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CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND
PUBLIC HEALTH
NRELJanuary 13, 2005
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.
http://www/med.harvard.edu/chge
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Algal Blooms Algal Blooms PeruPeru19911991
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
United Nations United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Climate Change Third Assessment Report 2001Third Assessment Report 2001
1. Climate is changing2. Human activities are contributing3. Biological systems are being
affected on all continents4. Weather is becoming more
extreme.
All weather = All weather = f f (CC + (CC + NV)NV)
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Sea Surface Temperatures: Sept. 2004Sea Surface Temperatures: Sept. 2004
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Since 2001 We Have LearnedSince 2001 We Have Learned
1. CO2 rise is accelerating: 3ppm/yr, up from 1.82. Tropical oceans are warmer & saltier
surface waters near the poles cooler & fresher
*In August water entering the Arctic Ocean
was 1o F warmer than a year ago! 3. Polar and mountain glacial ice is diminishing
at surprising rates4. Winds around both poles are
becoming more forceful.
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
379 379 ppmppm
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
The Changing Shape of the The Changing Shape of the CurveCurveOO
UU
TT
LL
II
EE
RR
SS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Deep Ocean Deep Ocean Warming Warming
Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287: 2225Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287: 2225
OceansOceans 18.2 x 1018.2 x 102222 J JAtmosphereAtmosphere 6.6 x 10 6.6 x 102121 J J
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Precipitation Precipitation ExtremesExtremes
Past century Average annual precipitation 7%
“Heavy rain events" (>2”/day) 14%
“Very heavy rain events" (>4”/day) 20%
Western drought – worst in 500 years - Groisman et al. 2004- Groisman et al. 2004
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Greenland Ice SheetGreenland Ice Sheet
Geological Survey of Greenland and Denmark
772,000 square miles of ice 1.9 miles thick
Melting Melting 1 meter/yr 20001 meter/yr 2000
10 meters/yr 200410 meters/yr 2004
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Sources: OFDA / Center for Research in the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) "Natural.xls" Intl database of Disasters (http://www.cred.be/emdat/intro.html) and U.S. Census Bureau's International Database (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbagg.html). From analysis completed by Padco's Climate Change Solutions Group for USAID's Global Climate Change Team. "Population Impacted" includes those persons that have either been killed, injured, left homeless, or otherwise adversely affected.
The Frequency of Weather-Related Disasters Has Risen in Less-Developed Countries: 1950-2001
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Number of Events
Wind storm 59 121 121 207 300
Wild fire 0 4 11 25 54
Wave/surge 2 5 2 3 12
Slide 11 15 34 63 114
Insect infestation 0 1 6 43 13
Flood 50 110 170 276 489
Famine 0 2 4 11 45
Extreme temp 4 10 9 19 70
Epidemic 0 31 44 86 317
Drought 0 52 120 177 195
1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-2001
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Assessing Climate Assessing Climate Stability Stability
Rates of ChangeRates of Change
VariabilityVariability
GradientsGradients
Number of Components Number of Components ChangingChanging
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Agent
Host Environment
EpidemiologicalEpidemiologicalFrameworkFramework
Disease
Social
Ecological Global
Ecological-epidemiologicalEcological-epidemiologicalFrameworkFramework
Epidemics
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
MODEL MODEL PROJECTIONS:HEATWAVESPROJECTIONS:HEATWAVES
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL Source: NASASource: NASA2003 Summer Temperatures 10oC (18oF) >30year average
SUMMER 2003 SUMMER 2003 HEATWAVEHEATWAVE
FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL
21-35, 000 deaths
WILDFIRESWILDFIRES CROP CROP FAILURESFAILURES SURPRISESSURPRISES
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
INDIAJune 2003 T 122•F >1400 deaths
July Floods
Japanese B encephalitis
Andhra Pradesh
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
ASTHMA
2-3x Since 1980s
AIR POLLUTION AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE AND CLIMATE
CHANGECHANGEIndoor pollutants
Socio/economic/emotional factors
Ground-level Ozone
&
Pollen & CO2
Diesel Particles
mold & pollen
Droughts & Fires
Floods & Fungi
HeatwavesHeatwaves
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
RAGWEED POLLEN RAGWEED POLLEN PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION
and COand CO22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CO2 350ppm
CO2 700ppm
Height
Seed Mass
Pollen
Biomass
Wayne et al., 2002: Annals of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology 8:279
p = 0.005
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
COCO22 DomeDome
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Emerging Infectious Emerging Infectious DiseasesDiseases
30 “NEW” TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976
HIV/AIDS Legionnaires’
E. coli O157:H7 MDRTB & others
SARS nvCJD
HPS Vibrio cholerae O139
Nipah virus EbolaArenaviruses Lyme disease
RESURGENT & REDISTRIBUTING
Malaria, DF, WNV, Leptospirosis,
Cholera, Avian Flu
VECTORSVECTORSMosquitoesMosquitoes
TicksTicksRodentsRodents
BatsBatsTsetse FliesTsetse Flies
FleasFleasLiceLice
SnailsSnailsAlgaeAlgae
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
INFECTIOUS INFECTIOUS DISEASEDISEASE
A DRIVING FORCE IN A DRIVING FORCE IN HISTORYHISTORY
The Bad News
PLAGUE PLAGUE
541 AD541 AD
1346 AD1346 AD
The “Good” News
Cholera, TB, SmallpoxCholera, TB, Smallpox
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
MONTANE REGIONSMONTANE REGIONS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WNVWNVHUMAN CASES & DEATHSHUMAN CASES & DEATHS
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
25 Nov
62 66 21
4161
284
93899389
246246
Jeff ShamanJeff Shaman
Paul EpsteinPaul Epstein
DROUGHTDROUGHT
1999, 2002, 20031999, 2002, 2003
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WNV: A DISEASE OF WILDLIFEWNV: A DISEASE OF WILDLIFE 230 SPECIES 44 STATES, DC, 5 CANADIAN PROVINCES
• 138 Bird spp., RAPTORSRAPTORS
- 37 spp. of mosquitoes
• HORSES
• ZOO animals
• REPTILES
AVIAN FLYWAYSAVIAN FLYWAYS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
INFECTIOUS DISEASES AS FORCES OF GLOBAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES AS FORCES OF GLOBAL CHANGECHANGE
RaptorsRaptors RodentsRodents
Lyme disease Lyme disease HantavirusesHantaviruses
Arenaviruses Arenaviruses Leptospirosis Leptospirosis
ToxoplasmosisToxoplasmosis
PlaguePlague
Ecological RipplesEcological Ripples
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WARM WEST COLD EAST
PACIFIC ANOMALIESPACIFIC ANOMALIES
Hoerling and Kumar: Hoerling and Kumar: The perfect ocean for The perfect ocean for drought.drought. Science Science 2003; 299: 691 2003; 299: 691
AMERICAS
AFRICA
AUS
ASIA
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISEASE CLUSTERSDISEASE CLUSTERS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
HURRICANE MITCHHURRICANE MITCHHURRICANE MITCH HURRICANE MITCH 19981998
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
HURRICANE HURRICANE MITCHMITCH
IMPACTS ON HEALTHAND DEVELOPMENT
-- Malaria (>30,000 cases) -- Dengue fever (>1,000) -- Cholera (>30,000) -- Leptospirosis
Juan Almendares
DISEASE CLUSTERDISEASE CLUSTER
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS HAZARDS
and TRAUMA and TRAUMA
Fog, Ice Storms & Road TravelFog, Ice Storms & Road Travel
Floods & MudslidesFloods & Mudslides
Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & AvalanchesIce Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches
Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&QInfrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q
HEALTH & ECONOMIC IMPACTSHEALTH & ECONOMIC IMPACTS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Range Expansion of Soybean RustRange Expansion of Soybean Rust
North AmericaNorth AmericaCrop PestsCrop Pests
Generations/YearGenerations/Year
XB Yang, C Rosenzweig, P AndersonXB Yang, C Rosenzweig, P Anderson
R Quiroz, G Baigorria, A IglesiasR Quiroz, G Baigorria, A Iglesias
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Drought,Drought,
Bark BeetlesBark Beetles
&&
FiresFires
Respiratory Respiratory diseasedisease
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Costs of Emerging Infectious DiseasesCosts of Emerging Infectious Diseases
BIO ECONOMIC RESEARCH ASSSOCIATION, Cambridge, MA
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Costs of Extreme Weather Costs of Extreme Weather EventsEvents
UNEPUNEP
$150B/y w/in this decade$150B/y w/in this decade
Insurance & Reinsurance, Corporations,Insurance & Reinsurance, Corporations,FEMA, OFDA, NGOs, Nation States, UN Agencies FEMA, OFDA, NGOs, Nation States, UN Agencies
Av. $4 B/yAv. $4 B/y
Av. $40 B/yAv. $40 B/y
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Exploration
Extraction
Transport
Refining
Transport
Air Pollution
Acid Rain
Climate Change
EutrophicationNOxs
Warming OceansCoral ReefsSLREWEsMelting Polar Ice
Harm
Marine
Mammals
Shore birds
Fisheries
Consumers
Livelihoods
OIL OIL LIFE CYCLE LIFE CYCLE COSTSCOSTS
Spills
&
Leaks MERCURY
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES: CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES:
HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONSHEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Swiss Re, UNDP, JMFSwiss Re, UNDP, JMF
A.A. Community-building: Scientists, UN agencies, Community-building: Scientists, UN agencies, NGOs, CorporationsNGOs, Corporations
B.B. Knowledge-building: Economic evaluation Knowledge-building: Economic evaluation
C.C. Awareness-building: RISKS and OPPORTUNIIESAwareness-building: RISKS and OPPORTUNIIES
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Harmonizing Adaptation with Harmonizing Adaptation with MitigationMitigation
Distributed GenerationDistributed Generation
WaterWater SchoolsSchools
PurificationPurification ClinicsClinics
PumpingPumping HomesHomes
IrrigationIrrigation ComputersComputers
DesalinizationDesalinization CookingCooking
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
ENABLING FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE ENABLING FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
THE ENGINE OF THE ENGINE OF
GROWTHGROWTHfor thefor the
21st CENTURY21st CENTURY
RegulatoryRegulatory
InstitutionalInstitutional
EE, RE and DGEE, RE and DG “ “Green Buildings” & Smart Green Buildings” & Smart GrowthGrowth Rationalized Transport & TransitRationalized Transport & Transit Retrofitting InfrastructureRetrofitting Infrastructure Ecological ReconstructionEcological Reconstruction
Funds, Funds, subsidies, subsidies,
tax tax incentivesincentives