Caesar 26 - The Succession ot Khruschev

8/4/2019 Caesar 26 - The Succession ot Khruschev

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APPROVED FOR RELEASEDATE: JUN 2007 , - A March 1960CI No. 1102j60SOVIET STAFF STUDY

THE SUCCESSION TO KHRUSHCHW( R e f e r e n c e T i t l e s : CAESAR XII-60)

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Off c e of Current I n t e l1 genceCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY


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The Succession to Khrushchev

This is a working paper. It discusses brieflythe prospects-of various of Khrushchev's lieutenants

- for succeeding him. It emphasizes contingencies in. the succession, and argues that much additional in-formation must come to hand before any one of Khru-shchev's lieutenants can be put forward with confi-dence as his likely successor.The Sino-Soviet Studies Group would welcome com-ment, addressed to Setrag Mardirosian, who wrote thepaper, or to W,P. Sou ard. the acting coordinator ofthe SSSG. Both are in nd at-


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THE SUCCESSION TO KHRUSHCHEV

T h e i s s u e of t h e s u c c e s si o n t o Khrushehev has begun t oc a s t i t s shadow o ve r t h e i n t e r n a l S o v ie t p o l i t i c a l s c e ne .I m p o r t an t p e r s o n n e l ch an g es h av e t ak en place d u r i n g a t h e p a s ty ea r w h ich , w h i l e not a f f e c t i n g Khrushchev , 's dominan t pos i -t i o n , h av e sh a ke n t h e u pp e r r a n k s of t h e S o v i e t h i e r a r c h yfrom w h i c h h i s e v e n t u a l s u cc e s so r w i l l emerge. As Khrushcheva g e s , t h e c o m p e t i t i on among h i s l i e u t e n a n t s w i l l almost cer-t a i n l y i n t e n s i f y .i n t h e a n t i c i p a t e d c o m pe t it i on a nd t o assess t h e i r v a r i o u s .p r o s p e c t s as h e i r s t o Khrushchev.K h ru s hch ev' s P o l i t i c a l L eg acy

T h i s p a pe r s e e k s t o i d e n t i f y t h e p r i n c i p a l s

Although Khrushchev's hold on supreme power in t h e USSRh a s be en r e l a t i v e l y b r i e f , h e h a s t r an s fo r me d t h e S o v i e t po-l i t i c a l env i ronment . H i m s e l f a p ro du ct o f t h e S t a l i n e r a , heh as p l ay ed t h e p r i n c i p a l r o l e i n r e f as h io n in g t h e S t a l i n i s tp o l i t i c a l h e r i t a g e and d i s e nt a n gl i n g i t s a s s e t s from i t sl i a b i l i t i e s . H e h a s i n t r o d u ced a p r ag m at i c, i n n o v a t i n g s p i r i tinto S o v i e t s o c i e t y a nd h a s g i v e n new d i r e c t i o n a nd i mp e tu st o S o v ie t p o l i c i e s a t home and abroad.

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S i n c e t h e defeat of t h e " a n t i p a r t y " g r o u p in June 1957,Khrushchev has occupied a p o s i t i o n of su pr em e a u t h o r i t y i nt h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s h i p . H e is head of t h e p a r t y a nd g o ve rn -ment ; he has e l i m i n a t e d h i s main r i v a l s from t h e s e a t of pow-e r ; and h e h a s p lace d h i s p r o t eg 6 s i n command of t h e l e a d in go r g a n s of a ut ho r i ty . Alone among t h e members of t h e h i e ra r c hy ,Khrushchev h a s r e c e i v e d w i d e acclaim f o r a m u l t i t u d e of ac-complishments and h a s b e n e f i t e d f rom a n a p p a r e n t l y g e n u i nep o p u l a r i t y . H e h a s t h u s a t t a i n e d h e i g ht s of power and pres-t i g e w e l l beyond t h e r e a c h of a ny p o l i t i c a l c o m p et i t o r s , a ndthe r e i s e v e r y r e a s o n t o e x pe c t t h a t h e w i l l r e t a i n t h i s po-s i t i o n u n t i l d ea t h o r i n c a p a c i t a t i n g i l l n e s s removes him fromt h e s c e n e .

Khrushchev i s not , however , a s i n g u l a r , i s o l a t e d p o l i t -i c a l phenomenon l i k e S t a l i n . H e i s f i r s t a n d fo re mo st t h eleader and spokesman of t h e i n t e r e s t s and o ut lo o k of t h e p a r -t y m a ch in e, t h e h a r d core of p o l i t i c a l ca ree r i s t s who haves o u g h t t o p e r p e t u a t e t h e i r r u l e a nd t h e i r p h i lo s op h y o v er


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. .. ..t h e e n t i r e c o u nt r y. The c o r n e r s t o n e of K h r u s h c h e v ' s p o l i c i e sh a s b een t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of par ty supremacy , in f a c t a s 'w e l l as i n t h eo r y , o v e r a l l areas of S o vi et n a t i on a l l i f e .By b a s i n g h i s r eg im e s q u a r e l y o n t h e p a r t y , K hru sh ch ev h a sp ro mo te d n o t o n l y h i s own i n t e r e s t s b u t t h o se of t h e p a r t yas w e l l .of command ha s re s t o r e d a l a r g e m e a su r e of s t a b i l i t y i n So-v i e t p o l i t i c a l l i f e t h a t was l a c k i n g when S t a l i n d i e d . A tt h a t t i m e t h e p a r t y was a t t h e lowest p o i n t i n i t s v i t a l i t yand p r es t i ge , and supreme power was s h a r e d p r e c a r i o u s l y byr e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of d i f f e r e n t p o w e r e l i t e s . The p ar ty machinenow c o m p l e t el y d om i na te s t h e s t r u c t u r e of p ow er, r e i g n i n gsup re me o v e r t h e o t h e r f u n c t i o n a l e l i t e s - - t h e e co nom ic ad -m i n i s t r a t o r s , t h e armed forces , and t h e s ec r e t police--andp a r t y c a r e e r i s t s o p e r a t e as t h e p r i n c i p a l i n t e g r a t i n g andc e n t r a l i z i n g e l em en ts i n t h e s t a t e . N o t s i n c e t h e e a r l ydays of S t a l i n ' s r u l e h a s t h e p a r t y e n j o y e d su c h a p o s i t i o nof a u t h o r i t y . By e l i m i n a t i n g p l u r a l i s m i n t h e power struc-tu re , Khrushchev has bequeathed to h i s p a r t y c o h o r t s a f i r mh ol d ov er n a t i o n a l l i f e a nd h a s b u i l t s a f e g ua r ds a g a i n s t ' af r a g m e nt a t i on o f a u t h o r i t y o u t s i d e t h e p a r ty a f t e r h i s d e at h .

The r e - es t ab l i shmen t of p a r t y c o n t r o l o v er t h e c h a in

The pr imacy of t h e pa r t y has meant t h a t t h e men on whomKhrushchev has r e l i ed t o govern th e n a t io n have been d rawnp r i m a r i l y f r o m t h e p a r t y m ac hi ne . P a r t y c a r e e r i s t s , l e d b yt h e en t i r e member sh ip of t h e s e c r e t a r i a t , t h e e x e c u t i v e a g e n c yof t h e p a r t y m ach in e, e n j o y - a s t r o n g m a j o r i t y i n t h e p r es i di u m ,t h e s u m m i t of t h e power s t r uc tu re . Whatever t h e i r i n d i v i d u a ld i f f e r e n c e s , t h e members of t h i s p r i v i l e g e d g ro u p h av e a no v e r r i d i n g i n t e r e s t i n m a i nt ai ni ng a common f r o n t a za in s t t h eo t he r p r o f es s i on a l g roups which have been demoted t o a lowero r d e r of i n f lu e n c e and s t a t u s i n t h e c h a i n of command.

K hr ushc he v h a s i n i t i a t e d a se r i e s of r e fo rms des igned t oi n f u s e t h e p a r t y wi t h new v i t a l i t y f o r t he pe r fo rmance of i t sen la rg ed command fu nc ti on s. Prominent among th e se ha s beena r e v i v a l of p a r t y t r a d i t i o n s which S t a l i n had v i o l a t e d d ur -i n g t h e l a t e r y e a r s of h i s r e i g n : r e g u l a r c o nv o ca ti on ofp a r t y m e e ti n gs a t t h e c e n t r a l committee l e v e l a n d below, i n -s i s t e n c e on s t r i c t o b se r v a n ce o f p a r t y r e g u l a t i o n s , . and e m -phasis on w i d e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n of pa r t y members i n p a r ty ands t a t e a c t i v i t i e s . However , th es e measures have not le d t oany d i l u t i o n of t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of power i n t h e p a r t y h i g hcommand.- 2 -


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D e s p i t e t h e a l l e g e d a d h e re n c e t o " inner -par ty democracy"i n t h e p o s t - % t a l i n p er i od , the p a r t y h a s re ma in ed o r g a n i z e da l o n g s t r i c t h i e r a r c h i c a l l i n e s d es ig n ed t o s a f e g u ar d t h esupremacy of t h e s e l f - p e r p e t u a t i n g l e a d e r s h i p ov e r t h e ra nk -and- f ' i le membership. The v a s t powers o f p a t ro n a g e an d d i s - .c i p l i n e a v a i l a b le t o t h e s e c r e t a r i a l h i e r a r c h y c e n t e r e d i nMoscow h av e e n su re d t h e c o n t i n u e d su b o r d i n a t i o n of t h e lowerpar ty organs- - f rom t h e c e n t r a l committee on down--to t h e par-t y l e a d e r s h i p .years has been convoked more f r e q u e n t l y t ha n i n t h e p a s t , i th a s f u n c t i o n e d p r i m a r i l y as a soun ding board and rub ber stampf o r . d e c i s i o n s r ea ch ed e a r l i e r i n t h e r e s t r i c t e d c i r c l e o ft o p p a r t y l eaders . Membership on t h e committee i s a n i n d i -c a t i o n of p r e s t i g e , n o t power.

K h ru sh ch ev 's r e l i a n c e o n t h e p a r t y as t h e main i n s t r u -ment of a u t h or i t y i n t h e s t a t e h a s p ro du ce d s t r i k i n g c h an g esi n t h e p o l i t i c a l s t y l e of h i s re gi me . U nl ik e S t a l i n , whosed i c t a t o r s h i p was b a se d p r i m a r i l y o n f e a r , K hru sh ch ev h a sr e l i e d l a r g e l y on pe r su a s io n an d pressure . As l e a d e r of t h ep a r t y a nd n a t i o n , h e h a s a t t e m p te d t o c r e a te a . r e g i m e morea c c e p t a b l e t o t h e p a r t y a t e v e r y l e v e l a n d, a t t h e - s a m e t i m e ,more r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e a s p i r a t i o n s of t h e p o p u l a t i o n a t l a r g e .I n l i n e w i t h t h e e f f o r t t o p o pu l a ri z e t h e d i c t a t o r s h i p , t h er eg im e h a s r e a d i l y d i s c a r d e d outmod ed S t a l i n i s t p a t t e r n s o fc o n t r o l a nd g r a d u a l l y re p l a c e d them w i t h m o r e f l e x i b l e t e c h -n i q u e s . I n s t e a d of r e p r e s s i n g p o p ul a r p r e s s u r e s , t h e r e gi m ehas so u g h t t o h a r n e s s them t o i t s own purposes. In s h o r t ,p o l i t i c a l man ipula t ion and demagogic appe al , inv olv ingpromises of s e c u r i t y and welfare i n e xc ha ng e for p a r t y su-premacy, have fo rmed t he v i t a l i n g r ed ie n t s o f Khrushchev' ss t y l e of r u l e .

Even t ho ug h t h e c e n t r a l committee i n r e ce n t

The c ha n ge s i n S o v i e t p o l i t i c a l l i f e wrought by Khru-sh c h e v h a v e c r e a t e d a more s t a b l e s e t t i n g f o r t h e s u c ce s si ont h an t h a t e x i s t i n g a t S t a l i n ' s d e a th . The s t r u c t u r e of pow-e r i s more n e a r l y m o n o l i t h i c , a nd the l e a d e r s h i p more n e a r l yhomogenous. Th ere ha s been a s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a xa t i o n of t e n -s i o n s w i t h i n t h e p a r t y and b etw ee n t h e p a r t y a nd t h e p o pu l ac e .In t h i s a tmosphere , t h e sudden demise o f Khrushchev shou ldp r e s e n t l e s s of a c r i s i s t o t h e p a r t y t ha n d i d t h e d e a t h ofS t a l i nK h ru shc h ev ' s su c c e s so r s s t a n d to Pnher iF a system ofp a r t y l e a d e r s h i p which has been made t o work wi thou t se r ious

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domest ic c h a l l e n g e s , a n d t o which t h e y a re s t r o n g l y committedp r o f e s s i o n a l l y a nd p e r s o n a l l y .the problem of t h e succ ess ion wou ld appear t o be r educed t o ac o n t e s t f o r c o n t r o l ov er t h e p a r t y m ac hin e, r a t h e r t h a n t o as t r u g g l e b etw een t h e p a r t y ca ree r i s t s and t h e o t h e r powere l i t e s .

Given these c i r c u m s t a n c e s ,.,

The dominant, po si t i on of t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l p a r t y m a c h i n ei n t h e s ys te m of power c re a t e d by Khrushchev does not nec-e s s a r i l y mean t h a t one of t h e p r es e nt c e n t r a l p a r t y secre-t a r i e s would a u t o m a t i c a l l y i n h e r i t K hr ush ch ev ' s p o s i t i o n .I t probab ly does mean, however, t h a t t h e d i s p o s i t i o n of pow-e r i m m e d i a t e l y a f t e r Khrushchev 's dea th would have t o accordw i t h t h e v i e ws of t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e c e n t r a l p a r ty secre-t a r i e s who form an e l i t e w i t h i n an e l i t e .means t h a t a n y o n e a sp i r i n g t o , a o mi na nt p o s i t i o n i n t h e p o s t -Khrushchev le ad er sh ip would seek t o g a i n c o n t r o l of t h e sec-r e t a r i a t and use it as t h e p r i n c i p a l i n s t r u m e n t f o r e n l a r g i n gh i s a u t h o r i t y .

' I t probab ly a l s o

In any case , there r emain tke basic e lemen t s of i n s t a b i l -i t y a n d u n c e r t a i n t y in a n y t r a n s f e r of power i n a t o t a l i t a r i a ns t a t e . The k i n d of au th or i t y Khrushchev possesses is p e r s o n a lt o him a nd n o t r e s i d e n t i n t h e v a r i o u s o f f i c e s h e h o l d s . Sucha u t h o r i t y c a nn ot be i n h e r i t e d b u t m u s t be won u n d e r c o n d i t i o n sof f i e r c e c o mp e ti ti o n, s i n c e no r u l e s e x i s t f o r i t s exerciseo r f o r i t s smooth t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r hands. Hence, Khrushchev'sl i e u t e n a n t s , d e s p i t e t h e advan tages they have over o th e r c om -p e t i t o r s , must face t h e p r o s p e c t of an open race w i t h i n t h e i rr a n k s .

Contenders f o r Khrushchev's MantleA t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e t h e l e a d i n g c o n te n d e rs f o r t h e suc-c e s s i o n a re t o be found among t h e m e m b e r s of t h e Communistpa r t y p res idium- - the 13 f u l l ( v ot in g) m e m b e r s and 10 cand i -da te members who, t oge the r w i t h Khruahchev, w i e l d supr e m epower i n t h e USSR.l y share power, they by no means s t an d on an equa l fo o t in g i nt h e h i e r a r c h y . The i n f l u e n c e t h e y e x e r t v a r i e s w i t h t h e i rt r a i n i n g , e x p e ri e n ce , and a dm i n i s t r a t iv e d u t i e s ; i t a l s o de-pends hea v i l y on t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h Khrushchev.

Although t h e men under Khrushchev nominal-

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Th e r e a p p e a r t o be s e v e ra l f a i r l y d i s t i n c t g r a da t i on s -i n ra n k an d i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n t h e S o v i e t r u l i n g g r o u p . ' Khru-s h c h e v ' s i n n e r c i r c l e o f a d v i so r s a pp e a rs to c o n s i s t of f o u rmen: F i r s t Deputy Pre mie rs An ast as Mikoyan and f i o I Kozlov,who co nc en t r a t e on governmenta l qu es t io ns , and pa r t y secre-t a r i e s Mikh ai l Susl ov and Averky Ar is t ov , who han dle pa r t ya f f a i r s . A le ks ey K ir ic h en k o, f o r m e r l y 8 r a n k i n g p a r t y sec-r e t a r y , was a m e m b e r of t h i s p r i v i l eg e d c i r c l e , b u t b o t h h ean d N ik ol ay B el ya ye v, u n t i l r e c e n t l y p a r t y boss of Kazakhs tan ,h a v e su f f e r e d a s e v e r e d e c l i n e i n s t a t u s . I mm ed ia te ly b elo wt h e s e t op - ra n ki ng f i g u r e s a r e t h e younger members of t h epresidium who a re a l so members o f th e sec re t a r i a t - -N iko layIgnat ov, Leonid Brezhnev, Yekaterinen Furkseva, and Nu r i td inMukhitdinov. Well below these two groups a re t h e l a s t re -maining "Old Bolsheviks ' ' i n t h e presid ium--Kliment Voro shi lov ,Nikolay Shve rnik , and O t t o Kuusinen.t h e r u l i n g g ro up as cand jidate members of t h e pres id ium, cen-t r a l p a r t y s e c r e t a r y P e t r P o sp e l ov , p l a n n i n g b o s s Al e kse yKosygin, and RSFSR Premier Dmitry PoPyansky probahbly havea n ed ge i n i n f l u e n c e b ec au se t h e y r e s i d e i n Moscow. The re-maining candidate members a r e , i n t h e main , r eg iona l o r re-p u b l i c p a r t y s e c r e t a r i e s who a re too f a r removed f r o m t h ece nt er s of decis ion-making t o ex er t much in f lu enc e .

Among t h e t e n men now s e r v i n g t h e i r a p p r e n t i c e s h i p i n

U nl ik e S t a l i n ' s successors , who had lon g and wide ex-per i enc e i n t he r u l i ng g roup , t h e men who se rv e under Khru-shchev a r e , as a r u l e , r e l a t i v e newcomers t o t h e t o p l e v e l .F o r t h e most p a r t , t h e i r m embership i n t h e r u l i n g g ro up h a sd a t e d fro m Kh ru sh ch ev 's p o l i t i c a l v i c t o r y o v er h i s o pp o ne n tsi n J u n e 1957. B ec au se o f t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y b r i e f t e n u r e a tt h e t o p l e v e l and t h e i r almost comple te de fe rence t o Khru-shchev , t he y have had very l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y t o demons t r a t et h e l e a d er s h ip q u a l i t i e s a nd t o deve lop the ne tworks of sup-p o r t e r s n ee de d t o a s s u r e v i c t o r y i n a ny c o n t e s t f o r s up re mepower.

D ur in g t h e p a s t two y e a r s , when t h e t u rn o v e r i n t h eupper r anks of t h e h i e r ar c h y was v i r t u a l l y n i l , i t appearedas i f U r u s h c h e v ' s s u b or d in a te s were beginning t o s t a b i l i z et h e i r p o s i t i o n s and areas of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n t h e l e a d er s h i p.Only one f u l l member of t h e p res id ium (Bu lgan in ) w a s e x p e l l e df rom t h a t body , wh i l e t w o ca nd id at e members (Polyansky andPodgorny) .were added. In t h i s same p e r i o d t h e c o m p o s i t io n of


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I..

t h e s e c r e t a r i a t , a 1 of wh ose members s e r v e j o i n t l y i n t h e 'p r e s i d iu m , re m ai n ed u nc ha ng ed . Th i s s i t u a t i o n c o n t r a s t e ds h a r p l y wi t h t h e u ph e av a ls i n t h e h i e r a r c h y t h a t a t t e n d e dt h e s t r u g g l e f o r power a f t e r S t a l i n ' s d e at h .p e r i o d o f r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y .h i s own pos i t io n , Khrushchev has campaigned fo r t h e re-moval of i n e f f e c t i v e l e a d e r s a nd f o r t h e i n fu s io n i n t o t h eh i e r a r c h y of new blood from t he younger p o l i t i c a l genera -t i o n . Th is campaign, which ga in ed momentum l a s t y e a r , be-gan t o t a k e i t s t o l l among t h e s e n i o r l e a d e r s i n t h e re g io n a land r e p u b l i c h i e r a r c h i e s , t h e sec re t p o l i c e , an d t h e c e n t r a lp a r t y a p p a r a t u s . By t h e e n d o f t h e y e a r it had reached t h et o p l e a d e rs h i p i t s e l f : Pan Kalnberzin , a candidate memberof t h e p r es i d iu m , was r e p l a c e d as La t v i a n f i r s t s e c r e t a r y ,and Belyayev, a f u l l member o f t h e p r e s i d i u m , was s h a r p l yc r i t i c i z e d by K h ru sh ch ev f o r s h o rt co m in g s as Kazak f i r s ts e c r e t a r y . B e l y a y e v was sub seq uen t ly removed from t h i sp o s t a n d a s s i g n e d a l e s s i mp or ta nt p o s i t i o n i n t h e r e g i o n a lp a r t y h i e r a r c h y . These e v e n t s h ig hl ig ht t h e f a c t t h a t e ve nth os e on whom Khrushchev has coun te d f o r su ppo r t d u r in g h i sr i s e t o power can no lo ng er r e s t on t h e i r l a u r e l s .

The recent downgrading of Kir ichenko , a f u l l m e m b e r oft h e presidum and a m e m b e r of t h e s e c r e t a r i a t , shows d ramat i ca l -l y t h e u n s t a b l e n a t u r e o f t h e p o s i t i o n s h e l d b y K hr ush ch e v' ss u b o r d i n a t e s . A long- t ime Ukra in ian pro te ge of Khrushchevwho a s ce nd ed r a p i d l y i n t h e h i e r a r c h y o n h i s p a t r o n ' s coatt a i l s , Kir ichenko w a s g e n e r a l l y c o n s id e r e d o ne of t h e t w o o rt h r e e t o p r an k in g f i g u r e s i n t h e l e a d e r s h i p a f t e r K hru sh ch ev ,as w e l l as a m os t pr o m is i n g c a n d i d a t e f o r t h e su c c e s s i o n .N o t o n l y d i d he appear t o p o s s e s s t h e r e q u i s i t e q u a l i t i e s ofy o u th , t o u g h ne s s , a nd a b i l i t y , b u t he a l s o seemed t o be en-t r e n c he d s e c u r e l y i n t h e h i e r a r c h y as Khrushchev 's unders tudyi n t h e s e c r e t a r i a t . Y e t , d e s p i t e these o ut s t an d in g p o l i t i c a lq u a l i f i c a t i o n s , he was s u dd e nl y t r a n s f e r r e d t o a r e l a t i v e l ym in or r e g i o n a l p a r t y p o s t . W hile h i s s t a t u s i n t h e p re s id iu m ,l i k e t h a t of Kalnberz in and Be lyayev , r emains i n doub t , hec l e a r l y h as s u f f e r e d a s e r io u s p o l i t i c a l r e v e rs a l , s i n c e i nh i s r e g i o n a l p o s t he can no long er pe r fo rm t h e v i t a l d u t i e sof a c e n t r a l p a r t y s e c r e t a r y .

Recent eve nt s , however , have brought an end t o t h i sS i n c e t h e c o n s o l i d a t i o n o f

The r e c e n t p o l i t i c a l s ha ke -u ps i n t h e USSR r e f l e c t t h ep r e s s u r e s a t work w i t h i n t h e h i e r a r c h y . W hile c o n t i n u i n g t o

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i n s i s t on more v i g or o u s l e a d e r s h i p fro m h i s l i e u t e n a n t s ,Khrushchev h a s he l d o u t p romises o f advancement t o the young-e r p o l i t i c a l g en e r a t i o n k n o ck in g on t h e d o o r .when c r i t i c i z i n g B e ly ay ev , " F r i e n d s h ip is o n e t h in g , and 'work is a n o t h e r . . . . I t i s q u i t e n o r m a l t o r e p l a c e a workeru n a b l e t o cope w i th h i s t a s k w i th a more ab l e person and amore ex p e r i en ced o r g a n i ze r . " By m ak in g e f f i c i en cy i n p e r -formance a major, i f n o t t h e most i m po r ta n t, c r i t e r i o n f o rs u c c e s s or f a i l u r e , K h r u s h c h e v has g e n e r a t e d p r e s s u r e s t h a tare bound t o l e a d ' t o f u r t h e r c h a ng es i n t h e t o p command.

As he p u t it

The road appears t o h av e be en c l e a r e d f o r t h e p e a c e f u lr e t i r e m e n t of t h e o l d e r m e m b e r s of t h e p r e s id iu m f r o m a c t i v ep o l i t i c a l l i f e . Korotchenko ( 6 6 ) , K aln b e r z in ( 6 7 ) , V o r o s h i l o v(79) , S h v e r n ik ( 7 2 ) , and Kuusinen (79) have a l l p a ss e d t h e i rpr ime and can be ex p ec t ed t o b e r e p l a c e d by yo un ge r men. Eveni f t h e o l d e r f i g u r e s sh o ul d r e t a i n t h e i r p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n su n t i l t h e n e x t p a r t y c o n g r es s s ch e du l ed n e x t y e a r , t h e y wo uld,by r eason of ag e alone, be o u t of t h e r u n ni n g f o r t h e s uc -c e s s i o n . P o s p el o v , i n h i s m id - s ix t i e s , w o u ld a l s o appear t ob e s u t of t h e r un n in g by r e a s o n of h i s l ack of e x p e r i e n c ei n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a nd p e rs o n ne l work.

Mikoyan, although a l s o i n h i s m i d -s i xt i e s, e n j oy s as t r o n g e r p o s i t i o n t h a n t h e o t h e r o l d e r m e m b e r s of t h e p r e s i d i u m .He is s eco n d o n ly t o K hr us hc he v i n p r e s t i g e a nd i n f l u e n c e a n da c t s a s one of K h ru sh ch e v' s p r i n c i p a l c o n f i d a n t s i n b o t h f o r -e i g n a n d domestic a f f a i r s . A l s o , apa r t from Khrushchev, h eis t h e a b l e s t and m o s t w id e ly ex p e r i en ced p o l i t i c i an am o n g t h es u r v i v e r s of S t a l i n ' s p o l i t b u r o . M ore ov er, h e i s a respectedf i g u r e among b o t h p a s t y l eade r s and i n f l u e n t i a l q u a r t e r s oft h e governmenta l bureaucracy .f i f t i e s s ta n d o u t as t h e s t r o n g e s t c o n t en d e rs i n t h e l o n g r u n .Same of t h e members 'o f t h i s age g roup a re l i k e l y t o r e t a i ns t r o n g p o t e n t i a l i n f l u e nc e e ven i f t h e S u cces s io n i s p o s t -poned f o r seve ra l more y e a r s or B f t h e s t r u g g l e f o r s u c c e s s i o na f t e r Khrushchev ' s dea th i s pro longed . In t e r m s of careerdeve lopment , the members of t h i s g r o u p have much i n common.They a l l be long t o t h e p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y g e n e r a t i o n o f p a r t ymembers who have d i s t i n g u i s h e d t h e m se l v e s by t h e i r ad m in i s t r a -t i v e and o r g a n i z a t io n a l t a l e n t s . Most of them a re p a r t y career-i s t s s p e c i a l i z i n g i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l management. P r es i di u mmember Sus lov is t h e o n l y th e o r e t a ci a n i n t h e g r o u p p an d o n ly

The members of t h e ru l i ng g roup now i n t h e i r f o q t i e s o r

\

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. . .,. .

Kosygin and Pervuk hin , bo th ca nd id ate members , t r a ce t h e i rca ree r s back t o t h e s t a t e economic bu re au cr ac y. With t h ee x c e p t i o n o f P e rv u k hi n , whose p o l i t i c a l f o r t u n e s h a ve v a r i e ds h a r p l y i n t h e p o s t -S t a l i n p e ri o d, a l l h av e u n t i l r e c e n t l yb ee n b e n e f i c i a r i e s o f K h ru shc h ev 's r i s e t o power.The younger members of t h e pres id ium a re d i s t i n g u i s h e dfro m o ne a n o t h e r by t h e n a t u r e of t h e i r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e as-s i g n m e n ts . The r e l a t i v e i m po r ta n ce o f t h e se a s s i g n m e nt s ,i n terms of access t o t h e main l e ve r s o f power and oppor tu n i -t i e s f o r b u i l d i n g up p e r s o n al f o l l o w i n g s , h a s a c o n s i d e r a b l eb e a r i n g on t h e c o n t e n d e r s ' p r o s p e c t s . F r o m t h e s t a n d p o i n tof t h e i r ass ign men ts, t h e younger members of t h e p r e s i d i u mmay be d i v i d e d i n t o t h e f o l l ow i n g gr o up s :1. C e n t r a l p a r t y sec re t a r i e s -- A r i s t o v ( 5 7 ) , Brezhnev(54) , F u r t s e v a (50), Pgnatov (59),Mukhitdinov (43) and Suslov (58) .2 . T e r r i t o r i a l p a r t y s e c r e t a r i e s -- Belyayev ( 54 ) ,Kir ichenko (52), K i r i l e n k o ( 54 ) ,Mazurov (46) Mzhavanadze (58) , andPodgorny (57) .

( 5 6 ) , Pervukhin (56), and Polyansky3 . Governmenta l admin i s t r a to r s -- Kozlov ( 5 2 ) , Kosggin(43) .

Of t h e t h r e e groups , t h e c e n t r a l p a r t y s ec r e t a r i e s ap -p e a r t o h a v e t h e b e s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r b u i l d i n g u p pe r s o n alf o l l o w i n g s i n t h e major p a r t y o r g a n s . A s members of t h e sec-r e t a r i a t , t h e y a re concerned w i t h t h e m ac hi ne t h a t has t h eg r e a t e s t amount of pa t ronage t o d i sp e n se . F u r t h e r m o r e , asf u l l members o f t h e p r e s id i u m w i t h a s s i g n m e nt s i n Moscow--as t a t u s enjoyed by Kozlov a lo ne among t h e younger le ad er s whoa re n o t s e c r e t a r i e s - - t h e y h av e a c o n s i d e r a b l e share i n t h edecis ion-making process .

The s e c r e t a r i a t members who concentrate on o r g a n i z a t i o n a la nd p e r s o n ne l q u e s t i o n s a f f e c t i n g t h e par ty and government arep ro ba bl y b e t t e r s i t u a t e d f c r a ny t e s t of s t r e n g t h t h a n t h o s ewhose r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f a l l i n o t h e r f i e l d s . P a rt y s e c r e t a r i e sAr is t ov , Igna tov , and Brezhnev , men wi th b road exp er i e nce i np a r t y l e a d e r s h ip a t t h e r e g i o n a l a nd r e p u b l i c l e v e l s , a pp e art o be t h e l e a d i n g c o nt e n d e rs w i t h i n t h e s e c r e t a r ia t a t t h ep r e s e n t t i m e . They belong t o t h e b r ee d of t o u g h , a g g r e s s i v e ,mul t icompetent op er a t or s who have formed t h e bulwark of Khru-s h c h e v ' s s u p p o r t i n t h e p a r t y a nd who haw? r i s e n r a p id l y i nt h e h i e r a r c h y u n de r h i s p a t ro n a ge .

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Aristov now occupies a pivotal-position in the leader-ship, serving as Khrushchev's deputy in the.RSFSR partybureau. This is the organ which exercises central contrdlover-party affairs in the Russian Republic, by far the mostimportant republic. This post offers unique opportunitiesfor building up a personal following among party careeristsand influential party members in the RSFSR. Ignatov andBrezhnev also bear watching, They carried out importanttrouble-shooting assignments for Khrushchev early in thepost-Stalin period--1gnatov in Leningrad and Brezhnev inKazakhstan--and they now oversee key sectors of the economy:Ignatov supervises agriculture; Brezhnev, heavy industry.Ignatov has made a particularly strong comeback since hisreturn to full-time work in the secretariat late Past year.On two recent occasions, for example, he was ranked ahead ofAristov in the press listings--usually a good indicator ofstatus. BrBzhnev, a wartime political officer in the armedforces in the Ukraine, has also figured prominently in publicfunctions. It is believed that one of his responsibilitieshas been for party work in the armed forces and paramilitaryorganizations.

Among the remaining central party secretaries, Furtsevaand Mukhitdinov can probably be counted out of the runningon grounds of:sex and nationality, respectively. The latter,an Uzbek, has served primarily as an instrument of Khrushchev'sdiplomacy in the Moslem world. Finally, there is Suslov, theranking member ofthe secretariat in terms of tenure. He en-j oys considerable prestige and influence in the leadership,operating as the presidium specialist in ideological affairsand international Communist activities. He appears to be .handicapped, however, b'y a colorless personality and by lackof experience in theznore important sectors of pasty work.Me would thus appear to be ill-equipped to maneuver for alarger share of power than he now holds.

The second group of younger presidium members, the re-gional or republic party secretaries, are not consideredserious contenders for the succession at present. Kirichenkoand Belyayev, the most prominent figures in this group, occupylower rungs in the ladder of status. Most of the others havehad limited experience outside their present bailiwicks andhence little opportunity for empire-building. While the ter-ritorial party posts have traditionally served as steps tohigher office, they are too far removed from the centers of

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. .power t o g r a n t t h e i r incumbents much le ve ra ge a t t h e n a t io n -a l l e v e l . As l ong as t h e s e men a r e a s s i g n e d t o t h e i r p r e s e n tp o s t s , t h e r e i s no p o i n t i n s p e c u l a t i n g a bo ut t h e i r p r o s p e c t s .

I

The t h i r d group of younger presid i um m e m b e r s , t h e govern-m e nt a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , does c o n t a i n two p r o m is i n g c o n t e n d e r sfor t h e su c c e s s i o n , F i r s t D e pu ty Pr e m i er K oz lo v a nd RSFSRPremier Polyansky. Both are p a r t y ca ree r i s t s who h a v e r i s e nv e ry r a p i d l y i n t h e hierarchy--Kozlov was f o r me r l y p a r t y b o s sof t h e Leningrad area ; Polyansky he ld s e c r e t a r i a l p o s ts i nt h e Uk ra in e and RSFSR--and b o th are r e l a t i v e newcomers i nt h e government bure auc racy . Kozlov l e f t Leningrad i n Decem-ber 1957 t o become RSFSR premier and was r e p l a c e d by Polyanskyt h r ee months l a t e r when he became f i r s t depu ty p remie r underKhrushchev. The ass ign men t of p a r t y c a r e e r f s t s to l e a d i n gp o s i t i o n s Im the government is p a r t of Khrushchev ' s po l i c y o fr u l i n g t h r o u g h d o mi n at i on by t h e p a r t y , b u t i t a l s o r e f l e c t st h e i nc rea se d impor tance Rhrushchev a t t aches t o t h e government.

The career p r o s p e c t s of Kozlov and Polyansky do not ap-p e a r t o h av e b ee n r e t a r ded by t h e i r ass ignment s t o govern-ment work . Both men still r e t a i n i mp or ta nt d i r e c t a n d i n d i -r e c t t i e s w i t h t h e pa r t y mach ine : Po lyansky and t w o ofKOZ~OV'S former Leningrad assoc ia t es a re members of t h e pow-e r f u l RSFSR p a r t y b u r ea u , Kozlov i n p a r t i c u l a r h a s emerged -as a prominen t f igu re i n t h e n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l s ce ne , e nj oy -i n g c l o s e w ork in g r e l a t i o n s w i t h Khrushchev and benef i t t i ngf r o m t h e l a t t e r ' s p a t r o n a g e .

Pervukh in , t h e S o v i e t ambassador t o E a s t Germany, andKosygin, a depu ty p r em ie r and c h i e f of Gosplan , do n o t a p p e a rt o have good p rospec t s in t h e c o m p e t i t i o n fo r t h e s u c c e s s i o n .Pervukh in h a s s u f f e r e d a s h a r p d e c li n e i n s t a t u s s i n c e h i sinvolvement w i t h t h e defeated opponents of Khrushchev, andh i s chances fo r r e c o v e r i n g l o s t g ro un d a re s l i m . Kosyginhas come i n to p rominence r e c e n t l y as a r e s u l t of h i s s p e c i a l -i zed a d m i n i s t ra t i v e t a l e n t s , r a the r t h a n for h i s prowess asa p o l i t i c i a n . Even though he may be c a l l e d on t o o cc up y al a r g e r r o l e in t h e regime, he seems d e s t i n e d t o remain amongt h e s e co n da r y f i g u r e s , whose t a l e n t s a re needed by t h e po-l i ' t i c i a n s i n power t o c a r r y o u t t h e complex p r a c t i c a l t a sksof managing t h e n a t i o n .

The OutlookT he r e c e n t p o l i t i c a l ch an ge s h av e h i g h l i g h t e d t h e un-c e r t a i n t i e s c o nf ro n ti ng t h e c o n t e n d e r s f o r s u c c e s s i on . A f t e r

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_ .c.

a r

. .

l a t i v l y q u i e s c e nt p e r io d of n e a r l y two y e a r s , c h a n g ehas once more become t h e or de r of t h e d ay i n t h e u pp er r a n k sof t h e hi er ar ch y. The men who won h i gh p l a c e s i n t h e r eg im et h r o u g h a l l e g i a n c e t o Khrushchev a re now under heavy pres-sure f rom above and below t o d e m o n s t r a t e o t h e r t a l e n t s asw e l l . In order t o s u r v i v e t h e r ug g ed t e s t ahead , the y mus tm a i n t a i n u n swe rv in g l o y a l t y t o Khrushehev and a t t h e samet i m e prove t o be c a p a b l e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . Above a l l , i nmaneuvering f o r f a v o r a nd i n f l u e n c e , K h ru shc h ev ' s l i e u t e n -a n t s m us t a v o i d s t a k i n g p r e m at u re claims on t h e s u c c e s i o n .

0 n : p r e s e n t e v id e nc e , i t i s i m p o ss i b l e t o p r e d i c t t h e 'outcome of any p e r s b n a l c o n t e s t f o r supreme power a f t e r Khru-s h e h e v v s d e a th . The r e c en t r e s h u f f l i n g i n t h e h i e r a r c h yc l e a r l y u p s e t t h e power r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e men aroundKhrushchev and l e f t t h e i s s u e of t h e s u c c e s s i o n n o t a b l y ob-scure . A l though t h e career p r o s p e c t s of s o m e of t h e y ou ng erl ea de r s - -pa r t i cu l a r l y Koz lov and Ar is tov- - appear t o havebeen enhanced b y t h e r e c e n t e v e n ts , these p e r s o n a l gainsmay not be s t a b l e . Against t h e background of t h e p r e s s u r e sa l r e a d y at work i n S ov ie t p o l i t i c a l l i f e , t h e r e i s e v e r yr e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t before ghrushchev depar t s f rom t h esce ne , new f i gu re s w i l l emerge i n t o pr om in en ce i n t h e h i e r -a r c h y , r e p l a c i n g t h e o lde r men a n d f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t i n g t h ei s s u e of t h e su c c e s s i o n .D e s p i t e t h e g r a d a t i o n s of r a n k a n d i n f l u e n c e s e p a r a t i n gt h e men a rou nd Khrushehev, no s i n g l e i n d i v i d u a l now i s in ap o s i t i o n t o assume a l l h i s powers. Indeed, it is h i g h l yd o u b t f u l wh e th e r any of his s u b o r d i n a t e s , i f Khrushchev weret o d i e now, c o u l d i n d ep e n d e n tl y a t t a i n su c h a p o s i t i o n i nt h e n ea r f u t u r e .I n t h e i n t e r e s t of promoting a smooth and o rder ly sue-cession , Khrushchev m i g h t seek t o f o s t e r t h e career p r o s p e c t sof one of h i s f a v o r i t e s . I n a p r i v a t e c o n v e r sa t i on l a s t y e a rh e said t h a t bo th he and Mikoyan f avo red Kozlov as h i s s uc-cessor, and h e f l a t l y re jec ted Kir ichenko as a s u i t a b l e c an di -date . Subsequent developments--Kozlovvs in cr ea se d prominencein p u bl ic a f f a i r s , t h e promotion of some of h i s former Lenin-grad assoc ia tes t o i n f l u e n t i a l p o s i t i on s , t h e d em ot io n o f 'K i r i chenko , and t h e e c l i p s e of s e v e r a l o t h e r f i g u r e s w i t hUkrainian backgrounds--appear t o g i v e s u b s t a n c e t o Khrushchev'sremarks. Although t h e ev idence is inconclusive, IChrushchevmay be m a n i p ul a t i ng t h e su c c e s s i o n i n K o z lo v 's f a v o r .

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I

Whether Khrushchev w i l l a c t u a l l y a l lo w K o zlo v o r anyoneelse t o deve lop a p o s i t i o n as h e i r a p p a r e n t r e m a i n s t o b e s e e n .To e n s u r e a smooth succession , Khrushchev would have t o re-l i n q u i s h a c o n s i d e r a b l e p a r t o f h i s own power t o h i s c ho se nh e i r ; t h i s would pe rm it t h e l a t t e r t o r e p l a c e t h e s e c on d ar yf i g u r e s c r e a t e d by K h ru sh ch ev w i t h men of h i s own choos ing .Even if su c h a d e l i c a t e p r o c e ss of p o l i t i c a l change werec a r r i e d o u t g r a d u a l l y , i t would s t i l l be an ex t r emely hazardouse n t e r p r i s e , t h r e a t e n i n g e v e n t u a l l y t o imper i l Khrushchev ' s ownp o s i t i o n . I t is d o u b t f u l w he th er a n y t r a n s i t i o n a l a r ra n g em e n tsl a i d down b y K hru sh ch ev t h a t f e l l sh o r t of a n a c t u a l t r a n s f e rof supreme power from h i s h an ds c ou l d c a r r y s u f f i c i e n t f o r c et o s u r v i v e h i s p a s s i ng from t h e s c e n e .

Whatever th e long- term pr os pe cts for t h e s u c ce s s io n - -w hi ch i n a n y case depend on con t ing enc ies t h a t canno t now b ef o r e se en - - t h e sh o r t 2 t e r m o u t l o o k a p p e a r s t o b e f a i r l y c l e a r .If Rhrushchev shou ld d ie OT become in ca pa c i t a t e d i n t h e n e a rf u t u r e , h i s successo r s wou ld almost c e r t a i n l y have t o s h a r ei n t h e d i sp o s i t i o n of h i s legac y. The formula of " c o l l e c t i v el e a d e r s h i p , " i n d i s u s e d u ri n g t h e p e r i o d of Khrushchev 's SUApremacy, would proba bly ag ai n be r e v i v e d as a symbol ofl e g i t i m a c y r e f l e c t i n g t h e d i v id e d and u n ce r t a in d i s t r i b u t i o nof power. Although KhrushchevOs s uc ce ss or s would pro bab ly beu n i t e d i n t h e i r i n t e n t t o d eny a ny s i n g l e i n d i v i d u a l f u l l pow-e r , t h e y m i g ht a c c e p t a t r a n s i t i o n a l f i g u r e w it h l i m i t e d au-t h o r i t y . Mikoyan wou ld qu a l i f y as such a c a n d i d a t e a n d c o u l dc o n c e i v a b l y emerge a s t h e nominal head of a c a r e t a k e r r e g i m ew h i l e a s t r u g g l e f o r primacy was being waged among t h e youngermembers o f th e h ie r a rch y .

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Caesar 26 - The Succession ot Khruschev