C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Terrorism in the 21 st Century: An Introduction

COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point

James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies

Terrorism in the 21st Century:

An Introduction



Notes: - The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense.

DoD Disclaimer



Understanding the Strategy

• NATO definition of terrorism:The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence

against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious or ideological objectives

• Sun Tzu– Know yourself

– Know your allies

– Know your enemy



Sun Tzu: Know Your Enemy

• What motivates terrorists?• How does someone become a suicide bomber?• What do these people want? • What are they capable of?• How do they view this struggle?

“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA Bomber



Key Terms

• Vision• Power• Belief• Strategy• Tactic• Duty• Shame• Freedom fighter• Self-sacrifice

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Key Terms

• Vision – “Shape the future”• Power to achieve the vision• Belief in a higher cause• Strategy – to compel, coerce, etc.• Tactic – bombing, assassination, etc.• Duty to the cause, to family, to God• Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice• Freedom fighter – must kill to secure freedom (?)• Self-sacrifice – to be killed in the service of a higher cause

is “heroic”

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Primary Types

• Left-wing• Right-wing• Ethno-nationalist (separatist)• Religious• State• State-Sponsored

Defining Terrorism



Left-wing Terrorists

• Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts• Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian anti-

materialist agendas• Typically target elites that symbolize authority• Examples:

– Anarchists, Earth First, Animal Liberation Front



Right-wing Terrorists

• Often target race and ethnicity• Examples:

– Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation

Ethno-nationalist/Separatists

• Usually have clear territorial objectives– Liberation/separation– Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines.

• Examples: – Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK



Religious terrorists

• Belief in a struggle of good vs evil– Acting along desires of a diety – target is thus not

necessarily human– Feel unconstrained by law – higher calling– Complete alienation from existing socio/political order– Support may be diffuse

• Examples: – al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, Jemaah Islamiyah,

Christian Militia, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Amal, Lehi, Irgun



State Terrorism

• Governments can engage in acts of terrorism

• Examples:– Iraq, Saddam Hussein deployed chemical

weapons in Kurdish villages, killing thousands– Intent was to frighten other villages into

stopping their political revolt– It worked



State-Sponsored Terrorism

• Governments can also support terrorist groups that do their bidding

• Examples:– Iran, which supports Hizballah– Before 9/11, Hizballah had killed more

Americans than any other terror group– Embassy bombings, kidnappings, targeted

assassinations, suicide attack on Marine barracks at Beirut airport



Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983

• 241 Dead• 105 Injured



A Brief History of Modern Terrorism• Roughly 130-year history• 4 Waves, each roughly 40-45 years

– Anarchist Wave– Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave– New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment– Religious Inspiration Wave

• Issue to consider for each wave:– Doctrines of terror– Technology (especially for communication/propoganda)– Avenues of funding and support



Terrorism as Strategy• Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives

• Strategic goals include:– Political change (e.g., overthrow govt., drive out occupiers, etc.)– Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban)– Economic change (e.g., stop resource export)– Religious change (e.g., fundamentalism)

• Overall goal: create a “better” world



Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism

• Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength

• Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government

• Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting

• Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.

• Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government.



New York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 Injured

Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building,

19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 Injured



Matsumoto, JapanMarch, 19947 Dead, 34 Injured

Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.

Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.

Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache.

Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.

Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 Injured

Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995



Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996

• 19 Dead

• 240 Injured



American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injured



1999 LAX Attack Plan



The Strategy of Terrorism

• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as:

– pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK– open markets & cafes in Israel– international airport, Sri Lanka– bus in Manila, the Philippines– shopping mall in southern Philippines– nightclub in Bali, Indonesia– banks in Istanbul, Turkey– hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia– nightclub in Berlin, Germany

– and, of course . . .



New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001

2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured



Modern Trends in Global Terrorism

• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)• Increasing use of suicide bombers

(the ultimate smart bomb)



Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002

12 Dead50 Injured

14 Dead, including11 French engineers

Bus attackAttack on U.S. Consulate



Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002 202 Dead

350 Injured

Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts



Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003

44 Dead107 Injured



Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003

12 Dead60 Injured

J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta



Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004

4 Dead148 Injured

3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex

Attack on Security Services Headquarters

17 Dead122 Injured



Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003

27 Dead400 Injured

Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters



Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004

191 Dead1,035 Injured



Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004

9 Dead173 Injured

Australian Embassy was primary target



London, UKJuly 7, 2005

54 Dead716 Injured



Strategy and Recruitment• Terrorism is an individual’s strategic choice most

often driven by a combination of:– Intense grievances– Sense of crisis– Address a power imbalance - empower the

disenfranchised

• The ties that bind: training camps, extended family, social networks; trusted networks = key

• Combination of ideology and psychology

• No constraints re: geography, organizational affiliation, etc.



Modern Terrorism and Recruitment

• Overall goal: create a “better” world– Powerful message for recruitment . . .

– Video 1– Video 2– Video 3– Video 4– Video 5

Jihad



Strategy and Training



Strategy and Training

• Afghanistan• Algeria• Bosnia• Chechnya• Colombia• Egypt• Indonesia• Japan• Kashmir• Lebanon• Libya

Establish training camps – developing the will to kill and the skill to kill

• Operational space: Geographic isolation • Teachers: Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g., military combat experience• Committed learners• Time, money, and basic necessities

• Northern Ireland

• Peru• The Philippines• Somalia• Spain• Sri Lanka• Sudan• Syria• Turkey• United States• Uzbekistan



Strategy and Training• Psychological dimensions

• Moral disengagement– Displacement of responsibility– Disregard for/distortion of consequences– Dehumanization– Moral justification

• Group power over behavior, personal decisions

• Preparation for martyrdom



Suicide Terrorism as Logical StrategySuicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy



To be distinguished from:• High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent• Fooled couriers • Suicide – without homicide – for a political cause

Definition of Suicide Terrorism

Intentionally killing oneself for the purpose of killing others, in the service

of a political or ideological goal



Suicide Terrorism: Who?Suicide Terrorism: Who?

Perception: • Generalized profile of suicide

terrorists, including:

– Young– Single– Male– Uneducated– Religious fanatics

Reality• The “profile” is wrong• Suicide terrorists are:

– Preteen - mid-sixties

– Both single and married with families

– Both male and female

– Both educated and uneducated

– Not motivated by religious fanaticism

– World’s leader in suicide terror are Hindu; Tamil Tigers who are conducting insurgency against Sri Lanka



Trends: Most deadly form of terrorism (so far)

• Israel: 0.5% of attacks, 56% of fatalities.

• U.S.: 9/11 – 10 times more deadly than any previous terrorist attack in history.– Hizballah, Lebanon

• 1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut• 1983 – attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut• 1983 – attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks at the

Beirut airport (241 killed)

• Also, suicide attacks typically get more media coverage; more “strategic communications” effect



- Lebanon - Kuwait - Sri Lanka

Trends: 1980s



- Israel - India - Pakistan - Yemen - Algeria - Chechnya - Kenya - Tanzania - Panama - Argentina - Croatia - Australia - Turkey - Russia - Morocco - Indonesia - Saudi Arabia - Afghanistan - Indonesia - Spain - U.K. - U.S.

Trends: 1990-2005



81 9199

163

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

Suicide Attacks Worldwide : 2001 -- 2005

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005



Suicide Terrorism: Why?Suicide Terrorism: Why?

Because it works . . . Because it works . . .



Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983

• 241 Dead• 105 Injured

“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”

-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life

“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”

-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life



Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective?• Suicide attacks work because they have a different

structure• With suicide terrorism model the weakerweaker acts as coerceracts as coercer

and the stronger actor is the target• Key difference

– Target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage

Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03



Questions?





Counterterrorism Strategy Post-9/11



2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach

Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it?

Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.

• Military• Intelligence• Diplomacy• Legal• Information• Financial• Economic

Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it?

Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.

• Military• Intelligence• Diplomacy• Legal• Information• Financial• Economic

• Case studies of groups and

events help us learn about

each of these dimensions

• Case studies of groups and

events help us learn about

each of these dimensions



Intelligence: Learn from our own mistakes• We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were

beyond the capabilities of terrorists• Overestimated the significance of past successes & the

terrorists’ own incompetence• Attention was focused exclusively on opposite ends of

the terrorist technological spectrum• Believed terrorists were still

interested in publicity and not killing



Elements of the National CT Strategy

4 D’s:• Defeat terrorist organizations of a

global reach• Deny terrorists the sponsorship,

support, and sanctuary they need to survive

• Diminish the underlying conditions that promote the despair and destructive visions of political change that lead people to embrace terrorism

• Defend against terrorist attacks on the U.S., our citizens and our interests around the world



Coordination Levels

ALLIESALLIES Coalition

Interagency

Joint

ArmyCombined

Arms

Army Navy Air Force Marines

OTHERAGENCIES

DOD DOS CIA



National Counterterrorism Center

• NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from: • Federal Bureau of Investigation

• Department of Defense• Central Intelligence Agency• Department of Homeland Security• Department of State • Others – DOE, NRC, HHS, USDA, USCHP

• Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent entities

• In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities



In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities

Terrorism Information Access and Integration



• Beyond implementing Center responsibilities, the greater goal is facilitating a counterterrorism “system” as part of a greater U.S. Government (USG) system-of-systems

• All USG elements need not be centralized; however, a distributed but integrated framework must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated• Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements must be as unambiguous and straightforward as possible; intentional rather than haphazard redundancy

Toward a Counterterrorism “System”



Questions?

Documents

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Terrorism in the 21 st Century: An Introduction