Industrial Production January 2001 through March 2012 Source:
Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real
output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities
industries.
Slide 11
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2011Q4 Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis 2011Q4: 3.0%
Slide 12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
January 2001 through March 2012 3/12: +120K Between March 2011 and
March 2012, the nation gained 1,899,000 jobs.
Slide 13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups March 2011 v. March 2012 All told 1,899K
Jobs Gained
Slide 14
Issues with the Federal Budget The automatic sequestration
mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 is set to begin in
January 2013. Both defense and non-defense programs will be cut by
$54.7 billion each year from 2013 through 2021 a total of
approximately $109.3 billion per year or $984 billion through 2021.
In addition, if Congress does not act by the end of the year,
nearly 50 items in the tax code will expire. Among the most
significant items are the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut.
Bush Tax Cuts: If tax cuts are not extended, approximately 60
percent of taxpayers will see an increase in their tax rate between
3 and 5 percentage points (e.g. a couple that makes $90,000/year
will pay an extra $2,700 in federal income taxes). Expiring tax
cuts also mean reductions to investment income. If the current
rates expire, the tax rate for capital gains would increase from 15
percent to 20 percent and dividends would be taxed as normal
income, instead of the current 15-percent rate. Payroll Tax Cut: If
allowed to expire, roughly 160 million workers will see a 2
percentage point tax increase in payroll taxes, or an average of
$714 or more/year for each worker. The Joint Committee on Taxation
reports that the payroll tax cut will save workers $114 billion in
2012.
Slide 15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent
Change: 1.5% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2012 v.
March 2011 Percent Change RankState%RankState%RankState% 1North
Dakota6.5%18West Virginia1.3%35Hawaii0.6%
2Oklahoma2.4%19California1.3%36New Mexico0.6%
3Utah2.4%20Indiana1.3%37Illinois0.6%
4Texas2.3%21Florida1.2%38Nevada0.4%
5Louisiana2.3%22Minnesota1.2%39Arkansas0.4%
6Arizona2.1%23Ohio1.2%40Nebraska0.4%
7Colorado2.0%24Virginia1.0%41South Dakota0.3% 8Maryland2.0%25New
Jersey1.0%42Delaware0.3% 9Kentucky1.9%26North
Carolina1.0%43Maine0.2% 10District of
Columbia1.8%27Wyoming1.0%44Missouri0.2% 11New
York1.8%28Massachusetts0.9%45Oregon0.1%
12Tennessee1.7%29Iowa0.9%46New Hampshire0.1%
13Kansas1.6%30Vermont0.9%47Alabama0.0%
14Washington1.6%31Georgia0.8%48Mississippi-0.3%
15Idaho1.5%32Pennsylvania0.8%49Montana-0.3%
16Michigan1.4%33Alaska0.7%50Rhode Island-0.5% 17South
Carolina1.3%34Connecticut0.6%51Wisconsin-0.9%
Slide 16
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate:
March 12= 8.2% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2012
RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1NORTH
DAKOTA3.018DELAWARE6.935WASHINGTON8.3 2NEBRASKA4.018WEST
VIRGINIA6.936MICHIGAN8.5 3SOUTH DAKOTA4.320ALASKA7.036NEW YORK8.5
4VERMONT4.820TEXAS7.038ARIZONA8.6
5IOWA5.222LOUISIANA7.138KENTUCKY8.6 5NEW
HAMPSHIRE5.223MAINE7.238OREGON8.6 7WYOMING5.323NEW
MEXICO7.241ILLINOIS8.8 8OKLAHOMA5.425ALABAMA7.342SOUTH CAROLINA8.9
9VIRGINIA5.626ARKANSAS7.443FLORIDA9.0
10MINNESOTA5.826MISSOURI7.443GEORGIA9.0
10UTAH5.828OHIO7.543MISSISSIPPI9.0
12KANSAS6.228PENNSYLVANIA7.543NEW JERSEY9.0
12MONTANA6.230CONNECTICUT7.747NORTH CAROLINA9.7
14HAWAII6.431COLORADO7.848DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA9.8
15MASSACHUSETTS6.532IDAHO7.949CALIFORNIA11.0
16MARYLAND6.632TENNESSEE7.950RHODE ISLAND11.1
17WISCONSIN6.834INDIANA8.251NEVADA12.0
Slide 17
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Growth = +5.1% Personal
Income Growth, U.S. States (SA) 2011 v. 2010 RankState% RankState%
RankState% 1North Dakota8.118Wisconsin5.235Rhode Island4.6
2Iowa6.819Minnesota5.135Ohio4.6 3Texas6.619Montana5.135West
Virgnia4.6 4South Dakota6.221Connecticut5.038New Mexico4.5
4Oklahoma6.221Massachusetts5.038Hawaii4.5
6Nebraska5.921Indiana5.040New York4.4
6Wyoming5.921Georgia5.041Vermont4.3
8Colorado5.721Arizona5.041Kansas4.3 9District of Columbia5.626New
Hampshire4.941Arkansas4.3 9California5.626Maryland4.941North
Carolina4.3 11Utah5.528Pennsylvania4.845New Jersey4.2
12Tennessee5.428Louisiana4.845Missouri4.2
12Idaho5.430Delaware4.745Alaska4.2
14Oregon5.330Florida4.748Nevada4.1
14Washington5.330Kentucky4.749Alabama3.8 16Illinois5.230South
Carolina4.749Mississippi3.8
16Michigan5.230Virgnia4.751Maine3.4
Slide 18
Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros (NSA) February 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAURRankMSAUR 1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC- VA-MD-WV 5.811
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 8.8 2 Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, MN- WI 6.212 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
9.0 3Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH6.612 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville,
IL-IN- WI 9.0 4San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX6.812 Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 9.0 5Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,
TX7.115 New York-Northern New Jersey- Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 9.3
6Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX7.215 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,
CA 9.3 7Baltimore-Towson, MD7.517 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,
FL 9.4 8Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ7.818Detroit-Warren-Livonia,
MI10.2 9Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA8.319 Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Santa Ana, CA 11.1 10San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA8.720
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 12.5
Slide 19
It could be worse, right??
Slide 20
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through
March 2012 Source: Freddie Mac
Slide 21
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through March 2012 Source:
Economy.com, Census Bureau
Slide 22
U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through March 2012 Source:
Economy.com
Slide 23
A penny saved is a penny earned
Slide 24
U.S. Personal Savings Rate January 2002 through February 2012
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis;Source: Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Slide 25
U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2001 through March
2012 Source: Census
Slide 26
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store March 2011 v.
March 2012 Source: Economy.com
Slide 27
National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through March 2012 (SAAR)
Source: Autodata Corp.
Slide 28
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007
through March 2012 Source: Conference Board March 2012 = 95.7 where
2004=100
Slide 29
Its difficult to forecast, particularly the future Economy hit
a soft patch; Recession no longer imminent; Black swan threats: (1)
Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; 2013 could be very different
depending on; Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could
easily falter; and Business travel should continue to improve,
but...
Slide 30
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