covered by the social security system in Mexico 6 Regulated sectors include transportation communications and public utilities
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 20
Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 16 Las Cruces Demographic amp Other Indicators
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population 120474 141228 165618 176598 193536 214909 23459 253982 274178 change 209 172 173 66 96 11 92 83 8
Business Establishments 221 2626 3084 3226 3573 3904 4138 4346 4573 change 428 188 174 46 108 93 6 5 52
Business Bankruptcies UN 18 49 65 67 74 79 84 89 change UN UN 1722 327 31 104 68 63 6
Personal Bankruptcies UN 353 382 626 906 938 973 991 1020 change UN UN 82 639 447 36 37 19 29
NMSU Fall Enrollment 13718 15344 14748 15224 16264 18045 19835 21876 24009 change 105 119 -39 32 68 11 99 103 97
DABCC Fall Enrollment 0625 3423 3883 4717 6921 8705 10534 12259 13706 change UN 4477 134 215 467 258 21 164 118
Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 65 439 381 357 344 411 381 345 337
Labor and Proprietor Earnings 8915 12201 15492 20681 29445 39942 52654 68098 8805 change 58 368 27 335 424 357 318 293 293
Real GMP 1821 2136 2379 2686 3576 4512 5501 6689 8169 change 239 173 114 129 331 262 219 216 221
Total Employment 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Notes 1 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County 2 Population college enrollment and business establishment data are in thousands 3 All income and earnings data are expressed in millions of dollars 3 Labor and proprietor earnings encompass wage and salary disbursements other labor income and proprietor earnings 4 Real gross metropolitan product data are expressed in billions of 1996 dollars 5 Employment data are expressed in thousands
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 21
Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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Table 17 Las Cruces Employment
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Las Cruces Total Emp 50221 60362 6748 76905 89725 101593 111487 120512 129733 change 247 202 118 14 167 132 97 81 77
Construction Employment 3312 309 4619 4515 6053 6594 7098 7727 8553 change 521 -67 495 -23 341 89 76 89 107
Manufacturing 3621 3151 2988 3368 3936 4149 4376 4588 4814 change 306 -13 -52 127 169 54 55 48 49
State Government 6 664 7149 8603 9185 10009 10682 11263 1184 change 287 107 77 203 68 9 67 54 51
Local Government 4826 6165 752 7039 8358 912 9708 10227 10748 change 204 277 22 -64 187 91 65 53 51
Federal Civilian Govt 4355 4543 3816 3349 3421 35 3596 3717 3807 change 36 43 -16 -122 21 23 27 34 24
Military Employment 0703 0777 0714 0631 0623 0661 0674 0695 0712 change 255 105 -81 -116 -13 62 18 31 25
Not Elsewhere Classified 27404 35996 40674 494 58149 67559 75353 82295 89258 change 253 314 13 215 177 162 115 92 85
Notes 1 Employment data are expressed in thousands 2 Not Elsewhere Classified includes communications services retail financial and other employment categories
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 22
Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
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Table 18 Las Cruces Personal Income
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Total Personal Income 12838 18474 25504 3460 46519 65644 90649 121951 163042 change 77 72 48 109 84 67 66 59 6
Wages and Salaries 6454 8678 11327 1509 21232 28793 37788 48673 62377 change 56 58 45 4 78 6 54 51 51
Other Labor Income 1097 1633 2047 2516 4257 5489 7131 8767 10956 change 47 79 15 62 89 57 47 43 47
Proprietor Incomes 1365 1889 2118 3075 3956 5659 7735 10658 14717 change 184 38 -106 514 83 68 62 67 66
Social Ins Cntrbns 389 629 864 1146 1618 2242 3046 4151 5336 change 106 112 33 64 83 66 62 67 52
Residence Adjustments 30 692 1377 2175 2581 3524 4748 627 8176 change 361 224 78 75 64 64 6 56 54
Dividends Int Rent 2438 3484 487 6125 5986 9493 14692 20441 27404 change 77 64 104 119 96 83 94 61 6
Retirement Transfers 1302 2186 3669 5719 8518 12649 18309 26584 38092 change 7 11 83 184 98 77 78 76 75
Inc Maint Transfers 222 485 891 944 1492 2157 3169 4581 6527 change 105 213 10 16 86 81 78 74 72
Unemployment Transfers 5 56 69 102 116 121 124 127 13 change -106 239 46 -11 -67 05 05 05 05
Notes 1 All Las Cruces income data are expressed in millions of dollars 2 Social insurance contributions are deducted from total regional income estimates 3 Retirement transfer payments include social security and other retirement payments 4 Income maintenance transfers include aid to families with dependent children and other payments 5 Unemployment transfer payments include unemployment insurance payments to individuals 6 The Las Cruces metropolitan economy is comprised by Dona Ana County
UTEP Business Report SR07-1 bull March 2007 Page 23
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
N A
DD
RES
SBO
RD
ER R
EGIO
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OD
ELIN
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ndash C
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OF
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EL P
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9968
-054
3
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
The University of Texas at El Paso Announces
Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 UTEP is pleased to announce the availability of the 2004 edition of its primary source of border
business information Topics covered include demography employment personal income retail sales residential real estate transportation international commerce water consumption and cross border manushyfacturing Forecasts are generated utilizing the 208-equation UTEP Border Region Econometric Model developed under the auspices of a corporate research gift from El Paso Electric Company
The authors of this publication are UTEP Wells Fargo Professor Tom Fullerton and UTEP Assoshyciate Economist Brian Kelley Dr Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP Iowa State University Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Florida Prior experience includes positions as Economist in the Executive Office of the Governor of Idaho International Economist in the Latin America Service of Wharton Econometrics and Senior Economist at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida Brian Kelley holds an MS in Economics from UTEP and has published research on housing sector and retail sales econometric forecast accuracy
The border business outlook for 2006 through 2008 can be purchased for $10 per copy Each subshyscription entitles your organization to free admission to the next UTEP Border Economic Forum plus free copies of future Border Region Technical Reports Please indicate to what address the report(s) should be mailed (also include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to University of Texas at El Paso for $10 to
Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics amp Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0543
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
N A
DD
RES
SBO
RD
ER R
EGIO
N M
OD
ELIN
G P
RO
JECT
ndash C
BA 2
36U
TEP
DEP
ARTM
ENT
OF
ECO
NO
MIC
S amp
FIN
ANCE
500
WES
T U
NIV
ERSI
TY A
VEN
UE
EL P
ASO
TEX
AS 7
9968
-054
3
_____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________
Texas Western Press Announces the Publication of
Inflationary Studies for Latin AmericaTexas Western Press of the University of Texas at El Paso is pleased to announce Inflationary
Studies for Latin America a joint publication with Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez Editors of this new collection are Cuauteacutemoc Calderoacuten Villarreal of the Department of Economics at Universidad Autoacutenoma de Ciudad Juaacuterez and Tom Fullerton of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Unishyversity of Texas at El Paso The forward to this book is by Abel Beltraacuten del Riacuteo President and Founder of CIEMEX-WEFA
Professor Calderoacuten is an award winning economist who has taught and published in Mexico France and the United States Dr Calderoacuten spent a year as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Texas at El Paso Professor Fullerton has published research articles in North America Europe Africa South America and Asia The author of several econometric forecasts regarding impacts of the Brady Initiative for Debt Relief in Latin America Dr Fullerton has delivered economics lectures in Canada Colombia Ecuador Finland Germany Japan Korea Mexico the United States and Venezuela
Inflationary Studies for Latin America can be purchased for $1250 per copy Please indicate to what address the book(s) should be mailed (please include telephone fax and email address)
Send checks made out to Texas Western Press for $1250 to
Texas Western Press Hertzog Building 500 West University Avenue El Paso TX 79968-0633
Request information from tomfutepedu if payment in pesos is preferred
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
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-054
3
The Center for Law and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso
proudly announces
The Journal of Law amp Border Studies
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal publishing original scholarship on issues of law and policy that have particular relevance to the US-Mexico border region Topics include trade laws practices and treaties health and safety regulations and policies crime and public safety on both sides of the border legal protection of the natural environment in the border region immigration migration and refugee movements across the border and regional public administration and policymaking
While the articles section of the Journal is designed to appeal to a scholarly audience we also have a section titled Policy Briefs which includes shorter pieces that are meant to interest those whose careers relate to issues unique to the border area Policy briefs supply interesting and timely information about border initiatives laws and programs to help professionals policy-makers lobbyists elected officials and concerned citizens keep abreast of policy changes affecting the frontier community
The Journal of Law and Border Studies is published annually The subscription price is $1000 for individuals and institutions Subscription checks should be made payable to the Journal of Law and Border Studies and mailed with a letter giving the address to which the Journal should be sent Questions regarding subscriptions and billing should be addressed to
Center for Law and Border Studies University of Texas at El Paso
Benedict Hall 101 El Paso TX 79968-0547
Telephone (915) 747-7973 Fax(915) 747-6105
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
N A
DD
RES
SBO
RD
ER R
EGIO
N M
OD
ELIN
G P
RO
JECT
ndash C
BA 2
36U
TEP
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ARTM
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OF
ECO
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MIC
S amp
FIN
ANCE
500
WES
T U
NIV
ERSI
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VEN
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EL P
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TEX
AS 7
9968
-054
3
The University of Texas at El Paso Technical Report Series
TX97-1 Currency Movements and International Border Crossings TX97-2 New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics TX97-3 Multimodal Approaches to Land Use Planning TX97-4 Empirical Models for Secondary Market Debt Prices TX97-5 Latin American Progress Under Structural Reform TX97-6 Functional Form for United States-Mexico Trade Equations TX98-1 Border Region Commercial Electricity Demand TX98-2 Currency Devaluation and Cross-Border Competition TX98-3 Logistics Strategy and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment TX99-1 Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico TX99-2 Latin American Trade Elasticities CSWHT00-1 Tariff Elimination Staging Categories and NAFTA TX00-1 Borderplex Business Forecasting Analysis TX01-1 Menu Prices and the Peso TX01-2 Education and Border Income Performance TX02-1 Regional Econometric Assessment of Borderplex Water Consumption TX02-2 Empirical Evidence on the El Paso Property Tax Abatement Program TX03-1 Security Measures Public Policy Immigration and Trade with Mexico TX03-2 Recent Trends in Border Economic Analysis TX04-1 El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows TX04-2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy 1998-2003 TX05-1 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in El Paso TX05-2 Menu Price and Peso Interactions 1997-2002 TX06-1 Water Transfer Policies in El Paso TX06-2 Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juaacuterez
The University of Texas at El Paso Border Business Forecast Series
SR98-1 El Paso Economic Outlook 1998-2000 SR99-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 1999-2001 SR00-1 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2000-2002 SR01-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2020 SR01-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2001-2003 SR02-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2021 SR02-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2002-2004 SR03-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2022 SR03-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2003-2005 SR04-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2023 SR04-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2004-2006 SR05-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2024 SR05-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2005-2007 SR06-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2025 SR06-2 Borderplex Economic Outlook 2006-2008 SR07-1 Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026
This business report is a publication of the Border Region Modeling Project and the Department of Economics amp Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso For additional Border Region information please visit the College of Business Administration section of the wwwutepedu UTEP web site
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
N A
DD
RES
SBO
RD
ER R
EGIO
N M
OD
ELIN
G P
RO
JECT
ndash C
BA 2
36U
TEP
DEP
ARTM
ENT
OF
ECO
NO
MIC
S amp
FIN
ANCE
500
WES
T U
NIV
ERSI
TY A
VEN
UE
EL P
ASO
TEX
AS 7
9968
-054
3
Price $10 The University of Texas at El Paso
Border RegionModeling Project
Business Report SR07-1
BORDERPLEX LONG-TERMECONOMIC TRENDS TO 2026
Produced by University Communications March 2007
RET
UR
N A
DD
RES
SBO
RD
ER R
EGIO
N M
OD
ELIN
G P
RO
JECT
ndash C
BA 2
36U
TEP
DEP
ARTM
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OF
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NO
MIC
S amp
FIN
ANCE
500
WES
T U
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TY A
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EL P
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TEX
AS 7
9968
-054
3
