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Business Planning Business Planning Analysis-03 Analysis-03
Business Planning Business Planning Analysis-03 Analysis-03
Name: Lee Xiantao Branches: Business School , Binhai
UniversityTel: 15253221531
E-mail: [email protected]
PreparationPreparation
Question:Question:
(1) Are you familiar with China’s property (1) Are you familiar with China’s property market? market?
How do you think about the future of property How do you think about the future of property market?market?
(2) Is there any really asset bubble in property (2) Is there any really asset bubble in property market?market?
How do you think about “investment” and How do you think about “investment” and “speculation“speculation”” ??
Property MarketProperty Market in Chinain China
(1) Evolutionary road of property market(1) Evolutionary road of property market
(2) Marketing analysis of property market(2) Marketing analysis of property market
(3) Asset bubble in property market(3) Asset bubble in property market
(4) Funding chain of property developers(4) Funding chain of property developers
(5) Mainstay industry(5) Mainstay industry
---China’s Urbanization---China’s Urbanization VS. Pseudo-VS. Pseudo-Urbanization Urbanization
(6) Opportunity and challenge of property (6) Opportunity and challenge of property marketmarket
Learning objectivesLearning objectives
(1) To make an independent analysis for (1) To make an independent analysis for property market;property market;
(2) To write an research paper about future (2) To write an research paper about future trend of China’s property market;trend of China’s property market;
(3) To write a marketing plan for property (3) To write a marketing plan for property developersdevelopers
Evolutionary road of Evolutionary road of property marketproperty market
①① Traditional phase (1949-1978)Traditional phase (1949-1978)
☆ ☆ Government-oriented , residents can’t get property Government-oriented , residents can’t get property rights ;rights ;
☆ ☆ House as public welfare, pay a little rent ;House as public welfare, pay a little rent ;
☆ ☆ forbid trade in the marketforbid trade in the market
② Transitional phase (1979-1998)
☆ ☆ Partial property rights (from government to individual) ;Partial property rights (from government to individual) ;
☆ ☆ House as commodity, pay the price and receive some House as commodity, pay the price and receive some fundingfunding
☆ ☆ Establish relevant policy ; carry out regional Establish relevant policy ; carry out regional experiments experiments
Evolutionary road of Evolutionary road of property marketproperty market
③③ Commercial phase (1998-)Commercial phase (1998-)
☆ ☆ Privatization of property rights ;Privatization of property rights ;
☆ ☆ House as a pure commodity ; exchange House as a pure commodity ; exchange based on based on
the market price (depending on demand the market price (depending on demand and supply) ;and supply) ;
☆ ☆ Mature regulation / prosperous Mature regulation / prosperous commercializationcommercialization
☆ ☆ Multilateral gameMultilateral game
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market
Stakeholders’ game (1)Stakeholders’ game (1)GovernmentGovernment
Property developerProperty developer SpeculatorSpeculator
BankBank PurchaserPurchaserlandland fundfund
loanloaninterestinterest
househouse
revenuerevenue
househousespreadspread
registeringregistering
taxtaxloanloan
creditcredit
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market
Stakeholders’ game (2)Stakeholders’ game (2)
Government vs. PropertyGovernment vs. Property developer developer
Bank vs. Property developerBank vs. Property developer
Property developer vs. Speculator and Property developer vs. Speculator and PurchaserPurchaser
Bank vs. Speculator and Bank vs. Speculator and PurchaserPurchaser
Government vs. Speculator and Government vs. Speculator and PurchaserPurchaser
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market
Profit distribution and stakeholders’ hierarchyProfit distribution and stakeholders’ hierarchy
GovernmentGovernment
BankBank
Property developerProperty developer
SpeculatorSpeculator
PurchaserPurchaser
35%-45%35%-45%
6%-7.7%6%-7.7%
15%-25%15%-25%
5%-12%5%-12%
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(1) Why is the housing price so high?(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ ☆ the gap between demand and supply ;the gap between demand and supply ;
Urbanization / dual economy / investment and Urbanization / dual economy / investment and speculationspeculation
☆ ☆ monopoly (land / capital / trade market)monopoly (land / capital / trade market)
Only the highest bidder can get the land. Only the highest bidder can get the land.
☆ ☆ inflationinflation
Widening income disparity along with upgrading Widening income disparity along with upgrading consumptionconsumption
☆ ☆ worse business environmentworse business environment
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market
Inflation—CPI risingInflation—CPI rising
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(1) Why is the housing price so high?(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ ☆ global finance crisisglobal finance crisis
(lending cost / exchange rate / industrial structure)(lending cost / exchange rate / industrial structure)
☆ ☆ transaction cost is risingtransaction cost is rising
(property tax / stamp tax / rent-seeking / material (property tax / stamp tax / rent-seeking / material price)price)
☆ “☆ “popular ” land financepopular ” land finance
(funding and tax revenue from selling land account (funding and tax revenue from selling land account for large proportion of total revenue in some local for large proportion of total revenue in some local governments)governments)
Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(1) Why is the housing price so high?(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ ☆ hot money (speculative capital)hot money (speculative capital)
Asset bubble in property Asset bubble in property marketmarketWhere is my house?Where is my house?
Asset bubble in property Asset bubble in property marketmarketland finance (Total revenue from selling land)land finance (Total revenue from selling land)
