By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 13, 2012 The
Dog Ate My Home On Behalf of Greater Susquehanna Valley Chamber of
Commerce Slide 2 Penny wise, Euro foolish Slide 3 Historic and
Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013* Source:
International Monetary Fund *2012-2013 data are projections Slide 4
Source: Moodys Economy.com Global Recession Watch as of August 2012
Slide 5 Debt by Country 2011 Source: IMF; BIS; Bloomberg L.P. Slide
6 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth RankExchangeIndex% Change
1NYSE GroupDJI A5.5% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-1.8% 3London SEFTSE
100-5.6% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market-7.8% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX
Composite-9.2% 8Bolsa De MadridIGBM-14.6% 6Frankfurt SEDAX-14.7%
5EuronextCAC 40-17.0% 4Tokyo SENikkei 225-17.3% 11Hong Kong
ExchangesHang Seng Index-20.0% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-21.7%
10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB-25.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance Slide 7 Top
12 Stock Exchanges Year-to-date Growth through 9/7
RankExchangeIndex% Change 6Frankfurt SEDAX 22.3% 2NasdaqNASDAQ
Composite 20.4% 5EuronextCAC 40 11.4% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market
10.1% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 8.9% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index
7.4% 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB 6.8% 4Tokyo SENikkei 225 4.9% 3London
SEFTSE 100 4.0% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 2.6% 7Shanghai
SEShanghai Composite -3.3% 8Bolsa De MadridIBEX 35 -8.0% Source:
Yahoo! Finance Slide 8 All dressed up with no place to go Slide 9
Industrial Production February 2001 through July 2012 Source:
Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real
output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities
industries. Slide 10 Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2012Q2
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Slide 11 Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through
August 2012 Aug. 2012: +96K Between Aug. 2011 and Aug. 2012, the
nation gained 1,808,000 jobs. Slide 12 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August
2012 v. August 2011 All told 1,808K Jobs gained Slide 13 Issues
with the Federal Budget The automatic sequestration mandated by the
Budget Control Act of 2011 is set to begin in January 2013. Both
defense and non-defense programs will be cut by $54.7 billion each
year from 2013 through 2021 a total of approximately $109.3 billion
per year or $984 billion through 2021. In addition, if Congress
does not act by the end of the year, nearly 50 items in the tax
code will expire. Among the most significant items are the Bush tax
cuts and the payroll tax cut. Bush Tax Cuts: If tax cuts are not
extended, approximately 60 percent of taxpayers will see an
increase in their tax rate between 3 and 5 percentage points (e.g.
a couple that makes $90,000/year will pay an extra $2,700 in
federal income taxes). Expiring tax cuts also mean reductions to
investment income. If the current rates expire, the tax rate for
capital gains would increase from 15 percent to 20 percent and
dividends would be taxed as normal income, instead of at the
current 15 percent rate. Payroll Tax Cut: If allowed to expire,
roughly 160 million workers will see a 2 percentage point tax
increase in payroll taxes, or an average of $714 or more/year for
each worker. The Joint Committee on Taxation reports that the
payroll tax cut will save workers $114 billion in 2012. Slide 14
Pennsylvania Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) July
2011 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics PA Total: +20K; +0.4% US Total: +1,797K; +1.4% Slide 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington Nonfarm Employment by Industry
Sector Groups (NSA) July 2011 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Philly MSA Total: +13.2K; +0.5% PA Total
(SA): +20K; +0.4% US Total (SA): +1,797K; + 1.4% Slide 16
Harrisburg-Carlisle Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups
(NSA) July 2011 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics Harrisburg MSA Total: -2.2K; -0.7% PA Total (SA):
+20K; +0.4% US Total (SA): +1,797K; + 1.4% Slide 17
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector
Groups (NSA) July 2011 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics Scranton-Wilkes-Barre Total: +2.3K; +0.9% PA
Total (SA): +20K; +0.4% US Total (SA): +1,797K; + 1.4% Slide 18
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent
Change: 1.4% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July
2011 Percent Change RankState%RankState%RankState% 1North
Dakota6.818District of Columbia1.435South Carolina0.6
2California2.618Kansas1.435South Dakota0.6
3Oklahoma2.420Georgia1.337Illinois0.5
4Arizona2.320Idaho1.338Connecticut0.4
5Indiana2.220Massachusetts1.338Pennsylvania0.4 6Kentucky2.120New
York1.340Alabama0.3 6Louisiana2.124Montana1.240Maine0.3
6Minnesota2.124Tennessee1.242West Virginia0.1
6Texas2.126Oregon1.143Delaware0.0 6Utah2.127Florida1.044New
Mexico-0.3 11Ohio2.027Hawaii1.044Wyoming-0.3 11Vermont2.027New
Jersey1.046Mississippi-0.4 13Washington1.930Maryland0.946New
Hampshire-0.4 14Nebraska1.830Nevada0.948Alaska-0.5
14Virginia1.830North Carolina0.948Missouri-0.5
16Colorado1.733Arkansas0.850Wisconsin-0.8
17Michigan1.533Iowa0.851Rhode Island-1.6 Slide 19 Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 8.3% Unemployment Rates,
U.S. States (SA) July 2012 RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate
1 North Dakota3.018Maryland7.035Tennessee8.4 2
Nebraska4.019Missouri7.236Connecticut8.5 3 South
Dakota4.419Ohio7.236Washington8.5 4
Oklahoma4.919Texas7.238Oregon8.7 5
Vermont5.022Arkansas7.339Florida8.8 6
Iowa5.322Wisconsin7.340District of Columbia8.9 7 New
Hampshire5.424West Virginia7.440Illinois8.9 8
Wyoming5.625Idaho7.542Michigan9.0 9
Minnesota5.826Louisiana7.643Mississippi9.1 10
Virginia5.926Maine7.643New York9.1 11
Utah6.028Alaska7.745Georgia9.3 12
Massachusetts6.129Pennsylvania7.946North Carolina9.6 13
Kansas6.330Indiana8.246South Carolina9.6 14
Hawaii6.431Alabama8.348New Jersey9.8 14
Montana6.431Arizona8.349California10.7 16 New
Mexico6.631Colorado8.350Rhode Island10.8 17
Delaware6.831Kentucky8.351Nevada12.0 Slide 20 Unemployment Rates,
Selected Large Metros (NSA) July 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
DC-VA-MD- WV 5.611Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI9.1
2Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI5.912
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD 9.2
3Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH6.112San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,
CA9.2 4San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX7.314Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Marietta, GA9.3 5Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX7.414
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 9.3 6Houston-Sugar
Land-Baytown, TX7.516Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL9.4
6Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ7.517 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island, NY-NJ-PA 9.5 8Baltimore-Towson, MD7.718Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Santa Ana, CA10.9 9Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,
WA8.319Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI11.9 10San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA8.520Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario,
CA12.7 Slide 21 Unemployment Rates, Pennsylvania MSAs (NSA) July
2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAURRankMSAUR 1 State
College, PA6.6 9 Reading, PA8.3 2 Lebanon, PA6.7 10 Williamsport,
PA8.5 3 Lancaster, PA6.9 11 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA8.7 4
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA7.6 12 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ9 4
Pittsburgh, PA7.6 13 Philadelphia-Camden- Wilmington,
PA-NJ-DE-MD9.2 6 Altoona, PA7.7 14 New York-Northern New Jersey-
Long Island, NY-NJ-PA9.5 7 Erie, PA7.8 14 Johnstown, PA9.5 8
York-Hanover, PA8.3 16 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA9.8 Slide 22
Sunbury Micropolitan Area Labor Force January 2001 through July
2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Slide 23 Sunbury
Micropolitan Area Unemployment Rates January 2001 through July 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Slide 24 Sunbury Micropolitan
Area Employment Growth January 2001 through July 2012 Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Slide 25 It could be worse, right??
Slide 26 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995
through September 2012* Source: Freddie Mac *Average rate through
9/6. Slide 27 U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through July 2012
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau Slide 28 U.S. Housing Starts
February 1999 through July 2012 Source: Census Bureau Slide 29 A
penny saved is a penny earned Slide 30 Conference Board Consumer
Confidence 2005 August 2012 Source: Conference Board Slide 31 U.S.
Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through July 2012
Source: Census Bureau Slide 32 U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by
Type of Store August 2011 v. August 2012 Source: Economy.com Slide
33 National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through August 2012 (SAAR)
Source: Autodata Corp. Slide 34 U.S. Personal Savings Rate January
2002 through July 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Slide 35
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007
through July 2012 Source: Conference Board Slide 36 Its difficult
to forecast, particularly the future Economy hit a soft patch;
Recession not imminent; Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2)
Israel/Iran (3) Europe; 2013 could be very different depending on;
Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter;
and Geographic patterns of economic growth in Pennsylvania have
shifted. Slide 37 Thank You You can always reach me at
[email protected] [email protected] Please look for updates
of information at www.sagepolicy.com. www.sagepolicy.com Also, if
you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)
Please contact us when you require economic research & policy
analysis.
